为研究黄河源区径流演变规律,以WEP-QTP(The Water and Energy transfer Processes in the Qinghai⁃Tibet Plateau)模型为基础构建基于水热耦合的黄河源区冻土水文模型。采用玛曲站2019—2021年冻融期逐日土壤温度及土壤液态含水率对模...为研究黄河源区径流演变规律,以WEP-QTP(The Water and Energy transfer Processes in the Qinghai⁃Tibet Plateau)模型为基础构建基于水热耦合的黄河源区冻土水文模型。采用玛曲站2019—2021年冻融期逐日土壤温度及土壤液态含水率对模型进行验证,率定期及验证期决定系数(R2)均值为0.8左右,均方根误差(RMSE)均值分别为1.0℃及0.04左右;采用8个冻土监测点1971—2000年冻融期逐日冻土深度进行验证,决定系数(R2)均值为0.89,均方根误差(RMSE)均值为214.81 mm。模型模拟黄河源区1956—2020年逐月流量过程,效率系数(NSE)为0.8左右,相对误差(RE)为5%左右,表明模型能较好地模拟黄河源区径流过程。利用M-K趋势检验分析得到1956—2020年黄河源区径流呈不显著增加趋势,其变化趋势是降水与气温共同影响的结果。冻融期、非冻融期径流与全年趋势一致。降水增加、气候变暖及冻土退化使径流组分发生变化,地表径流及地下径流均呈增加趋势,但地下径流在全年及冻融期增加趋势更加显著。展开更多
为准确揭示密云水库流域径流变化的物理成因,基于降水、径流非平稳特征诊断结果,采用SWAT(soil and water assessment tool)水文模型,基于Budyko理论的弹性系数法和水量平衡法揭示该流域径流变化原因;对比验证各模型归因结果差异,进一...为准确揭示密云水库流域径流变化的物理成因,基于降水、径流非平稳特征诊断结果,采用SWAT(soil and water assessment tool)水文模型,基于Budyko理论的弹性系数法和水量平衡法揭示该流域径流变化原因;对比验证各模型归因结果差异,进一步探究归因方法和基准期选择对流域径流变化归因结果的影响。结果表明:基于Budyko理论的水量平衡方法更适用于水利工程众多、跨流域调水活动频繁的密云水库流域径流变化归因计算;利用该方法进行分析,当基准期长度达到16年及以上时,流域径流变化归因分析结果逐渐趋于稳定,而基准期选取过短会高估人类活动对径流的减水效应;此外,基准期选取靠近研究初始时段时,计算得到人类活动的减水效应相对较大。综合考虑上述各因素的影响,认为人类活动是密云水库流域径流变化的主导因素;在变化期Ⅰ,其减水效应在-128.32%~-119.56%波动,在变化期Ⅱ,其对径流的削减作用为-75.58%~-70.70%。研究结果有助于提升对密云水库流域径流复杂演变规律和物理成因的科学认识。展开更多
Water is the important resource to guarantee the existence and development of oases in arid areas. To improve the utilization efficiency of water resources in Manas River Basin, this paper investigated the trends and ...Water is the important resource to guarantee the existence and development of oases in arid areas. To improve the utilization efficiency of water resources in Manas River Basin, this paper investigated the trends and periods of runoff based on the runoff and climate data for the past 50 years. Subsequently, with the socioeconomic and water resources data, we studied a comprehensive evaluation on the water security in this area. The results indicated that the stream flows in the three hydrological stations of Hongshanzui, Kensiwat and Bajiahu have sig- nificantly increased and undergone abrupt changes, with periods of 18 and 20 years. According to assessment, water security in the Manas River Basin was at an unsafe level in 2008. In criterion layer, the ecological security index and the index of supply-demand situation are both at the relatively secure level; the quantity index and so- cioeconomic index of water resources are at the unsafe level and basic security level, respectively. Therefore, in order to achieve sustainable economic and social development within the Manas River Basin, it is vital to take a series of effective measures to improve the status of water security.展开更多
Based on the 58 years monthly flow data (from 1956 to 2013) editing by Jingle hydrological station of Fen River and Shangjinyou station, data resources are used to analyze the annual and inter-annual changes from spat...Based on the 58 years monthly flow data (from 1956 to 2013) editing by Jingle hydrological station of Fen River and Shangjinyou station, data resources are used to analyze the annual and inter-annual changes from spatial and temporal scale by statistical methods, mainly annual spatial and temporal distribution, trend of inter-annual changes, cycle and mutation changes. The reasons of runoff into reservoir changes are deeply analyzed by annual precipitation data of catchments above Fenhe Reservoir 1956 to 2013 and the land and water reservation methods which are implemented recently. It shows that there is a significant decrease of the inter-annual run-off with main and second cycle periods, 23a and 13a respectively. Furthermore, it exists mutation point between 1970 and 1971 through runoff series. As for further analysis of the causes of Fenhe Reservoir runoff changes, it illustrates that the change of precipitation is the main reason the facilitate runoff changes. Also, the land and water reservation methods which are implemented in upstream of Fenhe Reservoir increase water storage capacity of soil, showing it non-ignorable effect to runoff changes.展开更多
文摘为研究黄河源区径流演变规律,以WEP-QTP(The Water and Energy transfer Processes in the Qinghai⁃Tibet Plateau)模型为基础构建基于水热耦合的黄河源区冻土水文模型。采用玛曲站2019—2021年冻融期逐日土壤温度及土壤液态含水率对模型进行验证,率定期及验证期决定系数(R2)均值为0.8左右,均方根误差(RMSE)均值分别为1.0℃及0.04左右;采用8个冻土监测点1971—2000年冻融期逐日冻土深度进行验证,决定系数(R2)均值为0.89,均方根误差(RMSE)均值为214.81 mm。模型模拟黄河源区1956—2020年逐月流量过程,效率系数(NSE)为0.8左右,相对误差(RE)为5%左右,表明模型能较好地模拟黄河源区径流过程。利用M-K趋势检验分析得到1956—2020年黄河源区径流呈不显著增加趋势,其变化趋势是降水与气温共同影响的结果。冻融期、非冻融期径流与全年趋势一致。降水增加、气候变暖及冻土退化使径流组分发生变化,地表径流及地下径流均呈增加趋势,但地下径流在全年及冻融期增加趋势更加显著。
文摘为准确揭示密云水库流域径流变化的物理成因,基于降水、径流非平稳特征诊断结果,采用SWAT(soil and water assessment tool)水文模型,基于Budyko理论的弹性系数法和水量平衡法揭示该流域径流变化原因;对比验证各模型归因结果差异,进一步探究归因方法和基准期选择对流域径流变化归因结果的影响。结果表明:基于Budyko理论的水量平衡方法更适用于水利工程众多、跨流域调水活动频繁的密云水库流域径流变化归因计算;利用该方法进行分析,当基准期长度达到16年及以上时,流域径流变化归因分析结果逐渐趋于稳定,而基准期选取过短会高估人类活动对径流的减水效应;此外,基准期选取靠近研究初始时段时,计算得到人类活动的减水效应相对较大。综合考虑上述各因素的影响,认为人类活动是密云水库流域径流变化的主导因素;在变化期Ⅰ,其减水效应在-128.32%~-119.56%波动,在变化期Ⅱ,其对径流的削减作用为-75.58%~-70.70%。研究结果有助于提升对密云水库流域径流复杂演变规律和物理成因的科学认识。
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41001066)the National Basic Research Program of China (Program 973) (2009CB421308)the Ministry of Water Resources’ Special Funds for Scientific Research on Public Causes (201101049)
文摘Water is the important resource to guarantee the existence and development of oases in arid areas. To improve the utilization efficiency of water resources in Manas River Basin, this paper investigated the trends and periods of runoff based on the runoff and climate data for the past 50 years. Subsequently, with the socioeconomic and water resources data, we studied a comprehensive evaluation on the water security in this area. The results indicated that the stream flows in the three hydrological stations of Hongshanzui, Kensiwat and Bajiahu have sig- nificantly increased and undergone abrupt changes, with periods of 18 and 20 years. According to assessment, water security in the Manas River Basin was at an unsafe level in 2008. In criterion layer, the ecological security index and the index of supply-demand situation are both at the relatively secure level; the quantity index and so- cioeconomic index of water resources are at the unsafe level and basic security level, respectively. Therefore, in order to achieve sustainable economic and social development within the Manas River Basin, it is vital to take a series of effective measures to improve the status of water security.
文摘Based on the 58 years monthly flow data (from 1956 to 2013) editing by Jingle hydrological station of Fen River and Shangjinyou station, data resources are used to analyze the annual and inter-annual changes from spatial and temporal scale by statistical methods, mainly annual spatial and temporal distribution, trend of inter-annual changes, cycle and mutation changes. The reasons of runoff into reservoir changes are deeply analyzed by annual precipitation data of catchments above Fenhe Reservoir 1956 to 2013 and the land and water reservation methods which are implemented recently. It shows that there is a significant decrease of the inter-annual run-off with main and second cycle periods, 23a and 13a respectively. Furthermore, it exists mutation point between 1970 and 1971 through runoff series. As for further analysis of the causes of Fenhe Reservoir runoff changes, it illustrates that the change of precipitation is the main reason the facilitate runoff changes. Also, the land and water reservation methods which are implemented in upstream of Fenhe Reservoir increase water storage capacity of soil, showing it non-ignorable effect to runoff changes.
