The Need for International Cooperation between Israel and Other Middle East Nations to Protect the Jordan River Landscape

The Jordan River, also referred to as Nahr Al Sharieat in Arabic, is a long river in the Middle East that flows from north to south through the Sea of Galilee to the Dead Sea. The Jordan River is bordered by the Golan Heights and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan in the east and by Israel and the Palestinian West Bank (Judea and Samaria) in the west. Soil tunnels, including those in the Jordan River watershed and on the Israel, Syria, and Lebanon borders, have a long history of use for warfare, as invasion pathways, smuggling, and storage of rockets, missiles and ordnance and are causes of serious political tension between the countries. Soil tunnel construction and destruction often has adverse environmental and human health impacts in the Jordan River landscape. Due to agricultural wastes, the discharge of untreated sewage, and diversion of saline springs into the river water there has been serious deterioration in the water quality in the lower courses of the Jordan River. The primary objective of this research is to encourage the development of a multi-country clean-up, mitigation, and protection plan for the Jordan River.

The Upper Jordan River Algal Communities are Evidence of Long-Term Climatic and Anthropogenic Impacts

Spatial and temporal algal diversity changes were studied in the major drinking water source of Israel - the Upper Jordan River. During 2006-2009, we found 232 species and infraspecies of algae and cyanobacteria: 85 of which were new for the Upper Jordan River Basin including three new for Israel. During many years of study of the Upper Jordan River, we collected information for the database of algal diversity. Historical analysis from 1883 to 2009 shows fluctuation of the whole algal diversity. Environmental indicator species show peaks in 1951, 1965, 1978, and 2009. Salinity impact was found in 1938 and 2000;acidification was detected in 1938, 1996, and 2000, and organic pollution, in 1996. Therefore, we can conclude that 1938, 1996, and 2000 were critical periods for the Upper Jordan River ecosystem. Indication of the trophic status shows stress of organic pollution since the 1970s, which was marked by dramatic increases in eutraphentic and hypereutraphentic species. The present analysis shows three peaks in the fluctuation in diversity throughout the river canal, which correlated with the organic pollution impact from the Masade village effluence in the middle reaches and near Lake Kinneret. Pollution was significant in rainy winters and stimulated species diversity development. The different approaches in comparing diversity in each river of the Upper Jordan Basin revealed that hydrology is a major regulating factor in species composition of the algal communities, which were formed under the influence of regional climatic factors. Therefore, the river can be highlighted as a natural system with high buffering and a self-purification capacity at the present time.

A Securitization-Perspective Analysis of Water Disputes in the Jordan River Basin

Severe water shortage and uneven water distribution plague countries in the Middle East, especially the Jordan River Basin. As a strategic resource with competitive political nature, water resources are closely related to national security, and become the core resource arena that countries along the river basin compete for. This study argues that under the combined effect of the natural factors of water shortage, the geographical factors of uneven distribution of rivers across boundaries, and the subjective factors of water politics (the unfair setting of rules for water allocation), water disputes in the Middle East have become obstacles to regional peace, and the serious uneven distribution of water is the root cause of regional water disputes. Neither the historical water conflicts nor the existing water cooperation framework has solved the problem of balanced water distribution, which makes the people in basin countries directly face the crisis of survival rights and national security, and lays the fuse for the outbreak of regional water disputes and even future water wars. This study proposes the concept and analytical framework of “water securitization” based on securitization theory, and applies it to the Jordan River Basin, to analyze the reasons for the uneven distribution of water resources in the Middle East. The power-dominant state with asymmetric power in the river basin obtains the status of water hegemony by securitizing water, realizing the self-interested distribution of water resources, whichleads to the uneven distribution of water resources, and ultimately leads to the outbreak of conflicts and disputes. Specifically, it mainly adopts three mechanisms of discursive securitization, operational securitization, and institutional securitization. Looking to the future, it is difficult to successfully resolve water disputes in the Middle East in the short term, and a “de-securitization” approach is particularly important in resolving water disputes and easing regional security tension. Only by adopting a multi-field joint strategy can it provide the possibility to effectively resolve water disputes in the Jordan River Basin.

Characterizing, Monitoring and Forecasting of Drought in Jordan River Basin

Jordan is very vulnerable to drought because of its location in the arid to semi-arid part of the Middle East. Droughts coupled with water scarcity are becoming a serious threat to the economic growth, social cohesion and political stability. Rainfall time series from four rain stations covering the Jordan River Basin were analyzed for drought characterization and forecasting using standardized precipitation index (SPI), Markov chain and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The 7-year moving average of Amman data showed a decreasing trend while data from the other three stations were stable or showed an increasing trend. The frequency analysis indicated 2-year return period for near zero SPI values while the return period for moderate drought was 7 years. Successive droughts had occurred at least three times during the past 40 years. Severe droughts are expected once every 20 - 25 year period at all rain stations. The extreme droughts were rare events with return periods between 80 and 115 years. There are equal occurrence probabilities for drought and wet conditions in any given year, irrespective, of the condition in the previous year. The results showed that ARIMA model was successful in predicting the overall statistics with a given period at annual scales. The overall number of predicted/observed droughts during the validation periods were 2/2 severe droughts for Amman station and, 0/1, 1/1, 0/1 extreme droughts for Amman, Irbid and Mafraq stations, respectively. In addition, the ARIMA model also predicted 3 out of 4 actual moderate droughts for Amman and Mafraq stations. It was concluded that early warning of developing droughts can be deduced form the monthly Markov transitional probabilities. ARIMA models can be used as a forecasting tool of the future drought trends. Using the first and second order Markov probabilities can complement the ARIMA predictions.

GIS-Based Morphometric Analysis of Fourth-Order Sub-Basins of the Zerqa River (Northern Jordan) Using Multivariate Statistical Techniques

The present study attempts to examine the morphometric characteristics and relationships of 43 fourth-order sub-basins over the Zerqa River watershed, using ASTER DEM, GIS and multivariate statistics. To achieve these objectives, Principal Component Analysis was utilized to reduce the 26 parameters into six major components which accounted for 79.3% of the total variance explained by the original morphometric variables. Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (CA) (Ward’s method) has been applied to classify the 43 sub-basins based on different types of morphometric parameters. Four groups of sub-watersheds were identified and characterized by different morphometric properties. The patterns of spatial distribution of cluster groups were determined based on lithological, structure and tectonics, uplifting, and rejuvenation processes.

Assessment of Morphometric Characteristics of Wadi Al-Shumar Catchment in Jordan

The Geographic information system and Aster DEM data with 30 m resolution have been used for the derivation of the morphometric parameters of the Al-Shumar watershed in Jordan. It is an area of 330 km2, and it has seven sub-catchments. The drainage pattern of the watershed shows a dendritic and parallel pattern, with a drainage density value of 1.49 - 1.85 km/km2. The bifurcation value of the sub-watersheds varies from 2.679 to 4.434, which reveals homogeneous drainage networks that formed on rocks when the influence of geologic structure on the stream network is negligible. The form factor value is near the rectangular shape except for the Al-Shiah and Al-Zarnouk watershed, these values are close to the circular shape and therefore they are vulnerable to flood risk in case of frequent rainfall events. The results are important in understanding the process of rainfall-runoff in Dryland environments and in adaptation of suitable water management practices on the sub-catchment level.

On The Biology of Tilapia zillii (Gervais1848) in Lake Kinneret (Israel)

Fish (mostly Tilapia zillii), (TZ), mass mortality in Lake Kinneret initiated a study of the biology of TZ in Lake Kinneret. The study included several aspects: spawning and nesting behavior, feeding habits, the status of TZ in the Kinneret fishery and temperature tolerance. The merit of TZ to commercial landing fishery is negligible, but this specimen is one of the most common fishes in the lake. Several environmental factors are considered as promoters of the epilimnetic temperature decline: Jordan water inputs in winter season as a heat source parameter. ENSO (EL-NI&#209O/Southern Oscillation) acts as a cooling enhancement factor. Supportive data on the impact of ENSO were found in two terrestrial agricultural monitors in the northern and southern parts of the drainage basin. Gut content analysis of young fingerlings and an adult TZ specimen, indicated the significant contribution of benthic sources which are common in the shallows. The great adaptive capabilities of breeding TZ with various bottom habitats are demonstrated.

约旦河跨境水冲突的地缘环境研究

随着气候变化、人口增长和经济发展,全球水资源供需矛盾日益突出,国际河流跨境水冲突不断加剧。地处中东的约旦河是世界上跨境水冲突最严重的河流。1948—2008年约旦河跨境水冲突事件数量占全球总量的1/5,战争性跨境水冲突数量占同级别总量的2/3。本文以地缘价值、地缘关系和地缘结构为模块构建国际河流跨境水冲突地缘环境分析框架,考察约旦河跨境水冲突事件的时空演化及其形成的地缘机制。研究发现,约旦河跨境水冲突的地缘目标集中于水资源战略要地,且按水资源地“主要→核心→次要”空间转移;跨境水冲突事件在时序上呈现从以色列争夺水权为主向域内阿拉伯国家讨还水权为主演化;跨境水冲突地缘体结构中以色列主动发起的跨境水冲突占六成多,域内阿拉伯国家和域外地缘体发起的各约占二成。基于地缘环境分析框架的研究得出以下结论:约旦河流域区位的地缘价值吸引域外大国直接介入,促成跨境水冲突向有利于美国—以色列利益的方向发展;域内地缘体的“水资源地”竞争地缘关系强于“水量”竞争地缘关系,对约旦河跨境水冲突具有强化作用;以色列作为约旦河地缘结构中的水霸权,对该流域跨境水冲突的基本态势和时空分布格局具有主导作用。