Most previous research on areas with abundant rainfall shows that simulations using rainfall-runoff modes have a very high prediction accuracy and applicability when using a back-propagation(BP), feed-forward, multila...Most previous research on areas with abundant rainfall shows that simulations using rainfall-runoff modes have a very high prediction accuracy and applicability when using a back-propagation(BP), feed-forward, multilayer perceptron artificial neural network(ANN). However, in runoff areas with relatively low rainfall or a dry climate, more studies are needed. In these areas—of which oasis-plain areas are a particularly good example—the existence and development of runoff depends largely on that which is generated from alpine regions. Quantitative analysis of the uncertainty of runoff simulation under climate change is the key to improving the utilization and management of water resources in arid areas. Therefore, in this context, three kinds of BP feed-forward, three-layer ANNs with similar structure were chosen as models in this paper.Taking the oasis–plain region traverse by the Qira River Basin in Xinjiang, China, as the research area, the monthly accumulated runoff of the Qira River in the next month was simulated and predicted. The results showed that the training precision of a compact wavelet neural network is low; but from the forecasting results, it could be concluded that the training algorithm can better reflect the whole law of samples. The traditional artificial neural network(TANN) model and radial basis-function neural network(RBFNN) model showed higher accuracy in the training and prediction stage. However, the TANN model, more sensitive to the selection of input variables, requires a large number of numerical simulations to determine the appropriate input variables and the number of hidden-layer neurons. Hence, The RBFNN model is more suitable for the study of such problems. And it can be extended to other similar research arid-oasis areas on the southern edge of the Kunlun Mountains and provides a reference for sustainable water-resource management of arid-oasis areas.展开更多
The simplicity of Topography-based hydrological model (TOPMODEL), as a way of reflecting the topographic controls on soil water storage and runoff generation, has become more attractive and more popular for land surfa...The simplicity of Topography-based hydrological model (TOPMODEL), as a way of reflecting the topographic controls on soil water storage and runoff generation, has become more attractive and more popular for land surface process study since digital elevation models (DEMs) have become widely available. In this paper, the effect of the topography index on soil water storage distribution, which is the key to TOPMODEL, is explained. Then a simple water cycle model for estimating other components of the surface water cycle is developed, which is implemented into the TOPMODEL to integrate the water cycle of the catchment. Using the output of a DEM from 100 m×100 m resolution data and a single flow direction algorithm, the index distribution function is calculated for a catchment (around 2500 km2 )in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River under different channel initiation thresholds. Finally, the daily and monthly rainfall-runoff response from 1960 to 1987 for the catchment is simulated with the TOPMODEL coupled with the simple water cycle model.展开更多
Changes in the weather will cause variations in the hydrological system.Arid areas,with fragile hydrological systems,are very sensitive to changes in the weather,so the coupling analysis of short-term weather and runo...Changes in the weather will cause variations in the hydrological system.Arid areas,with fragile hydrological systems,are very sensitive to changes in the weather,so the coupling analysis of short-term weather and runoff in arid areas is of great significance.The Daihai Lake is a closed inland lake in an arid area of China.In this paper,Weather Research and Forecasting model mode-Hydrological module(WRF-HYDRO)is used to simulate the coupling of weather and hydrology in the Daihai Lake Basin.Regional optimization of WRF-HYDRO is carried out to determine the optimal parameters.The optimal WRF-HYDRO model is applied to couple the short-term weather and runoff in the Daihai Lake Basin to reproduce several rainstorm and flood events.It is found that runoff infiltration parameter(REFKDT)in WRF-HYDRO is the parameter that has the most severe effect on runoff in the Daihai Lake Basin.WRF-HYDRO can capture the rainstorm moment of the rainstorm events in the Daihai Lake Basin,especially the first rainstorm moment,and its simulation accuracy is good.WRF-HYDRO has a strong ability to capture flood peak,but there is a discrepancy between WRF-HYDRO flood peak and Soil Conservation Service Curve Number(SCS-CN)calculation result at the flood peak moment.The northern part of Zuoyun County should guard against the occurrence of flood disaster in wet season.The coupling of weatherand hydrology can not only make up for the lack of runoff data in arid basins,but also provide a basis for water resources management and disaster prevention and mitigation in the basins.展开更多
Climate change is the dominant factor affecting the hydrological process, it is of great significance to simulate and predict its influence on water resources management, socio-economic activities, and sustainable dev...Climate change is the dominant factor affecting the hydrological process, it is of great significance to simulate and predict its influence on water resources management, socio-economic activities, and sustainable development in the future. In this paper, the Xiying River Basin was taken as the study area, China Atmospheric Assimilation Driven Data Set(CMADS) and observation data from the Jiutiaoling station were used to simulate runoff of the SWAT model and calibrate and verify model parameters. On this basis, runoff change of the basin under the future climate scenario of CMIP6 was predicted. Our research shows that:(1) The contribution rates of climate change and human activities to runoff increase of the Xiying River are 89.17% and 10.83%, respectively. Climate change is the most important factor affecting runoff change of the Xiying River.(2) In these three different emission scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 in CMIP6 climate model, the average temperature increased by0.61, 1.09 and 1.74 C, respectively, in the Xiying River Basin from 2017 to 2050. Average precipitation increased by 14.36, 66.88, and 142.73 mm, respectively, and runoff increased by 15, 24, and 35 million m3, respectively.The effect of climate change on runoff will continue to deepen in the future.展开更多
This study simulated and predicted the runoff of the Aksu River Basin, a typical river basin supplied by snowmelt in an arid mountain region, with a limited data set and few hydrological and meteorological stations. T...This study simulated and predicted the runoff of the Aksu River Basin, a typical river basin supplied by snowmelt in an arid mountain region, with a limited data set and few hydrological and meteorological stations. Two hydrological models, the snowmelt-runoff model (SRM) and the Danish NedbФr-AfstrФmnings rainfall-runoff model (NAM), were used to simulate daily discharge processes in the Aksu River Basin. This study used the snow-covered area from MODIS remote sensing data as the SRM input. With the help of ArcGIS software, this study successfully derived the digital drainage network and elevation zones of the basin from digital elevation data. The simulation results showed that the SRM based on MODIS data was more accurate than NAM. This demonstrates that the application of remote sensing data to hydrological snowmelt models is a feasible and effective approach to runoff simulation and prediction in arid unguaged basins where snowmelt is a major runoff factor.展开更多
[ Objective] The research aimed to establish SWAT distributed hydrologic model and analyze influence of the climatic change on runoff in Beijiang River basin. [ Method] Beijiang River basin as research object, SWAT mo...[ Objective] The research aimed to establish SWAT distributed hydrologic model and analyze influence of the climatic change on runoff in Beijiang River basin. [ Method] Beijiang River basin as research object, SWAT model was used to simulate runoff in basin. Monthly water flow in Shijiao station from 1961 to 1980 was used to determine model parameter, while monthly water flow from 1981 to 1990 was used to verify. Setting 15 kinds of climate change scenarios, SWAT model was used to simulate influence of the future climatic change on runoff in Beijiang River basin. [Result] Simulated accuracy of the SWAT model was high, and it could be used to simulate runoff in Beijiang River basin. Under the situation of in- variable rainfall, temperature rise made that evaporation capacity increased, and runoff depth decreased. When temperature unchanged, rainfall increase made that evaporation capacity and runoff depth increased somewhat. [ Conclusion] The research could provide reference basis for water re- source management in Beijiang River basin.展开更多
基金financially supported by the regional collaborative innovation project for Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (Shanghai cooperation organization science and technology partnership project) (2017E01029)the "Western Light" program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (2017XBQNXZ-B-016)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41601595, U1603343, 41471031)the State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences (G201802-08)
文摘Most previous research on areas with abundant rainfall shows that simulations using rainfall-runoff modes have a very high prediction accuracy and applicability when using a back-propagation(BP), feed-forward, multilayer perceptron artificial neural network(ANN). However, in runoff areas with relatively low rainfall or a dry climate, more studies are needed. In these areas—of which oasis-plain areas are a particularly good example—the existence and development of runoff depends largely on that which is generated from alpine regions. Quantitative analysis of the uncertainty of runoff simulation under climate change is the key to improving the utilization and management of water resources in arid areas. Therefore, in this context, three kinds of BP feed-forward, three-layer ANNs with similar structure were chosen as models in this paper.Taking the oasis–plain region traverse by the Qira River Basin in Xinjiang, China, as the research area, the monthly accumulated runoff of the Qira River in the next month was simulated and predicted. The results showed that the training precision of a compact wavelet neural network is low; but from the forecasting results, it could be concluded that the training algorithm can better reflect the whole law of samples. The traditional artificial neural network(TANN) model and radial basis-function neural network(RBFNN) model showed higher accuracy in the training and prediction stage. However, the TANN model, more sensitive to the selection of input variables, requires a large number of numerical simulations to determine the appropriate input variables and the number of hidden-layer neurons. Hence, The RBFNN model is more suitable for the study of such problems. And it can be extended to other similar research arid-oasis areas on the southern edge of the Kunlun Mountains and provides a reference for sustainable water-resource management of arid-oasis areas.
基金supported by the following projects of China the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.40233034 and 40075019the following projects of China the National Key Program for Developing Basic Sciences G1998040900-Part 1the following projects of China KZCX2-SW-210.
文摘The simplicity of Topography-based hydrological model (TOPMODEL), as a way of reflecting the topographic controls on soil water storage and runoff generation, has become more attractive and more popular for land surface process study since digital elevation models (DEMs) have become widely available. In this paper, the effect of the topography index on soil water storage distribution, which is the key to TOPMODEL, is explained. Then a simple water cycle model for estimating other components of the surface water cycle is developed, which is implemented into the TOPMODEL to integrate the water cycle of the catchment. Using the output of a DEM from 100 m×100 m resolution data and a single flow direction algorithm, the index distribution function is calculated for a catchment (around 2500 km2 )in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River under different channel initiation thresholds. Finally, the daily and monthly rainfall-runoff response from 1960 to 1987 for the catchment is simulated with the TOPMODEL coupled with the simple water cycle model.
基金This project is supported by the Major Science and Technology Project of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China(ZDZX2018054)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42067013).
文摘Changes in the weather will cause variations in the hydrological system.Arid areas,with fragile hydrological systems,are very sensitive to changes in the weather,so the coupling analysis of short-term weather and runoff in arid areas is of great significance.The Daihai Lake is a closed inland lake in an arid area of China.In this paper,Weather Research and Forecasting model mode-Hydrological module(WRF-HYDRO)is used to simulate the coupling of weather and hydrology in the Daihai Lake Basin.Regional optimization of WRF-HYDRO is carried out to determine the optimal parameters.The optimal WRF-HYDRO model is applied to couple the short-term weather and runoff in the Daihai Lake Basin to reproduce several rainstorm and flood events.It is found that runoff infiltration parameter(REFKDT)in WRF-HYDRO is the parameter that has the most severe effect on runoff in the Daihai Lake Basin.WRF-HYDRO can capture the rainstorm moment of the rainstorm events in the Daihai Lake Basin,especially the first rainstorm moment,and its simulation accuracy is good.WRF-HYDRO has a strong ability to capture flood peak,but there is a discrepancy between WRF-HYDRO flood peak and Soil Conservation Service Curve Number(SCS-CN)calculation result at the flood peak moment.The northern part of Zuoyun County should guard against the occurrence of flood disaster in wet season.The coupling of weatherand hydrology can not only make up for the lack of runoff data in arid basins,but also provide a basis for water resources management and disaster prevention and mitigation in the basins.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41867030,41971036)the key Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province(23JRRA698)+2 种基金the key Research and Development Program of Gansu Province(22YF7NA122)the Oasis Scientific Research achievements Breakthrough Action Plan Project of Northwest normal University(NWNU-LZKX-202302)the cultivation Plan Project of the Major(key)Project of Northwest normal University.
文摘Climate change is the dominant factor affecting the hydrological process, it is of great significance to simulate and predict its influence on water resources management, socio-economic activities, and sustainable development in the future. In this paper, the Xiying River Basin was taken as the study area, China Atmospheric Assimilation Driven Data Set(CMADS) and observation data from the Jiutiaoling station were used to simulate runoff of the SWAT model and calibrate and verify model parameters. On this basis, runoff change of the basin under the future climate scenario of CMIP6 was predicted. Our research shows that:(1) The contribution rates of climate change and human activities to runoff increase of the Xiying River are 89.17% and 10.83%, respectively. Climate change is the most important factor affecting runoff change of the Xiying River.(2) In these three different emission scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 in CMIP6 climate model, the average temperature increased by0.61, 1.09 and 1.74 C, respectively, in the Xiying River Basin from 2017 to 2050. Average precipitation increased by 14.36, 66.88, and 142.73 mm, respectively, and runoff increased by 15, 24, and 35 million m3, respectively.The effect of climate change on runoff will continue to deepen in the future.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2006CB400502)the World Bank Cooperative Project(Grant No.THSD-07)the 111 Program of the Ministry of Education and the State Administration of Foreign Expert Affairs,China(Grant No.B08048)
文摘This study simulated and predicted the runoff of the Aksu River Basin, a typical river basin supplied by snowmelt in an arid mountain region, with a limited data set and few hydrological and meteorological stations. Two hydrological models, the snowmelt-runoff model (SRM) and the Danish NedbФr-AfstrФmnings rainfall-runoff model (NAM), were used to simulate daily discharge processes in the Aksu River Basin. This study used the snow-covered area from MODIS remote sensing data as the SRM input. With the help of ArcGIS software, this study successfully derived the digital drainage network and elevation zones of the basin from digital elevation data. The simulation results showed that the SRM based on MODIS data was more accurate than NAM. This demonstrates that the application of remote sensing data to hydrological snowmelt models is a feasible and effective approach to runoff simulation and prediction in arid unguaged basins where snowmelt is a major runoff factor.
基金Supported by Open Research Fund Program of State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,China(2010B065)National Natural Science Foundation,China(10972080)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,SCUT,China (2009ZM0186)
文摘[ Objective] The research aimed to establish SWAT distributed hydrologic model and analyze influence of the climatic change on runoff in Beijiang River basin. [ Method] Beijiang River basin as research object, SWAT model was used to simulate runoff in basin. Monthly water flow in Shijiao station from 1961 to 1980 was used to determine model parameter, while monthly water flow from 1981 to 1990 was used to verify. Setting 15 kinds of climate change scenarios, SWAT model was used to simulate influence of the future climatic change on runoff in Beijiang River basin. [Result] Simulated accuracy of the SWAT model was high, and it could be used to simulate runoff in Beijiang River basin. Under the situation of in- variable rainfall, temperature rise made that evaporation capacity increased, and runoff depth decreased. When temperature unchanged, rainfall increase made that evaporation capacity and runoff depth increased somewhat. [ Conclusion] The research could provide reference basis for water re- source management in Beijiang River basin.