The trend on runoff variations in the Lhasa River Basin

Taking the Lhasa River Basin above Lhasa hydrological station in Tibetan Plateau as a study area, the characteristics of the annual and monthly mean runoff during 1956-2003 were analyzed, based on the hydro-data of the two hydrological stations （Lhasa and Tanggya） and the meteorological data of the three meteorological stations （Damxung, Lhasa and Tanggya）. The trends and the change points of runoff and climate from 1956 to 2003 were detected using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt-Mann-Whitney change-point statistics. The correlations between runoff and climate change were analyzed using multiple linear regression. The major results could be summarized as follows： （1） The annual mean runoff during the last 50 years is characterized by a great fluctuation and a positive trend with two change points （around 1970 and the early 1980s）, after which the runoff tended to increase and was increasing intensively in the last 20 years. Besides, the monthly mean runoff with a positive trend is centralized in winter half-year （November to April） and some other months （May, July and September）. （2） The trends of the climate change in the study area are generally consistent with the trend of the runoff, but the leading climate factors which aroused the runoff variation are distinct. Precipitation is the dominant factor influencing the annual and monthly mean runoff in summer half year, while temperature is the primary factor in winter season.

Research on runoff variations based on wavelet analysis and wavelet neural network model： A case study of the Heihe River drainage basin （1944-2005）

The Heihe River drainage basin is one of the endangered ecological regions of China. The shortage of water resources is the bottleneck, which constrains the sustainable development of the region. Many scholars in China have done researches concerning this problem. Based on previous researches, this paper analyzed characteristics, tendencies, and causes of annual runoff variations in the Yingluo Gorge （1944-2005） and the Zhengyi Gorge （1954-2005）, which are the boundaries of the upper reaches, the middle reaches, and the lower reaches of the Heihe River drainage basin, by wavelet analysis, wavelet neural network model, and GIS spatial analysis. The results show that： （1） annual runoff variations of the Yingluo Gorge have principal periods of 7 years and 25 years, and its increasing rate is 1.04 m^3/s.10y; （2） annual runoff variations of the Zhengyi Gorge have principal periods of 6 years and 27 years, and its decreasing rate is 2.25 m^3/s.10y; （3） prediction results show that： during 2006-2015, annual runoff variations of the Yingluo and Zhengyi gorges have ascending tendencies, and the increasing rates are respectively 2.04 m^3/s.10y and 1.61 m^3/s.10y; （4） the increase of annual runoff in the Yingluo Gorge has causal relationship with increased temperature and precipitation in the upper reaches, and the decrease of annual runoff in the Zhengyi Gorge in the past decades was mainly caused by the increased human consumption of water resources in the middle researches. The study results will provide scientific basis for making rational use and allocation schemes of water resources in the Heihe River drainage basin.

Synergistic effects of multiple driving factors on the runoff variations in the Yellow River Basin,China

River runoff plays an important role in watershed ecosystems and human survival,and it is controlled by multiple environmental factors.However,the synergistic effects of various large-scale circulation factors and meteorological factors on the runoff on different time-frequency scales have rarely been explored.In light of this,the underlying mechanism of the synergistic effects of the different environmental factors on the runoff variations was investigated in the Yellow River Basin of China during the period 1950-2019 using the bivariate wavelet coherence(WTC)and multiple wavelet coherence(MWC)methods.First,the continuous wavelet transform(CWT)method was used to analyze the multiscale characteristics of the runoff.The results of the CWT indicate that the runoff exhibited significant continuous or discontinuous annual and semiannual oscillations during the study period.Scattered inter-annual time scales were also observed for the runoff in the Yellow River Basin.The meteorological factors better explained the runoff variations on seasonal and annual time scales.The average wavelet coherence(AWC)and the percent area of the significant coherence(PASC)between the runoff and individual meteorological factors were 0.454 and 19.89%,respectively.The circulation factors mainly regulated the runoff on the inter-annual and decadal time scales with more complicated phase relationships due to their indirect effects on the runoff.The AWC and PASC between the runoff and individual circulation factors were 0.359 and 7.31%,respectively.The MWC analysis revealed that the synergistic effects of multiple factors should be taken into consideration to explain the multiscale characteristic variations of the runoff.The AWC or MWC ranges were 0.320-0.560,0.617-0.755,and 0.819-0.884 for the combinations of one,two,and three circulation and meteorological factors,respectively.The PASC ranges were 3.53%-33.77%,12.93%-36.90%,and 20.67%-39.34%for the combinations one,two,and three driving factors,respectively.The combinations of precipitation,evapotranspiration(or the number of rainy days),and the Arctic Oscillation performed well in explaining the variability in the runoff on all time scales,and the average MWC and PASC were 0.847 and 28.79%,respectively.These findings are of great significance for improving our understanding of hydro-climate interactions and water resources prediction in the Yellow River Basin.

Runoff variation affected by precipitation change and human activity in Hailiutu River basin,China

For recent years,runoff generation and hydrological processes in Hailiutu River basin have been greatly changed by climate change and human activity,especially water and soil conservation construction.In this study,the trends in precipitation,evapotranspiration(ET)and river runoff as well as the effects of precipitation change and human activity on runoff variation have been studied.The results showed that during 1960-2000,annual precipitation and river runoff,monthly precipitation and ET in September and October as well as monthly runoff in all months showed a significant decrease.In addition,peak flow and base flow had a large decrease.Under the joint influence of precipitation change and human activity,the mean annual runoff decreased by 35 million m3 from the baseline period(1960-1985)to the change period(1986-2000),which accounted for 60.9%and 39.1%of the total runoff decrease,respectively.Precipitation change played a primary role in the decrease of annual runoff whereas human activity,particularly water and soil conservation construction,also had remarkable impacts on runoff variation.

Runoff variation and its response to climate change in the Three Rivers Source Region

Runoff at the three time scales （non-flooding season, flooding season and annual period） was simulated and tested from 1958 to 2005 at Tangnaihai （Yellow River Source Region： YeSR）, Zhimenda （Yangtze River Source Region： YaSR） and Changdu （Lancang River Source Region： LcSR） by hydrological modeling, trend detection and comparative analysis. Also, future runoff variations from 2010 to 2039 at the three outlets were analyzed in A1B and B1 scenarios of CSIRO and NCAR climate model and the impact of climate change was tested. The results showed that the annual and non-flooding season runoff decreased significantly in YeSR, which decreased the water discharge to the midstream and down- stream of the Yellow River, and intensified the water shortage in the Yellow River Basin, but the other two regions were not statistically significant in the last 48 years. Compared with the runoff in baseline （1990s）, the runoff in YeSR would decrease in the following 30 years （2010-2039）, especially in the non-flooding season. Thus the water shortage in the mid- stream and downstream of the Yellow River Basin would be serious continuously. The runoff in YaSR would increase, especially in the flooding season, thus the flood control situation would be severe. The runoff in LcSR would also be greater than the current runoff, and the annual and flooding season runoff would not change significantly, while the runoff variation in the non-flooding season is uncertain. It would increase significantly in the B1 scenario of CSIRO model but decrease significantly in B1 scenario of NCAR model. Furlhermore, the most sensitive region to climate change is YaSR, followed by YeSR and LcSR.

Long-term variations in runoff of the Syr Darya River Basin under climate change and human activities

In this study,we analyzed the hydrological and meteorological data from the Syr Darya River Basin during the period of 1930–2015 to investigate variations in river runoff and the impacts of climate change and human activities on river runoff.The Syr Darya River,which is supplied by snow and glacier meltwater upstream,is an important freshwater source for Central Asia,as nearly half of the population is concentrated in this area.River runoff in this arid region is sensitive to climate change and human activities.Therefore,estimation of the climatic and hydrological changes and the quantification of the impacts of climate change and human activities on river runoff are of great concern and important for regional water resources management.The long-term trends of hydrological time series from the selected 11 hydrological stations in the Syr Darya River Basin were examined by non-parametric methods,including the Pettitt change point test and Mann-Kendall trend tests.It was found that 8 out of 11 hydrological stations showed significant downward trends in river runof f.Change of river runoff variations occurred in the year around 1960.Moreover,during the study period(1930–2015),annual mean temperature,annual precipitation,and annual potential evapotranspiration in the river basin increased substantially.We employed hydrological sensitivity method to evaluate the impacts of climate change and human activities on river runoff based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration.It was estimated that human activities accounted for over 82.6%–98.7%of the reduction in river runoff,mainly owing to water withdrawal for irrigation purpose.The observed variations in river runoff can subsequently lead to adverse ecological consequences from an ecological and regional water resources management perspective.

Calculation of instream ecological water requirements under runoff variation conditions:Taking Xitiaoxi River in Taihu Lake Basin as an example

Climate change and human activity can cause remarkable hydrological variation.Traits of hydrological series such as runoff before and after the change points could be significantly different,so the calculation of instream ecological water requirements(EWRs)is confronted with more challenges.Taking the Xitiaoxi River(XTXR)in the upper reach of the Taihu Lake Basin as an example,this paper investigates the calculation of EWRs using the range of variability approach(RVA)under changing environment.The change point diagnosis of the natural and observed runoff series are conducted for XTXR.Then,differences in the hydrological alternation indicators and instream EWRs processes obtained from various daily runoff series are compared.It was found that the natural and observed annual runoff series in XTXR from 1957 to 2018 both show significant variations,and the change points are in 2007 and 1999 respectively.If runoff data before the change points or all runoff data are used,the instream EWRs obtained from natural runoff are significantly lower than those obtained from the observed runoff.At the monthly time step,EWRs differences within a year mainly occurred from May to August.Also,calculation results of the instream EWRs are strongly related to the selected period of runoff series.The EWRs obtained using runoff series after the change points have rather acute fluctuation within a year.Therefore,when the RVA method is used under changing environment,the instream EWRs should be prudently determined by comparing different calculation results on the basis of river runoff restoration and variability analysis.To a certain extent,this paper enriches our understanding about the hydrological method for EWRs estimation,and proposes new ideas for future research on EWRs.

Variations and trends of trans-boundary runoff in the longitudinal range-gorge region

The mountainous hydrological process usually shows high variation to climate change and human action. In the Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region（LRGR）, Southwestern China and Southeast Asian, the transboundary runoff variations are much more sensitive and complex under the interaction of climate change, ＂corridor-barrier＂ functions in LRGR,and dams building. In this paper, based on the long hydrological records（1956-2013） from three mainstream hydrological stations in Nu River,Lancang River, and Red River, the region runoff variations were analyzed. The results show out： i） the regional runoff changes were strongly influenced by the ＂Corridor-Barrier＂ functions in LRGR from west to east, the variability extent of annual runoff increased, but tended to decrease after 2009 and the reduced extents also increased; ii） the annual runoff change in the three rivers had high concentration degrees; iii） there were periodicities of 33 years of runoff change in Nu River and Lancang River, and 30 years in Red River, and the lower flow period would continue for 8-9 years in Nu River and Lancang River but only for 4 years in Red River; iv） since 2010, as the two mega dams of Xiaowan and Nuozhadu built in Lancang River mainstream, their variations of annual runoff were quite different. The research results could offer a scientific base for sustainable utilization,conservation, and management of the regional water resources

Regional climate response to global warming in the source region of the Yellow River and its impact on runoff

The source region of the Yellow River has experienced obvious climate and discharge changes in recent decades due to global warming, which largely affects the water resources and ecological and environmental security in the Yellow River basin. This study analyzed the changes in runoff and several climate factors in the source region of the Yellow River based on the observed discharges at the Tangnag hydrological station, routine meteorological data from China Meteorological Administration(CMA) stations within and near this source region, and several evaporation datasets. The results indicate that the runoff in the source region was relatively abundant from 1960 to 1989 and then declined sharply afterward. It recovered slightly after 2005 but was still below normal—10% less than that during 1960–1989. Similarly, the precipitation amounts in the source region were relatively low in the 1990s, but they increased significantly after 2003, with an average increase of 31.4 mm or 6% more when compared to that in 1960–1989. In addition, the temperatures in the source region continued to rise from 1960 to 2017, and the evaporation levels also showed an upward trend after 1990. The influences of the spatial and temporal variations in climatic factors on runoff in the source region were then further analyzed. The results indicate that the decreases in precipitation and the number of days of heavy rainfall in the source region from 1990 to 2002 were important reasons for the lower runoff during this period. After 2003, the precipitation in the southeastern part of the source region, which is a key area for runoff generation,increased only to a limited extent, but the evaporation in the entire source region generally increased with increasing temperature,which might have led to the low capacity for actual runoff production in each subbasin and persistent low runoff in the source region. Therefore, such a climate response to global warming in the source region might be unfavorable for increased runoff in the future. The above analysis provides a valuable reference for the future planning and management of water resources in the source region of the Yellow River and the entire Yellow River Basin in the context of warming.

Divergent responses of runoff to climate change in the upper basins of the Third Pole dominated by westerlies and monsoon

The diverse climates,distribution of snow and glaciers,and geographic locations directly affect the runoff response to climate change in the upper basins of the Third Pole.At present,a comprehensive analysis of runoff variations and their distinct responses to climate change in the westerlies-and monsoon-dominated upper basins is still lacking.This study comprehensively analyzed annual runoff variations in westerlies-dominated basins(the upper basins of the Aksu(UAKS),Syr Darya(USRD),Yarkant(UYK),Hotan(UHT),Amu Darya(UAMD),and Indus(UI))and monsoon-dominated basins(the upper basins of the Yangtze(UYA),Yellow(UYE),Lancang(ULC),Nujiang(UNJ),and Yarlung Zangbo(UYZ))of the Third Pole from 1961 to2015.Using multi-source meteorological data and large-scale circulation factors,this study investigated the divergent responses of runoff in the upper basins to climate change,and explored the large-scale circulation mechanisms underlying runoff variations in these upper basins.The results showed that:(1)The annual runoff in the majority of upper basins(except for the UYE and UYZ)exhibited an increasing trend,and the annual runoff in the UAKS,UYK,and UI showed a significant increasing trend from1961 to 2015.The annual runoff in the upper basins of the Third Pole changed abruptly from decreasing to increasing between the 1980s and 2000s,with the exception of the UYE.(2)The runoff in the monsoon-dominated upper basins has been controlled primarily by changes in precipitation over the past 55 years.In contrast,the runoff in the westerlies-dominated upper basins exhibited three distinct long-term responses to climate change:temperature-dominated(UYK and UHT),precipitation-dominated(USRD and UAMD),and the combined influence of precipitation and temperature(UAKS and UI).Since the 1960s,the sensitivity of runoff to warm season temperature changes in the most westerlies-dominated upper basins has decreased,while the response of runoff to precipitation changes has intensified.(3)The study revealed the connection between large-scale circulation,climate,and runoff in the upper basins of the Third Pole.The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,the Westerly Index,and the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation predominantly impact the precipitation or temperature in the upper basins of the Third Pole,which in turn affect the runoff variations in the upper basins dominated by either the westerlies or the monsoon.This study will be a valuable scientific reference for water resource management and climate change adaptation for both the westerlies-and monsoon-dominated upper basins in the Third Pole.