Differences in Precipitation and Related Wind Dynamics and Moisture and Heat Features in Separate Areas of the South China Sea before and after Summer Monsoon Onset

Using surface and balloon-sounding measurements, satellite retrievals, and ERA5 reanalysis during 2011–20, this study compares the precipitation and related wind dynamics, moisture and heat features in different areas of the South China Sea(SCS) before and after SCS summer monsoon onset(SCSSMO). The rainy sea around Dongsha(hereafter simply referred to as Dongsha) near the north coast, and the rainless sea around Xisha(hereafter simply referred to as Xisha) in the western SCS, are selected as two typical research subregions. It is found that Dongsha, rather than Xisha, has an earlier and greater increase in precipitation after SCSSMO under the combined effect of strong low-level southwesterly winds, coastal terrain blocking and lifting, and northern cold air. When the 950-h Pa southwesterly winds enhance and advance northward, accompanied by strengthened moisture flux, there is a strong convergence of wind and moisture in Dongsha due to a sudden deceleration and rear-end collision of wind by coastal terrain blocking. Moist and warm advection over Dongsha enhances early and deepens up to 200 h Pa in association with the strengthened upward motion after SCSSMO, thereby providing ample moisture and heat to form strong precipitation. However, when the 950-h Pa southwesterly winds weaken and retreat southward, Xisha is located in a wind-break area where strong convergence and upward motion centers move in. The vertical moistening and heating by advection in Xisha enhance later and appear far weaker compared to that in Dongsha, consistent with later and weaker precipitation.

Diagnostic Study of Apparent Heat Sources and Moisture Sinks in the South China Sea and its Adjacent Areas during the Onset of 1998 SCS Monsoon

The apparent heat sources (?Q1 ?) and moisture sinks (?Q2 ?) are calculated based on the reanalyzed data of the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) from May 1 to August 31, 1998. It is found that the formation and distribution of the atmospheric heat sources are important for the monsoon onset. The earlier onset of the SCS monsoon is the result of enduring atmospheric heating in the Indo–China Peninsula and South China areas. The atmospheric heating firstly appears in the Indo–China Peninsula area and the sensible heat is the major one. The 30–50 day periodic oscillation of atmospheric heat sources between the SCS area and the western Pacific warm pool has a reverse phase distribution before the middle of July and the low frequency oscillation of heat sources in SCS area has an obvious longitudinal propagation. The 30–50 day low frequency oscillation has vital modificatory effects on the summer monsoon evolution during 1998. Key words Apparent heat sources - Apparent moisture sinks - The South China Sea monsoon - Diagnostic Study Sponsored by the National Key Project of Fundamental Research “ SCSMEX” and the Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education: “ Study of the Air-sea Interaction in the SCS Monsoon Region”.

DRAFT PROPLSAL FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA MONSOON EXPERIMENT(SCSMEX)

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EXPLORING THE ASIAN MONSOON THROUGH DRILLING IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

Both evolution of the Asian monsoon system and the Cenozoic global cooling are thought to be closely linked to the Himalayan—Tibetan orogen. The South China Sea (SCS) with its high sedimentation rates of carbonate\|rich hemipelagic sediments offers a unique opportunity to study the variability of the East Asian monsoon, the erosion and weathering of tectonic orogens as well as its possible impact on global and regional climate.Leg 184, the first deep\|sea drilling leg to the seas off China, cored 17 holes at 6 sites in the northern and southern parts of the SCS and recovered 5463m of sediment. The drilling of hemipelagic sediments was exceptionally successful, with core recovery averaging 83%～101%. The 32Ma sequence of deep\|sea sediments recovered during Leg 184 covers almost the entire environmental history of the SCS since its opening. The abnormally high sediment accumulation rates in the Oligocene section are correlative with the incipient sea floor spreading. The bathyal nature of the Oligocenefauna implies that rifting occurred in the Eocene or earlier. Faunal changesfrom the early to late Oligocene are indicative of basin deepening, a trend thatis even more evident in the Miocene section. Sediment deformation, abruptlithologic changes, and a hiatus occur near the Oligocene/Miocene boundary,representing one of the most significant events in the tectonic andenvironmental history of the SCS.

Overview of the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment

The present paper gives an overview of the key project ' South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX)' operated by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China during the period of 1996-2001. The SCSMEX is a joint atmospheric and oceanic field experiment which aims to better understand the onset, maintenance, and variability of the summer monsoon over the South China Sea (SCS). It is a large-scale international effort with many participating countries and regions cooperatively involved in this experiment. With the field observation in May-August 1998, a large amount of meteorological and oceanic data was acquired, which provides excellent datasets for the study of the SCS monsoon and the East Asian monsoon and their interaction with the ocean. The preliminary research achievements are as follows. (1) The earliest onset of the Asian monsoon over the SCS and Indo-China Peninsula has been well documented. Prom the viewpoint of the synoptic process, its onset is closely related to the early rapid development of a twin cyclone to the east of Sri Lanka. The conceptual modei of the SCS monsoon onset in 1998 was put forward. The 50-year time series of the SCS monsoon onset date was also made. (2) Two major modes, namely the 30-60-day and 10-20-day oscillations were ascertained. The influences of the abnormal SCS monsoon on the precipitation over eastern China and its modes were identifled. A strong (weak) monsoon over the SCS usually leads to less (more) precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin, and more (less) precipitation in North China. (3) During the monsoon onset over the SCS, a wide variety of organized mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) were observed by a Doppler radar array deployed over the northern SCS. The relationship between large-scale circulations and MCSs during the monsoon onset process in 1998 was clearly revealed. It was suggested that there is a kind of positive feedback mechanism between large-scale circulations and MCSs. (4) The SST over the SCS during the early period influences the timing of the monsoon onset date and the monsoon's intensity. During the monsoon onset, the ocean undergoes a process of energy release through air-sea interaction. During the break phase of the SCS monsoon, the ocean demonstrates the process of energy re-accumulation. Obvious differences in the air-sea turbulent flux exchange between the southern and northern parts of the SCS due to different characteristic features of the atmosphere and sea structure were observed in those regions. (5) The verification of impact of intensive observations on the predictive performance is made by the use of regional models. The air-sea coupled regional climate modei (CRCM) was also developed under the SCSMEX Project . The simulation of the oceanic circulation in 1998 produced with the modei was well compared with the observations.

Seasonal and spatial distributions of phytoplankton biomass associated with monsoon and oceanic environments in the South China Sea

Seasonal variations of phytoplankton/chlorophyll-a （Chl-a） distribution, sea surface wind, sea height anomaly, sea surface temperature and other oceanic environments for long periods are analyzed in the South China Sea （SCS）, especially in the two typical regions off the east coast of Vietnam and off the northwest coast of Luzon, using remote sensing data and other oceanographic data. The results show that seasonal and spatial distributions of phytoplankton biomass in the SCS are primarily influenced by the monsoon winds and oceanic environments. Off the east coast of Vietnam, Chl-a concentration is a peak in August, a jet shape extending into the interior SCS, which is associated with strong southwesterly monsoon winds, the coastal upwetling induced by offshore Ekman transport and the strong offshore current in the western SCS. In December, high Chl-a concentration appears in the upwelling region off the northwest coast of Luzon and spreads southwestward. Strong mixing by the strong northeasterly monsoon winds, the cyclonic circulation, southwestward coastal currents and river discharge have impacts on distribution of phytoplankton, so that the high phytoplankton biomass extends from the coastal areas over the northern SCS to the entire SCS in winter. These research activities could be important for revealing spatial and temporal patterns of phytoplankton and their interactions with physical environments in the SCS.

Impact of the Thermal State of the Tropical Western Pacific on Onset Date and Process of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon

Since the early or late onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon （SCSM） has a large impact on summer monsoon rainfall in East Asia, the mechanism and process of early or late onset of the SCSM are an worthy issue to study. In this paper, the results analyzed by using the observed data show that the onset date and process of the SCSM are closely associated with the thermal state of the tropical western Pacific in spring. When the tropical western Pacific is in a warming state in spring, the western Pacific subtropical high shifts eastward, and twin cyclones are early caused over the Bay of Bengal and Sumatra before the SCSM onset. In this case, the cyclonic circulation located over the Bay of Bengal can be early intensified and become into a strong trough. Thus, the westerly flow and convective activity can be intensified over Sumatra, the Indo-China Peninsula and the South China Sea （SCS） in mid-May. This leads to early onset of the SCSM. In contrast, when the tropical western Pacific is in a cooling state, the western Pacific subtropical high anomalously shifts westward, the twin cyclones located over the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean and Sumatra are weakened, and the twin anomaly anticyclones appear over these regions from late April to mid-May. Thus, the westerly flow and convective activity cannot be early intensified over the Indo-China Peninsula and the SCS. Only when the western Pacific subtropical high moves eastward, the weak trough located over the Bay of Bengal can be intensified and become into a strong trough, the strong southwesterly wind and convective activity can be intensified over the Indo-China Peninsula and the SCS in late May. Thus, this leads to late onset of the SCSM. Moreover, in this paper, the influencing mechanism of the thermal state of the tropical western Pacific on the SCSM onset is discussed further from the Walker circulation anomalies in the different thermal states of the tropical western Pacific.

On the Onset of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon in 1998

Through analyzing the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the satellite observational data and the ATLAS-2 mooring buoy observational data, it is shown that May 21 is the onset date of the South China Sea summer monsoon in 1998. There were abrupt variations in the general circulation pattern at the lower troposphere and the upper troposphere, in upper jet stream location and in the convection and rainfall over the South China Sea region corresponding to the outbreak of the South China Sea summer monsoon. It is also indicated that there was rainfall in the southern China coastal region before onset of summer monsoon, but it resulted from the (cold) front activity and cannot be regarded as the sign of summer monsoon outbreak in the South China Sea. Key words Onset - South China Sea summer monsoon - General circulation pattern, Jet stream - Convection This work was supported by the State Key Project for Research—“ The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment”, CAS (KZ951-B1-408) and CNSF (49823002).

Microphysical Characteristics of Precipitation during Pre-monsoon,Monsoon, and Post-monsoon Periods over the South China Sea

Raindrop size distribution (RSD) characteristics over the South China Sea (SCS) are examined with onboard Parsivel disdrometer measurements collected during marine surveys from 2012 to 2016. The observed rainfall is divided into premonsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon periods based on the different large-scale circumstances. In addition to disdrometer data, sounding observation, FY-2E satellite, SPRINTARS (Spectral Radiation-Transport Model for Aerosol Species), and NCEP reanalysis datasets are used to illustrate the dynamical and microphysical characteristics associated with the rainfall in different periods. Significant variations have been observed in respect of raindrops among the three periods. Intercomparison reveals that small drops (D < 1 mm) are prevalent during pre-monsoon precipitation, whereas medium drops (1?3 mm) are predominant in monsoon precipitation. Overall, the post-monsoon precipitation is characterized by the least concentration of raindrops among the three periods. But, several large raindrops could also occur due to severe convective precipitation events in this period. Classification of the precipitation into stratiform and convective regimes shows that the lg(Nw) value of convective rainfall is the largest (smallest) in the pre-monsoon (post-monsoon) period, whereas the Dm value is the smallest (largest) in the pre-monsoon (post-monsoon) period. An inversion relationship between the coefficient A and the exponential b of the Z?R relationships for precipitation during the three periods is found. Empirical relations between Dm and the radar reflectivity factors at Ku and Ka bands are also derived to improve the rainfall retrieval algorithms over the SCS. Furthermore, the possible causative mechanisms for the significant RSD variability in different periods are also discussed with respect to warm and cold rain processes, raindrop evaporation, convective activities, and other meteorological factors.

On the relationship between convection intensity of South China Sea summer monsoon and air-sea temperature difference in the tropical oceans

The annual, interannual and inter-decadal variability of convection intensity of South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon and air-sea temperature difference in the tropical ocean is analyzed, and their relationship is discussed using two data sets of 48-a SODA (simple ocean data assimilation) and NCEP/NCAR. Analyses show that in wintertime Indian Ocean (WIO), springtime central tropical Pacific (SCTP) and summertime South China Sea-West Pacific (SSCSWP), air-sea temperature difference is significantly associated with the convection intensity of South China Sea summer monsoon. Correlation of the inter-decadal time scale (above 10 a) is higher and more stable. There is inter-decadal variability of correlation in scales less than 10 a and it is related with the air-sea temperature difference itself for corresponding waters. The inter-decadal variability of the convection intensity during the South China Sea summer monsoon is closely related to the inter-decadal variability of the general circulation of the atmosphere. Since the late period of the 1970s, in the lower troposphere, the cross-equatorial flow from the Southern Hemisphere has intensified. At the upper troposphere layer, the South Asian high and cross-equatorial flow from the Northern Hemisphere has intensified at the same time. Then the monsoon cell has also strengthened and resulted in the reinforcing of the convection of South China Sea summer monsoon.

Characteristics of Clay Minerals in the Northern South China Sea and Its Implications for Evolution of East Asian Monsoon since Miocene

Clay mineral assemblages, crystallinity, chemistry, and micromorphology of clay particles in sediments from ODP Site 1146 in the northern South China Sea （SCS） were analyzed, and used to trace sediment sources and obtain proxy records of the past changes in the East Asian monsoon climate since the Miocene, based on a multi-approach, including X-ray diffraction （XRD） and scanning electron microscopy combined with energy dispersive X-ray spectrometry （SEM-EDS）. Clay minerals consist mainly of illite and smectite, with associated chlorite and kaolinite. The illite at ODP Site 1146 has very well-to-well crystallinity, and smectite has moderate-to-poor crystallinity. In SEM the smectite particles at ODP Site 1146 often appear cauliflower-like, a typical micromorphology of volcanic smecites. The smectite at ODP Site 1146 is relatively rich in Si element, but poor in Fe, very similar to the smectite from the West Philippine Sea. In contrast, the chemical composition of illite at ODP Site 1146 has no obvious differences from those of the Loess plateau, Yellow River, Yangtze River, and Pearl River. A further study on sediment source indicates that smectite originates mainly from Luzon, kaolinite from the Pearl River, and illite and chlorite from the Pearl River, Taiwan and/or the Yangtze River. The clay mineral assemblages at ODP Site 1146 were not only controlled by continental eathering regimes surrounding the SCS, but also by the changing strength of the transport processes. The ratios of （illite＋chlorite）/smectite at ODP Site 1146 were adopted as proxies for the East Asian monsoon evolution. Relatively higher ratios reflect strongly intensified winter monsoon relative to summer monsoon, in contrast, lower ratios indicate a strengthened summer monsoon relative to winter monsoon. The consistent variation of this clay proxy from those of Loess plateau, eolian deposition in the North Pacific, planktonic, benthic foraminifera, and black carbon in the SCS since 20 Ma shows that three profound shifts of the East Asian winter monsoon intensity, and aridity in the Asian inland and the intensity of winter monsoon relative to summer monsoon, occurred at about 15 Ma, 8 Ma, and the younger at about 3 Ma. The phased uplift of the Himalaya-Tibetan plateau may have played a significant role in strengthening the Asian monsoon at 15 Ma, 8 Ma, and 3 Ma.

Interannual variability in the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon from 1997 to 2014

Using observed and reanalysis datasets,the South China Sea summer monsoon（SCSSM） onset process is analyzed in each year from 1997 to 2014.Regional mean（5-20°N,110-120°E） 850 hPa zonal wind,precipitation,and SST are used as indices to describe SCSSM onset.Three distinct onset types are identified：among the 18 years studied,nine are normal onset years,which are characterized by a well-established westerly wind and associated precipitation over the South China Sea（SCS）;eight are intermittent onset years,in which monsoon precipitation does not occur continuously following the establishment of the westerly wind over the SCS;and one year,2014,is a delayed onset year,in which the western Pacific subtropical high dominates over the SCS after the seasonal transition and prevents the monsoon onset.A comparison of the first two types suggests that a positive SST gradient in the northern Indian Ocean and local SST warming in the SCS are two key factors in the normal SCSSM onset type.With regard to the influence of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation background,there are four late onset years（1997,1998,2007,and 2010） that coincide with El Nino events,but only two early-onset years（1999 and 2012） out of the six years featuring La Nina events.Further analysis suggests that the zonal thermal contrast across the Indian and western Pacific oceans modulates monsoon onset in La Nina years.

Air-sea heat flux exchange over the South China Sea under different weather conditions before and after southwest monsoon onset in 2000

With the data observed from the Second SCS Air-Sea Flux Experiment on the Xisha air-sea flux research tower, the radiation budget, latent, sensible heat fluxes and net oceanic heat budgets were caculated before and after summer monsoon onset. It is discovered that, after summer monsoon onset, there are considerable changes in air-sea fluxes, especially in latent heat fluxes and net oceanic heat budget. Furthermore, the analyzed results of five synoptic stages are compared. And the characteristics of the flux transfer during different stages around onset of South China Sea monsoon are discussed. The flux change shows that there is an oceanic heat accumulating process during the pre-onset and the break period, as same as oceanic heat losing process during the onset period. Moreover, latent fluxes, the water vapor moving to the continent, even the rainfall appearance in Chinese Mainland also can be influenced by southwester. Comparing Xisha fluxes with those obtained from the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific Ocean, their differences may be observed. It is the reason why SSTs can keep stable over the South China Sea while they decrease quickly over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal after monsoon onset.

ONSET AND RETREAT DATES OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON AND THEIR RELATIONSHIPS WITH THE MONSOON INTENSITY IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE WARMING

Global gridded daily mean data from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis(1948-2012) are used to obtain the onset date,retreat date and duration time series of the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM) for the past 65 years.The summer monsoon onset(retreat) date is defined as the time when the mean zonal wind at 850 hPa shifts steadily from easterly(westerly) to westerly(easterly) and the pseudo-equivalent potential temperature at the same level remains steady at greater than 335 K(less than 335 K) in the South China Sea area[110-120°E(10-20°N)].The clockwise vortex of the equatorial Indian Ocean region,together with the cross-equatorial flow and the subtropical high,plays a decisive role in the burst of the SCSSM.The onset date of the SCSSM is closely related to its intensity.With late(early) onset of the summer monsoon,its intensity is relatively strong(weak),and the zonal wind undergoes an early(late) abrupt change in the upper troposphere.Climate warming significantly affects the onset and retreat dates of the SCSSM and its intensity.With climate warming,the number of early-onset(-retreat) years of the SCSSM is clearly greater(less),and the SCSSM is clearly weakened.

Observational Study on the Onset of the South China Sea Southwest Monsoon

Based on the long-term marine ship observation data, records of meteorological stations and High-Reflective Cloud(HRC) data by satellite remote sensing , this paper has studied the circulation patterns and variability in elements during onset and the established periods of the South China Sea(SCS) southwest(SW) monsoon. The averaged date of the onset SW monsoon in the SCS occurs in the middle of May climatologically. The corresponding date for the northern part is little earlier (May 12) and those for the southern parts are little later (May 20). The interannual range of the onset dates is about one month. Following the onset of the SW monsoon, the cloud amount and the precipitation increase while the convection activities enhance over the SCS. But there is a strong spatial heterogeneity within the domain. After onset of the SW monsoon the strong convective area moves northwards, while the SCS rain band moves to the center and north. Sea surface temperature(SST) increases rapidly before the onset and the leading time is about one month. The increment of SST supplies heat and vapor for the onset. From April to May the surface heat fluxes display obvious changes, e.g., latent heat exchange and evaporation enhancement. It is one of the reasons why the SW monsoon bursts firstly in the SCS.

Impacts of Land Surface and Sea Surface Temperatures on the Onset Date of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon

The present study analyzes the differences in spatial and temporal variations of surface temperatures between early and late onset years of the South China Sea summer monsoon （SCSSM）. It is found that when the land surface temperature north of 40°N is lower （higher） and the sea surface temperature over the South China Sea-western North Pacific （SCS-WNP） is higher （lower） in winter, the onset of the SCSSM begins earlier （later）. When the land surface temperature north of 40°N is higher （lower） and the sea surface temperature over the SCS-WNP is lower （higher） in spring, the onset of the SCSSM occurs earlier （later）. The reason why the anomalies of the land surface temperatures north of 40°N can influence the atmospheric circulation is investigated by analysis of the wind and temperature fields. In order to verify the mechanisms of influence over the land and sea surface temperature distribution patterns and test the ability of the p-σ regional climate model （p-σ RCM9） to simulate the SCSSM onset, three types of years with early, normal, and late SCSSM onset are selected and the SCSSM regimes are numerically simulated. According to the results obtained from five sensitive experiments, when the land surface temperature is higher in the eastern part, north of 40°N, and lower in the western part, north of 40°N, and it rises faster in the eastern coastal regions and the Indian Peninsula, while the sea surface temperatures over the SCS-WNP are lower, the early onset of the SCSSM can be expected.

A preliminary study on the response of marine primary production to monsoon variations in the South China Sea Basic characteristics

Seasonal, interannual and interdecadal variations of monsoon over the South China Sea （SCS） directly influence the ocean circulation and the mass transport process, etc. , especially the changes of horizontal circulation pattern and upwelling area. These changes directly influence the nutrient transport and the photosynthesis of phytoplankton, which induce the change of the marine ecosystem in the SCS, including the change of marine primary production in this sea area. On the basis of climatic data for long-time series and primary production estimated by remote sensing, the multi-time scale variations of monsoon, seasonal and interannual variations of primary production, and the response of primary production to monsoon variations were analyzed. Furthermore, the spatio-temporal variations of primary production in different sea areas of the SCS and their relations to the monsoon variations were given. The results showed that the strong southwesterly prevailed over the SCS in summer whereas the vigorous northeasterly in winter. The seasonal primary production in the entire sea area of the SCS also produced a strong peak in winter and a suhpeak in summer. And the seasonal primary production distributions displayed different characteristics in every typical sea area. The variations of the annual and summer averaged primary production in the entire sea area of the SCS showed almost the same rising trend as the intensity of the summer monsoon. Especially for 1998, the summer monsoon reached almost the minimum in the past 54 a when the primary production was also found much lower than any other year （ 1999--2005 ）. The responses of annual primary production to monsoon variation were displayed to different extent in different sea areas of the SCS ; especially it was better in the deep sea basin. Such research activities could be very important for revealing the response of marine ecosystem to the monsoon variations in the SCS.

Influence of Tropical Western Pacific Warm Pool Thermal State on the Interdecadal Change of the Onset of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon in the Late-1990s

An interdecadal shift in the onset date of the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM) is identified during the late 1990 s by using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis dataset. The mean onset date was brought forward by two pentads during 1999–2013 compared to that during 1979–1998. The large-scale atmospheric and oceanic change associated with this shift exhibits a significant interdecadal variation signal around 1998/1999, indicating that the shift during the late 1990 s is robust. Different from the well-known mid-1990 s shift, this shift carried more important systematical significance. Diagnostic analysis suggests that the earlier outbreak of the SCSSM was due to the interdecadal warming of the warm pool, which brought stronger convection anomalies and led to a weak western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH) during boreal spring(March–May). The earlier retreat of the WPSH was a direct cause of this shift.

DETERMINATION OF ONSET DATE OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON IN 2006 USING LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATIONS

Since the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SCSSM) is pronouncedly featured by abruptly intensified southwesterly and obviously increased precipitation over the SCS,the lower-tropospheric winds and/or convection intensities are widely used to determine the SCSSM onset.The methods can be used successfully in most of the years but not in 2006.Due to the intrusion of Typhoon Chanchu(0601)that year,the usual method of determining SCSSM onset date by utilizing the SCS regional indices is less capable of pinpointing the real onset date.In order to solve the problem,larger-scale situations have to be taken into account.Zonal and meridional circulations would be better to determine the break-out date of SCSSM in 2006.The result indicates that its onset date is May 16.Moreover,similar onset dates for other years can be obtained using various methods,implying that large-scale zonal and meridional circulations can be used as an alternative method for determining the SCSSM onset date.

Predictability of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset

Predicting monsoon onset is crucial for agriculture and socioeconomic planning in countries where millions rely on the timely arrival of monsoon rains for their livelihoods. In this study we demonstrate useful skill in predicting year-to-year variations in South China Sea summer monsoon onset at up to a three-month lead time using the GloSea5 seasonal forecasting system. The main source of predictability comes from skillful prediction of Pacific sea surface temperatures associated with El Ni?no and La Ni?na. The South China Sea summer monsoon onset is a known indicator of the broadscale seasonal transition that represents the first stage of the onset of the Asian summer monsoon as a whole. Subsequent development of rainfall across East Asia is influenced by subseasonal variability and synoptic events that reduce predictability, but interannual variability in the broadscale monsoon onset for East Asian summer monsoon still provides potentially useful information for users about possible delays or early occurrence of the onset of rainfall over East Asia.