科学数据银行(Science Data Bank)于2022年4月18日正式发布共享社会经济路径(SSPs)人口和经济格点化数据库(gridded datasets for population and economy under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)。该数据集是在多个国际和国内项目支持下...科学数据银行(Science Data Bank)于2022年4月18日正式发布共享社会经济路径(SSPs)人口和经济格点化数据库(gridded datasets for population and economy under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)。该数据集是在多个国际和国内项目支持下,经过十余年的研究和探索制作而成。数据集包含SSP1~SSP5情景下2020-2100年全球、“一带一路”沿线国家和中国城市和农村的人口和GDP逐年格点预估数据,分辨率为0.5°×0.5°。展开更多
Climate change has been known to cause variations in the geographically suitable areas for the schistosome-transmitting Oncomelania hupensis(O.hupensis).The spread of snails not only depends on the degree of warming b...Climate change has been known to cause variations in the geographically suitable areas for the schistosome-transmitting Oncomelania hupensis(O.hupensis).The spread of snails not only depends on the degree of warming but also on the socioeconomic development of the next few decades.Shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs)published by CMIP6 consider carbon emission pathways as well as influences of distinct types of social development and land use on the regional climate,providing the possibility to accurately evaluate the impact of socioeconomic development and climate variation on the spread of O.hupensis.This study employed SSP126,SSP245,SSP370,and SSP585 and the correlative approach to explore the impacts of climate change and socioeconomic development on the potential diffusion areas for O.hupensis in China.The results exhibited strong evidence that O.hupensis will spread in the north of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and disappear from a small part of its current southern habitat,whereas in Sichuan and Yunnan,O.hupensis may spread slightly to the southeast.The projection also demonstrated that fossil fuel-driven development(SSP585)will be more conducive to the spread of O.hupensis breeding sites in the 2030s,whereas the continuous increase in snail breeding habitats under the regional rivalry path(SSP370)may lead to great challenges in snail control in the long term(2020-2080).展开更多
Future electricity consumption may increase due to climate change,but the amplitude depends on the interaction between many uncertain mechanisms.Based on the linear model and policy model,the residential and commercia...Future electricity consumption may increase due to climate change,but the amplitude depends on the interaction between many uncertain mechanisms.Based on the linear model and policy model,the residential and commercial electricity consumption in Jiangsu province are projected under the shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs).The linear model considers climate and socioeconomic factors,and the policy model also takes policy factors into account.We find that the cooling degree days(CDD)coefficient is about 3 times of heating degree days(HDD),which reflects that the cooling demand is much larger than heating,and also shows in the projection.The results of the policy model are generally lower than the linear model,which is the impact of policy factors.For example,the SSP1 and SSP2 of the policy model are 320 TW h and 241.6 TW h lower than the linear model in 2100,respectively.At the end of the 21st century,the residential and commercial electricity consumption in Jiangsu province will reach 107.7–937.9 TW h per year,1.3–11.6 times of 2010.The SSP1 scenario under the policy model is based on feasible assumptions,and can be used as the target scenario for policymakers to establish energy intensity reduction targets.展开更多
文摘科学数据银行(Science Data Bank)于2022年4月18日正式发布共享社会经济路径(SSPs)人口和经济格点化数据库(gridded datasets for population and economy under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)。该数据集是在多个国际和国内项目支持下,经过十余年的研究和探索制作而成。数据集包含SSP1~SSP5情景下2020-2100年全球、“一带一路”沿线国家和中国城市和农村的人口和GDP逐年格点预估数据,分辨率为0.5°×0.5°。
基金supported by the Fifth Round of the Three-Year Public Health Action Plan of Shanghai(GWV-10.1-XK13)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.32161143036)the National Special Science and Technology Project for Major Infection Diseases of China(2016ZX10004222-004).
文摘Climate change has been known to cause variations in the geographically suitable areas for the schistosome-transmitting Oncomelania hupensis(O.hupensis).The spread of snails not only depends on the degree of warming but also on the socioeconomic development of the next few decades.Shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs)published by CMIP6 consider carbon emission pathways as well as influences of distinct types of social development and land use on the regional climate,providing the possibility to accurately evaluate the impact of socioeconomic development and climate variation on the spread of O.hupensis.This study employed SSP126,SSP245,SSP370,and SSP585 and the correlative approach to explore the impacts of climate change and socioeconomic development on the potential diffusion areas for O.hupensis in China.The results exhibited strong evidence that O.hupensis will spread in the north of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and disappear from a small part of its current southern habitat,whereas in Sichuan and Yunnan,O.hupensis may spread slightly to the southeast.The projection also demonstrated that fossil fuel-driven development(SSP585)will be more conducive to the spread of O.hupensis breeding sites in the 2030s,whereas the continuous increase in snail breeding habitats under the regional rivalry path(SSP370)may lead to great challenges in snail control in the long term(2020-2080).
基金This study was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFA0603804).
文摘Future electricity consumption may increase due to climate change,but the amplitude depends on the interaction between many uncertain mechanisms.Based on the linear model and policy model,the residential and commercial electricity consumption in Jiangsu province are projected under the shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs).The linear model considers climate and socioeconomic factors,and the policy model also takes policy factors into account.We find that the cooling degree days(CDD)coefficient is about 3 times of heating degree days(HDD),which reflects that the cooling demand is much larger than heating,and also shows in the projection.The results of the policy model are generally lower than the linear model,which is the impact of policy factors.For example,the SSP1 and SSP2 of the policy model are 320 TW h and 241.6 TW h lower than the linear model in 2100,respectively.At the end of the 21st century,the residential and commercial electricity consumption in Jiangsu province will reach 107.7–937.9 TW h per year,1.3–11.6 times of 2010.The SSP1 scenario under the policy model is based on feasible assumptions,and can be used as the target scenario for policymakers to establish energy intensity reduction targets.
