Empirical research on the SMEs＇ credit-guarantee in China

After the authors' thorough study of the experiments of other countries and regions, it is posed that credit-guarantee is the key for solving the problem of the difficulties of SMEs' financing.Based on two surveys and interviews with 57 SMEs and some commercial banks' staff, this study on the practice and implement action of SMEs' credit-guarantee revealed some problems existing in the practical process. A series of policy suggestions are given for improving the SMEs' credit-guarantee in China.

Clues from networks:quantifying relational risk for credit risk evaluation of SMEs

Owing to information asymmetry,evaluating the credit risk of small-and mediumsized enterprises(SMEs)is difficult.While previous studies evaluating the credit risk of SMEs have mostly focused on intrinsic risk generated by SMEs,our study considers both intrinsic and relational risks generated by neighbor firms’publicly available risk events.We propose a framework for quantifying relational risk based on publicly available risk events for SMEs’credit risk evaluation.Our proposed framework quantifies relational risk by weighting the impact of publicly available risk events of each firm in an interfirm network—considering the impact of interfirm network type,risk event type,and time dependence of risk events—and combines the relational risk score with financial and demographic features to evaluate SMEs credit risk.Our results reveal that relational risk score significantly improves both discrimination and granting performances of credit risk evaluation of SMEs,providing valuable managerial and practical implications for financial institutions.

A multicriteria credit scoring model for SMEs using hybrid BWM and TOPSIS

Small-and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs)have a crucial influence on the economic development of every nation,but access to formal finance remains a barrier.Similarly,financial institutions encounter challenges in the assessment of SMEs’creditworthiness for the provision of financing.Financial institutions employ credit scoring models to identify potential borrowers and to determine loan pricing and collateral requirements.SMEs are perceived as unorganized in terms of financial data management compared to large corporations,making the assessment of credit risk based on inadequate financial data a cause for financial institutions’concern.The majority of existing models are data-driven and have faced criticism for failing to meet their assumptions.To address the issue of limited financial record keeping,this study developed and validated a system to predict SMEs’credit risk by introducing a multicriteria credit scoring model.The model was constructed using a hybrid best–worst method(BWM)and the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution(TOPSIS).Initially,the BWM determines the weight criteria,and TOPSIS is applied to score SMEs.A real-life case study was examined to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model,and a sensitivity analysis varying the weight of the criteria was performed to assess robustness against unpredictable financial situations.The findings indicated that SMEs’credit history,cash liquidity,and repayment period are the most crucial factors in lending,followed by return on capital,financial flexibility,and integrity.The proposed credit scoring model outperformed the existing commercial model in terms of its accuracy in predicting defaults.This model could assist financial institutions,providing a simple means for identifying potential SMEs to grant credit,and advance further research using alternative approaches.

县域SMEs融资存在的主要问题与对策研究——来自湖南省的调查

通过对湖南省195家县域经济体的SMEs进行问卷调查,发现县域SMEs普遍存在着融资意愿偏好于国有商业银行和信用社;融资途径和结构单一;非正规金融拓展空间受限;融资手续繁琐、抵押率过低等问题。然后,从加快担保体系建设;创新产品和业务开拓县域SMEs信贷市场;建立有效的直接融资体系等3个方面提出建议和措施,缓解了县域SMEs融资难的问题。

A credit risk assessment model based on SVM for small and medium enterprises in supply chain finance

Background:Supply chain finance(SCF)is a series of financial solutions provided by financial institutions to suppliers and customers facing demands on their working capital.As a systematic arrangement,SCF utilizes the authenticity of the trade between(SMEs)and their“counterparties”,which are usually the leading enterprises in their supply chains.Because in these arrangements the leading enterprises are the guarantors for the SMEs,the credit levels of such counterparties are becoming important factors of concern to financial institutions’risk management(i.e.,commercial banks offering SCF services).Thus,these institutions need to assess the credit risks of the SMEs from a view of the supply chain,rather than only assessing an SME’s repayment ability.The aim of this paper is to research credit risk assessment models for SCF.Methods:We establish an index system for credit risk assessment,adopting a view of the supply chain that considers the leading enterprise’s credit status and the relationships developed in the supply chain.Furthermore,We conducted two credit risk assessment models based on support vector machine(SVM)technique and BP neural network respectly.Results:(1)The SCF credit risk assessment index system designed in this paper,which contained supply chain leading enterprise’s credit status and cooperative relationships between SMEs and leading enterprises,can help banks to raise their accuracy on predicting a small and medium enterprise whether default or not.Therefore,more SMEs can obtain loans from banks through SCF.(2)The SCF credit risk assessment model based on SVM is of good generalization ability and robustness,which is more effective than BP neural network assessment model.Hence,Banks can raise the accuracy of credit risk assessment on SMEs by applying the SVM model,which can alleviate credit rationing on SMEs.Conclusions:(1)The SCF credit risk assessment index system can solve the problem of banks incorrectly labeling a creditworthy enterprise as a default enterprise,and thereby improve the credit rating status in the process of SME financing.(2)By analyzing and comparing the empirical results,we find that the SVM assessment model,on evaluating the SME credit risk,is more effective than the BP neural network assessment model.This new assessment model based on SVM can raise the accuracy of classification between good credit and bad credit SMEs.(3)Therefore,the SCF credit risk assessment index system and the assessment model based on SVM,is the optimal combination for commercial banks to use to evaluate SMEs’credit risk.

科技型中小企业融资效率提升路径研究

中小企业是我国经济发展、社会稳定、科技创新和吸收就业的中坚力量,而融资问题是中小企业发展面临的瓶颈。结合《信用信息共享清单》,基于模糊粗糙集,从企业实力、内部制度、经营能力、信用风险、政府政策及执行这5个方面,系统地构建科技型中小企业融资信用评价指标体系,并提出科技型中小企业供应链金融融资效率提升路径:企业自身应建立有效的内部制度,提升高管的经营能力,规避负面的信用风险,展现可信的企业实力,同时政府应加强政策及执行的引导及约束,更有效地为科技型中小企业提供融资服务。

推进我国高收益债券市场建设——基于国内高收益债券的实证分析

发展高收益债券市场是支持中小企业融资、缓和优质资产稀缺现状、优化我国金融市场风险层次结构不可或缺的策略路径。我国的高收益债券市场发展起步较晚,但近年在违约的常态化趋势下,伴随着国内高收益债券市场法规政策与基础设施的持续完善,正展现出稳步向前的发展态势。本文首先系统性回顾了成熟市场中高收益债券的定义与界定标准,厘清贴合我国实际的高收益债券定义方法;其次,系统梳理全球高收益债券市场演变历程,剖析发展我国高收益债券市场的必要性及紧迫性;而后,从技术角度出发,聚焦违约风险与回收价值这两大核心要素,利用分位数回归构建了一套高效的违约预警模型,探索并提出了适合我国高收益债的回收率评估方法;最后,基于我国高收益债券发展现状和最新监管趋势,结合海外成熟市场经验,提出了系列政策建议,为推进我国高收益债券市场高质量发展提供参考。

以信用服务实体经济改善中小企业现金流

近年来,受新冠肺炎疫情等综合因素影响,中小企业因为应收账款被拖欠而导致的现金流问题较为突出,不仅加剧了中小企业的经营困难,也一定程度上影响了经济大盘的稳定。拖欠中小企业账款问题由来已久且成因复杂,已成为经济治理中的顽疾,需要进行系统分析、综合施策。为改善中小企业现金流,一要完善法律法规和执行机制,将大企业拖欠中小企业账款问题纳入《反垄断法》和《反不正当竞争法》的规治范围,并适时出台专门的法律;二要充分发挥信用机制的基础性作用;三要加强数字技术应用,加快中小企业应收账款流转。

银行融资下中小企业保险购买决策研究

本文考虑了一个由制造商(中小型企业)、银行以及保险公司构成的供应链金融系统,并在传统银行融资、保费外生以及保费内生三种供应链金融模式下探讨了有限信贷与信用保险对制造商生产运营决策产生的影响。研究发现,信用保险能够有效缓解有限信贷对制造商的融资限制,并降低制造商所面临的市场风险。然而,信用保险模式相对于传统银行融资模式而言并非是完全占优的,例如,在保费外生情形下,过高的保险费率将迫使制造商放弃信用保险以避免高额保费成本。研究表明,相对于保费外生模式,保费内生模式下制造商高额度的投保行为更难以缓解市场风险,这给制造商带来的管理学启示是:制造商在保费内生模式下进行过高的信用保险投保意义较小,即制造商只需要将投保额度设定在能够使银行放宽贷款限额至满足最优生产产量的水平上。

区块链技术对中小企业信用融资策略的影响机制研究

以中小企业与金融机构作为金融系统的参与主体,将区块链技术引入在线信用评估服务,构建金融机构向中小企业信用融资的演化博弈模型,对比区块链技术引入前后系统均衡的变化,分析其作用机制,并进行数值仿真分析。研究发现:中小企业贷款过程中的风险主要包括伪造骗贷风险和业务风险,前者是决定金融机构是否同意贷款的关键因素;引入区块链可以减少融资管理和融资业务中的失误,降低中小企业经营性失信的概率;在线信用评估服务引入区块链后,违约成本成为中小企业进行策略选择的决定性因素,中小企业的违约成本大幅提高,从而有效降低金融机构的融资风险。

地方法人银行与小微企业的信贷博弈关系研究——基于演化博弈模型分析

本文基于演化博弈理论,研究地方法人银行与小微企业在动态博弈中的信贷策略选择问题,并分别从地方法人银行主动作为和小微企业积极合作两个方面推导出演化稳定策略。从研究结论可知:一是地方法人银行与小微企业之间呈现动态演化博弈关系,具有生成动态均衡下稳定策略的条件,进而在理论上支持信贷投放的政策资金激励机制的构建。二是从演化博弈分析来看,地方法人银行决策者主动作为所占比例趋于1和小微企业经营者积极合作所占比例趋于1,是二者博弈关系实现从非合作到合作的两个显著标识。三是合作博弈关系的实现具有现实可操作性,即通过加大地方法人银行决策者的绩效收入、政治激励、不作为免降职风险、减小不良风险减收,可以显著提高地方法人银行决策者实施主动作为策略的人数比例;同时,降低小微企业经营者的贷款利息、加大财政贴息、加大逃债惩罚,能够有效促进更多小微企业经营者采取积极合作策略。

基于BO-XGBoost与集成学习方法的供应链金融信用评价研究

针对供应链金融领域中小企业融资的信用风险控制问题,提出了一种在Bagging算法框架下结合贝叶斯优化和XGBoost算法的集成学习模型BO-XGBoost-Bagging(BXB)。首先,基于XGBoost特征重要度进行特征筛选,建立供应链金融信用评价指标体系。其次,通过贝叶斯优化获得XGBoost的最优超参数,并结合Bagging算法得到集成模型BXB。最后,在中小企业数据集上进行预测,通过实证研究验证信用评价模型的有效性。实证结果表明,BXB模型相比其他模型具有更好的预测效果,能够更加准确、全面地对中小企业的信用风险进行评估,更好地区分风险企业和正常企业,最大程度减少违约损失,在供应链金融信用评价方面有着较高的应用价值。

中小微企业的多目标信贷决策研究

本文主要研究中小微企业信贷决策问题,将中小微企业相关指标进行量化处理,建立一个多目标优化的信贷决策模型。多目标问题通常对不同目标加权转为单目标的方式处理,这种方法会使得Pareto分布不均匀。为解决这一缺陷,采用NBI方法重新构造信贷决策模型,进一步采用罚函数法对非线性不等式约束及非线性等式约束进行处理,并用改进的粒子群优化算法求解,该算法能显著提高计算效率。最后选取部分中小微企业数据,验证本文模型及算法的有效性,并给出银行信贷决策建议及合理的经济解释。

供应链金融下农业中小企业信用风险影响因素研究

基于2015—2021年的新三板农业中小企业数据,通过Logistic-ISM模型分析影响供应链金融下农业中小企业信用风险的因素及因素间的关联关系和层级结构。基于此,得出研究结论:供应链金融下农业中小企业信用风险的表层因素为员工总数、销售净利率、资产负债率、总资产增长率和净利润增长率,中层影响因素为流动资产周转率、应收账款周转天数,深层影响因素为速动比率。为降低农业中小企业所面临的供应链金融信用风险提出以下建议:要加强政府引领和政策指导,加强供应链条的稳定性,提高农业中小企业综合实力。

后疫情时代股份制银行支持中小企业融资破局的探索与实践——以Z银行为例

中小企业融资难是由来已久的世界性现象,新冠疫情爆发以来更是进一步加剧。本文简要分析了新冠疫情背景下国内中小企业的融资困境,从银行角度剖析了其主要原因,结合中小企业“短小频急”的融资特点,从发展战略与定位、产品与流程创新、考核政策激励以及融资成本降低等方面提出了解决措施建议,并以某股份制银行分行为例,介绍了其在探索发展小企业业务方面的相关实践与做法,以此为样本,为后新冠疫情时代银行支持中小企业融资破局提供实践参考。

银行治理、信贷配给与中小企业融资

中小企业贷款难问题是目前困扰这些企业迅速发展的重要因素,国内外对这一问题成因进行了诸多研究与分析。从我国银行治理结构特点的这一独特视角出发,结合信贷配给理论,对不同治理结构下银行信贷行为进行建模与比较分析发现,银行治理结构通过影响银行信贷选择行为,将会对信贷市场配给程度以及中小企业获得贷款的可能性产生重要影响。

中小企业贷款中反担保和比例担保机制分析

运用博弈论对银行、企业、担保机构三方的合作过程进行分析,并将其运用到我国信用担保的风险分担机制特别是比例担保和反担保机制的设计上。研究发现,比例担保是比全额担保更为有利的选择,在实际操作中担保机构应承担较大的比例;另外还论证了要求企业提供足额的反担保品能够有效防范其道德风险,长期合作的情况下对反担保品的要求可适当降低。依据理论分析成果,对于担保比例问题提出了政策建议。

中小企业信贷约束的成因与衡量:理论背景及分析框架

本文探讨了中小企业信贷约束及其影响因素、信贷约束衡量问题。首先,对形成中小企业信贷约束的两个方面即企业的信贷需求和银行的信贷供给行为,进行了理论背景及概念框架分析。其次,结合相关研究进展的评述,对影响中小企业信贷约束两个方面的因素,包括金融机构中小企业提供信贷服务供给的意愿和能力的影响因素、中小企业信贷获取能力的影响因素,进行了分析。然后,对信贷约束衡量方法及实证研究进展,进行了回顾与讨论。最后,讨论了理论分析、相关研究进展所具有的政策含义和研究含义。