Empirical Study on the Impact of Rural Labor Force Flow on the Price of Agricultural Products——A Method Based on VEC Model

Based on the research introduction of domestic and foreign scholars,dynamic equilibrium between the rural labor force flow and the price of agricultural product is analyzed by VEC model,according to the data of the rural labor force flow and the price of agricultural products in the years 1990-2007.Chows breakpoint test is used to measure the stage characteristics of the impact of rural labor force flow on the price of agricultural product.Result shows that there is a long-term and stationary relationship between the flow quantity of rural labor force and the price of agricultural product.Rural labor force flow,as an exogenous force,affects the agricultural production,and further influences the price fluctuation of agricultural products.Impact of rural labor force flow on the price of agricultural product is from weak to strong,then grows gradually weaker,and reaches its peak value at the year 1998.With the development of rural society and economy and the market process,rural labor force flow endogenously affects the price of agricultural product,which has periodic characteristics.In order to achieve a dual stabilization of the rural labor force flow and the price of agricultural products,the following countermeasures are put forward:vigorously developing vocational education,increasing the support for agricultural production,and making active employment measures.

Study on the Quantity and Age Structure of Rural Surplus Labor Force in China

Based on the data from the Second National Agriculture Census in 2006, this paper analyzed the absolute quantity and age structure of China rural surplus labor force by the classical approach. It showed that the migration of rural labor force was still far away from ＂Lewis turning point＂, and ＂mingong huang＂ （ shortage of peasant workforce） appearing in coastal areas could be explained with the location separation between the labor-intensive industries and rural labor force. It was a feasible and an effective way to push forward the transfer of labor-intensive industries from the east coast to central and Western China to absorb the abundant supply of rural labor force.

The Design of the Assistant Decision Support System of Cross-Regional Rural Labor Flow

The framework of the assistant decision support system of cross-regional rural labor flow is established,the system combines the cross-regional rural labor flow with DSS,which provides the leaders with the maximum assistant decision-making function in the regulation and guidance of rural labors as well as in relevant programs.The assistant decision support system functions are discussed,the function modules of this system are introduced from four aspects,including the analysis of labor flow,the prediction of labor flow,the regulation of cross-regional flow and the configuration of decision support system;based on the data base obtained from dynamic tracking of the migrant workers and combining other data sources,the data warehouse model is established,for example,in the analysis of the labor migration times,a star multi-dimensional data model is designed from the time dimension,place dimension,the type of work dimension,accompaniers dimension and so on;the trans-regional flow of rural labor force is analyzed and predicted by using OLAP from the labor's migration times,migration places and other various perspectives.The operation principles of the assistant decision support system of trans-regional labor flow are introduced,it is pointed out that the system serves the policy-makers of the regulation of labor flow and other relevant enterprises,the system will play an important role in the tracking monitoring and cross-regional regulation of the rural labor flow.

Demand,Supply and Surplus of Agricultural Labor Force in China

China's economy enjoys the prominent characteristics of a dual structure,with a severe surplus in the agricultural labor force.Scholars in China and overseas have conducted extensive research on the issue of labor surplus and have developed estimates on the size and percentage of surplus labor.The results,however,vary considerably due to the differences in methods and data sources.Based on existing research and using the National Agricultural Costs and Returns Compilation as the data source,this paper proposes that the size of the agricultural surplus labor force is only 8,520,000 persons,accounting for 2.1% of the total rural labor force.

The relationship between rural surplus labor transfer,urbanization and income gap

Based on the time series data of Shandong province from 2001 to 2018,a VAR model consisting of three variables,namely,rural surplus labor transfer,urbanization and urban-rural income gap,was constructed,and the interaction among the three variables and their characteristics were empirically analyzed.The results show that urbanization and rural surplus labor transfer are Granger causation to each other,and there is a positive correlation between urban-rural income gap and rural surplus labor force in long-term equilibrium,while there is a negative correlation between urban-rural income gap and rural surplus labor force transfer.Therefore,it is necessary to fully recognize the relationship between the transfer of rural surplus labor,urbanization and urban-rural income gap,accelerate the urbanization construction,promote the rural surplus labor to gather in cities,and gradually narrow the urban-rural income gap.

Investment Problems of China Rural Human Capital

The rural human capital refers to the condensation of the physical body, knowledge, skills, and all the abilities that can improve the capacity of the rural labor productivity. The ability is a form of human capital stock and it plays an important role in China＇s development of rural economy and society, but at present the situation of investment in human capital in rural areas is not optimistic. A lot of problems need to be solved such as the inadequate total investment and the irrational structure, as to these issues, strategies and recommendations were proposed in order to strengthen the human capital investment.

Cultivating New-type Farmers Based on the Theory of Human Resources Development

Under the direction of theory of human resources development,this thesis analyzes the impact of rural human resources development oncultivating new-type farmers.Firstly,it increases the input of rural basic education;secondly,it reinforces the vocational education and technologytraining;thirdly,it promotes the rural medical and public health services;fourthly,it quickens the rural labor transfer.The status quo of China's ruralhuman resources has been analyzed as follows:in terms of the quantity of rural human resources,the status quo is large and quick-developed baseof rural human resources,high labor participatory rate,and constitution of low age;in terms of the quality of rural human resources,the status quois the ubiquitous low quality of rural human resources,low technological level of rural human resources,and overall low physical quality of farmers;in terms of the structure of rural human resources,the status quo is the irrational industrial structure distribution and imbalanced regional structuredistribution.The thesis also discusses the edification of theory of human resources development in cultivating new-type farmers.First,in terms ofthe control over quantity of rural human resources,it is to keep the stability of family planning policy,and expedite the transfer of rural surplus la-bor;second,in terms of promoting the quality of rural human resources,it is to bolster the development of reserve rural labor force resources,toconstruct the adult educational training system with Chinese characteristics,and to build rural primary health care system;third,in terms of adjus-ting the structure of rural human resources,it is to perfect rural human resources market,and adjust rural economical structure and talents struc-ture.