Incorporation of GIS Based Program into Hydraulic Model for Water Level Modeling on River Basin

Water resources management usually requires that hydraulic, ecological, and hydrological models be linked. The Hy- drologic Engineering Center River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) hydraulic model and the Hydrologic Engineering Center Geospatial River Analysis System (HEC-GEORAS), imitates flow and water profiles in the Neka river basin’s downstream flood plain. Hydrograph phases studied during the flood seasons of 1986-1999 and from 2002-2004 were used to calibrate and verify the hydraulic model respectively. Simulations of peak flood stages and hydrographs’ evaluations are congruent with studies and observations, with the former showing mean square errors between 4.8 - 10 cm. HECRAS calculations and forecast flood water levels. Nash-Sutcliffe effectiveness (CR3) is more than 0.92 along with elevated levels of water which were created with some effectiveness (CR5) of 0.94 for the validation period. The coupled two models show good performance in the water level modeling.

Relationship Between Changes of River-lake Networks and Water Levels in Typical Regions of Taihu Lake Basin,China

The typical regions of the Taihu Lake Basin,China,were selected to analyze the variation characteristics of river-lake networks under intensive human activities.The characteristics of the fractal dimension of river networks and lakes for different periods were investigated and the influences of river system evolution on water level changes were further explored through the comparison of their fractal characters.The results are as follows:1) River network development of the study area is becoming more monotonous and more simple;the number of lakes is reducing significantly,and the water surface ratio has dropped significantly since the 1980s.2) The box dimension of the river networks in all the cities of the study area decreased slowly from the 1960s to the 1980s,while the decrease was significant from the 1980s to the 2000s.The variations of lake correlation dimension are similar to those of the river network box dimensions.This is unfavorable for the storage capacity of the river networks and lakes.3) The Hurst exponents of water levels were all between 0.5 and 1.0 from the 1960s to the 1980s,while decreased in the 2000s,indicating the decline in persistence and increase in the complexity of water level series.The paper draws a conclusion that the relationship between the fractal dimension of river-lake networks and the Hurst exponents of the water level series can reveal the impacts of river system changes on flood disasters to some extent:the disappearance of river networks and lakes will increase the possibility of flood occurrence.

Estimation of Peak Water Level in Pearl River Estuary under the Background of Sea Level Rise

[Objective] The study aimed to predict the peak water level in Pearl River Estuary under the background of sea level rise. [Method] The changing trends of peak water level at Denglongshan station and Hengmen station were analyzed firstly on the basis of regression models, and then sea level rise in Pearl River Estuary in 2050 was predicted to estimate the 1-in-50-year peak water level in the same year. [Result] Regression analyses showed that the increasing rate of peak water level over past years was 6.3 mm/a at Denglongshan station and 5.8 mm/a at Hengmen station. In addition, if sea level will rise by 20, 30 and 60 cm respectively in 2050, it was predicted that the 1-in-50-year peak water level will reach 3.04, 3.14 and 3.44 m at Denglongshan station, and 3.19, 3.29 and 3.59 m at Hengmen station separately. [Conclusion] The estimation of peak water level in Pearl River Estuary could provide theoretical references for water resources planning.

Projection of the Zhujiang(Pearl) River Delta's potential submerged area due to sea level rise during the 21st century based on CMIP5 simulations

Projections of potential submerged area due to sea level rise are helpful for improving understanding of the influence of ongoing global warming on coastal areas. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method is used to adaptively decompose the sea level time series in order to extract the secular trend component. Then the linear relationship between the global mean sea level （GMSL） change and the Zhujiang （Pearl） River Delta （PRD） sea level change is calculated： an increase of 1.0 m in the GMSL corresponds to a 1.3 m （uncertainty interval from 1.25 to 1.46 m） increase in the PRD. Based on this relationship and the GMSL rise projected by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios （representative concentration pathways, or RCPs, from low to high emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5）, the PRD sea level is calculated and projected for the period 2006-2100. By around the year 2050, the PRD sea level will rise 0.29 （0.21 to 0.40） m under RCP2.6, 0.31 （0.22 to 0.42） m under RCP4.5, and 0.34 （0.25 to 0.46） m under RCP8.5, respectively. By 2100, it will rise 0.59 （0.36 to 0.88） m, 0.71 （0.47 to 1.02） m, and 1.0 （0.68 to 1.41） m, respectively. In addition, considering the extreme value of relative sea level due to land subsidence （i.e., 0.20 m） and that obtained from intermonthly variability （i.e., 0.33 m）, the PRD sea level will rise 1.94 m by the year 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario with the upper uncertainty level （i.e., 1.41 m）. Accordingly, the potential submerged area is 8.57x103 km2 for the PRD, about 1.3 times its present area.

Late Quaternary diatom and sea level changes in estuarine plain of the Jiulong River

Four units and twenty-four zones of diatom have been discerned in the Borehole ZK5 in the estuarine plain of the Jiulong River, Fujian Province. Comprehensive analysis of these, together with microbiological assemblages and age determinations in some other boreholes, shows that during the Late Wurm Glacial, sea level of the study area rose and fell frequently, but had principally been in the environments of estuary-bay. This mainly resulted from the tectonic subouction. In this period 3 low sea levels occurred. at 18, 16 and 12 kaBP respectively. During Holocene, sea weter intruded massively and the sea level over the transgnaion maximum had been 5-10 m higher than that of the present.

SEA LEVEL RISE OF THE ZHUJIANG RIVER DELTA AND NEOTECTONICS

A linear regression analysis of 28 selected tide-gauge stations of the Zhujiang Estuary shows that there has been a tendency of local sea level rise at a rate of 2.028 mm per year. The origin of the variation is significantly attributed to the local tectonic movement of discrepant fault-block. Based on this, four types of relative local sea level changes are classified. According to calculation, half of the fertile land, or 800 km2 of the delta plain will have been submerged by sea water by about 2040. This will yield a significant influence on the economic construction and human activities.

Change of Annual Extreme Water Levels and Correlation with River Discharges in the Middle-lower Yangtze River: Characteristics and Possible Affecting Factors

As one of the fastest developing regions in China, the middle-lower Yangtze River(MLYR) is vulnerable to floods and droughts. With obtained time series of annual highest water level(HWL), annual lowest water level(LWL) and the corresponding river discharges from three gauging stations in MLYR that covering the period 1987–2011, the current study evaluated the change characteristics of annual extreme water levels and the correlation with river discharges by using the methods of trend test, Mann-Whitney-Pettitt(MWP) test and double mass analysis. Major result indicated a decreasing/increasing trend for annual HWL/LWL of all stations in MLYR during the study period. A change point in 1999 was identified for annual HWL at the Hankou and Datong stations. The year 2006 was found to be the critical year that the relationship between annual extreme water levels and river discharges changed in the MLYR. With contrast to annual LWL in MLYR, further investigation revealed that the change characteristics of annual HWL were highly consistent with regional precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin, while the linkage with Three Gorges Dam(TGD) operation is not strong. Our observation also pointed out that the effect of serious down cutting of the riverbed and the enlargement of the cross-section area during the initial period of TGD operation caused the downward trend of the relationship between annual LWL and river discharge. Whereas, the relatively raised river water level before the flood season due to TGD regulation since 2006 explained for the changing upward trend of the relationship between annual HWL and river discharge.

Effects of water level fluctuation on sedimentary characteristics and reservoir architecture of a lake, river dominated delta

The hydrodynamic conditions present in a river delta's formation are a highly important factor in the variation between its sedimentary regulation and characteristics. In the case of the lacustrine basin river-dominated delta, water level fluctuations and fluviation, are both important controlling factors of the sedimentary characteristics and reservoir architecture. To discuss the effects of water level fluctuation on sediment characteristics and reservoir architecture of this delta, the Fangniugou section in the east of the Songliao Basin was selected for study. Based on an outcrop investigation of the lacustrine basin river-dominated delta, combining with an analysis of the major and trace chemical elements in the sediments to determine the relative water depth, through architecture bounding surfaces and lithofacies division, sedimentary microfacies recognition and architectural element research, this work illustrated the effects of water level fluctuation on the reservoir architecture and established sedimentary models for the lacustrine basin river-dominated delta under various water level conditions. The results show that there are 8 lithofacies in the Fangniugou section. The fan delta front, which is the main object of this study, develops four sedimentary microfacies that include the underwater distributary channel, river mouth bar, sheet sand and interdistributary bay. The effects of water level fluctuation on different orders geographic architecture elements are respectively reflected in the vertical combination of the composite sand bodies, the plane combination of the single sand bodies, the particle size changes in the vertical of hyperplasia in the single sand body, the coset and lamina. In the case of the sand body development of the petroliferous basin, varying water level conditions and research locations resulted in significant variation in the distribution and combination of the sand bodies in the lacustrine basin.

Using River Altitude Determined from a SRTM DEM to Estimate Groundwater Levels of the Tokwe and Mutirikwi Watersheds in Zimbabwe

Groundwater resources provide most of the domestic water supply in rural Zimbabwe and support poverty reduction through irrigation facilities. Most agricultural and environmental plans need water table depth analysis as an input in designing best management strategies. There are limited direct measurements of groundwater levels in Zimbabwe due to high costs and the limited human expertise. The study is aimed at coming up with a proof of concept that altitude of rivers as determined by an SRTM digital elevation model can be used to estimate the levels of groundwater in parts of Mutirikwi and Runde sub catchments of southern Zimbabwe. The study also maps the groundwater levels of the area as determined by river altitude from the digital elevation model. Firstly, the groundwater levels for nine boreholes are measured. Secondly, the altitude of a river bed nearest to each borehole site is extracted from a digital elevation model. Finally, the Spearman’s correlation coefficient is used to determine the nature and strength of the relationship between the two variables. Linear regression analysis was also used to obtain the predictive equation of the relationship and its coefficient of determination. After the relationship between groundwater and river altitude is established, 9 new random points of river altitude are generated across the study area interpolated using kriging interpolation to give the estimated altitude of river altitude. The altitude of groundwater is then determined by running the predictive equation Y = 0.8736 * X + 0.852 obtained from regression analysis. The depth to groundwater level of area is obtained by subtracting the determined groundwater altitude from the SRTM DEM. The results show strong positive and statistically significant (ρ = 0.000, α = 0.01) correlation coefficient of 0.971 between measured groundwater levels and altitude of rivers. The regression model shows a coefficient of determination (r2) of 0.975. The research therefore determines that altitude of rivers and use of geostatistics can produce physically plausible estimates of groundwater levels in the study area.

IMPACTS OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE ON SALT WATER INTRUSION IN THE CHANGJIANG RIVER ESTUARY

Sea level rise could increase the salinity of an estuary by altering the balance between fresh water and salt water. The implications of sea level rise for increasing salinity have been examined in the Changjiang (Yangtze) River estuary. By correlative analysis of chlorinity, discharge and tidal level and calculation of two-dimensional chlorinity, distribution of the Changjiang River estuary, the changes of the intensity and lasting hours of salt water intrusion at Wusong Station and the changes of chlorinity distribution in the South Branch of the Changjiang River estuary have been estimated when future sea level rises 50-100 cm. The intensity of salt water intrusion in the future will be far more serious than current trend.

Impact of and adaptation strategies for sea-level rise on Yangtze River Delta

一张稠密的人口和很快发展中的经济描绘的长江三角洲对海平面的上升高度脆弱。从中国海洋的信息网络和浙江的数据省的水文学局被用来分析海平面的上升。在三角洲的海平面的上升的率是 2.4 ? 公里每在 1981-2015 的年。年度在在三角洲的南方翅膀的 Daishan， Dinghai，和 Dongtou 车站海平面是 4.3， 3.1，和 5 ? 公里每年分别地在一样的时期上。在每个车站的 10 年的平均结果也显示海平面的上升的一个可察觉的趋势。海平面的上升被贡献加强的侵蚀的一个更大的比例，在三角洲从 3% ～ 14%。同时，潮汐的水平的 100 年的回来时期在 Dongtou 和 Dinghai 车站减少了到 50 年的等级。而且，在 Yanguan 的潮汐的讨厌的人的到达时间是 4 ? 在 0.145 的海平面的上升中更早的 min ? m 比 0 的 ? m。在表面和底部层的潮汐的讨厌的人和速度的高度在海平面的上升中有增加。高、低的潮层次的最大的增加是 0.122 ? m 并且 0.016 ? m 当最大值在表面和底部速度增加时，层是 0.07 ? m ? s 1 并且 0.05 ? m ? s 1, 分别地。海平面的上升将引起防波堤的损坏，因此，构造防波堤的设计标准应该采用高水平在长江三角洲和它的南方翅膀最小化联系风险。

GNSS-I/MR河流边界及水位测量理论与仿真

从几何构型和理论模型2个角度探究全球导航卫星系统干涉/多径反射测量(GNSS-I/MR)技术提取河流边界和测量河流水位的可行性。基于河流/河岸介电常数的差异性和河岸相对于河流存在斜度的事实,定义对河流边界敏感的反-直比和实验变化率2个观测量。在希尔伯特变换估计的载噪比包络和相位的基础上,提出基于一元二次方程求解反-直比和线性拟合实验变化率的估计方法,以及3-阈值最大类间方差识别河流/河岸和循环拟合提取河流边界的方法。基于河流表面的实验变化率测量河流水位,通过搭建仿真平台和设计2种河流场景,仿真验证所提方法的有效性。仿真结果表明:在设定参数下,利用介电常数检测场景1和场景2河流边界的均方根误差分别为1.47 m和1.13 m;实验变化率检测场景1和场景2河流边界的均方根误差分别为0.49 m和0.35 m;场景1和场景2的测量高度和真实值的误差分别为0.09 m和0.13 m。

贵州仁怀生物多样性及其环境背景

通过对仁怀市自然环境、遗传资源多样性、物种多样性、生态系统多样性、景观与土地利用开展全面、深入、系统地调查,结果发现仁怀市自然地理环境较为特殊,区内共记录野生生物物种5515种,其中植物2590种,动物1262种,微生物1663种,包括贵州省新记录科1个、新记录属9个、新记录种116个。仁怀市分布有国家重点保护野生植物21种,国家重点保护野生动物26种。本研究首次全面摸清了仁怀市生物多样性本底资源现状,并尝试系统地从无机环境、微生物和生物多样性方面阐释酱香白酒生产条件的特殊性,对仁怀市生物多样性保护和利用、酱香白酒产业的可持续发展具有一定的指导意义。

Statistical Modeling and Trend Detection of Extreme Sea Level Records in the Pearl River Estuary

Sea level rise has become an important issue in global climate change studies. This study investigates trends in sea level records, particularly extreme records, in the Pearl River Estuary, using measurements from two tide gauge stations in Macao and Hong Kong. Extremes in the original sea level records （daily higher high water heights） and in tidal residuals with and without the 18.6-year nodal modulation are investigated separately. Thresholds for defining extreme sea levels are calibrated based on extreme value theory. Extreme events are then modeled by peaks-over-threshold models. The model applied to extremes in original sea level records does not include modeling of their durations, while a geometric distribution is added to model the duration of extremes in tidal residuals. Realistic modeling results are recommended in all stationary models. Parametric trends of extreme sea level records are then introduced to nonstationary models through a generalized linear model framework. The result shows that, in recent decades, since the 1960s, no significant trends can be found in any type of extreme at any station, which may be related to a reduction in the influence of tropical cyclones in the region. For the longer-term record since the 1920s at Macao, a regime shift of tidal amplitudes around the 1970s may partially explain the diverse trend of extremes in original sea level records and tidal residuals.

长江经济带生态文明建设水平变化特征与影响因素分析

长江经济带生态文明建设水平的高低关系到长江流域绿色协调发展能力,深刻影响我国生态安全格局。从生态经济、生态环境、生态社会3个层面构建评价指标体系,使用改进TOPSIS方法模型测算长江经济带生态文明建设水平,利用地理加权回归模型(GWR)分析其影响因子。研究结果表明:(1)在2011—2020年,长江经济带生态文明建设水平整体上呈上升趋势,由东向西沿轴线逐步扩散。(2)各子系统建设水平异质性特征显著,生态经济建设水平东部高于西部,以长江下游地区和省会城市为核心向周围辐射发展;生态环境水平在各省会及其周边城市增长较快,而工业发展型城市有不同程度的降低。生态社会水平高值区集中分布在江浙沪地区,低值区分散分布于中上游各省会城市。(3)地形、常住人口城镇化水平、第三产业占比、恩格尔系数、科技财政支出占比均正向影响了研究区生态文明建设水平,每万人在校大学生数对生态文明建设水平呈弱负相关。

Water level updating model for flow calculation of river networks

Complex water movement and insufficient observation stations are the unfavorable factors in improving the accuracy of flow calculation of river networks. A water level updating model for river networks was set up based on a three-step method at key nodes, and model correction values were collected from gauge stations. To improve the accuracy of water level and discharge forecasts for the entire network, the discrete coefficients of the Saint-Venant equations for river sections were regarded as the media carrying the correction values from observation locations to other cross-sections of the river network system. To examine the applicability, the updating model was applied to flow calculation of an ideal river network and the Chengtong section of the Yangtze River. Comparison of the forecast results with the observed data demonstrates that this updating model can improve the forecast accuracy in both ideal and real river networks.

黄河下游灌区引黄涵闸引水能力变化原因分析

黄河下游引黄涵闸受河床下切、河势变化等因素共同影响,引水条件与设计情况相比发生了变化,造成部分河段涵闸引水困难,影响农业适时灌溉和生产。为给应对引黄涵闸引水能力下降问题提供参考,基于黄河下游2000—2016年引黄涵闸引水水位和河道断面实测数据,分析引黄涵闸引水水位变化、河槽冲刷、引黄渠道淤积变化等因素对引黄涵闸引水能力产生的影响。结果表明:1)2016年黄河来水300~900 m^(3)/s时,黄河下游引黄涵闸实际引水能力仅为设计引水能力的13.63%~39.43%,引黄涵闸引水能力明显下降;2)相较2000年,2016年的引黄涵闸设计值对应黄河流量的水位,高村以上河段下降了2.95~3.35 m,高村以下河段下降了1.55~2.95 m;3)从河段河床平均冲刷厚度看,花园口—夹河滩、夹河滩—高村、高村—孙口、孙口—艾山、艾山—泺口、泺口—利津河段的冲刷厚度分别为3.88、3.06、1.84、1.88、1.88、2.02 m,河槽连续冲刷导致同流量水位明显降低,严重影响河南和山东段引黄涵闸正常引水;4)涵闸前后引、输水渠道淤积会导致引黄涵闸引水能力降低。

稻田控制排水对高邮灌区河道洪水过程的影响

以高邮灌区为例,采用水文-水动力模型,研究稻田控制排水措施对河道洪峰流量、水位和洪水过程的影响。结果表明,雨前通过控制灌溉适当降低田间水位可减轻稻田出流峰值,随着稻田控制水位的增加,稻田径流峰值逐渐降低。通过稻田控制排水,可降低田间出口峰值流量,改变灌区河道洪水过程,降低河道洪峰流量和水位,减轻灌区内部以及附近河道的防洪压力。