The paper presents an innovative approach towards agricultural insurance underwriting and risk pricing through the development of an Extreme Machine Learning (ELM) Actuarial Intelligent Model. This model integrates di...The paper presents an innovative approach towards agricultural insurance underwriting and risk pricing through the development of an Extreme Machine Learning (ELM) Actuarial Intelligent Model. This model integrates diverse datasets, including climate change scenarios, crop types, farm sizes, and various risk factors, to automate underwriting decisions and estimate loss reserves in agricultural insurance. The study conducts extensive exploratory data analysis, model building, feature engineering, and validation to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Additionally, the paper discusses the application of robust tests, stress tests, and scenario tests to assess the model’s resilience and adaptability to changing market conditions. Overall, the research contributes to advancing actuarial science in agricultural insurance by leveraging advanced machine learning techniques for enhanced risk management and decision-making.展开更多
Objectives This paper aims to investigate the effects of enrollment in the Ethiopian community-based health insurance(CBHI)scheme on household preventive care activities and the timing of treatment-seeking behavior fo...Objectives This paper aims to investigate the effects of enrollment in the Ethiopian community-based health insurance(CBHI)scheme on household preventive care activities and the timing of treatment-seeking behavior for illness symptoms.There is growing concern about the financial sustainability of CBHI schemes in developing countries.However,few empirical studies have identified potential contributors,including ex-ante and ex-post moral hazards.Methods We implement a household fixed-effect panel data regression model,drawing on three rounds of household survey data collected face to face in districts where CBHI scheme is operational and in districts where it is not operational in Ethiopia.Results The findings show that enrolment in CBHI does not significantly influence household behaviour regarding preventive care activities such as water treatment before drinking and handwashing before meals.However,CBHI significantly increases delay in treatment-seeking behaviour for diseases symptoms.Particularly,on average,we estimate about 4-6 h delay for malaria symptoms,a little above 4 h for tetanus,and 10-11 h for tuberculosis among the insured households.Conclusions While there is evidence that CBHI improve the utilization of outpatient or primary care services,our study suggests that insured members may wait longer before visiting health facilities.This delay could be partly due to moral hazard problems,as insured households,particularly those from rural areas,may consider the opportunity costs associated with visiting health facilities for minor symptoms.Overall,it is essential to identify the primary causes of delays in seeking medical services and implement appropriate interventions to encourage insured individuals to seek early medical attention.展开更多
Allianz Group recently released the Allianz Global Insurance Report,predicting that China will consolidate its position as the world’s second largest insurance market in the next decade.The report analyzes the busine...Allianz Group recently released the Allianz Global Insurance Report,predicting that China will consolidate its position as the world’s second largest insurance market in the next decade.The report analyzes the business performance of the global insurance market in 2023 and forecasts the development direction and trends of the global insurance industry in the next decade.2023:A year of significant growth According to the report,in 2023,the global insurance industry grew by an impressive 7.5%,which is the fastest rate since the pre-Global Financial Crisis(GFC)era.展开更多
Zimbabwe has witnessed the evolution of Information Communication Technology (ICT). The vehicle population soared to above 1.2 million hence rendering the Transport and Insurance domains complex. Therefore, there is a...Zimbabwe has witnessed the evolution of Information Communication Technology (ICT). The vehicle population soared to above 1.2 million hence rendering the Transport and Insurance domains complex. Therefore, there is a need to look at ways that can augment conventional Vehicular Management Information Systems (VMIS) in transforming business processes through Telematics. This paper aims to contextualise the role that telematics can play in transforming the Insurance Ecosystem in Zimbabwe. The main objective was to investigate the integration of Usage-Based Insurance (UBI) with vehicle tracking solutions provided by technology companies like Econet Wireless in Zimbabwe, aiming to align customer billing with individual risk profiles and enhance the synergy between technology and insurance service providers in the motor insurance ecosystem. A triangulation through structured interviews, questionnaires, and literature review, supported by Information Systems Analysis and Design techniques was conducted. The study adopted a case study approach, qualitatively analyzing the complexities of the Telematics insurance ecosystem in Zimbabwe, informed by the TOGAF framework. A case-study approach was applied to derive themes whilst applying within and cross-case analysis. Data was collected using questionnaires, and interviews. The findings of the research clearly show the importance of Telematics in modern-day insurance and the positive relationship between technology and insurance business performance. The study, therefore revealed how UBI can incentivize positive driver behavior, potentially reducing insurance premiums for safe drivers and lowering the incidence of claims against insurance companies. Future work can be done on studying the role of Telematics in combating highway crime and corruption.展开更多
In this paper, we discuss the optimal insurance in the presence of background risk while the insured is ambiguity averse and there exists belief heterogeneity between the insured and the insurer. We give the optimal i...In this paper, we discuss the optimal insurance in the presence of background risk while the insured is ambiguity averse and there exists belief heterogeneity between the insured and the insurer. We give the optimal insurance contract when maxing the insured’s expected utility of his/her remaining wealth under the smooth ambiguity model and the heterogeneous belief form satisfying the MHR condition. We calculate the insurance premium by using generalized Wang’s premium and also introduce a series of stochastic orders proposed by [1] to describe the relationships among the insurable risk, background risk and ambiguity parameter. We obtain the deductible insurance is the optimal insurance while they meet specific dependence structures.展开更多
We introduce a model of a market where risk-averse consumers pay a fee to transfer their future losses to one or more firms.The future loss of each consumer is stochastic with a unique,known mean and variance.The law ...We introduce a model of a market where risk-averse consumers pay a fee to transfer their future losses to one or more firms.The future loss of each consumer is stochastic with a unique,known mean and variance.The law of large numbers allows the firms to know with certainty the expected aggregate loss of the consumers to whom they sell.The model could describe the behavior of agents in the market for property insurance where an insurance company sells a single type of policy to a specific group of consumers based upon the expected losses of those consumers and their willingness to pay for coverage.The model demonstrates how a single firm can choose the optimal segment of the market to which they sell a policy and how that choice might change when the distribution of consumers and their risk aversion changes.The model also demonstrates how two firms might engage in a cooperative strategy and share the market.The model shows how a firm entering the market will find it more advantageous to target a segment of the market with consumers that have a lower expected loss.展开更多
Objective To study the influencing factors in the process of national medical insurance negotiation and drug pricing from the dualistic equilibrium perspective,and to provide reference for the harmonious management of...Objective To study the influencing factors in the process of national medical insurance negotiation and drug pricing from the dualistic equilibrium perspective,and to provide reference for the harmonious management of drug pricing in China.Methods Through the literature analysis and policy review,the pricing subject,pricing basis and price control system in the pricing process of medical-accessed medicines were analyzed from the perspective of binary equilibrium and harmonious management.Results and Conclusion It is found that four balances in the drug pricing process,two balances in pricing basis and three balances in price control system need to be considered,respectively.Drug pricing is the key content of national medical insurance access,which is also the hotspot of the policy in the pharmaceutical fields in recent years.Drug pricing not only reflects the value of drugs,but also reflects a lot of top-level designs of binary equilibriums in medical insurance policy.While the rational design of drug pricing requires the joint efforts of the government,pharmaceutical companies and relevant experts to comprehensively consider many equilibriums,so as to improve the relevant systems.展开更多
With the aging of the country’s population structure,the problem of social pensions is becoming more and more serious.As for the issue of social pension,the elderly with Alzheimer’s disease are a special group,and t...With the aging of the country’s population structure,the problem of social pensions is becoming more and more serious.As for the issue of social pension,the elderly with Alzheimer’s disease are a special group,and the issue of care services for these elderly has attracted widespread attention from society.However,judging from the current level of social security provided to the elderly with dementia in the country,there is a serious imbalance between supply and demand.Therefore,this problem needs to be solved urgently and is of great significance for further improving the country’s social pension security system.Routine care is limited to hospitals and mainly focuses on the patient’s condition.Patients fail to receive comprehensive care services and the effect is not ideal.Therefore,in order to improve patients’cognitive function and quality of life,and learn from international experience,a“community-institution-home”three-dimensional linkage care model based on long-term care insurance can be established.The application of this model can effectively solve and further improve the country’s elderly care and social security system.展开更多
BACKGROUND Type 2 diabetes mellitus(DM)is an independent risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC),while insulin is a potent mitogen.Identifying a new therapeutic modality for preventing insulin users from develop...BACKGROUND Type 2 diabetes mellitus(DM)is an independent risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC),while insulin is a potent mitogen.Identifying a new therapeutic modality for preventing insulin users from developing HCC is a critical goal for researchers.AIM To investigate whether regular herbal medicine use can decrease HCC risk in DM patients with regular insulin control.METHODS We used data acquired from the Taiwan,Chinaese National Health Insurance research database between 2000 and 2017.We identified patients with DM who were prescribed insulin for>3 months.The herb user group was further defined as patients prescribed herbal medication for DM for>3 months per annum during RESULTS We initially enrolled 657144 DM patients with regular insulin use from 2000 to 2017.Among these,46849 patients had used a herbal treatment for DM,and 140547 patients were included as the matched control group.The baseline variables were similar between the herb users and nonusers.DM patients with regular herb use had a 12%decreased risk of HCC compared with the control group[adjusted hazard ratio(aHR)=0.88,95%CI=0.80–0.97].The cumulative incidence of HCC in the herb users was significantly lower than that of the nonusers.Patients with a herb use of>5 years cumulatively exhibited a protective effect against development of HCC(aHR=0.82,P<0.05).Of patients who developed HCC,herb users exhibited a longer survival time than nonusers(aHR=0.78,P=0.0001).Additionally,we report the top 10 herbs and formulas in prescriptions and summarize the potential pharmacological effects of the constituents.Our analysis indicated that Astragalus propinquus(Huang Qi)plus Salvia miltiorrhiza Bunge(Dan Shen),and Astragalus propinquus(Huang Qi)plus Trichosanthes kirilowii Maxim.(Tian Hua Fen)were the most frequent combination of single herbs.Meanwhile,Ji Sheng Shen Qi Wan plus Dan Shen was the most frequent combination of herbs and formulas.CONCLUSION This large-scale retrospective cohort study reveals that herbal medicine may decrease HCC risk by 12%in DM patients with regular insulin use.展开更多
In this paper, the Automated Actuarial Loss Reserving Model is developed and extended using machine learning. The traditional actuarial reserving techniques are no longer compatible with the increase in technological ...In this paper, the Automated Actuarial Loss Reserving Model is developed and extended using machine learning. The traditional actuarial reserving techniques are no longer compatible with the increase in technological advancement currently at hand. As a result, the development of the alternative Artificial Intelligence Based Automated Actuarial Loss Reserving Methodology which captures diverse risk profiles for various policyholders through augmenting the Micro Finance services, Auto Insurance Services and Both Services lines of business on the same platform through the computation of the Comprehensive Automated Actuarial Loss Reserves (CAALR) has been implemented in this paper. The introduction of the four further types of actuarial loss reserves to those existing in the actuarial literature seems to significantly reduce lapse rates, reduce the reinsurance costs as well as expenses and outgo. As a matter of consequence, this helps to bring together a combination of new and existing policyholders in the insurance company. The frequency severity models have been extended in this paper using ten machine learning algorithms which ultimately leads to the derivation of the proposed machine learning-based actuarial loss reserving model which remarkably performed well when compared to the traditional chain ladder actuarial reserving method using simulated data.展开更多
Objective To analyze the reimbursement policies of innovative drugs in some developed countries,and to provide reference for future reimbursement management in China.Methods Literature research method was used to stud...Objective To analyze the reimbursement policies of innovative drugs in some developed countries,and to provide reference for future reimbursement management in China.Methods Literature research method was used to study the policies related to the reimbursement management of innovative drugs in Germany,France and Japan,and their successful experience was summarized.Results and Conclusion China should establish an open and transparent value evaluation standard to improve the medical insurance reimbursement management of innovative drugs.Besides,the value of innovative drugs should be taken as an important basis for reimbursement decisions,and an independent third-party value evaluation agency must be established.展开更多
文摘The paper presents an innovative approach towards agricultural insurance underwriting and risk pricing through the development of an Extreme Machine Learning (ELM) Actuarial Intelligent Model. This model integrates diverse datasets, including climate change scenarios, crop types, farm sizes, and various risk factors, to automate underwriting decisions and estimate loss reserves in agricultural insurance. The study conducts extensive exploratory data analysis, model building, feature engineering, and validation to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Additionally, the paper discusses the application of robust tests, stress tests, and scenario tests to assess the model’s resilience and adaptability to changing market conditions. Overall, the research contributes to advancing actuarial science in agricultural insurance by leveraging advanced machine learning techniques for enhanced risk management and decision-making.
基金The authors acknowledge the financial support of the Dutch Research Council(NWO-WOTRO)(Grant No.W07.45.103.00)and the support of D.P.Hoijer Fonds,Erasmus Trustfonds,Erasmus University Rotterdam.
文摘Objectives This paper aims to investigate the effects of enrollment in the Ethiopian community-based health insurance(CBHI)scheme on household preventive care activities and the timing of treatment-seeking behavior for illness symptoms.There is growing concern about the financial sustainability of CBHI schemes in developing countries.However,few empirical studies have identified potential contributors,including ex-ante and ex-post moral hazards.Methods We implement a household fixed-effect panel data regression model,drawing on three rounds of household survey data collected face to face in districts where CBHI scheme is operational and in districts where it is not operational in Ethiopia.Results The findings show that enrolment in CBHI does not significantly influence household behaviour regarding preventive care activities such as water treatment before drinking and handwashing before meals.However,CBHI significantly increases delay in treatment-seeking behaviour for diseases symptoms.Particularly,on average,we estimate about 4-6 h delay for malaria symptoms,a little above 4 h for tetanus,and 10-11 h for tuberculosis among the insured households.Conclusions While there is evidence that CBHI improve the utilization of outpatient or primary care services,our study suggests that insured members may wait longer before visiting health facilities.This delay could be partly due to moral hazard problems,as insured households,particularly those from rural areas,may consider the opportunity costs associated with visiting health facilities for minor symptoms.Overall,it is essential to identify the primary causes of delays in seeking medical services and implement appropriate interventions to encourage insured individuals to seek early medical attention.
文摘Allianz Group recently released the Allianz Global Insurance Report,predicting that China will consolidate its position as the world’s second largest insurance market in the next decade.The report analyzes the business performance of the global insurance market in 2023 and forecasts the development direction and trends of the global insurance industry in the next decade.2023:A year of significant growth According to the report,in 2023,the global insurance industry grew by an impressive 7.5%,which is the fastest rate since the pre-Global Financial Crisis(GFC)era.
文摘Zimbabwe has witnessed the evolution of Information Communication Technology (ICT). The vehicle population soared to above 1.2 million hence rendering the Transport and Insurance domains complex. Therefore, there is a need to look at ways that can augment conventional Vehicular Management Information Systems (VMIS) in transforming business processes through Telematics. This paper aims to contextualise the role that telematics can play in transforming the Insurance Ecosystem in Zimbabwe. The main objective was to investigate the integration of Usage-Based Insurance (UBI) with vehicle tracking solutions provided by technology companies like Econet Wireless in Zimbabwe, aiming to align customer billing with individual risk profiles and enhance the synergy between technology and insurance service providers in the motor insurance ecosystem. A triangulation through structured interviews, questionnaires, and literature review, supported by Information Systems Analysis and Design techniques was conducted. The study adopted a case study approach, qualitatively analyzing the complexities of the Telematics insurance ecosystem in Zimbabwe, informed by the TOGAF framework. A case-study approach was applied to derive themes whilst applying within and cross-case analysis. Data was collected using questionnaires, and interviews. The findings of the research clearly show the importance of Telematics in modern-day insurance and the positive relationship between technology and insurance business performance. The study, therefore revealed how UBI can incentivize positive driver behavior, potentially reducing insurance premiums for safe drivers and lowering the incidence of claims against insurance companies. Future work can be done on studying the role of Telematics in combating highway crime and corruption.
文摘In this paper, we discuss the optimal insurance in the presence of background risk while the insured is ambiguity averse and there exists belief heterogeneity between the insured and the insurer. We give the optimal insurance contract when maxing the insured’s expected utility of his/her remaining wealth under the smooth ambiguity model and the heterogeneous belief form satisfying the MHR condition. We calculate the insurance premium by using generalized Wang’s premium and also introduce a series of stochastic orders proposed by [1] to describe the relationships among the insurable risk, background risk and ambiguity parameter. We obtain the deductible insurance is the optimal insurance while they meet specific dependence structures.
文摘We introduce a model of a market where risk-averse consumers pay a fee to transfer their future losses to one or more firms.The future loss of each consumer is stochastic with a unique,known mean and variance.The law of large numbers allows the firms to know with certainty the expected aggregate loss of the consumers to whom they sell.The model could describe the behavior of agents in the market for property insurance where an insurance company sells a single type of policy to a specific group of consumers based upon the expected losses of those consumers and their willingness to pay for coverage.The model demonstrates how a single firm can choose the optimal segment of the market to which they sell a policy and how that choice might change when the distribution of consumers and their risk aversion changes.The model also demonstrates how two firms might engage in a cooperative strategy and share the market.The model shows how a firm entering the market will find it more advantageous to target a segment of the market with consumers that have a lower expected loss.
文摘Objective To study the influencing factors in the process of national medical insurance negotiation and drug pricing from the dualistic equilibrium perspective,and to provide reference for the harmonious management of drug pricing in China.Methods Through the literature analysis and policy review,the pricing subject,pricing basis and price control system in the pricing process of medical-accessed medicines were analyzed from the perspective of binary equilibrium and harmonious management.Results and Conclusion It is found that four balances in the drug pricing process,two balances in pricing basis and three balances in price control system need to be considered,respectively.Drug pricing is the key content of national medical insurance access,which is also the hotspot of the policy in the pharmaceutical fields in recent years.Drug pricing not only reflects the value of drugs,but also reflects a lot of top-level designs of binary equilibriums in medical insurance policy.While the rational design of drug pricing requires the joint efforts of the government,pharmaceutical companies and relevant experts to comprehensively consider many equilibriums,so as to improve the relevant systems.
文摘With the aging of the country’s population structure,the problem of social pensions is becoming more and more serious.As for the issue of social pension,the elderly with Alzheimer’s disease are a special group,and the issue of care services for these elderly has attracted widespread attention from society.However,judging from the current level of social security provided to the elderly with dementia in the country,there is a serious imbalance between supply and demand.Therefore,this problem needs to be solved urgently and is of great significance for further improving the country’s social pension security system.Routine care is limited to hospitals and mainly focuses on the patient’s condition.Patients fail to receive comprehensive care services and the effect is not ideal.Therefore,in order to improve patients’cognitive function and quality of life,and learn from international experience,a“community-institution-home”three-dimensional linkage care model based on long-term care insurance can be established.The application of this model can effectively solve and further improve the country’s elderly care and social security system.
基金the National Science and Technology Council of Taiwan,China,No.NSC112-2320-B-039-045-China Medical University Hospital,No.DMR-111-013,No.DMR-111-195,No.DMR-112-004 and No.DMR-112-177Department of Chinese Medicine and Pharmacy and Ministry of Health and Welfare,No.MOHW-112-CMC-03.
文摘BACKGROUND Type 2 diabetes mellitus(DM)is an independent risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC),while insulin is a potent mitogen.Identifying a new therapeutic modality for preventing insulin users from developing HCC is a critical goal for researchers.AIM To investigate whether regular herbal medicine use can decrease HCC risk in DM patients with regular insulin control.METHODS We used data acquired from the Taiwan,Chinaese National Health Insurance research database between 2000 and 2017.We identified patients with DM who were prescribed insulin for>3 months.The herb user group was further defined as patients prescribed herbal medication for DM for>3 months per annum during RESULTS We initially enrolled 657144 DM patients with regular insulin use from 2000 to 2017.Among these,46849 patients had used a herbal treatment for DM,and 140547 patients were included as the matched control group.The baseline variables were similar between the herb users and nonusers.DM patients with regular herb use had a 12%decreased risk of HCC compared with the control group[adjusted hazard ratio(aHR)=0.88,95%CI=0.80–0.97].The cumulative incidence of HCC in the herb users was significantly lower than that of the nonusers.Patients with a herb use of>5 years cumulatively exhibited a protective effect against development of HCC(aHR=0.82,P<0.05).Of patients who developed HCC,herb users exhibited a longer survival time than nonusers(aHR=0.78,P=0.0001).Additionally,we report the top 10 herbs and formulas in prescriptions and summarize the potential pharmacological effects of the constituents.Our analysis indicated that Astragalus propinquus(Huang Qi)plus Salvia miltiorrhiza Bunge(Dan Shen),and Astragalus propinquus(Huang Qi)plus Trichosanthes kirilowii Maxim.(Tian Hua Fen)were the most frequent combination of single herbs.Meanwhile,Ji Sheng Shen Qi Wan plus Dan Shen was the most frequent combination of herbs and formulas.CONCLUSION This large-scale retrospective cohort study reveals that herbal medicine may decrease HCC risk by 12%in DM patients with regular insulin use.
文摘In this paper, the Automated Actuarial Loss Reserving Model is developed and extended using machine learning. The traditional actuarial reserving techniques are no longer compatible with the increase in technological advancement currently at hand. As a result, the development of the alternative Artificial Intelligence Based Automated Actuarial Loss Reserving Methodology which captures diverse risk profiles for various policyholders through augmenting the Micro Finance services, Auto Insurance Services and Both Services lines of business on the same platform through the computation of the Comprehensive Automated Actuarial Loss Reserves (CAALR) has been implemented in this paper. The introduction of the four further types of actuarial loss reserves to those existing in the actuarial literature seems to significantly reduce lapse rates, reduce the reinsurance costs as well as expenses and outgo. As a matter of consequence, this helps to bring together a combination of new and existing policyholders in the insurance company. The frequency severity models have been extended in this paper using ten machine learning algorithms which ultimately leads to the derivation of the proposed machine learning-based actuarial loss reserving model which remarkably performed well when compared to the traditional chain ladder actuarial reserving method using simulated data.
文摘Objective To analyze the reimbursement policies of innovative drugs in some developed countries,and to provide reference for future reimbursement management in China.Methods Literature research method was used to study the policies related to the reimbursement management of innovative drugs in Germany,France and Japan,and their successful experience was summarized.Results and Conclusion China should establish an open and transparent value evaluation standard to improve the medical insurance reimbursement management of innovative drugs.Besides,the value of innovative drugs should be taken as an important basis for reimbursement decisions,and an independent third-party value evaluation agency must be established.
