The mountain watersheds of Kaidu River and Urumqi River, which separately originate from the south and north-side of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang, are selected as the study area. The characteristics and trends o...The mountain watersheds of Kaidu River and Urumqi River, which separately originate from the south and north-side of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang, are selected as the study area. The characteristics and trends on variation of temperature, precipitation and runoff, and the correlativity between temperature, precipitation, and runoffwere analyzed based on the past 40 years of observational data from the correlative hydrological and weather stations in the study areas. Various weather scene combinations are assumed and the response models of runoff to climate change are established in order to evaluate the sensitivity of runoff to climate change in the study areas based on the foregoing analysis, Results show that all variations of temperature, precipitation, and runoff overall present an oscillating and increasing trend since the 1960s and this increase are quite evident after 1990. There is a markedly positive correlation between mountain runoff, temperature, and precipitation while there are obvious regional differences of responding degree to precipitation and temperature between mountain runoff of Ummqi River and Kaidu River Basins Also, mountain runoff of Urumqi River Basin is more sensitive to precipitation change than that of Kaidu River Basin, and mountain runoff of Kaidu River Basin is more sensitive to temperature change than that of Ummqi River Basin.展开更多
全新世气候变化一直是科学界关注的热点问题,尤其是罗布泊地区多次大规模的环境变化导致小河文明和楼兰文明等古文明的消失。笔者等通过对叶尔羌河流域的阿克奇河左岸黄土剖面系统采样和粒度、磁化率及年代学测试,重建了该地区5 ka BP...全新世气候变化一直是科学界关注的热点问题,尤其是罗布泊地区多次大规模的环境变化导致小河文明和楼兰文明等古文明的消失。笔者等通过对叶尔羌河流域的阿克奇河左岸黄土剖面系统采样和粒度、磁化率及年代学测试,重建了该地区5 ka BP以来的古气候环境,并在此基础上分析了昆仑山北区黄土沉积记录的古气候环境与塔里木河下游罗布泊地区小河文明之间的关系。研究结果显示4.5~3.58 ka BP,昆仑山区次生黄土快速堆积,气候较湿润,降水量较多,塔里木河上游水源充足,为下游罗布泊地区提供了大量水资源,也为小河文明的孕育和初期发展奠定了坚实基础;3.58 ka BP以后,昆仑山区的剖面沉积物由次生黄土转为风成黄土,显示气候开始转向干冷,因降水量减少导致流入到罗布泊地区的有效水资源逐步减少,罗布泊生态环境开始恶化,小河文明开始衰退,直至消失。因此小河文明的孕育与昆仑山区全新世湿润期气候有着非常密切的联系。展开更多
使用高空、地面观测资料、地面自动站雨量资料和美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)再分析资料,通过水汽通量诊断分析、后向轨迹模型等方法,分析了昆仑山北麓和田地区2020年5月5—7日(简称“05·06”过程)和2021年6月14—17日(简称“06...使用高空、地面观测资料、地面自动站雨量资料和美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)再分析资料,通过水汽通量诊断分析、后向轨迹模型等方法,分析了昆仑山北麓和田地区2020年5月5—7日(简称“05·06”过程)和2021年6月14—17日(简称“06·15”过程)两次极端暴雨过程的环流形势、中尺度系统、水汽输送和收支特征。结果表明:(1)两次暴雨过程有共同的特点:影响系统都为中亚低涡,均有来自里海、咸海一带的水汽输送;对流层低层偏东急流作用显著,最强水汽辐合集中在700~850 h Pa。(2)两次暴雨过程也有明显差异:“05·06”过程的南亚高压为带状分布,水汽输送路径为西方和偏东路径,其中西方路径水汽输送最明显,西边界水汽输入贡献占88%;“06·15”过程的南亚高压为双体型,水汽输送路径为北方和偏南路径,水汽来自阿拉伯海和孟加拉湾的偏南气流向北输送,南方路径输送量远远大于其他路径,南边界水汽输入贡献占78%。(3)和田大气可降水量(PW)增大尤其是超过平均状态时,对强降水出现有指示意义,当PW≥20 mm以上时,可能会出现暴雨或极端暴雨天气。展开更多
基金supported by the funding of the Key Laboratory of Eco-hydrology Open FundChinese Academy of Sciences and Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.KZCX2-YW-328
文摘The mountain watersheds of Kaidu River and Urumqi River, which separately originate from the south and north-side of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang, are selected as the study area. The characteristics and trends on variation of temperature, precipitation and runoff, and the correlativity between temperature, precipitation, and runoffwere analyzed based on the past 40 years of observational data from the correlative hydrological and weather stations in the study areas. Various weather scene combinations are assumed and the response models of runoff to climate change are established in order to evaluate the sensitivity of runoff to climate change in the study areas based on the foregoing analysis, Results show that all variations of temperature, precipitation, and runoff overall present an oscillating and increasing trend since the 1960s and this increase are quite evident after 1990. There is a markedly positive correlation between mountain runoff, temperature, and precipitation while there are obvious regional differences of responding degree to precipitation and temperature between mountain runoff of Ummqi River and Kaidu River Basins Also, mountain runoff of Urumqi River Basin is more sensitive to precipitation change than that of Kaidu River Basin, and mountain runoff of Kaidu River Basin is more sensitive to temperature change than that of Ummqi River Basin.
文摘全新世气候变化一直是科学界关注的热点问题,尤其是罗布泊地区多次大规模的环境变化导致小河文明和楼兰文明等古文明的消失。笔者等通过对叶尔羌河流域的阿克奇河左岸黄土剖面系统采样和粒度、磁化率及年代学测试,重建了该地区5 ka BP以来的古气候环境,并在此基础上分析了昆仑山北区黄土沉积记录的古气候环境与塔里木河下游罗布泊地区小河文明之间的关系。研究结果显示4.5~3.58 ka BP,昆仑山区次生黄土快速堆积,气候较湿润,降水量较多,塔里木河上游水源充足,为下游罗布泊地区提供了大量水资源,也为小河文明的孕育和初期发展奠定了坚实基础;3.58 ka BP以后,昆仑山区的剖面沉积物由次生黄土转为风成黄土,显示气候开始转向干冷,因降水量减少导致流入到罗布泊地区的有效水资源逐步减少,罗布泊生态环境开始恶化,小河文明开始衰退,直至消失。因此小河文明的孕育与昆仑山区全新世湿润期气候有着非常密切的联系。
文摘使用高空、地面观测资料、地面自动站雨量资料和美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)再分析资料,通过水汽通量诊断分析、后向轨迹模型等方法,分析了昆仑山北麓和田地区2020年5月5—7日(简称“05·06”过程)和2021年6月14—17日(简称“06·15”过程)两次极端暴雨过程的环流形势、中尺度系统、水汽输送和收支特征。结果表明:(1)两次暴雨过程有共同的特点:影响系统都为中亚低涡,均有来自里海、咸海一带的水汽输送;对流层低层偏东急流作用显著,最强水汽辐合集中在700~850 h Pa。(2)两次暴雨过程也有明显差异:“05·06”过程的南亚高压为带状分布,水汽输送路径为西方和偏东路径,其中西方路径水汽输送最明显,西边界水汽输入贡献占88%;“06·15”过程的南亚高压为双体型,水汽输送路径为北方和偏南路径,水汽来自阿拉伯海和孟加拉湾的偏南气流向北输送,南方路径输送量远远大于其他路径,南边界水汽输入贡献占78%。(3)和田大气可降水量(PW)增大尤其是超过平均状态时,对强降水出现有指示意义,当PW≥20 mm以上时,可能会出现暴雨或极端暴雨天气。
