An S-N curve fitting approach is proposed based on the weighted least square method, and the weights are inversely proportional to the length of mean confidence intervals of experimental data sets. The assumption coin...An S-N curve fitting approach is proposed based on the weighted least square method, and the weights are inversely proportional to the length of mean confidence intervals of experimental data sets. The assumption coincides with the physical characteristics of the fatigue life scatter. Two examples demonstrate the method. It is shown that the method has better accuracy and reasonableness compared with the usual least square method.展开更多
Based on probabilistic fracture mechanics approach, a new concept of material initial fatigue quality (MIFQ) is developed. Then, the relation between S-N curve and crack propagation curve is studied. From the study,...Based on probabilistic fracture mechanics approach, a new concept of material initial fatigue quality (MIFQ) is developed. Then, the relation between S-N curve and crack propagation curve is studied. From the study, a new durability analysis method is presented. In this method, S-N curve is used to determine crack growth rate under constant amplitude loading and evaluate the effects of different factors on durability and then the structural durability is analyzed. The tests and analyses indicate that this method has lower dependence on testing, and higher accuracy, reliability and generality and is convenient for application.展开更多
Based on the evolution of fatigue cracks in welded structures,the fatigue life of welded structures was defined as the sum of the crack initiation life Ni and the crack propagation life Np.Correspondingly,a fatigue-li...Based on the evolution of fatigue cracks in welded structures,the fatigue life of welded structures was defined as the sum of the crack initiation life Ni and the crack propagation life Np.Correspondingly,a fatigue-life analysis method combining S-N curves and fracture mechanics theory was proposed.The equivalent structural stress method and the lower 99%boundary of the master S-N curve were used to evaluate Ni,and cracks at the end of the initiation stage were considered as semi-elliptical surface cracks.Moreover,Paris equation and the stress intensity factor range of the cracks were used to evaluate Np.Furthermore,the fatigue test results obtained from the running girder of cranes were used as a reference for comparison and verification of the results.The results revealed that the equivalent structural stress is a good indicator for the crack initiation behavior of complex welded structures.In addition,the predicted fatigue life corresponded closely to the testing life.展开更多
When the historic probabilistic S-N curves are given under special survival probability and confidence levels and there is no possible to re-test, fatigue reliability analysis at other levels can not be done except fo...When the historic probabilistic S-N curves are given under special survival probability and confidence levels and there is no possible to re-test, fatigue reliability analysis at other levels can not be done except for the special levels. Therefore, the wide applied curves are expected. Monte Carlo reconstruction methods of the test data and the curves are investigated under fatigue life following lognormal distribution. To overcome the non-conservative assessment of existent man-made enlarging the sample size up to thousands, a simulation policy is employed to address the true production where the sample size is controlled less than 20 for material specimens, 10 for structural component specimens and the errors matching the statistical parameters are less than 5 percent. Availability and feasibility of the present methods have been indicated by the reconstruction practice of the test data and curves for 60Si2Mn high strength spring steel of railway industry.展开更多
ΔF-N curves are usually used to predict the fatigue life of spot welding in engineering,but they are time-consuming and laborious and not universal.For the purpose of predicting the fatigue life of spot welding accur...ΔF-N curves are usually used to predict the fatigue life of spot welding in engineering,but they are time-consuming and laborious and not universal.For the purpose of predicting the fatigue life of spot welding accurately and efficiently,tensile-shear fatigue tests were conducted to obtain the fatigue life of spot-welded specimens with different sheet thicknesses combinations.These specimens were simulated by using the finite element method,and the structural stress was theoretically calculated.In the double logarithmic coordinate system,the structural stress-fatigue life(S-N)curve of spot welding was fitted by the least-squares method,based on the quasi-Newton method.The square of the correlation coefficient of the S-N curve was taken as the optimization objective,with the correction coefficients of force,bending moment,spot welding diameter,and sheet thickness as the variables.During the optimization process,three different ways were utilized to get three optimized spot welding S-N curves,which are suitable for different situations.The results show that the fitting effect of the S-N curve is improved,the data points are more compact,and the optimization effect is significant.These S-N curves can be used to predict the fatigue life,which provide the basis for practical engineering application.展开更多
AIM: To use the cumulative sum analysis score(CUSUM) to construct objectively the learning curve of phacoemulsification competency.METHODS: Three second-year residents and an experienced consultant were monitored ...AIM: To use the cumulative sum analysis score(CUSUM) to construct objectively the learning curve of phacoemulsification competency.METHODS: Three second-year residents and an experienced consultant were monitored for a series of 70 phacoemulsification cases each and had their series analysed by CUSUM regarding posterior capsule rupture(PCR) and best-corrected visual acuity. The acceptable rate for PCR was 〈5%(lower limit h) and the unacceptable rate was 〉10%(upper limit h). The acceptable rate for bestcorrected visual acuity worse than 20/40 was 〈10%(lower limit h) and the unacceptable rate was 〉20%(upper limit h). The area between lower limit h and upper limit h is called the decision interval. RESULTS: There was no statistically significant difference in the mean age, sex or cataract grades between groups. The first trainee achieved PCR CUSUM competency at his 22 nd case. His best-corrected visual acuity CUSUM was in the decision interval from his third case and stayed there until the end, never reaching competency. The second trainee achieved PCR CUSUM competency at his 39^ th case. He could reach best-corrected visual acuity CUSUM competency at his 22 ^nd case. The third trainee achieved PCR CUSUM competency at his 41 st case. He reached bestcorrected visual acuity CUSUM competency at his 14 ^th case.CONCLUSION: The learning curve of competency in phacoemulsification is constructed by CUSUM and in average took 38 cases for each trainee to achieve it.展开更多
In order to study the applicability of different light response models to the photoresponse curves of four species of Chamaenerion, four species of Chamaenerion collected from Serzilla were used as test materials. Fou...In order to study the applicability of different light response models to the photoresponse curves of four species of Chamaenerion, four species of Chamaenerion collected from Serzilla were used as test materials. Four common photosynthetic models were used to fit the photosynthetic response curve of the leaves. The results show that: 1) The effect of different photosynthetic response models on photosynthetic response curve of the genus chromasia was different. The fitted value of the correction model of right angled hyperbola was closest to the measured value, the R2 was 0.998, and RE was 0.216. 2) In terms of fitting the photosynthetic parameters, the initial quantum efficiency, light compensation point and dark respiration rate were suitable for fitting with non-right angle hyperbolic model. In terms of fitting the photosynthetic parameters, the initial quantum efficiency, light compensation point and dark respiration rate were suitable for fitting with non-right angle hyperbolic model. 3) The photosynthetic characteristics of C. angustifolium subsp. circumvagum reflect the negative response to high altitude radiation. Under strong radiation, the photosynthetic rate, apparent quantum efficiency, and light saturation point are low. On the other hand, C. conspersum has a positive response to high altitude radiation. C. angustifolium and C. latifolium has a higher light compensation point and higher light saturation point, but it is also positive for high altitude radiation. The response is only a choice of light intensity at different elevations, which also explains the distribution of C. angustifolium and C. latifolium in the salmonella with a single elevation, habitat, and slope.展开更多
This paper describes a new surgical techni-que for obtaining a better nasal contour in se-condary cleft lip nasal deformity. It involves re-moving of the curved septal cartilage and placinga piece of silica gel as a c...This paper describes a new surgical techni-que for obtaining a better nasal contour in se-condary cleft lip nasal deformity. It involves re-moving of the curved septal cartilage and placinga piece of silica gel as a columellar strut in themiddle so as to correct the oblique展开更多
The classification method of relative permeability curves is rarely reported, when relative permeability curves are applied;if the multiple relative permeability curves are normalized directly, but not classified, the...The classification method of relative permeability curves is rarely reported, when relative permeability curves are applied;if the multiple relative permeability curves are normalized directly, but not classified, the calculated result maybe cause a large error. For example, the relationship curve between oil displacement efficiency and water cut, which derived from the relative permeability curve in LD oilfield is uncertain in the shape of low water cut stage. If being directly normalized, the result of the interpretation of the water flooded zone is very high. In this study, two problems were solved: 1) The mathematical equation of the relationship between oil displacement efficiency and water cut was deduced, and repaired the lost data of oil displacement efficiency and water cut curve, which solve the problem of uncertain curve shape. After analysis, the reason why the curve is not available is that relative permeability curves are not classified and optimized;2) Two kinds of classification and evaluation methods of relative permeability curve were put forward, the direct evaluation method and the analogy method;it can get the typical relative permeability curve by identifying abnormal curve.展开更多
Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy(LIBS)has been used for soil analysis,but its measurement accuracy is often influenced by matrix effects of different kinds of soils.In this work,a method for matrix effect suppress...Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy(LIBS)has been used for soil analysis,but its measurement accuracy is often influenced by matrix effects of different kinds of soils.In this work,a method for matrix effect suppressing was developed using laser-induced plasma acoustic signals to correct the original spectrum,thereby improving the analysis accuracy of the soil elements.A good linear relationship was investigated firstly between the original spectral intensity and the acoustic signals.The relative standard deviations(RSDs)of Mg,Ca,Sr,and Ba elements were then calculated for both the original spectrum and the spectrum with the acoustic correction,and the RSDs were significantly reduced with the acoustic correction.Finally,calibration curves of MgⅠ285.213 nm,CaⅠ422.673 nm,SrⅠ460.733 nm and BaⅡ455.403 nm were established to assess the analytical performance of the proposed acoustic correction method.The values of the determination coefficient(R~2)of the calibration curves for Mg,Ca,Sr,and Ba elements,corrected by the acoustic amplitude,are improved from 0.9845,0.9588,0.6165,and 0.6490 to 0.9876,0.9677,0.8768,and 0.8209,respectively.The values of R~2 of the calibration curves corrected by the acoustic energy are further improved to 0.9917,0.9827,0.8835,and 0.8694,respectively.These results suggest that the matrix effect of LIBS on soils can be clearly improved by using acoustic correction,and acoustic energy correction works more efficiently than acoustic amplitude correction.This work provides a simple and efficient method for correcting matrix effects in the element analysis of soils by acoustic signals.展开更多
With the popularization of friction stir welding(FSW),5083-H321 and 6061-T6 aluminum alloy materials are widely used during the FSW process.In this study,the fatigue life of friction stir welding with two materials,i....With the popularization of friction stir welding(FSW),5083-H321 and 6061-T6 aluminum alloy materials are widely used during the FSW process.In this study,the fatigue life of friction stir welding with two materials,i.e.,5083-H321 and 6061-T6 aluminum alloy,are studied.Fatigue tests were carried out on the base metal of these two materials as well as on the butt joints and overlapping FSW samples.The principle of the equivalent structural stress method is used to analyze the FSW test data of these two materials.The fatigue resistances of these two materials were com-pared and a unified principal S-N curve equation was fitted.Two key parameters of the unified principal S-N curve obtained by fitting,Cd is 4222.5,and h is 0.2693.A new method for an FSW fatigue life assessment was developed in this study and can be used to calculate the fatigue life of different welding forms with a single S-N curve.Two main fatigue tests of bending and tension were used to verify the unified principal S-N curve equation.The results show that the fatigue life calculated by the unified mean 50%master S-N curve parameters are the closest to the fatigue test results.The reliability,practicability,and generality of the master S-N curve fitting parameters were verified using the test data.The unified principal S-N curve acquired in this study can not only be used in aluminum alloy materials but can also be applied to other materials.展开更多
针对分布式电源和新型负荷容量累积造成负荷影响因素多元化和不确定性特性增强的问题,文中提出一种采用记忆神经网络和曲线形状修正的负荷预测方法。在负荷峰值预测中,采用最大信息系数计算负荷峰值与影响因素的非线性相关性,实现对输...针对分布式电源和新型负荷容量累积造成负荷影响因素多元化和不确定性特性增强的问题,文中提出一种采用记忆神经网络和曲线形状修正的负荷预测方法。在负荷峰值预测中,采用最大信息系数计算负荷峰值与影响因素的非线性相关性,实现对输入特征的筛选;综合考虑负荷峰值序列的长短期自相关性和输入特征与负荷峰值的不同程度相关性,结合Attention机制和双向长短时记忆(bidirectional long short-term memory,BiLSTM)神经网络建立负荷峰值预测模型。在负荷标幺曲线预测中,通过误差倒数法组合相似日和相邻日,建立负荷标幺曲线预测模型;针对预测偏差的非平稳特征,利用自适应噪声的完全集成经验模态分解和BiLSTM网络建立误差预测模型,对曲线形状进行修正。应用中国北方某城市的区域电网负荷数据为算例,验证了所提模型的有效性。展开更多
水文模型结构不确定性是影响水文预报精度的重要因素,如何量化并降低其影响是当前的研究热点问题.基于动态系统响应曲线方法(dynamic system response curve,DSRC),假设水文模型系统的误差仅来源于模型结构误差,推导模型结构误差与输入...水文模型结构不确定性是影响水文预报精度的重要因素,如何量化并降低其影响是当前的研究热点问题.基于动态系统响应曲线方法(dynamic system response curve,DSRC),假设水文模型系统的误差仅来源于模型结构误差,推导模型结构误差与输入量的变化量之间的数学关系,结合经典概率论,提出了能够分辨模型结构不确定性来源的考虑模型结构不确定性的动态系统响应曲线校正方法(dynamic system response curve method considering the model structure uncertainty,UNDSRC).将该方法应用于大坡岭流域与富水流域检验UNDSRC方法的综合表现,并与DSRC方法进行比较.研究表明:1)在实际流域检验中,UNDSRC方法相较于DSRC方法具有更好的校正效果,校正效果评价系数分别为0.82与0.60;2)DSRC方法在2个实际流域均可以对新安江模型进行有效校正,且校正效果相似;3)UNDSRC方法校正效果优异且稳定,能够适应更复杂的流域下垫面情况,方法对洪峰流量的校正优于对径流深的校正;4)校正精度相同的情况下,UNDSRC方法相较于DSRC方法具有更小的岭系数.展开更多
文摘An S-N curve fitting approach is proposed based on the weighted least square method, and the weights are inversely proportional to the length of mean confidence intervals of experimental data sets. The assumption coincides with the physical characteristics of the fatigue life scatter. Two examples demonstrate the method. It is shown that the method has better accuracy and reasonableness compared with the usual least square method.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (60472118) High-tech Research Project of Jiangsu Province (BG2004008)
文摘Based on probabilistic fracture mechanics approach, a new concept of material initial fatigue quality (MIFQ) is developed. Then, the relation between S-N curve and crack propagation curve is studied. From the study, a new durability analysis method is presented. In this method, S-N curve is used to determine crack growth rate under constant amplitude loading and evaluate the effects of different factors on durability and then the structural durability is analyzed. The tests and analyses indicate that this method has lower dependence on testing, and higher accuracy, reliability and generality and is convenient for application.
基金Project was supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China(51575408).
文摘Based on the evolution of fatigue cracks in welded structures,the fatigue life of welded structures was defined as the sum of the crack initiation life Ni and the crack propagation life Np.Correspondingly,a fatigue-life analysis method combining S-N curves and fracture mechanics theory was proposed.The equivalent structural stress method and the lower 99%boundary of the master S-N curve were used to evaluate Ni,and cracks at the end of the initiation stage were considered as semi-elliptical surface cracks.Moreover,Paris equation and the stress intensity factor range of the cracks were used to evaluate Np.Furthermore,the fatigue test results obtained from the running girder of cranes were used as a reference for comparison and verification of the results.The results revealed that the equivalent structural stress is a good indicator for the crack initiation behavior of complex welded structures.In addition,the predicted fatigue life corresponded closely to the testing life.
基金Project supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(863 Program) (No.2006AA04Z406)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos.50375130, 50323003 and 50575189)+1 种基金the Special Foundation for the Authors of National Excellent Doctoral Dissertations (No.200234)the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University(No.NCET040890)
文摘When the historic probabilistic S-N curves are given under special survival probability and confidence levels and there is no possible to re-test, fatigue reliability analysis at other levels can not be done except for the special levels. Therefore, the wide applied curves are expected. Monte Carlo reconstruction methods of the test data and the curves are investigated under fatigue life following lognormal distribution. To overcome the non-conservative assessment of existent man-made enlarging the sample size up to thousands, a simulation policy is employed to address the true production where the sample size is controlled less than 20 for material specimens, 10 for structural component specimens and the errors matching the statistical parameters are less than 5 percent. Availability and feasibility of the present methods have been indicated by the reconstruction practice of the test data and curves for 60Si2Mn high strength spring steel of railway industry.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U1534209,51675446)Independent Subject of State Key Laboratory of Traction Power(Grant No.2019TPL-T13).
文摘ΔF-N curves are usually used to predict the fatigue life of spot welding in engineering,but they are time-consuming and laborious and not universal.For the purpose of predicting the fatigue life of spot welding accurately and efficiently,tensile-shear fatigue tests were conducted to obtain the fatigue life of spot-welded specimens with different sheet thicknesses combinations.These specimens were simulated by using the finite element method,and the structural stress was theoretically calculated.In the double logarithmic coordinate system,the structural stress-fatigue life(S-N)curve of spot welding was fitted by the least-squares method,based on the quasi-Newton method.The square of the correlation coefficient of the S-N curve was taken as the optimization objective,with the correction coefficients of force,bending moment,spot welding diameter,and sheet thickness as the variables.During the optimization process,three different ways were utilized to get three optimized spot welding S-N curves,which are suitable for different situations.The results show that the fitting effect of the S-N curve is improved,the data points are more compact,and the optimization effect is significant.These S-N curves can be used to predict the fatigue life,which provide the basis for practical engineering application.
文摘AIM: To use the cumulative sum analysis score(CUSUM) to construct objectively the learning curve of phacoemulsification competency.METHODS: Three second-year residents and an experienced consultant were monitored for a series of 70 phacoemulsification cases each and had their series analysed by CUSUM regarding posterior capsule rupture(PCR) and best-corrected visual acuity. The acceptable rate for PCR was 〈5%(lower limit h) and the unacceptable rate was 〉10%(upper limit h). The acceptable rate for bestcorrected visual acuity worse than 20/40 was 〈10%(lower limit h) and the unacceptable rate was 〉20%(upper limit h). The area between lower limit h and upper limit h is called the decision interval. RESULTS: There was no statistically significant difference in the mean age, sex or cataract grades between groups. The first trainee achieved PCR CUSUM competency at his 22 nd case. His best-corrected visual acuity CUSUM was in the decision interval from his third case and stayed there until the end, never reaching competency. The second trainee achieved PCR CUSUM competency at his 39^ th case. He could reach best-corrected visual acuity CUSUM competency at his 22 ^nd case. The third trainee achieved PCR CUSUM competency at his 41 st case. He reached bestcorrected visual acuity CUSUM competency at his 14 ^th case.CONCLUSION: The learning curve of competency in phacoemulsification is constructed by CUSUM and in average took 38 cases for each trainee to achieve it.
文摘In order to study the applicability of different light response models to the photoresponse curves of four species of Chamaenerion, four species of Chamaenerion collected from Serzilla were used as test materials. Four common photosynthetic models were used to fit the photosynthetic response curve of the leaves. The results show that: 1) The effect of different photosynthetic response models on photosynthetic response curve of the genus chromasia was different. The fitted value of the correction model of right angled hyperbola was closest to the measured value, the R2 was 0.998, and RE was 0.216. 2) In terms of fitting the photosynthetic parameters, the initial quantum efficiency, light compensation point and dark respiration rate were suitable for fitting with non-right angle hyperbolic model. In terms of fitting the photosynthetic parameters, the initial quantum efficiency, light compensation point and dark respiration rate were suitable for fitting with non-right angle hyperbolic model. 3) The photosynthetic characteristics of C. angustifolium subsp. circumvagum reflect the negative response to high altitude radiation. Under strong radiation, the photosynthetic rate, apparent quantum efficiency, and light saturation point are low. On the other hand, C. conspersum has a positive response to high altitude radiation. C. angustifolium and C. latifolium has a higher light compensation point and higher light saturation point, but it is also positive for high altitude radiation. The response is only a choice of light intensity at different elevations, which also explains the distribution of C. angustifolium and C. latifolium in the salmonella with a single elevation, habitat, and slope.
文摘This paper describes a new surgical techni-que for obtaining a better nasal contour in se-condary cleft lip nasal deformity. It involves re-moving of the curved septal cartilage and placinga piece of silica gel as a columellar strut in themiddle so as to correct the oblique
文摘The classification method of relative permeability curves is rarely reported, when relative permeability curves are applied;if the multiple relative permeability curves are normalized directly, but not classified, the calculated result maybe cause a large error. For example, the relationship curve between oil displacement efficiency and water cut, which derived from the relative permeability curve in LD oilfield is uncertain in the shape of low water cut stage. If being directly normalized, the result of the interpretation of the water flooded zone is very high. In this study, two problems were solved: 1) The mathematical equation of the relationship between oil displacement efficiency and water cut was deduced, and repaired the lost data of oil displacement efficiency and water cut curve, which solve the problem of uncertain curve shape. After analysis, the reason why the curve is not available is that relative permeability curves are not classified and optimized;2) Two kinds of classification and evaluation methods of relative permeability curve were put forward, the direct evaluation method and the analogy method;it can get the typical relative permeability curve by identifying abnormal curve.
基金financially supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.12064029)by Jiangxi Provincial Natural Science Foundation(No.20202BABL202024)by the Open project program of Key Laboratory of Opto-Electronic Information Science and Technology of Jiangxi Province(No.ED202208094)。
文摘Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy(LIBS)has been used for soil analysis,but its measurement accuracy is often influenced by matrix effects of different kinds of soils.In this work,a method for matrix effect suppressing was developed using laser-induced plasma acoustic signals to correct the original spectrum,thereby improving the analysis accuracy of the soil elements.A good linear relationship was investigated firstly between the original spectral intensity and the acoustic signals.The relative standard deviations(RSDs)of Mg,Ca,Sr,and Ba elements were then calculated for both the original spectrum and the spectrum with the acoustic correction,and the RSDs were significantly reduced with the acoustic correction.Finally,calibration curves of MgⅠ285.213 nm,CaⅠ422.673 nm,SrⅠ460.733 nm and BaⅡ455.403 nm were established to assess the analytical performance of the proposed acoustic correction method.The values of the determination coefficient(R~2)of the calibration curves for Mg,Ca,Sr,and Ba elements,corrected by the acoustic amplitude,are improved from 0.9845,0.9588,0.6165,and 0.6490 to 0.9876,0.9677,0.8768,and 0.8209,respectively.The values of R~2 of the calibration curves corrected by the acoustic energy are further improved to 0.9917,0.9827,0.8835,and 0.8694,respectively.These results suggest that the matrix effect of LIBS on soils can be clearly improved by using acoustic correction,and acoustic energy correction works more efficiently than acoustic amplitude correction.This work provides a simple and efficient method for correcting matrix effects in the element analysis of soils by acoustic signals.
基金Supported by Department of Education of Liaoning Province(Grant No.JDL2020019)Dalian High Level Talents Project(Grant No.2017RQ132).
文摘With the popularization of friction stir welding(FSW),5083-H321 and 6061-T6 aluminum alloy materials are widely used during the FSW process.In this study,the fatigue life of friction stir welding with two materials,i.e.,5083-H321 and 6061-T6 aluminum alloy,are studied.Fatigue tests were carried out on the base metal of these two materials as well as on the butt joints and overlapping FSW samples.The principle of the equivalent structural stress method is used to analyze the FSW test data of these two materials.The fatigue resistances of these two materials were com-pared and a unified principal S-N curve equation was fitted.Two key parameters of the unified principal S-N curve obtained by fitting,Cd is 4222.5,and h is 0.2693.A new method for an FSW fatigue life assessment was developed in this study and can be used to calculate the fatigue life of different welding forms with a single S-N curve.Two main fatigue tests of bending and tension were used to verify the unified principal S-N curve equation.The results show that the fatigue life calculated by the unified mean 50%master S-N curve parameters are the closest to the fatigue test results.The reliability,practicability,and generality of the master S-N curve fitting parameters were verified using the test data.The unified principal S-N curve acquired in this study can not only be used in aluminum alloy materials but can also be applied to other materials.
文摘针对分布式电源和新型负荷容量累积造成负荷影响因素多元化和不确定性特性增强的问题,文中提出一种采用记忆神经网络和曲线形状修正的负荷预测方法。在负荷峰值预测中,采用最大信息系数计算负荷峰值与影响因素的非线性相关性,实现对输入特征的筛选;综合考虑负荷峰值序列的长短期自相关性和输入特征与负荷峰值的不同程度相关性,结合Attention机制和双向长短时记忆(bidirectional long short-term memory,BiLSTM)神经网络建立负荷峰值预测模型。在负荷标幺曲线预测中,通过误差倒数法组合相似日和相邻日,建立负荷标幺曲线预测模型;针对预测偏差的非平稳特征,利用自适应噪声的完全集成经验模态分解和BiLSTM网络建立误差预测模型,对曲线形状进行修正。应用中国北方某城市的区域电网负荷数据为算例,验证了所提模型的有效性。
文摘水文模型结构不确定性是影响水文预报精度的重要因素,如何量化并降低其影响是当前的研究热点问题.基于动态系统响应曲线方法(dynamic system response curve,DSRC),假设水文模型系统的误差仅来源于模型结构误差,推导模型结构误差与输入量的变化量之间的数学关系,结合经典概率论,提出了能够分辨模型结构不确定性来源的考虑模型结构不确定性的动态系统响应曲线校正方法(dynamic system response curve method considering the model structure uncertainty,UNDSRC).将该方法应用于大坡岭流域与富水流域检验UNDSRC方法的综合表现,并与DSRC方法进行比较.研究表明:1)在实际流域检验中,UNDSRC方法相较于DSRC方法具有更好的校正效果,校正效果评价系数分别为0.82与0.60;2)DSRC方法在2个实际流域均可以对新安江模型进行有效校正,且校正效果相似;3)UNDSRC方法校正效果优异且稳定,能够适应更复杂的流域下垫面情况,方法对洪峰流量的校正优于对径流深的校正;4)校正精度相同的情况下,UNDSRC方法相较于DSRC方法具有更小的岭系数.