This article attempts to establish a mathematical epidemic model for the outbreak of the new COVID-19 coronavirus.A new consideration for evaluating and controlling the COVID-19 outbreak will be constructed based on t...This article attempts to establish a mathematical epidemic model for the outbreak of the new COVID-19 coronavirus.A new consideration for evaluating and controlling the COVID-19 outbreak will be constructed based on the SEIQR Pandemic Model.In this paper,the real data of COVID-19 spread in Saudi Arabia has been used for the mathematical model and dynamic analyses.Including the new reproductive number and detailed stability analysis,the dynamics of the proposed SEIQR model have been applied.The local sensitivity of the reproduction number has been analyzed.The domain of solution and equilibrium based on the SEIQR model have been proved using a Jacobian linearization process.The state of equilibrium and its significance have been proved,and a study of the integrity of the disease-free equilibrium has been carried out.The Lyapunov stability theorem demonstrated the global stability of the current model equilibrium.The SEIQR model has been numerically validated and projected by contrasting the results from the SEIQR model with the actual COVID-19 spread data in Saudi Arabia.The result of this paper shows that the SEIQR model is a model that is effective in analyzing epidemic spread,such as COVID-19.At the end of the study,we have implemented the protocol which helped the Saudi population to stop the spread of COVID-19 rapidly.展开更多
In this paper, we study a kind of the delayed SEIQR infectious disease model with the quarantine and latent, and get the threshold value which determines the global dynamics and the outcome of the disease. The model h...In this paper, we study a kind of the delayed SEIQR infectious disease model with the quarantine and latent, and get the threshold value which determines the global dynamics and the outcome of the disease. The model has a disease-free equilibrium which is unstable when the basic reproduction number is greater than unity. At the same time, it has a unique endemic equilibrium when the basic reproduction number is greater than unity. According to the mathematical dynamics analysis, we show that disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium are locally asymptotically stable by using Hurwitz criterion and they are globally asymptotically stable by using suitable Lyapunov functions for any Besides, the SEIQR model with nonlinear incidence rate is studied, and the that the basic reproduction number is a unity can be found out. Finally, numerical simulations are performed to illustrate and verify the conclusions that will be useful for us to control the spread of infectious diseases. Meanwhile, the will effect changing trends of in system (1), which is obvious in simulations. Here, we take as an example to explain that.展开更多
COVID-19 is a constantly challenging global health issue due to its strong intensity,rapid mutation and high infectiousness.The new Delta and Omicron variants have triggered massive outbreaks worldwide.Even China,whic...COVID-19 is a constantly challenging global health issue due to its strong intensity,rapid mutation and high infectiousness.The new Delta and Omicron variants have triggered massive outbreaks worldwide.Even China,which has done a good job in outbreak prevention,is still heavily affected by the virus.The long-term fight against multiple COVID-19 outbreaks is ongoing.In this study,we propose an SEIQR model that considers the incubation period and quarantine measurement.We verified our model using actual outbreak data from four Chinese cities.Numerical simulations show that a five-day delay results in a double resurgence scale.Our model can be used as a tool to understand the spread of the virus quantitatively and provide a reference for policymaking accordingly.展开更多
Background Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)has caused a serious epidemic around the world,but it has been effectively controlled in the mainland of China.The Chinese government limited the migration of people almost...Background Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)has caused a serious epidemic around the world,but it has been effectively controlled in the mainland of China.The Chinese government limited the migration of people almost from all walks of life.Medical workers have rushed into Hubei province to fight against the epidemic.Any activity that can increase infection is prohibited.The aim of this study was to confirm that timely lockdown,large-scale case-screening and other control measures proposed by the Chinese government were effective to contain the spread of the virus in the mainland of China.Methods Based on disease transmission-related parameters,this study was designed to predict the trend of COVID-19 epidemic in the mainland of China and provide theoretical basis for current prevention and control.An SEIQR epidemiological model incorporating asymptomatic transmission,short term immunity and imperfect isolation was constructed to evaluate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 inside and outside of Hubei province.With COVID-19 cases confirmed by the National Health Commission(NHC),the optimal parameters of the model were set by calculating the minimum Chi-square value.Results Before the migration to and from Wuhan was cut off,the basic reproduction number in China was 5.6015.From 23 January to 26 January 2020,the basic reproduction number in China was 6.6037.From 27 January to 11 February 2020,the basic reproduction number outside Hubei province dropped below 1,but that in Hubei province remained 3.7732.Because of stricter controlling measures,especially after the initiation of the large-scale case-screening,the epidemic rampancy in Hubei has also been contained.The average basic reproduction number in Hubei province was 3.4094 as of 25 February 2020.We estimated the cumulative number of confirmed cases nationwide was 82186,and 69230 in Hubei province on 9 April 2020.Conclusions The lockdown of Hubei province significantly reduced the basic reproduction number.The large-scale case-screening also showed the effectiveness in the epidemic control.This study provided experiences that could be replicated in other countries suffering from the epidemic.Although the epidemic is subsiding in China,the controlling efforts should not be terminated before May.展开更多
基金The authors are grateful and thank the Research and Development Grants Program for National Research Institutions and Centres(GRANTS),Target Research Program,Infectious Diseases Research Grant Program,King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology(KACST)Kingdom of Saudi Arabia,for funding this project and this work with grant number(5-20-01-007-0002).
文摘This article attempts to establish a mathematical epidemic model for the outbreak of the new COVID-19 coronavirus.A new consideration for evaluating and controlling the COVID-19 outbreak will be constructed based on the SEIQR Pandemic Model.In this paper,the real data of COVID-19 spread in Saudi Arabia has been used for the mathematical model and dynamic analyses.Including the new reproductive number and detailed stability analysis,the dynamics of the proposed SEIQR model have been applied.The local sensitivity of the reproduction number has been analyzed.The domain of solution and equilibrium based on the SEIQR model have been proved using a Jacobian linearization process.The state of equilibrium and its significance have been proved,and a study of the integrity of the disease-free equilibrium has been carried out.The Lyapunov stability theorem demonstrated the global stability of the current model equilibrium.The SEIQR model has been numerically validated and projected by contrasting the results from the SEIQR model with the actual COVID-19 spread data in Saudi Arabia.The result of this paper shows that the SEIQR model is a model that is effective in analyzing epidemic spread,such as COVID-19.At the end of the study,we have implemented the protocol which helped the Saudi population to stop the spread of COVID-19 rapidly.
文摘In this paper, we study a kind of the delayed SEIQR infectious disease model with the quarantine and latent, and get the threshold value which determines the global dynamics and the outcome of the disease. The model has a disease-free equilibrium which is unstable when the basic reproduction number is greater than unity. At the same time, it has a unique endemic equilibrium when the basic reproduction number is greater than unity. According to the mathematical dynamics analysis, we show that disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium are locally asymptotically stable by using Hurwitz criterion and they are globally asymptotically stable by using suitable Lyapunov functions for any Besides, the SEIQR model with nonlinear incidence rate is studied, and the that the basic reproduction number is a unity can be found out. Finally, numerical simulations are performed to illustrate and verify the conclusions that will be useful for us to control the spread of infectious diseases. Meanwhile, the will effect changing trends of in system (1), which is obvious in simulations. Here, we take as an example to explain that.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11971074).
文摘COVID-19 is a constantly challenging global health issue due to its strong intensity,rapid mutation and high infectiousness.The new Delta and Omicron variants have triggered massive outbreaks worldwide.Even China,which has done a good job in outbreak prevention,is still heavily affected by the virus.The long-term fight against multiple COVID-19 outbreaks is ongoing.In this study,we propose an SEIQR model that considers the incubation period and quarantine measurement.We verified our model using actual outbreak data from four Chinese cities.Numerical simulations show that a five-day delay results in a double resurgence scale.Our model can be used as a tool to understand the spread of the virus quantitatively and provide a reference for policymaking accordingly.
文摘Background Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)has caused a serious epidemic around the world,but it has been effectively controlled in the mainland of China.The Chinese government limited the migration of people almost from all walks of life.Medical workers have rushed into Hubei province to fight against the epidemic.Any activity that can increase infection is prohibited.The aim of this study was to confirm that timely lockdown,large-scale case-screening and other control measures proposed by the Chinese government were effective to contain the spread of the virus in the mainland of China.Methods Based on disease transmission-related parameters,this study was designed to predict the trend of COVID-19 epidemic in the mainland of China and provide theoretical basis for current prevention and control.An SEIQR epidemiological model incorporating asymptomatic transmission,short term immunity and imperfect isolation was constructed to evaluate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 inside and outside of Hubei province.With COVID-19 cases confirmed by the National Health Commission(NHC),the optimal parameters of the model were set by calculating the minimum Chi-square value.Results Before the migration to and from Wuhan was cut off,the basic reproduction number in China was 5.6015.From 23 January to 26 January 2020,the basic reproduction number in China was 6.6037.From 27 January to 11 February 2020,the basic reproduction number outside Hubei province dropped below 1,but that in Hubei province remained 3.7732.Because of stricter controlling measures,especially after the initiation of the large-scale case-screening,the epidemic rampancy in Hubei has also been contained.The average basic reproduction number in Hubei province was 3.4094 as of 25 February 2020.We estimated the cumulative number of confirmed cases nationwide was 82186,and 69230 in Hubei province on 9 April 2020.Conclusions The lockdown of Hubei province significantly reduced the basic reproduction number.The large-scale case-screening also showed the effectiveness in the epidemic control.This study provided experiences that could be replicated in other countries suffering from the epidemic.Although the epidemic is subsiding in China,the controlling efforts should not be terminated before May.
