Statistical Analysis and Evaluation of Macroeconomic Policies: A Selective Review

In this paper,we highlight some recent developments of a new route to evaluate macroeconomic policy effects,which are investigated under the framework with potential outcomes.First,this paper begins with a brief introduction of the basic model setup in modern econometric analysis of program evaluation.Secondly,primary attention goes to the focus on causal effect estimation of macroeconomic policy with single time series data together with some extensions to multiple time series data.Furthermore,we examine the connection of this new approach to traditional macroeconomic models for policy analysis and evaluation.Finally,we conclude by addressing some possible future research directions in statistics and econometrics.

Assessing effect of grassland resources policies using AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation:A case study of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,China

In order to quantitatively analyze grassland resources policies of Ningxia,the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)was used to establish the evaluation index system,and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was adopted to make a comprehensive evaluation.The results indicated that the current grassland resources policies in Ningxia are in upper-middle level,and the relevant policies need to be improved.Finally,the corresponding suggestions were put forward in the hope of promoting the sustainable development of grassland resources in Ningxia.

Evaluation and scenario simulation for forest ecological security in China

Continuously growing populations and rapid economic development have led to the excessive use of forest resources,and the forest ecosystem is threatened.In response,forest ecological security(FES)has attracted attention.In this study,an integrated dynamic simulation model was constructed using the system dynamic method,and it was used to evaluate the FES in China from 1999 to 2014.A scenario analysis was then used to evaluate the changes in the FES under five forestry policy scenarios for the 2015–2050 period,including the baseline,afforestation policy,harvesting policies,management policy,investment policy,and a policy mix.The results showed that the evaluation values of the FES increased during the period from 1999 to 2002,the period from 2004 to 2010 and the year 2014,and they decreased in 2003 and during the period from 2011 to 2013.During the 2015–2050 simulation period,the FES improved continuously.In particular,China would enter a new stage when the economic systems,social systems and ecosystems were in harmony after 2040.To improve the FES and the current status of the FES,a scenario analysis showed the most suitable scenario to be Scenario 5 from 2015 to 2020 and Scenario 2 from 2021 to 2050.To relieve pressure,the most suitable scenario would be Scenario 5 from 2015 to 2040 and from 2046 to 2050,and the most suitable scenario would be Scenario 4 for 2041–2045.A policy mix(Scenario 5)would be most efficient under current conditions,while the effects of all the benefits of the forestry policies would weaken over the long term.The integrated method can be regarded as a decision support tool to help policy makers understand FES and promulgate a reasonable forestry policy.

Cancer survival statistics in China 2019-2021:a multicenter,population-based study

Background:A milestone goal of the Healthy China Program(2019-2030)is to achieve 5-year cancer survival at 43.3%for all cancers combined by 2022.To assess the progress towards this target,we analyzed the updated survival for all cancers combined and 25 specific cancer types in China from 2019 to 2021.Methods:We conducted standardized data collection and quality control for cancer registries across 32 provincial-level regions in China,and included 6,410,940 newly diagnosed cancer patients from 281 cancer registries during 2008-2019,with follow-up data on vital status available until December 2021.We estimated the age-standardized 5-year relative survival overall and by site,age group,and period of diagnosis using the International Cancer Survival Standard Weights,and quantified the survival changes to assess the progress in cancer control.Results:In 2019-2021,the age-standardized 5-year relative survival for all cancers combined was 43.7%(95%confidence interval[CI],43.6-43.7).The 5-year relative survival varied by cancer type,ranging from 8.5%(95%CI,8.2-8.7)for pancreatic cancer to 92.9%(95%CI,92.4-93.3)for thyroid cancer.Eight cancers had 5-year survival of over 60%,including cancers of the thyroid,breast,testis,bladder,prostate,kidney,uterus,and cervix.The 5-year relative survival was generally lower in males than in females.From 2008 to 2021,we observed significant survival improvements for cancers of the lung,prostate,bone,uterus,breast,cervix,nasopharynx,larynx,and bladder.The most significant improvement was in lung cancer.Conclusions:Progress in cancer control was evident in China.This highlights the importance of a comprehensive approach to control and prevent cancer.

Local Responses to Macro Development Policies and Their Effects on Rural System in China's Mountainous Regions:The Case of Shuanghe Village in Sichuan Province

China has promulgated a series of policies including the Western Development Program, the Grain for Green Project, agricultural support policies and building a new countryside strategy to eliminate east-west differences and urban-rural disparities since the late 1990s. This paper gives a holistic examination on local responses to the four typical macro socio-economic development policies and their effects on rural system based on a case study of a mountainous village in southern Sichuan Province. The results showed that the policies have not moved the case study village from its historically marginal status. To some extent, its socio-economic situation might have been worsened by accelerated out- migration of the youth, loss of agricultural land due to afforestation and industrial plants, increased fire hazard due to afforestation and reforestation, increased environmental pollution due to industrial enterprises attracted to the village and a steep decline in agricultural production due to loss of and inefficient use of cultivated land. Factors causing local villages' dilemmas include the nonuniformity of actors' objectives, finiteness of villagers' abilities, and the imperfect incentive and restraint mechanism for local government's activities under existing policy framework composed of uncoordinated one-size-fits- all policies. We suggest that China's rural policy in the new period should gradually shift from a sectoral to a place-based one, from top-down incentives to the development of bottom-up projects, and fully recognize the diversity of rural space, so as to lift localcapacities and make good use of the knowledge shared by different actors. Moreover, it is also necessary to integrate the various sectoral policies, and improve the interministerial and interdepartmental coordination of rural policies at regional and local levels.

Deep reinforcement learning using least-squares truncated temporal-difference

Policy evaluation(PE)is a critical sub-problem in reinforcement learning,which estimates the value function for a given policy and can be used for policy improvement.However,there still exist some limitations in current PE methods,such as low sample efficiency and local convergence,especially on complex tasks.In this study,a novel PE algorithm called Least-Squares Truncated Temporal-Difference learning(LST2D)is proposed.In LST2D,an adaptive truncation mechanism is designed,which effectively takes advantage of the fast convergence property of Least-Squares Temporal Difference learning and the asymptotic convergence property of Temporal Difference learning(TD).Then,two feature pre-training methods are utilised to improve the approximation ability of LST2D.Furthermore,an Actor-Critic algorithm based on LST2D and pre-trained feature representations(ACLPF)is proposed,where LST2D is integrated into the critic network to improve learning-prediction efficiency.Comprehensive simulation studies were conducted on four robotic tasks,and the corresponding results illustrate the effectiveness of LST2D.The proposed ACLPF algorithm outperformed DQN,ACER and PPO in terms of sample efficiency and stability,which demonstrated that LST2D can be applied to online learning control problems by incorporating it into the actor-critic architecture.

Analysis of Problems and Policy Recommendations for the Third-party Evaluation in the Present Poverty Alleviation

The introduction of third-party evaluation system and the implementation of third-party evaluation system in poverty alleviation is a major innovation in the targeted poverty alleviation work in China.In order to improve the third-party evaluation mechanism,further improve the efficiency of third-party evaluation,and enhance the effectiveness of targeted poverty alleviation,this paper analyzes and summarizes the main problems existing in the current third-party evaluation practice.In view of the related problems,this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations,which are believed to play a positive role in further promoting the development and improvement of the third-party evaluation of getting rid of poverty.

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Research of Goal Attainment of Green Transportation Development Policy —Take Dongguan “Motorcycle Ban” Policy as an Example

Launching the evaluation research of green transportation can grasp the green transportation implementation accurately and diagnose the existing problems. From the perspective of green transportation, this research chose Dongguan “motorcycle ban” policy as the research object, and constructed secondary evaluation index system in transportation and environmental harmony, transportation and future harmony, transportation and society harmony, transportation and resource harmony, four dimensions. Then it used fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to do the evaluation and found that the policy’s positive effect on the Dongguan green transportation development was average. Finally, based on the evaluation results, measures and advices were proposed.

An empowerment evaluation framework for national scientific and technical information governance

‘Empowerment’is the result of pursuing special capabilities under a specific value orientation.The changes in related object capabilities triggered by scientific and technical information activities in the new environment are important to the national scientific and technical(S&T)information governance.Based on the empowerment theories and evaluation practices,this study attempts to construct an empowerment evaluation framework for national S&T information governance and takes the participatory technology assessment and Altmetrics methods as examples to demonstrate its advantages:1)The capability changes and development potential are regarded as important basis for evaluation;2)The multi-person participation and multi-indicator comprehensive evaluation method is conducive to the democratic and objective nature of science and technology information governance policy formulation.

An Evaluation Synthesis of US AIDS Drug Assistance Program Policy

US Congress passed the CARE Act in 1990 in response to a dramatically growing need for resources to combat the AIDS epidemic. One of the programs contained in the Act was the AIDS Drug Assistance Program (ADAP), a federally-funded but state-maintained and managed program primarily concerned with providing medication for low-income HIV/AIDS patients. While ADAP programs across the country reached one-third of all patients in 2007, these programs are now in budgetary danger due to the economic recession, state budgetary constraints, the rising cost of healthcare generally, and longer life expectancies associated with current highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). This paper first evaluates the current state of ADAP, its strengths and weaknesses, and examines its sustainability in the short term if short-term measures are taken. Concluding that such measures would not lead to long-term sustainability, this paper then argues for a long-term solution to ADAP’s current problems, namely a national, centralized ADAP standard for budgetary and administrative matters. Such a program would increase the long-term sustainability and effectiveness of current ADAP programs by employing more efficient, standard policies and allowing larger, wholesale purchases of costly HAART medications. Moreover, a national policy would address the disparity that currently exists in ADAP programs today with regard to both minorities and those on the waiting lists for treatment. The institution of a national ADAP program would certainly face many political hurdles. Consequently, this paper also looks to a recent political dispute, the enactment of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), for guidance. Using the passage of the ACA as an example could light the path for passage of a national ADAP standard. Ultimately, this would lead to a more effective and sustainable program for HIV/AIDS patients in the United States.

Research Status and Trends of Science and Technology Evaluation in China—Visual Analysis Based on Knowledge Mapping

In order to understand the current status and future trends of China’s science and technology evaluation research, we use the visual analysis tool CiteSpace to use the source journals included in the Chinese social science citations from 1998-2019 as the data source, and evaluate the domestic science and technology evaluation papers from the number of publications, the co-occurrence of authors, Institutional co-occurrence and subject clustering are analyzed. The study found that: the total amount of literature in the field of domestic science and technology evaluation is showing an overall upward trend;a relatively obvious author cooperation network has been formed, but the core author group has not yet been formed;institutional cooperation clusters have appeared, but the cooperation between institutions is still relatively scattered;The research topics focus on three aspects: science and technology evaluation index system, evaluation method and evaluation system.

The Evaluation of Human Resources in Modern Public Management in the Countries of South East Europe

Nowadays, the public sector plays an important role when it comes to economic development and growth of a country. The most important chapter is ＂the evaluation of public servants＂. The analysis for the evaluation and subsequently the personal development and career planning of human resources based on both academic theories and their practical implementation. The new model is based on proportionality and administrative Europeanization, which creates formal and informal rules, modern processes of public policy that will shape common beliefs and values incorporated in the specific national policies. Performance appraisal is the process by which organizations evaluate job performance. The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive narration for the performance management in modem public sector, to explain the uses of performance appraisals, to describe the methods of the evaluation and to analyze the role of evaluation.

Environment Restricts and Policy Choice in International Harmonization of Accounting Standards and Effect Evaluation——Evidence from the Non-monetary Transaction

The paper tests accounting earnings quality of the non-monetary transaction standard before and after the revision, and comes to the conclusion that the standard revision under domestic conditions which restricts the use of fair value and does not recognize exchange revenues effectively prevents the company from managing earnings to improve earnings quality. The earnings management of the public companies has become more difficult, and earnings quality has been improved. But the earnings management of the public company does not decrease, some public companies make earnings management by other ways, The researcher provides direct evidence in explaining environment restricts have a role in accounting internationalization, explaining the difficulties of standard-making.

Evaluation of the Moderately Leading Development in China's Electric Power Industry

This article analyzes the importance of the moderately leading development in electric power industry, and the basic policy of the industry in China. It evaluates if the industry is appropriately developed ahead of other industries from the aspects of legal structuring, planning, electricity pricing mechanism, fixed assets investment, human resources, technological innovation and production and supply capacity etc., and proposes f ive recommendations.

Decision-making Principles and Evaluation Frame of Harmonious Fiscal Policy

Harmonious fiscal policy is the Inner requirement for Constructing Harmonious society and is an important means of realiziug such society. The harmonious fiscal policy should realize the harmony of “two hands”, the harmony of values, the unity of short-term and long-term harmony the unity of parts and the whole harmony, the unity of internal and external efficacy harmony. To scientifically evaluate harmony of fiscal policy is the prerequisite to bring harmonious fiscal policy to its full play.

The Impact of Generic Drug Consistency Evaluation Policy on Pharmaceutical Enterprises

Objective To study the impact of consistency evaluation policy on pharmaceutical enterprises from four aspects:reference preparations,evaluation methods,input costs,and market competitions,and government incentives for generic drug manufacturers,so as to put forward relevant suggestions.Methods Literature research method and statistical analysis method were used to provide data support for paper writing,making suggestions,and enhancing the predictability of policy.Results and Conclusion Some pharmaceutical enterprises faced difficulties in obtaining reference preparations,high input costs for exploring evaluation methods,and greater market competition.Consistency evaluation is a key measure to comprehensively improve the quality and efficacy of generic drugs.However,difficulties in obtaining reference preparations,high input costs and complex evaluation methods all affect the enthusiasm of companies.Therefore,national and local regulatory agencies have issued some supporting policies,which should be improved to assist enterprises in conducting consistency evaluations.

Evaluation of the Effect of China’s Health Care Reform Based on Prospect Theory

Objective To evaluate the effect of health care reform policy in China comprehensively and provide suggestions for its further implementation.Methods Data on the effect of health care reform were obtained from“China Health Statistics Yearbook”and National Bureau of Statistics of China and the indicators were selected by corrected item total correlation(CITC)and Cronbach’sαreliability coefficient.Then,the selected indicators were calculated through the prospect theory model.Meanwhile,the gray relation analysis method was introduced to enlarge the differences between the advantages and disadvantages to make the comprehensive evaluation result more obvious.Results and Conclusion The implementation of China’s health care reform has a significant impact on China’s medical and health system.However,the effect of the policy will become less with the increase of the total amount.An effective management can ensure that the policy continues to play its role.

Evaluating the Impacts of Food Safety Policies on Japan's Rice Imports Based on the Simultaneous Buy and Sell System

This study evaluated the impacts of food safety policies on Japan's Simultaneous Buy and Sell rice imports through measuring tariff equivalents of food safety policies.In order to construct an estimated model,a Japanese consumer's utility function is introduced and developed with consumer's preference parameters and elasticity of substitution.In the empirical study part,Japan's positive list system and rice traceability were analyzed and assessed as critical food safety policies.Results showed that after the implementation of the positive list system,consumers'preference for foreign rice and the substitution elasticity diminished.This decreasing tendency was quite similar to the results after the enforcement of rice traceability.The tariff equivalents of food safety policies on imported rice fluctuated around ¥50 yen/kg from fiscal year 2000 to 2005 and decreased because of the global grain price hike after 2006.The tariff equivalents soared in 2010,which was induced by the traceability regulation,and then dulled during Japan's earthquake and tsunami in 2011.Subsequently,after the recovery from natural disasters,the tariff equivalents of food safety policies became higher.Therefore,food safety policies had made imported rice less attractive,weakened the competitive power of rice exporting countries,and had statistically significant impacts on Japan's rice importation.

基于熵权TOPSIS法的区域技术创新政策评价研究

在构建区域技术创新政策四维度框架结构的基础上,建立区域技术创新政策的评价指标体系,选取北京市9项技术创新政策,运用熵权法客观确定指标权重,利用TOPSIS模型法对所选政策进行测度和评价。结果表明,熵权TOPSIS法适用于多指标的政策评价,能够真实的反映实际情况;政策四维度评价指标中,政策力度、政策目标、政策措施和政策作用对象权重差距较小,政策力度评价指标对政策评价影响最大;T7和T6政策排序相对靠前,T9和T4排名相对靠后。最后,提出本研究的局限性和下一步研究方向。

中部六省科技创新绩效与“十四五”发展对策--基于“十三五”的DEA-Malmquist模型实证研究

科学地评价“十三五”期间中部六省科技创新政策效率,对于推动“十四五”期间中部地区经济高质量发展具有重要作用。运用DEA模型及Malmquist指数分解法对“十三五”时期中部六省科技创新政策效率进行实证分析与评价,结果表明:“十三五”期间,中部六省科技创新政策效率整体水平较好;综合效率和规模效率排名最高的省份为湖北省,纯技术效率排名最高的为江西省、最低的为河南省;中部六省的科技创新全要素生产率变动主要动力来自技术进步的影响,而纯技术效率的影响不大。根据研究结果,从加强科技创新协同机制、优化科技资源配置、推进科技创新实践等方面对“十四五”时期中部六省未来科技创新政策提出了建议。