Based on the logical causal relationship and taking Liaoning Province, China, which is the Chinese traditional industrial base and is in the stage of accelerated urbanisation, as a case study, this study builds the ′...Based on the logical causal relationship and taking Liaoning Province, China, which is the Chinese traditional industrial base and is in the stage of accelerated urbanisation, as a case study, this study builds the ′Urbanisation-Energy Consumption-CO2 Emissions System Dynamics(UEC-SD)′ model using a system dynamics method. The UEC-SD model is applied to analyse the effect of the urbanisation process on the regional energy structure and CO2 emissions, followed by simulation of future production and living energy consumption structure as well as the evolutionary trend of CO2 emissions of three urbanisation scenarios(low speed, intermediate speed and high speed) under the assumed boundary conditions in urban and rural areas of Liaoning Province, China. The results show that the urbanisation process can alter production and the living energy consumption structure and thereby change regional CO2 emissions. An increase in the urbanisation rate in case area will lead to regional CO2 emissions rising in the short term, but when the urbanisation rate approaches 80%, CO2 emissions will reach a peak value and then decrease. Comparison of different urbanisation rates showed that production and living energy consumption exhibit different directions of change and rules in urban and rural areas. The effect of urbanisation on CO2 emissions and energy structure is not direct, and urbanisation can increase the differences in energy and CO2 emissions between urban and rural areas caused by the industrial structure, technical level and other factors.展开更多
Based on the system dynamics(SD) model, this paper puts forward a quantitative method to evaluate the earthquake emergency plan in China. Firstly, we analyze the disaster system structure and the content of plan. Usin...Based on the system dynamics(SD) model, this paper puts forward a quantitative method to evaluate the earthquake emergency plan in China. Firstly, we analyze the disaster system structure and the content of plan. Using the analysis results, we establish a system dynamics(SD) model and then carry out its simulation. According to the simulation results, the rescue effect using the plan of 2012 is better than that of 2006. From the policy level, in order to reduce loss, government should maintain communication smoothly, improve the ability of self and mutual help, strengthen the management of public opinion, and pay more attention to secondary disasters.展开更多
Is Chinese urbanization going to take a long time, or can its development goal be achieved by the government in a short time? What is the highest stable urbanization level that China can reach? When can China complete...Is Chinese urbanization going to take a long time, or can its development goal be achieved by the government in a short time? What is the highest stable urbanization level that China can reach? When can China complete its urbanization? To answer these questions, this paper presents a system dynamic(SD) model of Chinese urbanization, and its validity and simulation are justified by a stock-flow test and a sensitivity analysis using real data from 1998 to 2013. Setting the initial conditions of the simulation by referring to the real data of 2013, the multi-scenario analysis from 2013 to 2050 reveals that Chinese urbanization will reach a level higher than 70% in 2035 and then proceed to a slow urbanization stage regardless of the population policy and GDP growth rate settings; in 2050, Chinese urbanization levels will reach approximately 75%, which is a stable and equilibrium level for China. Thus, it can be argued that Chinese urbanization is a long social development process that will require approximately20 years to complete and that the ultimate urbanization level will be 75–80%, which means that in the distant future, 20–25% of China's population will still settle in rural regions of China.展开更多
推进装备高质量发展的关键是增强军队和地方系统跨组织质量管理合力,以此为目标研究两者之间的耦合协调关系。针对传统耦合协调度模型只考虑测算子系统内各个指标对整体有效程度,忽略了指标之间、指标与子系统之间相互作用对整体耦合效...推进装备高质量发展的关键是增强军队和地方系统跨组织质量管理合力,以此为目标研究两者之间的耦合协调关系。针对传统耦合协调度模型只考虑测算子系统内各个指标对整体有效程度,忽略了指标之间、指标与子系统之间相互作用对整体耦合效应产生影响的问题,采用可持续发展系统(sustainable development system, SDS)协调发展模型与耦合协调度模型结合的方法,在计算耦合度时将各子系统指标受其他子系统的总影响纳入其中,更加科学全面地测量整体耦合协调程度,最后通过实例验证了该方法的可行性。展开更多
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41301637,41101117,41271186)Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71133003)
文摘Based on the logical causal relationship and taking Liaoning Province, China, which is the Chinese traditional industrial base and is in the stage of accelerated urbanisation, as a case study, this study builds the ′Urbanisation-Energy Consumption-CO2 Emissions System Dynamics(UEC-SD)′ model using a system dynamics method. The UEC-SD model is applied to analyse the effect of the urbanisation process on the regional energy structure and CO2 emissions, followed by simulation of future production and living energy consumption structure as well as the evolutionary trend of CO2 emissions of three urbanisation scenarios(low speed, intermediate speed and high speed) under the assumed boundary conditions in urban and rural areas of Liaoning Province, China. The results show that the urbanisation process can alter production and the living energy consumption structure and thereby change regional CO2 emissions. An increase in the urbanisation rate in case area will lead to regional CO2 emissions rising in the short term, but when the urbanisation rate approaches 80%, CO2 emissions will reach a peak value and then decrease. Comparison of different urbanisation rates showed that production and living energy consumption exhibit different directions of change and rules in urban and rural areas. The effect of urbanisation on CO2 emissions and energy structure is not direct, and urbanisation can increase the differences in energy and CO2 emissions between urban and rural areas caused by the industrial structure, technical level and other factors.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(91224007)
文摘Based on the system dynamics(SD) model, this paper puts forward a quantitative method to evaluate the earthquake emergency plan in China. Firstly, we analyze the disaster system structure and the content of plan. Using the analysis results, we establish a system dynamics(SD) model and then carry out its simulation. According to the simulation results, the rescue effect using the plan of 2012 is better than that of 2006. From the policy level, in order to reduce loss, government should maintain communication smoothly, improve the ability of self and mutual help, strengthen the management of public opinion, and pay more attention to secondary disasters.
文摘在软件定义网络(software-defined networking,SDN)中,OpenFlow交换机通常采用三态内容可寻址存储器(ternary content addressable memory,TCAM)存储流表,以支持快速通配查找.然而,TCAM采用并行查找方式,查找能耗高,因此有必要为OpenFlow交换机选择合适的TCAM容量,以平衡分组转发时延和能耗.针对软件定义数据中心网络(software-defined data center network,SD-DCN)这一典型应用场景,利用多优先级M/G/1排队模型刻画OpenFlow交换机的分组处理过程,进而建立OpenFlow分组转发时延模型.同时,基于网络流分布特性,建立TCAM流表命中率模型,以求解OpenFlow分组转发时延与TCAM容量的关系式.在此基础上,结合TCAM查找能耗,建立OpenFlow分组转发能效联合优化模型,并设计优化算法求解TCAM最优容量.实验结果表明:所提时延模型比现有模型更能准确刻画OpenFlow分组转发时延.同时,利用优化算法求解不同参数配置下的TCAM最优容量,为SD-DCN实际部署提供参考依据.
基金supported by the Key Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China “the SD model and threshold value prediction of the interactive coupled effects between urbanization and eco-environment in mega-urban agglomerations” (Grant No. 41590844)the Independent Research Program of Tsinghua University (Grant No. 2015THZ01)
文摘Is Chinese urbanization going to take a long time, or can its development goal be achieved by the government in a short time? What is the highest stable urbanization level that China can reach? When can China complete its urbanization? To answer these questions, this paper presents a system dynamic(SD) model of Chinese urbanization, and its validity and simulation are justified by a stock-flow test and a sensitivity analysis using real data from 1998 to 2013. Setting the initial conditions of the simulation by referring to the real data of 2013, the multi-scenario analysis from 2013 to 2050 reveals that Chinese urbanization will reach a level higher than 70% in 2035 and then proceed to a slow urbanization stage regardless of the population policy and GDP growth rate settings; in 2050, Chinese urbanization levels will reach approximately 75%, which is a stable and equilibrium level for China. Thus, it can be argued that Chinese urbanization is a long social development process that will require approximately20 years to complete and that the ultimate urbanization level will be 75–80%, which means that in the distant future, 20–25% of China's population will still settle in rural regions of China.
文摘推进装备高质量发展的关键是增强军队和地方系统跨组织质量管理合力,以此为目标研究两者之间的耦合协调关系。针对传统耦合协调度模型只考虑测算子系统内各个指标对整体有效程度,忽略了指标之间、指标与子系统之间相互作用对整体耦合效应产生影响的问题,采用可持续发展系统(sustainable development system, SDS)协调发展模型与耦合协调度模型结合的方法,在计算耦合度时将各子系统指标受其他子系统的总影响纳入其中,更加科学全面地测量整体耦合协调程度,最后通过实例验证了该方法的可行性。
