[目的]探索环境变量与经济的相互影响关系,研究绿色GDP(GGDP)和GDP的趋势关系并预测未来趋势变化,分析GGDP替代GDP作为政策指标的可行性,为推进区域可持续发展提供科学指导。[方法]基于联合国综合环境与经济核算体系(system of integrat...[目的]探索环境变量与经济的相互影响关系,研究绿色GDP(GGDP)和GDP的趋势关系并预测未来趋势变化,分析GGDP替代GDP作为政策指标的可行性,为推进区域可持续发展提供科学指导。[方法]基于联合国综合环境与经济核算体系(system of integrated environmental and economic accounting,SEEA),采用相关性分析方法,根据经济结构、发展水平和政策制度的不同选取了6个具有代表性国家的环境因素,与GDP进行了相关性分析,并使用一元线性回归方程对各国的GDP与GGDP进行拟合分析;利用ARIMA,Holt-Winters和灰度GM(1,1)模型对GGDP和GDP数据进行预测分析。通过模型误差对比分析最优预测结果。[结果]在经济发展的前期,GDP与GGDP、环境呈现负相关。随着可持续发展的经济结构完善,负相关逐步趋于缓和,最终实现回暖,呈现U形趋势。预测分析结果得出ARIMA模型最适合预测GDP,Holt-Winters模型最适合预测GGDP,且两者均呈现增长趋势,但GGDP增速不及GDP增速。[结论]结合中国实际情况,建议中国经济核算指标从GDP转向GGDP,且应加大环境经济投入,有助于实现经济、社会和环境的可持续发展,建设资源节约型和环境友好型的可持续发展社会。展开更多
Nowadays, there are several kinds of account system about Green GDP,such as Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting(SEEA),National Accounting Matrix including Environmental Accounts(NAMEA),European System for...Nowadays, there are several kinds of account system about Green GDP,such as Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting(SEEA),National Accounting Matrix including Environmental Accounts(NAMEA),European System for the Collection of Economic Information on Environment,Environmental and Natural Resources Accounting Project and so on.The paper mainly talks about SEEA and NAMEA.Both SEEA and NAMEA do well in containing environmental accounting,but there are significant difference in accounting thinking and method.We will make some comparison and analysis.展开更多
SEEA, namely integrated environmental and economic accounting system, is based on SNA.Considering the scope, framework,concept of accounting and evaluation methods,this paper argues how SEEA develops the useful and di...SEEA, namely integrated environmental and economic accounting system, is based on SNA.Considering the scope, framework,concept of accounting and evaluation methods,this paper argues how SEEA develops the useful and discards the useless contrasted to SNA in detail.The author believes,although SEEA applies itself to bringing resource and environment factor into traditional national economic accounting, which results in expanding the scope of accounting and forming a new system of concepts,this reconstruction is limited.The author points out some problems existed in the SEEA formed in this way:the framework of accounting seems too complex,the concept and definition is also asymmetric,and the evaluation method needs to be developed further.展开更多
The United Nations Committee of Experts on Environmental-Economic Accounting was established by the United Nations Statistical Commission at its at its 36th Session in March 2005.The United Nations Statistics Division...The United Nations Committee of Experts on Environmental-Economic Accounting was established by the United Nations Statistical Commission at its at its 36th Session in March 2005.The United Nations Statistics Division organized a preliminary meeting of the Committee of Experts on Environmental-Economic Accounting in New York from 29 to 31 August 2005.At the meeting,participants agreed on terms of reference for the Committee;formulated its long-term objectives;developed its program of work;and agreed on its governance.The terms of reference for the Committee were approved by the Bureau of the Statistical Commission in November 2005 and are contained in the annex.At its preliminary meeting, the Committee agreed on its overall objectives, namely:(a) to mainstream environmental-economic accounting and related statistics;(b) to elevate the System of Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting (SEEA) to an international statistical standard; and (c) to advance the implementation of SEEA at the global level.With the objective of the Committee to elevate the SEEA to an international statistical standard on environmental-economic accounting by 2010,the advancement of methodologies in environmental-economic accounting is an important element of work for the Committee.This paper will provide a preliminary list of unresolved issues in the SEEA-2003 which are needed to be further developed in the coming years.展开更多
文摘[目的]探索环境变量与经济的相互影响关系,研究绿色GDP(GGDP)和GDP的趋势关系并预测未来趋势变化,分析GGDP替代GDP作为政策指标的可行性,为推进区域可持续发展提供科学指导。[方法]基于联合国综合环境与经济核算体系(system of integrated environmental and economic accounting,SEEA),采用相关性分析方法,根据经济结构、发展水平和政策制度的不同选取了6个具有代表性国家的环境因素,与GDP进行了相关性分析,并使用一元线性回归方程对各国的GDP与GGDP进行拟合分析;利用ARIMA,Holt-Winters和灰度GM(1,1)模型对GGDP和GDP数据进行预测分析。通过模型误差对比分析最优预测结果。[结果]在经济发展的前期,GDP与GGDP、环境呈现负相关。随着可持续发展的经济结构完善,负相关逐步趋于缓和,最终实现回暖,呈现U形趋势。预测分析结果得出ARIMA模型最适合预测GDP,Holt-Winters模型最适合预测GGDP,且两者均呈现增长趋势,但GGDP增速不及GDP增速。[结论]结合中国实际情况,建议中国经济核算指标从GDP转向GGDP,且应加大环境经济投入,有助于实现经济、社会和环境的可持续发展,建设资源节约型和环境友好型的可持续发展社会。
文摘Nowadays, there are several kinds of account system about Green GDP,such as Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting(SEEA),National Accounting Matrix including Environmental Accounts(NAMEA),European System for the Collection of Economic Information on Environment,Environmental and Natural Resources Accounting Project and so on.The paper mainly talks about SEEA and NAMEA.Both SEEA and NAMEA do well in containing environmental accounting,but there are significant difference in accounting thinking and method.We will make some comparison and analysis.
文摘SEEA, namely integrated environmental and economic accounting system, is based on SNA.Considering the scope, framework,concept of accounting and evaluation methods,this paper argues how SEEA develops the useful and discards the useless contrasted to SNA in detail.The author believes,although SEEA applies itself to bringing resource and environment factor into traditional national economic accounting, which results in expanding the scope of accounting and forming a new system of concepts,this reconstruction is limited.The author points out some problems existed in the SEEA formed in this way:the framework of accounting seems too complex,the concept and definition is also asymmetric,and the evaluation method needs to be developed further.
文摘The United Nations Committee of Experts on Environmental-Economic Accounting was established by the United Nations Statistical Commission at its at its 36th Session in March 2005.The United Nations Statistics Division organized a preliminary meeting of the Committee of Experts on Environmental-Economic Accounting in New York from 29 to 31 August 2005.At the meeting,participants agreed on terms of reference for the Committee;formulated its long-term objectives;developed its program of work;and agreed on its governance.The terms of reference for the Committee were approved by the Bureau of the Statistical Commission in November 2005 and are contained in the annex.At its preliminary meeting, the Committee agreed on its overall objectives, namely:(a) to mainstream environmental-economic accounting and related statistics;(b) to elevate the System of Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting (SEEA) to an international statistical standard; and (c) to advance the implementation of SEEA at the global level.With the objective of the Committee to elevate the SEEA to an international statistical standard on environmental-economic accounting by 2010,the advancement of methodologies in environmental-economic accounting is an important element of work for the Committee.This paper will provide a preliminary list of unresolved issues in the SEEA-2003 which are needed to be further developed in the coming years.
