This study focuses on a national regional coordinated development strategy and adopts China Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium model to analyze the economic and social development, energy demand, and carbon...This study focuses on a national regional coordinated development strategy and adopts China Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium model to analyze the economic and social development, energy demand, and carbon emissions of the provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP, 2021 2025) period based on the economic development and energy demand since the New Normal. The main conclusions are the following: 1) Under the guidance of the regional coordinated development strategy, 13 provinces/municipalities are expected to have a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of more than US$15,000, and 16 provinces/municipalities will have a per capita GDP of US$10,000 15,000. All provincial economies are expected to achieve steady and rapid development by the end of the 14th FYP. 2) The total energy consumption of the provinces is expected to reach 5.45 Gtce (excluding Tibet) in 2025, and the average annual growth rate is approximately 1.5%. The growth of energy demand will remain in low speed. The key point of energy demand will gradually shift from the eastern to the middle area, while the proportion of energy use in the western provinces will remain stable, which is consistent with the economic development stage and regional coordinated development strategy. 3) The annual average carbon intensity (mainly considering carbon emissions from energy use) of the provinces will approximately with most provinces dropping by over 4.0%. The trend of a considerable decline in carbon intensity, as observed in recent years, is expected to continue.展开更多
Software development is an important part of computer technology.only by ensuring the applicability and efficiency of the software can it really improve the efficiency of production and life,and truly inject new power...Software development is an important part of computer technology.only by ensuring the applicability and efficiency of the software can it really improve the efficiency of production and life,and truly inject new power into the economic benefits of the industry.As the theoretical basis of software development,the software development model directly determines the quality of software development.In this paper,starting with information technology as an important tool to improve modern management,it brings out the difficulties and pain points in the analysis of software development needs,and first puts forward the software development innovation model for building a composite core users.It takes core users with compound qualities and capabilities as the main line and guides the entire development process to enable both parties to communicate accurately and solve the pain points of demand communication,function optimization and project control to the greatest extent.Exploring application innovation in the software development model can promote innovation in the software industry.展开更多
The paper makes a comprehensive prediction of China's future demand for oil and gas with two methods, i.e. the prediction method based on the demand for individual oil and gas products and the method for predicting t...The paper makes a comprehensive prediction of China's future demand for oil and gas with two methods, i.e. the prediction method based on the demand for individual oil and gas products and the method for predicting the total demand. According to the demand prediction of, and the historical data on, the oil and gas consumption, we conduct an analysis of the oil and gas consumption trends, which can be described as six different development periods. On the other hand, the paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the domestic oil and gas resources and, on this basis, makes a basic prediction of the domestic output of oil and gas. The supply and demand situation is also analyzed. By using the SWOT analysis method, the paper puts forward the development strategies for China's oil and gas industry and gives some related strategic measures.展开更多
The challenges posed by climate change require that the quantity and quality of water resources in Nepal be managed with sustainable development practices. The communities around the Kaligandaki Gorge Hydropower Proje...The challenges posed by climate change require that the quantity and quality of water resources in Nepal be managed with sustainable development practices. The communities around the Kaligandaki Gorge Hydropower Project in the Myagdi District of Nepal depend on river flow for most of their rural and agricultural needs. Without a sustainable development plan, the growing population of the region, confined in an area with declining water resources, will face serious challenges to economic growth. Meteorological data show increasing annual average rainfall at a slight rate of about 0.284 mm/year, with erratic annual percentage change in rainfall in the area. The mean and minimum temperatures show decreasing trends at the rates of 0.05-C and 0.14-C per year, respectively. An assessment of the impacts on water availability for domestic and irrigation usage in the face of competing demands caused by the hydropower development project in the Kaligandaki Gorge was undertaken. The water demand and supply modeling were conducted using the water evaluation and planning (WEAP) model, based on discharge data from the Kaligandaki River, which were obtained from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Nepal. The available data from 2001 to 2003 were used to estimate the model parameters while the stability of these parameters was tested with a validation period from 2004 to 2007. The performance of the model was assessed through statistical measures of calibration with the root mean square error and coefficient of determination, whose values were 0.046% and 0.79, respectively. Two scenarios were created in addition to the base case scenario: the discharge decrement scenario and new irrigation technology scenario. Analysis showed that a prioritization of demands will be necessary in the area in the near future for the purpose of sustainability of water resources, due to climate change impacts.展开更多
On June 3rd,JD.com announced that Paipai,its second-hand commodity trade platform,was strategically merged with Aihuishou(Love Recycling)which is one of the largest electronics recycling platforms in China.Recently,th...On June 3rd,JD.com announced that Paipai,its second-hand commodity trade platform,was strategically merged with Aihuishou(Love Recycling)which is one of the largest electronics recycling platforms in China.Recently,the Ecommerce Research Centre of 100ec.cn released the2018 Development Report for China Second-hand E-businesses(hereinafter referred to as the Report),which indicated that as of the end of 2017.展开更多
Abundant potential of renewable energy(RE)in Indonesia is predicted to replace conventional energy which continues to experience depletion year by year.However,until now,the use of RE has only reached 2%of the existin...Abundant potential of renewable energy(RE)in Indonesia is predicted to replace conventional energy which continues to experience depletion year by year.However,until now,the use of RE has only reached 2%of the existing potential of 441.7 GW.The main overview of this work is to investigate the availability of RE that can be utilized for electricity generation in Indonesia.National energy demand and targets in the long run during the 2017-2050 period are also discussed.Besides,government policies in supporting RE development are considered in this work.The results show that the potential of RE in Indonesia can be utilized and might replace conventional energy for decades.The use of RE for electricity generation can be achieved by employing a government policy that supports the investor as the executor of RE development.The selling price of electricity generated from RE is cheaper than electricity generated from fossils;this makes economy is more affordable for people.Finally,the target set by the government for utilizing RE as the main energy in Indonesia can be done by implementing several policies for the RE development.Thus,greenhouse gas emissions and the use of petroleum fuels can be reduced.展开更多
Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world's and China's economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resourc...Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world's and China's economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resources base and potential, development and utilization and their world's and China's supply and demand situation in the future 20 years. The supply and demand of these six bulk mineral products are generally balanced, with a slight surplus, which will guarantee the stability of the international mineral commodity market supply. The six mineral resources (especially iron ores and copper ores) are abundant and have a great potential, and their development and utilization scale will gradually increase. Till the end of 2014, the reserve- production ratio of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc ores and potassium salt was 95 years, 42 years, 100 years, 17 years, 37 years and 170 years, respectively. Except lead ores, the other five types all have reserve-production ratio exceeding 20 years, indicative of a high resources guarantee degree. If the utilization of recycled metals is counted in, the supply of the world's six mineral products will exceed the demand in the future twenty years. In 2015-2035, the supply of iron ores, refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead, zinc and potassium salt will exceed their demand by 0.4-0.7 billion tons (Gt), 5.0-6.0 million tons (Mt), 1.1-8.9 Mt, 1.0-2.0 Mt, 1.2-2.0 Mt and 4.8-5.6 Mt, respectively. It is predicted that there is no problem with the supply side of bulk mineral products such as iron ores, but local or structural shortage may occur because of geopolitics, monopoly control, resources nationalism and trade friction. Affected by China's compressed industrialized development model, the demand of iron ores (crude steel), potassium salt, refined lead, refined copper, bauxite (primary aluminum) and zinc will gradually reach their peak in advance. The demand peak of iron ores (crude steel) will reach around 2015, 2016 for potassium salt, 2020 for refined lead, 2021 for bauxite (primary aluminum), 2022 for refined copper and 2023 for zinc. China's demand for iron ores (crude steel), bauxite (primary aluminum) and zinc in the future 20 years will decline among the world's demand, while that for refined copper, refined lead and potassium salt will slightly increase. The demand for bulk mineral products still remains high. In 2015-2035, China's accumulative demand for iron ores (crude steel) will be 20.313 Gt (13.429 Gt), 0.304 Gt for refined copper, 2.466 Gt (0.616 Gt) of bauxite (primary aluminum), 0.102 Gt of refined lead, 0.138 Gt of zinc and 0.157 Gt of potassium salt, and they account for the world's YOY (YOY) accumulative demand of 35.17%, 51.09%, 48.47%, 46.62%, 43.95% and 21.84%, respectively. This proportion is 49.40%, 102.52%, 87.44%, 105.65%, 93.62% and 106.49% of that in 2014, respectively. From the supply side of China's bulk mineral resources, it is forecasted that the accumulative supply of primary (mine) mineral products in 2015-2035 is 4.046 Gt of iron ores, 0.591 Gt of copper, 1.129 Gt of bauxite, 63.661 Mt of (mine) lead, 0.109 Gt of (mine) zinc and 0.128 Gt of potassium salt, which accounts for 8.82%, 13.92%, 26.67%, 47.09%, 33.04% and 15.56% of the world's predicted YOY production, respectively. With the rapid increase in the smelting capacity of iron and steel and alumina, the rate of capacity utilization for crude steel, refined copper, alumina, primary aluminum and refined lead in 2014 was 72.13%, 83.63%, 74.45%, 70.76% and 72.22%, respectively. During 2000-2014, the rate of capacity utilization for China's crude steel and refined copper showed a generally fluctuating decrease, which leads to an insufficient supply of primary mineral products. It is forecasted that the supply insufficiency of iron ores in 2015-2035 is 17.44 Gt, 0.245 Gt of copper in copper concentrates, 1.337 Gt of bauxite, 38.44 Mt of lead in lead concentrates and 29.19 Mt of zinc in zinc concentrates. China has gradually raised the utilization of recycled metals, which has mitigated the insufficient supply of primary metal products to some extent. It is forecasted that in 2015-2035 the accumulative utilization amount of steel scrap (iron ores) is 3.27 Gt (5.08 Gt), 70.312 Mt of recycled copper, 0.2 Gt of recycled aluminum, 48 Mt of recycled lead and 7.7 Mt of recycled zinc. The analysis on the supply and demand situation of China's bulk mineral resources in 2015-2035 suggests that the supply-demand contradiction for these six types of mineral products will decrease, indicative of a generally declining external dependency. If the use of recycled metal amount is counted in, the external dependency of China's iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc and potassium salt will be 79%, 65%, 26%, 8%, 16% and 18% in 2014, respectively. It is predicted that this external dependency will decrease to 62%, 64%, 20%, -0.93%, 16% and 14% in 2020, respectively, showing an overall decreasing trend. We propose the following suggestions correspondingly. (1) The demand peak of China's crude steel and potassium salt will reach during 2015-2023 in succession. Mining transformation should be planned and deployed in advance to deal with the arrival of this demand peak. (2) The supply-demand contradiction of China's bulk mineral resources will mitigate in the future 20 years, and the external dependency will decrease accordingly. It is suggested to adjust the mineral resources management policies according to different minerals and regions, and regulate the exploration and development activities. (3) China should further establish and improve the forced mechanism of resolving the smelting overcapacity of steel, refined copper, primary aluminum, lead and zinc to really achieve the goal of "reducing excess production capacity". (4) In accordance with the national strategic deployment of "One Belt One Road", China should encourage the excess capacity of steel, copper, alumina and primary aluminum enterprises to transfer to those countries or areas with abundant resources, high energy matching degree and relatively excellent infrastructure. Based on the national conditions, mining condition and geopolitics of the resources countries, we will gradually build steel, copper, aluminum and lead-zinc smelting bases, and potash processing and production bases, which will promote the excess capacity to transfer to the overseas orderly. (5) It is proposed to strengthen the planning and management of renewable resources recycling and to construct industrial base of renewable metal recycling. (6) China should promote the comprehensive development and utilization of paragenetic and associated mineral species to further improve the comprehensive utilization of bulk mineral resources.展开更多
The structure of technological mappings is studied and it is shown that for an important class of technological mappings there exists a continuous strategy of the behavior of firms as arbitrarily close in terms of pro...The structure of technological mappings is studied and it is shown that for an important class of technological mappings there exists a continuous strategy of the behavior of firms as arbitrarily close in terms of profit. The latter is important for building the theory of economic equilibrium, which is an important tool for building the theory of sustainable economic development. Theorems of the existence of economic equilibrium under conditions of uncertainty and under general assumptions about the structure of supply and demand have been proved.展开更多
Green technology innovation meets the dual expectation of innovative development and green development perspectives.Under the canonical demand-pull and policy-push theories,a long-term mechanism for green technology i...Green technology innovation meets the dual expectation of innovative development and green development perspectives.Under the canonical demand-pull and policy-push theories,a long-term mechanism for green technology innovation could be formed through upstream policy push and downstream demand-pull.Leveraging China's regional carbon emission trading scheme pilots as a quasi-natural experiment,this paper examines the policy-push and demand-pull effects on innovation in renewable energy patents.The data pertain to the city-level renewable energy patents from 2000 to 2020.Based upon the triple difference-in-difference method,results suggest that both policy-push and demandpull factors exert positive effects on innovation.This paper further explores the practical and theoretical implications of green technology innovation under the new development perspective.展开更多
This paper introduces the energy consumption status in China, elaborate the affects of the unreasonable energy consumption structure on energy environment and sustainable development of economy. Simultaneously, it poi...This paper introduces the energy consumption status in China, elaborate the affects of the unreasonable energy consumption structure on energy environment and sustainable development of economy. Simultaneously, it points out the solution, i.e., to implement integrated resources planning (IRP)/demand side management (DSM), and gives some recommendations on the way of implementing IRP/DSM.展开更多
Targeted at the dynamic demands in the rapid urban construction, the planning technology strategy of the Shenzhen International Low Carbon City studies the fl exible index model based on carbon emission evaluation, an...Targeted at the dynamic demands in the rapid urban construction, the planning technology strategy of the Shenzhen International Low Carbon City studies the fl exible index model based on carbon emission evaluation, and adopts rolling development and micro-circulation construction mode to achieve quick returns with small investment. Meanwhile, it also evaluates the application of low carbon technology and gives feedback in time, so as to constantly optimize and complete the low carbon city planning. In detail, it involves industrial planning, ecological restoration, transport planning, energy resource planning, architectural design, etc., for which appropriate approaches are selected according to the principle of rolling development of unit cells and based on different requirements of different stages. The quick-response and fl exible technology system can help the low carbon city to choose an appropriate technology strategy in line with its own characteristics in the start-up stage and rapid development, thus realizing the sustainable leap-forward development and providing reference for other similar regions.展开更多
By analyzing the distribution of global oil and gas fields and the reasons why some oil and gas fields are not in production, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves and their ye...By analyzing the distribution of global oil and gas fields and the reasons why some oil and gas fields are not in production, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves and their year-on-year changes, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas production and their year-on-year changes, and the development potential of oil and gas to be tapped in 2021, this paper sorts out systematically the current status and characteristics of global oil and gas development, summaries the major trends of global oil and gas development, puts forward enlightenment for international oil and gas cooperation. In 2021, oil and gas fields were widely distributed, the number of non-producing oil and gas fields was large;the whole oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves declined slightly, unconventional oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves dropped significantly;the overall oil and gas production continuously increased, the outputs of key resource-host countries kept year-on-year growth;undeveloped oilfields had abundant reserves and great development potential. Combined with global oil and gas geopolitics, oil and gas industry development trends, oil and gas investment intensity, and the tracking and judgment of hotspot fields, the major trends of global oil and gas development in 2021 are summarized. On this basis, the four aspects of enlightenment and suggestions for international oil and gas cooperation and development strategies are put forward: attach great importance to the obligation of marine abandonment to ensure high-quality and long-term benefit development of offshore oil and gas;adhere to the principle of not going to dangerous and chaotic places, strengthen the concentration of oil and gas assets, and establish multi stable supply bases;based on the multi-scenario demand of natural gas, realize the transformation from integrated collaboration to full oil and gas industry chain development;increase the acquisition of high-quality large-scale assets, and pay attention to the continuous optimization of the shareholding ratio of projects at different stages.展开更多
Considering the important role the demand from manufacturing has played in the development of producer services,this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of manufacturing demand on producer services efficiency throu...Considering the important role the demand from manufacturing has played in the development of producer services,this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of manufacturing demand on producer services efficiency through two channels,which are the scale effect and innovation incentives.Meanwhile,the paper also evaluates the moderating effect of economic development level on the relationship between manufacturing demand and producer services efficiency.Based on the panel data of China’s manufacturing industry and producer services from 1995 to 2014,the empirical result shows that:(1)the demand from manufacturing was helpful to improve producer services efficiency,and compared with the labor-intensive manufacturing,the demand from capital-intensive manufacturing played a more important role in improving producer services efficiency;(2)at different stages of economic development,the promoting effect of manufacturing demand on producer services efficiency showed a nonlinear threshold effect rather than a simple linear effect,namely after crossing a certain threshold of economic development level,the promoting effect would be more significant.More specifically the threshold level faced by capital-intensive manufacturing industry was higher than that faced by labor-intensive manufacturing industry.These findings may be helpful for governments to make industrial development strategy.展开更多
China's first wave of economic globalization is characterized by its full utilization of foreign advanced, especially innovative, production factors in the domestic market to develop its innovation economy. China's ...China's first wave of economic globalization is characterized by its full utilization of foreign advanced, especially innovative, production factors in the domestic market to develop its innovation economy. China's participation in global economy can be described as fully utilizing domestic low-end production factors through foreign markets. This type of participation has been overdone. As China aims to engage in a second wave of economic globalization, the focus is to implement an in-depth globalization strategy under the condition of expanding domestic demands, namely and to develop the global economy based on domestic demands, The purpose is to achieve an economic rebalance with the world and help China out of its overcapacity predicament in weaker global economic climates. Moreover, it will bring China a chance to introduce foreign advanced factors to accelerate growth and develop innovation economy by turning economic crisis in the West into opportunities.展开更多
基金s This work was supported by the National Key Technology Research and Development Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology (2016YFA0602601), Science and Technology Project of the State Grid Corporation of China Headquarters ''Research and Development of China Multi-regional Compre hensive Analysis and Forecast Mcxlel System for Energy Sup ply and Demand Fourth National Climate Assessment Report: Mitigation of Climate Change’’, and National Natural Science Foundation of China Program (71573145, 71573062).
文摘This study focuses on a national regional coordinated development strategy and adopts China Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium model to analyze the economic and social development, energy demand, and carbon emissions of the provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP, 2021 2025) period based on the economic development and energy demand since the New Normal. The main conclusions are the following: 1) Under the guidance of the regional coordinated development strategy, 13 provinces/municipalities are expected to have a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of more than US$15,000, and 16 provinces/municipalities will have a per capita GDP of US$10,000 15,000. All provincial economies are expected to achieve steady and rapid development by the end of the 14th FYP. 2) The total energy consumption of the provinces is expected to reach 5.45 Gtce (excluding Tibet) in 2025, and the average annual growth rate is approximately 1.5%. The growth of energy demand will remain in low speed. The key point of energy demand will gradually shift from the eastern to the middle area, while the proportion of energy use in the western provinces will remain stable, which is consistent with the economic development stage and regional coordinated development strategy. 3) The annual average carbon intensity (mainly considering carbon emissions from energy use) of the provinces will approximately with most provinces dropping by over 4.0%. The trend of a considerable decline in carbon intensity, as observed in recent years, is expected to continue.
文摘Software development is an important part of computer technology.only by ensuring the applicability and efficiency of the software can it really improve the efficiency of production and life,and truly inject new power into the economic benefits of the industry.As the theoretical basis of software development,the software development model directly determines the quality of software development.In this paper,starting with information technology as an important tool to improve modern management,it brings out the difficulties and pain points in the analysis of software development needs,and first puts forward the software development innovation model for building a composite core users.It takes core users with compound qualities and capabilities as the main line and guides the entire development process to enable both parties to communicate accurately and solve the pain points of demand communication,function optimization and project control to the greatest extent.Exploring application innovation in the software development model can promote innovation in the software industry.
文摘The paper makes a comprehensive prediction of China's future demand for oil and gas with two methods, i.e. the prediction method based on the demand for individual oil and gas products and the method for predicting the total demand. According to the demand prediction of, and the historical data on, the oil and gas consumption, we conduct an analysis of the oil and gas consumption trends, which can be described as six different development periods. On the other hand, the paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the domestic oil and gas resources and, on this basis, makes a basic prediction of the domestic output of oil and gas. The supply and demand situation is also analyzed. By using the SWOT analysis method, the paper puts forward the development strategies for China's oil and gas industry and gives some related strategic measures.
文摘The challenges posed by climate change require that the quantity and quality of water resources in Nepal be managed with sustainable development practices. The communities around the Kaligandaki Gorge Hydropower Project in the Myagdi District of Nepal depend on river flow for most of their rural and agricultural needs. Without a sustainable development plan, the growing population of the region, confined in an area with declining water resources, will face serious challenges to economic growth. Meteorological data show increasing annual average rainfall at a slight rate of about 0.284 mm/year, with erratic annual percentage change in rainfall in the area. The mean and minimum temperatures show decreasing trends at the rates of 0.05-C and 0.14-C per year, respectively. An assessment of the impacts on water availability for domestic and irrigation usage in the face of competing demands caused by the hydropower development project in the Kaligandaki Gorge was undertaken. The water demand and supply modeling were conducted using the water evaluation and planning (WEAP) model, based on discharge data from the Kaligandaki River, which were obtained from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Nepal. The available data from 2001 to 2003 were used to estimate the model parameters while the stability of these parameters was tested with a validation period from 2004 to 2007. The performance of the model was assessed through statistical measures of calibration with the root mean square error and coefficient of determination, whose values were 0.046% and 0.79, respectively. Two scenarios were created in addition to the base case scenario: the discharge decrement scenario and new irrigation technology scenario. Analysis showed that a prioritization of demands will be necessary in the area in the near future for the purpose of sustainability of water resources, due to climate change impacts.
文摘On June 3rd,JD.com announced that Paipai,its second-hand commodity trade platform,was strategically merged with Aihuishou(Love Recycling)which is one of the largest electronics recycling platforms in China.Recently,the Ecommerce Research Centre of 100ec.cn released the2018 Development Report for China Second-hand E-businesses(hereinafter referred to as the Report),which indicated that as of the end of 2017.
文摘Abundant potential of renewable energy(RE)in Indonesia is predicted to replace conventional energy which continues to experience depletion year by year.However,until now,the use of RE has only reached 2%of the existing potential of 441.7 GW.The main overview of this work is to investigate the availability of RE that can be utilized for electricity generation in Indonesia.National energy demand and targets in the long run during the 2017-2050 period are also discussed.Besides,government policies in supporting RE development are considered in this work.The results show that the potential of RE in Indonesia can be utilized and might replace conventional energy for decades.The use of RE for electricity generation can be achieved by employing a government policy that supports the investor as the executor of RE development.The selling price of electricity generated from RE is cheaper than electricity generated from fossils;this makes economy is more affordable for people.Finally,the target set by the government for utilizing RE as the main energy in Indonesia can be done by implementing several policies for the RE development.Thus,greenhouse gas emissions and the use of petroleum fuels can be reduced.
基金supported by the China geological survey subproject of Dynamic Track and Evaluation of the Guarantee Degree of the Main Mineral Resources in China(No.121201103000150112,N1618-8)
文摘Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world's and China's economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resources base and potential, development and utilization and their world's and China's supply and demand situation in the future 20 years. The supply and demand of these six bulk mineral products are generally balanced, with a slight surplus, which will guarantee the stability of the international mineral commodity market supply. The six mineral resources (especially iron ores and copper ores) are abundant and have a great potential, and their development and utilization scale will gradually increase. Till the end of 2014, the reserve- production ratio of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc ores and potassium salt was 95 years, 42 years, 100 years, 17 years, 37 years and 170 years, respectively. Except lead ores, the other five types all have reserve-production ratio exceeding 20 years, indicative of a high resources guarantee degree. If the utilization of recycled metals is counted in, the supply of the world's six mineral products will exceed the demand in the future twenty years. In 2015-2035, the supply of iron ores, refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead, zinc and potassium salt will exceed their demand by 0.4-0.7 billion tons (Gt), 5.0-6.0 million tons (Mt), 1.1-8.9 Mt, 1.0-2.0 Mt, 1.2-2.0 Mt and 4.8-5.6 Mt, respectively. It is predicted that there is no problem with the supply side of bulk mineral products such as iron ores, but local or structural shortage may occur because of geopolitics, monopoly control, resources nationalism and trade friction. Affected by China's compressed industrialized development model, the demand of iron ores (crude steel), potassium salt, refined lead, refined copper, bauxite (primary aluminum) and zinc will gradually reach their peak in advance. The demand peak of iron ores (crude steel) will reach around 2015, 2016 for potassium salt, 2020 for refined lead, 2021 for bauxite (primary aluminum), 2022 for refined copper and 2023 for zinc. China's demand for iron ores (crude steel), bauxite (primary aluminum) and zinc in the future 20 years will decline among the world's demand, while that for refined copper, refined lead and potassium salt will slightly increase. The demand for bulk mineral products still remains high. In 2015-2035, China's accumulative demand for iron ores (crude steel) will be 20.313 Gt (13.429 Gt), 0.304 Gt for refined copper, 2.466 Gt (0.616 Gt) of bauxite (primary aluminum), 0.102 Gt of refined lead, 0.138 Gt of zinc and 0.157 Gt of potassium salt, and they account for the world's YOY (YOY) accumulative demand of 35.17%, 51.09%, 48.47%, 46.62%, 43.95% and 21.84%, respectively. This proportion is 49.40%, 102.52%, 87.44%, 105.65%, 93.62% and 106.49% of that in 2014, respectively. From the supply side of China's bulk mineral resources, it is forecasted that the accumulative supply of primary (mine) mineral products in 2015-2035 is 4.046 Gt of iron ores, 0.591 Gt of copper, 1.129 Gt of bauxite, 63.661 Mt of (mine) lead, 0.109 Gt of (mine) zinc and 0.128 Gt of potassium salt, which accounts for 8.82%, 13.92%, 26.67%, 47.09%, 33.04% and 15.56% of the world's predicted YOY production, respectively. With the rapid increase in the smelting capacity of iron and steel and alumina, the rate of capacity utilization for crude steel, refined copper, alumina, primary aluminum and refined lead in 2014 was 72.13%, 83.63%, 74.45%, 70.76% and 72.22%, respectively. During 2000-2014, the rate of capacity utilization for China's crude steel and refined copper showed a generally fluctuating decrease, which leads to an insufficient supply of primary mineral products. It is forecasted that the supply insufficiency of iron ores in 2015-2035 is 17.44 Gt, 0.245 Gt of copper in copper concentrates, 1.337 Gt of bauxite, 38.44 Mt of lead in lead concentrates and 29.19 Mt of zinc in zinc concentrates. China has gradually raised the utilization of recycled metals, which has mitigated the insufficient supply of primary metal products to some extent. It is forecasted that in 2015-2035 the accumulative utilization amount of steel scrap (iron ores) is 3.27 Gt (5.08 Gt), 70.312 Mt of recycled copper, 0.2 Gt of recycled aluminum, 48 Mt of recycled lead and 7.7 Mt of recycled zinc. The analysis on the supply and demand situation of China's bulk mineral resources in 2015-2035 suggests that the supply-demand contradiction for these six types of mineral products will decrease, indicative of a generally declining external dependency. If the use of recycled metal amount is counted in, the external dependency of China's iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc and potassium salt will be 79%, 65%, 26%, 8%, 16% and 18% in 2014, respectively. It is predicted that this external dependency will decrease to 62%, 64%, 20%, -0.93%, 16% and 14% in 2020, respectively, showing an overall decreasing trend. We propose the following suggestions correspondingly. (1) The demand peak of China's crude steel and potassium salt will reach during 2015-2023 in succession. Mining transformation should be planned and deployed in advance to deal with the arrival of this demand peak. (2) The supply-demand contradiction of China's bulk mineral resources will mitigate in the future 20 years, and the external dependency will decrease accordingly. It is suggested to adjust the mineral resources management policies according to different minerals and regions, and regulate the exploration and development activities. (3) China should further establish and improve the forced mechanism of resolving the smelting overcapacity of steel, refined copper, primary aluminum, lead and zinc to really achieve the goal of "reducing excess production capacity". (4) In accordance with the national strategic deployment of "One Belt One Road", China should encourage the excess capacity of steel, copper, alumina and primary aluminum enterprises to transfer to those countries or areas with abundant resources, high energy matching degree and relatively excellent infrastructure. Based on the national conditions, mining condition and geopolitics of the resources countries, we will gradually build steel, copper, aluminum and lead-zinc smelting bases, and potash processing and production bases, which will promote the excess capacity to transfer to the overseas orderly. (5) It is proposed to strengthen the planning and management of renewable resources recycling and to construct industrial base of renewable metal recycling. (6) China should promote the comprehensive development and utilization of paragenetic and associated mineral species to further improve the comprehensive utilization of bulk mineral resources.
文摘The structure of technological mappings is studied and it is shown that for an important class of technological mappings there exists a continuous strategy of the behavior of firms as arbitrarily close in terms of profit. The latter is important for building the theory of economic equilibrium, which is an important tool for building the theory of sustainable economic development. Theorems of the existence of economic equilibrium under conditions of uncertainty and under general assumptions about the structure of supply and demand have been proved.
基金sponsored by the project “Economic and Environmental Assessment of Carbon Emission Trading Scheme:Theory and Evidence from China Firm-Level Data”(No. 72073055) of the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaQinglan Project of Jiangsu Province
文摘Green technology innovation meets the dual expectation of innovative development and green development perspectives.Under the canonical demand-pull and policy-push theories,a long-term mechanism for green technology innovation could be formed through upstream policy push and downstream demand-pull.Leveraging China's regional carbon emission trading scheme pilots as a quasi-natural experiment,this paper examines the policy-push and demand-pull effects on innovation in renewable energy patents.The data pertain to the city-level renewable energy patents from 2000 to 2020.Based upon the triple difference-in-difference method,results suggest that both policy-push and demandpull factors exert positive effects on innovation.This paper further explores the practical and theoretical implications of green technology innovation under the new development perspective.
文摘This paper introduces the energy consumption status in China, elaborate the affects of the unreasonable energy consumption structure on energy environment and sustainable development of economy. Simultaneously, it points out the solution, i.e., to implement integrated resources planning (IRP)/demand side management (DSM), and gives some recommendations on the way of implementing IRP/DSM.
文摘Targeted at the dynamic demands in the rapid urban construction, the planning technology strategy of the Shenzhen International Low Carbon City studies the fl exible index model based on carbon emission evaluation, and adopts rolling development and micro-circulation construction mode to achieve quick returns with small investment. Meanwhile, it also evaluates the application of low carbon technology and gives feedback in time, so as to constantly optimize and complete the low carbon city planning. In detail, it involves industrial planning, ecological restoration, transport planning, energy resource planning, architectural design, etc., for which appropriate approaches are selected according to the principle of rolling development of unit cells and based on different requirements of different stages. The quick-response and fl exible technology system can help the low carbon city to choose an appropriate technology strategy in line with its own characteristics in the start-up stage and rapid development, thus realizing the sustainable leap-forward development and providing reference for other similar regions.
基金Scientific Research and Technology Development Project(2021DJ3205)。
文摘By analyzing the distribution of global oil and gas fields and the reasons why some oil and gas fields are not in production, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves and their year-on-year changes, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas production and their year-on-year changes, and the development potential of oil and gas to be tapped in 2021, this paper sorts out systematically the current status and characteristics of global oil and gas development, summaries the major trends of global oil and gas development, puts forward enlightenment for international oil and gas cooperation. In 2021, oil and gas fields were widely distributed, the number of non-producing oil and gas fields was large;the whole oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves declined slightly, unconventional oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves dropped significantly;the overall oil and gas production continuously increased, the outputs of key resource-host countries kept year-on-year growth;undeveloped oilfields had abundant reserves and great development potential. Combined with global oil and gas geopolitics, oil and gas industry development trends, oil and gas investment intensity, and the tracking and judgment of hotspot fields, the major trends of global oil and gas development in 2021 are summarized. On this basis, the four aspects of enlightenment and suggestions for international oil and gas cooperation and development strategies are put forward: attach great importance to the obligation of marine abandonment to ensure high-quality and long-term benefit development of offshore oil and gas;adhere to the principle of not going to dangerous and chaotic places, strengthen the concentration of oil and gas assets, and establish multi stable supply bases;based on the multi-scenario demand of natural gas, realize the transformation from integrated collaboration to full oil and gas industry chain development;increase the acquisition of high-quality large-scale assets, and pay attention to the continuous optimization of the shareholding ratio of projects at different stages.
基金This paper is based on research sponsored by the following projects:National Social Science Fund“The Path Choice of Industrial Structure Transformation and Upgrading under the New Normal”(15CJl028)special funding from China Postdoctoral Science Fund“The Influence of Resource Mismatch between Manufacturing and Service Industry on China’s Non-Agricultural TFP”(2015T81010)general project of China Postdoctoral Science Fund“Resource Mismatch and China’s Industrial Total Factor Productivity”(2013M530417).
文摘Considering the important role the demand from manufacturing has played in the development of producer services,this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of manufacturing demand on producer services efficiency through two channels,which are the scale effect and innovation incentives.Meanwhile,the paper also evaluates the moderating effect of economic development level on the relationship between manufacturing demand and producer services efficiency.Based on the panel data of China’s manufacturing industry and producer services from 1995 to 2014,the empirical result shows that:(1)the demand from manufacturing was helpful to improve producer services efficiency,and compared with the labor-intensive manufacturing,the demand from capital-intensive manufacturing played a more important role in improving producer services efficiency;(2)at different stages of economic development,the promoting effect of manufacturing demand on producer services efficiency showed a nonlinear threshold effect rather than a simple linear effect,namely after crossing a certain threshold of economic development level,the promoting effect would be more significant.More specifically the threshold level faced by capital-intensive manufacturing industry was higher than that faced by labor-intensive manufacturing industry.These findings may be helpful for governments to make industrial development strategy.
文摘China's first wave of economic globalization is characterized by its full utilization of foreign advanced, especially innovative, production factors in the domestic market to develop its innovation economy. China's participation in global economy can be described as fully utilizing domestic low-end production factors through foreign markets. This type of participation has been overdone. As China aims to engage in a second wave of economic globalization, the focus is to implement an in-depth globalization strategy under the condition of expanding domestic demands, namely and to develop the global economy based on domestic demands, The purpose is to achieve an economic rebalance with the world and help China out of its overcapacity predicament in weaker global economic climates. Moreover, it will bring China a chance to introduce foreign advanced factors to accelerate growth and develop innovation economy by turning economic crisis in the West into opportunities.