Income Growth,Income Gaps,and Rural Poverty Reduction in China

This paper analyzes the evolving trends in China’s rural poverty from 1988 to 2018 and how income growth and income gaps contributed to poverty reduction using rural household data from the China Household Income Project(CHIP).We find that after China’s reform and opening up policy introduced in 1978,China’s rural poverty has been reduced substantially due primarily to income growth,although this poverty-reducing effect was partially offset by widening income gaps.During the progress of this poverty reduction,however,income distribution replaced income growth as the key driver.For the extremely poor in particular,their poverty status hinged upon income distribution.As revealed by our empirical analysis of income sources,wage income became the chief source of income for rural households,contributing a rising share to poverty reduction in the countryside.The contribution of net income from government transfer to poverty reduction has increased in recent years,and this contribution has been increased with the deepening level of poverty.Calculation of the pro-poor growth index suggests that the poor population primarily benefited from the trickle-down effect of economic growth,and the economic growth pattern has yet to lean towards pro-poor growth.

The effects of social security expenditure on reducing income inequality and rural poverty in China

Social security has,as one of its primary aims,the provision of financial support to those deemed to be poor or facing the threat of poverty.Based on China's national statistical data covering social insurance,social assistance,and social welfare between the period 1978–2018,this paper evaluates the effect of social security expenditure in reducing income inequality and rural poverty with cointegration analysis.It was found that there is a positive correlation between social security expenditure and the income gap of urban and rural residents in the long run,but the effect is very limited;nearly 99%of the changes of the urban–rural income gap come from its own contributions.Further research also shows that the elasticity of rural poverty incidence to social security expenditure is–0.2255,which indicates social security expenditure helps reduce rural absolute poverty.Based on these findings,the policy implications can be that much social security expenditure and a more equitable social security system should be encouraged.It will become one of the major anti-poverty strategies after 2020 in China when we win the battle against absolute poverty.

Rural transformation,income growth,and poverty reduction by region in China in the past four decades

China has experienced rapid rural transformation in the past four decades.Accompanying the rapid transformation is a significant rise in rural household income and a substantial fall in rural poverty.This paper examines the evolutions of and the relationships between rural transformation(high-value agriculture and rural non-farm employment)and its outcomes(per capita rural income and rural poverty incidence)using provincial-level data.The results show that 31 provinces/autonomous regions/municipalities have undergone significant rural transformation,but the level and speed of rural transformation differed considerably.Moreover,an increased level of rural transformation is often associated with higher per capita rural income and reduced rural poverty incidence.Notably,a category of provincial rural transformation based on high-value agriculture and rural non-farm employment is also analyzed.We further discuss the likely impacts of institutions,policies,and investments(IPIs)on rural transformation and conclude with policy implications.

Developing strategy for rural transformation to alleviate poverty in Pakistan:Stylized facts from panel analysis

Sustainable income growth and poverty reduction remain critical challenges at the forefront of research in Pakistan,particularly in rural areas.To overcome these challenges,the role of rural transformation(RT)has emerged and gained importance in recent years.The present study is based on district-level data and covers the period from 1981 to 2019.The study attempts to quantify the role of rural transformation in boosting rural per capita income and alleviating rural poverty in the country.The study also aims to explore the impact of stages of rural transformation on rural per capita income and rural poverty alleviation.The empirical findings reveal that rural transformation(RT_(1)and RT_(2))is essential in enhancing rural per capita income and alleviating rural poverty.The role of the share of high-value crops(RT_(1))is more pronounced than the share of non-farm employment(RT_(2))in boosting rural per capita income and poverty alleviation.The trend of larger contribution of RT_(1)to enhance rural per capita income also continued at 2nd stage of rural transformation.In the case of poverty reduction,at 3rd stage of rural transformation,the role of RT_(2)is dominant.Our results indicate that districts at higher stages of rural transformation(both RT_(1)and RT_(2))tend to correlate positively with increased rural per capita income and reduced poverty rates,suggesting that progress in rural transformation is associated with improved economic conditions.However,it is important to note that this correlation does not necessarily imply a direct causal relationship between rural transformation and these economic outcomes;other factors may have influenced this relationship.In addition,the welfare impacts are more noticeable among the districts where a simultaneous shift from grain crops to cash crops and from farm employment to non-farm employment is observed.The study provides baseline information to learn experiences from fast-growing districts and to replicate the strategies in other districts,which boosts the RT process that may increase rural per capita income and enhance poverty reduction efforts.

Economic Growth and Anti-Poverty ii Rural China

Based on CHIP （Chinese household income project） survey data, this paper estimated the changes of absolute poverty and income disparity for the period of 1988-2002, as well as the impact of income growth and changes in income distribution on poverty reduction in rural China. The results show that absolute rural poverty fell sharply during this period, regardless of where the poverty line is set. Both the decomposition of poverty and the panel data analysis demonstrate that income growth causes a fall in poverty.

Gradient Effect on Farmers' Income in the Mountain Areas and its Implication for Poverty Alleviation Strategies:Empirical Analysis from the Upper Reach of Minjiang River,China

Using four types of settlements in the upper reach of Minjiang River as case,we establish structural models in farmers' income of different settlement patterns based on rural household panel data to reveal the gradient effect on farmers' income and determinants.The results indicate that:(1) except the resettlement area,the incomes for farmers living in river valley,semi-mountain,and high-mountain settlements present a decreasing trend with the elevation increasing;on the contrary,their nonfarm earnings show an increasing trend with the elevation decreasing;(2) from the effect on farmers' income,there is a common feature that the nonfarm earnings and farming incomes have significant positive effects,and family size and productive expenditure have significant negative effects.One exception to this is the productive expenditure,which becomes insignificant in the model of resettlement area;(3) from the way of increasing farmers' income and alleviating poverty,there are great differences for four types of settlements in mountain areas,however,the improvement of agricultural product sales,agricultural production subsidies,the expansion for nonfarm employment,and the control of the family's size are the most effective approaches for poverty alleviation.

The dynamic impact of income and income distribution on food consumption among adults in rural China

Previous studies have demonstrated that income has a significant effect on food demand in rural China. However, little research has focused on the dynamic impact of income and income distribution on food demand in rural China. Using China Health and Nutrition Survey data, this study employs a consistent two-step quadratic almost ideal demand system model, with addressed problems of endogeneity of total expenditure and zero shares, to estimate the food demand elasticities among adults in rural areas with regard to the different income strata. The results show that changes in income and income strata have significant effects on food demand in rural areas. Except for grains, all other food groups, including vegetables, oils and fats, animal products, and other foods, have positive income elasticities, and the rise in the income strata will lead to declining income elasticities for grains, vegetables, oils and fats, and animal products. Based on the estimated income elasticities, the food consumption projections indicate that reducing income inequality in rural society can improve the living standard of low-income people in terms of nutrient intakes.

Employment and income of rural migrants in cities

This paper gives a detailed examination of the overall conditions,poverty and income of rural migrants over recent years,using results of the survey on rural migrants from 69,000 rural households and more than 7,100 administrative villages in 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions,conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics(NBS)in 2004,as well as questionnaires in the four cities of Guangzhou,Beijing,Nanjing and Lanzhou conducted by our task force in 2007,together with on-site research in places like Guangzhou,Bozhou and Xi’an.This paper presents a comprehensive delineation of the conditions and problems facing rural migrants and sets out policy recommendations.

Empirical Analysis of Relationship between Farmers'Income Structure and Consumption in Guizhou Province in the Context of Large-scale Poverty Alleviation

Large-scale poverty alleviation is one of the three major strategic actions of Guizhou Province to plan for leapfrog development.Through building an econometric model,this paper made an empirical analysis of relationship between farmers'income structure and consumption in Guizhou Province in the context of large-scale poverty alleviation.The results show that the wage income and transfer income of rural residents in Guizhou Province have a significant impact on the promotion of their consumption,and the impact of income from household business operation is also significant,but the impact is relatively weak,while the contribution of farmers'property income to their consumption is insufficient.Finally,in view of the problems in the relationship between the income structure and consumption of farmers in Guizhou Province,it came up with policy recommendations including broadening the income channels,increasing farmers'income,improving the income structure,and promoting farmers'consumption.

Global Income Inequality and Poverty Reduction:Trends and Remedies

There is a global consensus that world economy need not only grow faster,but also grow in a way that the poor receive a greater share of the benefits of that growth.It is well documented that income inequality is on the rise,with the richest 10%earning up to 40%of total global income.The poorest 10%earn only between 2%and 7%of total global income.After long time of neglect,inequality has re-entered the mainstream development policy agenda at both national and global levels indicating that relevant policies should be universal in principle paying attention to the needs of disadvantaged and marginalized populations.As highlighted in almost all SDG’s documents,income inequality is a global problem that requires global solutions.This involves improving the regulation and monitoring of financial markets and institutions,encouraging development assistance and foreign direct investment to regions where the need is greatest.Facilitating the safe migration and mobility of people is also key to bridging the widening divide.SDG 10 encompasses 10 targets with the objective of promoting social,economic,and political inclusion of all,irrespective of age,sex,disability,race,ethnicity,origin,religion,or economic or other status.Achieving SDG 10 reaffirms that the 2030 development agenda will focus not only on eradicating poverty but also on tackling inequalities in all its forms through adopting sound policies to empower the bottom percentile of income earners,and promote economic inclusion of all regardless of sex,race,or ethnicity.This paper analyses the resent status of income inequality and its relationship with economic growth and poverty in selected developing countries.The paper highlights that there is a triangular relationship between income distribution,poverty and economic growth;while accelerated economic growth is a primary factor in reducing poverty,inequalities can constrain poverty reduction significantly.

Poverty alleviation through e-commerce:Village involvement and demonstration policies in rural China

The diffusion of e-commerce has played a significant role in recent rural economic development in China.E-commerce is also considered as an efficient channel to alleviate poverty in rural China.Voluminous studies have investigated the contribution of e-commerce to agricultural development,yet it is lacking empirical evidence as to the effects of e-commerce on rural poverty alleviation.Since the year of 2014,in order to develop rural e-commerce,Chinese government launched the National Rural E-commerce Comprehensive Demonstration Project.This gradual involvement policy offered a natural experiment for evaluation of e-commerce.Based on village-level survey data from rural China and Heckit method,our study finds that rural e-commerce has a significantly positive effect on rural income.Moreover,the effect is inverted U-shaped for the relative-poverty villages.The estimation of the propensity scores matching model confirms that the results are robust.The following policy recommendations are proposed:(1)policy support to rural e-commerce should prioritize the povertystricken villages.By doing so,the marginal income effects of e-commerce will be maximized.(2)Investment in internet infrastructure and establishment of human resources for e-commerce in rural areas will have spillover effects,increasing rural income through the"digital dividend".

Targeted Poverty Alleviation Lies in Precisely Identifying the Poverty–Stricken Population: An Analysis of the Targeting Effect of the Rural Subsistence Allowance Policy

Poverty–stricken populations must be identified precisely in the fight against poverty to implement the strategy of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects by 2020. The analysis based on the household survey in 2013 shows that the targeting accuracy is not high based on the standard of income and the accuracy is higher based on the standard of multidimensional poverty index. But the latter still has a low coverage rate. To gradually achieve integration of the rural poverty line and the rural subsistence allowance line, standards applied to identifying households entitled to subsistence allowances should be changed from the standard of income to multidimensional poverty indexes. A unified standard of subsistence allowances and a unified method for identifying related households should be developed. At the same time, coverage and funding of subsistence allowances should be extended and increased to better meet people's basic needs.

The Current Income Distribution in China

The current pattern of income distribution in China is the result of long- term evolu-tion. If China＇ s economic growth is a successful case in the history of human economic develop-ment,it can be said that China＇ s income distribution is an unsuccessful case. Successful economicgrowth and unsuccessful income distribution are the characteristics o~ China＇ s economic transforma-tion and development. This is perhaps due to a vision of ＂first growth, later distribution＂ of the Chi-nese government at all levels, and development strategy of＂ sacrificing fairness for efficiency＂, and the＂selective reform＂ mode of economic transformation. Objectively speaking, as for China income dis-tribution pattern at present time, there are several reasons, such as choice of development strategy,mode of economic transformation, resistance of interest groups. The reform of income distributionsystem should be pushed forward sooner rather than later, should be fast rather than slow.

Causes for Middle Income Trap and Recommendations for China's Leaping Paths

The middle income trap is an objective challenge faced in the development of the economy. There is provision in both the amount and time. It is worth studying why some Latin American countries have fallen into this trap for decades. This paper analyzed the causes for the middle income trap of Latin American economies. On this basis,it came up with recommendations for China's leaping paths,including accelerating the structural reforms on the supply front to promote industrial transformation and upgrading,deepening the reform and increasing the efficiency with institutional innovation as the core,protecting legitimate property rights,reforming the income distribution,combining accurate poverty alleviation,narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor,performing administration according to laws,vigorously developing education,expanding the opening up,and keeping sustainable growth,so as to successfully leap over the middle income trap.

新时代缩小城乡收入差距与迈向共同富裕

城乡收入差距是一个自然历史过程。缩小城乡收入差距是治国理政的必然选择,根本路径是在遵循客观规律的基础上,通过治国理政过程来抬高差距的底部和削平差距的顶部。抬高差距底部是减少或者消除绝对贫困,主要是提高农民收入水平,消除农村绝对贫困;既抬高差距底部又削平差距顶部,就是减缓两极分化,扎实推进共同富裕。我国缩小城乡收入差距与脱贫攻坚、迈向共同富裕是正相关的。实证研究表明,与国家实施精准扶贫战略(2012—2020年)一致,城乡绝对收入差距的底部呈逐步抬升趋势,意味着我国逐步摆脱绝对贫困;预测研究表明,在新时代新征程,城乡相对收入差距将呈现底部与顶部逐步收窄的态势,缩小城乡相对收入差距是推进共同富裕的重要路径。

再分配视域下河北省人口老龄化与城乡收入不平等的关系分析

再分配作为调节收入分配的重要工具,在实现共同富裕目标中发挥着重要作用。河北省作为人口大省,日益加重的人口老龄化对经济社会发展、城乡收入等产生了重要影响。研究发现:一方面,河北省人口老龄化拉大了城乡收入差距,加剧了城乡收入不平等,尤其是在二线城市和大规模城市中,人口老龄化引致的城乡收入不平等效应更加明显;另一方面,经济增长作为“做大蛋糕”和“分好蛋糕”的原动力,能够有效“对冲”人口老龄化对城乡收入分配不公的负面影响,而人口老龄化倒逼技术进步又在一定程度上加剧了城乡收入不平等。因此,河北省不仅要做大“财富蛋糕”,更要使全体社会成员共享“经济蛋糕”,以此加速推进共同富裕进程。

收入增长与相对贫困治理——一种新的相对贫困变动测度模型及应用

本文构建一种新的相对贫困变动测度指数(Measurement Index of Relative Poverty Change,简称RPC指数)来测度一段时期内相对贫困的变动。为分析收入增长对相对贫困的减贫效果,本文进一步构建RPC指数的分解模型,既可测度相对贫困群体及社会总体分项收入增长对相对贫困变动的影响和贡献,也可测度样本分组内部相对贫困变动及其对总体相对贫困变动的贡献。基于RPC指数及其分解模型,本文采用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2014年至2020年4期家庭人均收入面板数据,分析我国城乡居民收入增长对相对贫困变动的影响。研究发现,社会整体收入增长不具有自动消减相对贫困的作用;相较于中位数收入,以平均收入为基数制定相对贫困线能更敏锐地反映居民收入增长分布的合理性;城乡居民分项收入的增长对相对贫困变动的影响不尽相同,在治理相对贫困时需予以不同的考量。

乡村产业振兴的农民农村共同富裕效应

实现农民农村共同富裕面临着农民增收渠道少和持续性差等现实问题,以及城乡收入差距、区域收入差距和农村内部收入差距三大挑战,乡村产业振兴为解决这些问题提供了新思路。使用2011—2020年中国30个省份的面板数据,采用FGLS和PCSE回归方法实证检验了乡村产业振兴对农民农村共同富裕的影响。研究结果表明,加快乡村产业振兴有助于实现农民可支配收入增长和农民三大收入差距缩小兼得的共同富裕效应,这一结论在经过内生性和稳健性检验后依然成立。进一步研究发现,乡村产业振兴对农民工资性收入和经营净收入的促进作用明显大于对转移性收入和财产性收入的促进作用,对缩小城乡收入差距的作用大于对缩小区域收入差距和农村内部收入差距的作用。异质性分析发现,在乡村产业振兴高水平地区,乡村产业振兴可以促进农民可支配收入增长和缩小三大收入差距,即可实现富裕效应和共同效应;在乡村产业振兴低水平地区,乡村产业振兴仅对农民可支配收入增长和城乡收入差距产生显著影响。

我国中等收入群体的成长机制及其区域差异

二十大报告指出:“中国式现代化是全体人民共同富裕的现代化。”扩大中等收入群体是实现全体人民共同富裕的重要途径。本文首先在理论上从需求侧和供给侧两端建构了推动中等收入群体成长的机制框架,接着使用CGSS2010—2021年调查数据,对不同地区中等收入群体的成长过程与成长机制进行了系统分析。研究发现,在不同地区,中等收入群体的整体成长以及中等收入群体内部结构变化都不一样;经济发展未必一定推动中等收入群体的成长,收入再分配政策与经济结构升级也发挥着重要作用。本文强调,要想有效扩大中等收入群体,必须加强有关具体政策效果的实证分析。