Sri Lanka is experiencing speedy urbanization by converting the agriculture land and other natural land cover into built-up land. The urban population of Sri Lanka is expected to reach to 60% by 2030 from 14% in 2010....Sri Lanka is experiencing speedy urbanization by converting the agriculture land and other natural land cover into built-up land. The urban population of Sri Lanka is expected to reach to 60% by 2030 from 14% in 2010. The rapid growth in urban population and urban areas in Sri Lanka may cause serious socioeconomic disparities, if they are not handled properly. Thus, planners in Sri Lanka are in need of information about past and future urban growth patterns to plan a better and sustainable urban future for Sri Lanka. In this paper, we analyzed the characteristics of past land use and land cover trends in Matara City of Sri Lanka from 1980 to 2010 to assess the historic urban dynamics. The land use change detection analysis based on remote sensing datasets reveal that the conversion of homestead/garden and paddy into urban land is evident in Matara City. The historic urban trends are projected into the near future by using SLEUTH urban growth model to identify the hot spots of future urbanization and as well as the urban growth patterns in Matara City up to the basic administrative level, i.e., Grama Niladari Divisions(GND). The urban growth simulations for the year 2030 reveal that 29 GNDs out of 66 GNDs in Matara City will be totally converted into urban land. Whereas, 28 GNDs will have urban land cover from 75% to 99% by 2030. The urban growth simulations are further analyzed with respect to the proposed Matara city development plan by the Urban Development Authority(UDA) of Sri Lanka. The results show that the UDA's city development plan of Matara will soon be outpaced by rapid urbanization. Based on the calibration and validation results, the SLEUTH model proved to be a useful planning tool to understand the near future urbanization of Sri Lankan cities.展开更多
为解决区域问题,该文提出一种基于SLEUTH(slope land use exclusive layer urbanization transportation hillshade)模型的主体功能区划方法,可以根据土地利用的变化趋势对已划分好的主体功能区进行适当调整。以快速城镇化典型区苏锡地...为解决区域问题,该文提出一种基于SLEUTH(slope land use exclusive layer urbanization transportation hillshade)模型的主体功能区划方法,可以根据土地利用的变化趋势对已划分好的主体功能区进行适当调整。以快速城镇化典型区苏锡地区为例,运用SLEUTH模型对已划分好的主体功能区从2009-2030年在不同情景下进行模拟,直观地反映出主体功能区划对土地利用变化的影响,据此对初次划分中由于条件模糊而难以判断的部分区域进行调整和优化,从而得到苏锡地区完整的主体功能区。结果表明该方法使主体功能区划具有直观的预测性和可调整性。该方法为合理实施主体功能区划提供技术性保障。展开更多
Urban planning has become a widely concern for minimizing the negative effects of urban expansion on terrestrial ecosystems. We developed an interdisciplinary modeling framework to evaluate the effectiveness and short...Urban planning has become a widely concern for minimizing the negative effects of urban expansion on terrestrial ecosystems. We developed an interdisciplinary modeling framework to evaluate the effectiveness and shortcomings of urban expansion management strategies. A three-step method was applied to Yinchuan Plain in the northwestern of China, including(1)analyzing the relationship between landscape pattern and ecosystem service values through mathematical statistics;(2) predicting landscape pattern and ecosystem services change under different scenarios based on cellular automaton model(SLEUTH-3r model); and(3) designing and validating optimized scenario through integrating historical analysis experiments and future multi-comparison suggestions. Results have suggested that landscape composition and configuration can significantly affect regional ecosystem service values, especially the connectivity and shape of landscape. Compact urban growth policy and medium environment protection policy are the appropriate setting for urban expansion plan. Optimization validation of the combined designed scenario implied the reliability of this method. Our results highlighted the significance of integrating application of landscape pattern analysis, ecosystem service value evaluation,model simulation and multi-scenario prediction in urban planning.展开更多
文摘Sri Lanka is experiencing speedy urbanization by converting the agriculture land and other natural land cover into built-up land. The urban population of Sri Lanka is expected to reach to 60% by 2030 from 14% in 2010. The rapid growth in urban population and urban areas in Sri Lanka may cause serious socioeconomic disparities, if they are not handled properly. Thus, planners in Sri Lanka are in need of information about past and future urban growth patterns to plan a better and sustainable urban future for Sri Lanka. In this paper, we analyzed the characteristics of past land use and land cover trends in Matara City of Sri Lanka from 1980 to 2010 to assess the historic urban dynamics. The land use change detection analysis based on remote sensing datasets reveal that the conversion of homestead/garden and paddy into urban land is evident in Matara City. The historic urban trends are projected into the near future by using SLEUTH urban growth model to identify the hot spots of future urbanization and as well as the urban growth patterns in Matara City up to the basic administrative level, i.e., Grama Niladari Divisions(GND). The urban growth simulations for the year 2030 reveal that 29 GNDs out of 66 GNDs in Matara City will be totally converted into urban land. Whereas, 28 GNDs will have urban land cover from 75% to 99% by 2030. The urban growth simulations are further analyzed with respect to the proposed Matara city development plan by the Urban Development Authority(UDA) of Sri Lanka. The results show that the UDA's city development plan of Matara will soon be outpaced by rapid urbanization. Based on the calibration and validation results, the SLEUTH model proved to be a useful planning tool to understand the near future urbanization of Sri Lankan cities.
文摘为解决区域问题,该文提出一种基于SLEUTH(slope land use exclusive layer urbanization transportation hillshade)模型的主体功能区划方法,可以根据土地利用的变化趋势对已划分好的主体功能区进行适当调整。以快速城镇化典型区苏锡地区为例,运用SLEUTH模型对已划分好的主体功能区从2009-2030年在不同情景下进行模拟,直观地反映出主体功能区划对土地利用变化的影响,据此对初次划分中由于条件模糊而难以判断的部分区域进行调整和优化,从而得到苏锡地区完整的主体功能区。结果表明该方法使主体功能区划具有直观的预测性和可调整性。该方法为合理实施主体功能区划提供技术性保障。
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grant number 41371176]the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[Grant number lzujbky_2017_it91]
文摘Urban planning has become a widely concern for minimizing the negative effects of urban expansion on terrestrial ecosystems. We developed an interdisciplinary modeling framework to evaluate the effectiveness and shortcomings of urban expansion management strategies. A three-step method was applied to Yinchuan Plain in the northwestern of China, including(1)analyzing the relationship between landscape pattern and ecosystem service values through mathematical statistics;(2) predicting landscape pattern and ecosystem services change under different scenarios based on cellular automaton model(SLEUTH-3r model); and(3) designing and validating optimized scenario through integrating historical analysis experiments and future multi-comparison suggestions. Results have suggested that landscape composition and configuration can significantly affect regional ecosystem service values, especially the connectivity and shape of landscape. Compact urban growth policy and medium environment protection policy are the appropriate setting for urban expansion plan. Optimization validation of the combined designed scenario implied the reliability of this method. Our results highlighted the significance of integrating application of landscape pattern analysis, ecosystem service value evaluation,model simulation and multi-scenario prediction in urban planning.
