The Decay Process of an α-configuration Sunspot

The decay of sunspot plays a key role in magnetic flux transportation in solar active regions(ARs).To better understand the physical mechanism of the entire decay process of a sunspot,an α-configuration sunspot in AR NOAA 12411 was studied.Based on the continuum intensity images and vector magnetic field data with stray light correction from Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager,the area,vector magnetic field and magnetic flux in the umbra and penumbra are calculated with time,respectively.Our main results are as follows:(1) The decay curves of the sunspot area in its umbra,penumbra,and whole sunspot take the appearance of Gaussian profiles.The area decay rates of the umbra,penumbra and whole sunspot are-1.56 MSH day^(-1),-12.61 MSH day^(-1) and-14.04 MSH day^(-1),respectively;(2) With the decay of the sunspot,the total magnetic field strength and the vertical component of the penumbra increase,and the magnetic field of the penumbra becomes more vertical.Meanwhile,the total magnetic field strength and vertical magnetic field strength for the umbra decrease,and the inclination angle changes slightly with an average value of about 20°;(3) The magnetic flux decay curves of the sunspot in its umbra,penumbra,and whole sunspot exhibit quadratic patterns,their magnetic flux decay rates of the umbra,penumbra and whole sunspot are-9.84 × 10^(19)Mx day^(-1),-1.59 × 10^(20)Mx day^(-1) and -2.60 × 10^(20)Mx day^(-1),respectively.The observation suggests that the penumbra may be transformed into the umbra,resulting in the increase of the average vertical magnetic field strength and the reduction of the inclination angle in the penumbra during the decay of the sunspot.

Low Dimensional Chaos from the Group Sunspot Numbers

We examine the nonlinear dynamical properties of the monthly smoothed group sunspot number Rg and find that the solar activity underlying the time series of Rg is globally governed by a low-dimensional chaotic attractor. This finding is consistent with the nonlinear study results of the monthly Wolf sunspot numbers. We estimate the maximal Lyaponuv exponent （MLE） for the Rg series to be positive and to equal approximately 0.0187 ± 0.0023 （month^- 1）. Thus, the Lyaponuv time or predictability time of the chaotic motion is obtained to be about 4.46 ± 0.5 years, which is slightly different with the predictability time obtained from Rz. However, they both indicate that solar activity forecast should be done only for a short to medium term due to the intrinsic complexity of the time behavior concerned.

Signature of the 27-day variation in hemispheric sunspot activity and asymmetry during 2010-2015

In the present work,we study the time evolution,significance of the N-S asymmetry excesses presented as a function of the solar cycle and prominent rotational periods(~27 d)separately for the northern and southern hemispheres.We have investigated short-term variations of the hemispheric solar activity(sunspot numbers and sunspot areas)during the time period 2010-2015,which covers the ascending and the maximum phase of solar cycle 24.We have implemented the Lomb-Scargle periodogram and continuous wavelet transform power spectrum techniques to study the time evolution and dominant rotational periods separately for the northern and southern hemispheres,and whole solar disk.Our results showed that the northern hemisphere exhibited longer solar synodic periods than the southern hemisphere,indicating that the northern hemisphere has a lower rotation rate.Moreover,the northern hemisphere was found to be dominant before transferring to the southern hemisphere during mid-2013.Also,the sunspot areas clearly demonstrated a two-peak structure of solar activity in the northern and southern hemispheres respectively during 2012 and 2014.The statistical significance of the southern hemisphere affirmed enhanced excess during the maximum phase of solar cycle 24.

The Sunspots

In the present paper, the theoretical frame work of magneto hydrodynamics (MHD) is used to give a solution of the problem about the origin, persistence and disappearance of the Sunspots;as well as their tendency to appear as bipolar magnetic couples. According to the results obtained, a possible explanation about the change of polarity in both solar hemispheres is given. Heuristic but logical arguments about the periodicity of the phenomenon of the observed magnetic polarity and the tendency of couples of Sunspots to appear solely in certain latitudes that can be called tropical regions of the Sun are presented. Finally, an indirect experimental test is proposed to show the possible process that produces the polarity of the Sunspots in a given cycle, as well as the invertion of that polarity in the next solar cycle.

基于SunSPOT无线传感器网络的水轮机组机械振动监测系统的研究

利用SunSPOT无线传感器网络硬软件平台开发了一套水轮机组机械振动监测系统。该系统能够对水轮机组转动部件的振动信息进行实时的采集、传输和存储。水电厂的控制中心对这些数据进行分析、处理并且作出判断决策,以确保水轮机组安全运行和适时检修,降低事故的发生概率。讨论了SunSPOT无线传感器网络硬件结构,6LoWPAN无线通信协议,基于Java语言的NetBeans软件开发平台以及SPOT WORLD虚拟机。介绍了终端节点的数据采集和传输,基站的数据接收和储存所用到的接口和类的代码。

The causality between the rapid rotation of a sunspot and an X3.4 flare

Using multi-wavelength data of Hinode, the rapid rotation of a sunspot in active region NOAA 10930 is studied in detail. We found extraordinary counterclockwise rotation of the sunspot with positive polarity before an X3.4 flare. From a series of vector magnetograms, it is found that magnetic force lines are highly sheared along the neutral line accompanying the sunspot rotation. Furthermore, it is also found that sheared loops and an inverse S-shaped magnetic loop in the corona formed gradually after the sunspot rotation. The X3.4 flare can be reasonably regarded as a result of this movement. A detailed analysis provides evidence that sunspot rotation leads to magnetic field lines twisting in the photosphere. The twist is then transported into the corona and triggers flares.

Wavelet Analysis of Several Important Periodic Properties in the Relative Sunspot Numbers

We investigate the wavelet transform of yearly mean relative sunspot number series from 1700 to 2002. The curve of the global wavelet power spectrum peaks at 11-yr, 53-yr and 101-yr periods. The evolution of the amplitudes of the three periods is studied. The results show that around 1750 and 1800, the amplitude of the 53-yr period was much higher than that of the the 11-yr period, that the ca. 53-yr period was apparent only for the interval from 1725 to 1850, and was very low after 1850, that around 1750, 1800 and 1900, the amplitude of the 101-yr period was higher than that of the 11-yr period and that, from 1940 to 2000, the 11-yr period greatly dominates over the other two periods.

Long-Term Sunspot Number Prediction based on EMD Analysis and AR Model

The Empirical Mode Decomposition （EMD） and Auto-Regressive model （AR） are applied to a long-term prediction of sunspot numbers. With the sample data of sunspot numbers from 1848 to 1992, the method is evaluated by examining the measured data of the solar cycle 23 with the prediction： different time scale components are obtained by the EMD method and multi-step predicted values are combined to reconstruct the sunspot number time series. The result is remarkably good in comparison to the predictions made by the solar dynamo and precursor approaches for cycle 23. Sunspot numbers of the coming solar cycle 24 are obtained with the data from 1848 to 2007, the maximum amplitude of the next solar cycle is predicted to be about 112 in 2011-2012.

Studies of grand minima in sunspot cycles by using a flux transport solar dynamo model

We propose that grand minima in solar activity are caused by simultane- ous fluctuations in the meridional circulation and the Babcock-Leighton mechanism for the poloidal field generation in the flux transport dynamo model. We present the following results： （a） fluctuations in the meridional circulation are more effective in producing grand minima; （b） both sudden and gradual initiations of grand minima are possible; （c） distributions of durations and waiting times between grand minima seem to be exponential; （d） the coherence time of the meridional circulation has an effect on the number and the average duration of grand minima, with a coherence time of about 30 yr being consistent with observational data. We also study the occurrence of grand maxima and find that the distributions of durations and waiting times between grand maxima are also exponential, like the grand minima. Finally we address the question of whether the Babcock-Leighton mechanism can be operative during grand minima when there are no sunspots. We show that an a-effect restricted to the upper portions of the convection zone can pull the dynamo out of the grand minima and can match various observational requirements if the amplitude of this a-effect is suitably fine-tuned.

Local sunspot oscillations and umbral dots

Data analysis of sunspot oscillations based on a 6-hr SDO run of an observation showed that low frequency （0.2 〈ω 〈 1 mHz） oscillations are locally similar to three and five minute oscillations. The oscillations in the sunspot are concentrated in cells of a few arcsec, each of which has its own oscillation spectrum. The analysis of two scenarios for sunspot oscillations leads to a conclusion that local sunspot oscillations occur due to a subphotospheric resonator for slow MHD waves. Empirical models of a sunspot atmosphere and the theory of slow waves in thin magnetic flux tubes are applied to modeling the subphotospheric resonator. The spectrum of local oscillations consists of a great number of lines. This kind of spectrum can occur only if the subphotospheric resonator is a magnetic tube with a rather weak magnetic field. Magnetic tubes of this sort are umbral dots that appear due to the convective tongues in monolithic sunspots. The interrelation of local oscillations with umbral dots and wavefronts of traveling waves in sunspots is discussed.

Solar flare forecasting based on sequential sunspot data

It is widely believed that the evolution of solar active regions leads to solar flares. However, information about the evolution of solar active regions is not employed in most existing solar flare forecasting models. In the current work, a short- term solar flare forecasting model is proposed, in which sequential sunspot data, in- cluding three days of information about evolution from active regions, are taken as one of the basic predictors. The sunspot area, the Mclntosh classification, the mag- netic classification and the radio flux are extracted and converted to a numerical for- mat that is suitable for the current forecasting model. Based on these parameters, the sliding-window method is used to form the sequential data by adding three days of information about evolution. Then, multi-layer perceptron and learning vector quanti- zation are employed to predict the flare level within 48 h. Experimental results indicate that the performance of the proposed flare forecasting model works better than previ- ous models.

The Sunspot Cycle Leads to Origin and Epidemic Mechanism of Novel Coronavirus COVID-19

Listed examples of virus transmission epidemics that can be strongly transmitted through the air caused by sunspot change cycle, analyzed the mechanism that promotes the generation of new viruses. From the schematic diagram of the changes in the combined force of the hydrodynamic effect of the sun sweeping the earth and the sweeping force, we obtain the places that are prone to light vortices are 30 degrees north latitude and 30 degrees south latitude on the east coast of the mainland creatively. The curved continental lines are perfect, the range of the light vortex generated is more obviously, and the effect is stronger. And the curved continental lines are perfect, the range of the light vortex generated is more obviously, and the effect is stronger. It is inferred that the light vortex produces the special amplified energy so that can make the virus mutate to produce a new highly infectious novel coronavirus. The earliest known place and time of the novel coronavirus origin are consistent with the reasoning of the new theory. Because the radius and frequency of the light vortex are different, the resulting virus strains are also different. Moreover, the fatality rate in the light vortex area is much higher than that in the non-light vortex area, indicating that the virus’s toxicity and lethality are higher in the light vortex area, so it can explain why Russia, India, and countries in the African equatorial region mortality are much lower than the United States, Italy, Spain and Brazil. Finally, preventive and recommended measures are proposed.

A Statistical Study of Rapid Sunspot Structure Change Associated with Flares

We reported recently some rapid changes of sunspot structure in white-light （WL） associated with major flares. We extend the study to smaller events and present here results of a statistical study of this phenomenon. In total, we investigate 403 events from 1998 May 9 to 2004 July 17, including 40 X-class, 174 M-class, and 189 C-class flares. By monitoring the structure of the flaring active regions using the WL observations from the Transition Region and Coronal Explorer （TRACE）, we find that segments in the outer sunspot structure decayed rapidly right after many flares; and that, on the other hand, the central part of sunspots near the flare-associated magnetic neutral line became darkened. These rapid and permanent changes are evidenced in the time profiles of WL mean intensity and are not likely resulted from the flare emissions. Our study further shows that the outer sunspot structure decay as well as the central structure darkening are more likely to be detected in larger solar flares. For X-class flares, over 40% events show distinct sunspot structure change. For M- and C-class flares, this percentage drops to 17% and 10%, respectively. The results of this statistical study support our previously proposed reconnection picture, i.e., the flare-related magnetic fields evolve from a highly inclined to a more vertical configuration.

Phase analysis of sunspot group numbers on both solar hemispheres

Cross-correlation analysis and wavelet transform methods are proposed to investigate the phase relationship between the monthly sunspot group numbers in the solar northern and southern hemispheres. It is found that （1） the monthly sunspot group numbers in the northern hemisphere begin two months earlier than those in the southern one, which should lead to phase asynchrony between them but with a slight effect; （2） the Schwabe cycle length for the monthly sunspot group numbers in the two hemispheres obviously differs from each other, and the mean Schwabe cycle length of the monthly sunspot group numbers in the northern hemisphere is slightly larger than that in the southern one; （3） the monthly sunspot group numbers in the northern hemisphere precede those in the southern hemisphere during the years of about 1874- 1927, after which, the southern hemisphere leads the northern hemisphere in the years 1928-1964, and then the northern hemisphere leads in time till the present.

Propagating slow sausage waves in a sunspot observed by the New Vacuum Solar Telescope

A sunspot is an ideal waveguide for a variety of magnetohydrodynamic waves,which carry a significant amount of energy to the upper atmosphere and could be used as a tool to probe the magnetic and thermal structure of a sunspot.In this study,we used the New Vacuum Solar Telescope and took highresolution image sequences simultaneously in both Ti O(7058±10?A)and Hα(6562±2.5?A)bandpasses.We extracted the area and total emission intensity variations of sunspot umbra and analyzed the signals with synchrosqueezing transform.We found that the area and emission intensity varied with both three and five minute periodicity.Moreover,the area and intensity oscillated in phase with each other,this fact hold in both Ti O and Hαdata.We interpret this oscillatory signal as a propagating slow sausage wave.The propagation speed is estimated at about 8 km s^-1.We infer that this sunspot's umbra could have temperature as low as 2800–3500 K.

Predicting the 25th solar cycle using deep learning methods based on sunspot area data

It is a significant task to predict the solar activity for space weather and solar physics. All kinds of approaches have been used to forecast solar activities, and they have been applied to many areas such as the solar dynamo of simulation and space mission planning. In this paper, we employ the long-shortterm memory(LSTM) and neural network autoregression(NNAR) deep learning methods to predict the upcoming 25 th solar cycle using the sunspot area(SSA) data during the period of May 1874 to December2020. Our results show that the 25 th solar cycle will be 55% stronger than Solar Cycle 24 with a maximum sunspot area of 3115±401 and the cycle reaching its peak in October 2022 by using the LSTM method. It also shows that deep learning algorithms perform better than the other commonly used methods and have high application value.

Evolution of the Level of Sunspot Activity in Solar Cycles I. Evolution in the Descending Phase

Taking the 13-point smoothed monthly sunspot number,Ri, and the deviation of the 13 associated monthly sunspot numbers from the smoothed one, Di, as a number-pair describing the global level of sunspot activity, the evolution of the level is statistically studied for the period from the month which is just 48 months before the minimum to the minimum in the descending phase, using the observed data of Solar Cycles 10 to 22. Our results show （1） for 46 months （94%） of the studied 49 months it is found that for a given month, the distribution of the 13 pairs which come from the 13 solar cycles on a log Ri - Di plane may be fitted by a straight line with a correlation coefficient larger than the critical one at confidence level a = 5%, and for 36 months （73%） the fitting is even better, for a = 1%; （2） time variations of these two parameters and their correlations in the studied period can be described respectively by functions of time, whose main trends may be expressed by a linear or simple curvilinear function; （3） the evolutionary path of the level of sunspot activity may be represented by a logarithmic function as log/~ = 0.704 lnDi - 0.291.

The Formation and Evolution of the Sun and the Source of Star Energy as Well as the Sunspots and Flares of the Sun

Nebula theory is the most widely accepted hypothesis about the formation and evolution of the Solar System. This theoryholds that the Sun is formed from a collapsed gas cloud 4.57 billion years ago;when the core temperature of the gas cloud rises to 10million K, the thermonuclear reaction of hydrogen fusion into helium is ignited, then the Sun become a star;once the hydrogen in thecore is exhausted, the life of the star will end. But the limited hydrogen element obviously cannot satisfy such a long-termthermonuclear reaction, in order to sustain long-term thermonuclear reactions, a steady stream of fuel must be obtained from space.So the existing hypothesis about the formation and evolution of the Solar System has serious defects. Thus the author has studied theformation of the Moon, the Earth and the Sun, and discovered the formation of the Sun and the real source of star energy. The authorcould also explain many solar activity phenomena such as sunspots, flares, prominences, etc.

The relationships of solar flares with both sunspot and geomagnetic activity

The relationships between solar flare parameters （total importance, time duration, flare index, and flux） and sunspot activity （R z ） as well as those between geomagnetic activity （aa index） and the flare parameters can be well described by an integral response model with the response time scales of about 8 and 13 months, respectively. Compared with linear relationships, the correlation coefficients of the flare parameters with R z , of aa with the flare parameters, and of aa with R z based on this model have increased about 6%, 17%, and 47% on average, respectively. The time delays between the flare parameters with respect to R z , aa to the flare parameters, and aa to R z at their peaks in a solar cycle can be predicted in part by this model （82%, 47%, and 78%, respectively）. These results may be further improved when using a cosine filter with a wider window. It implies that solar flares are related to the accumulation of solar magnetic energy in the past through a time decay factor. The above results may help us to understand the mechanism of solar flares and to improve the prediction of the solar flares.

STUDY ON RELATIONS BETWEEN HEAVY-DISASTER-PERIOD OF FOREST FIRE ACTIVITY AND SUNSPOT ACTIVITY, SSTA

The HDPFF (heavy-disaster-period of forest fire) takes up 1 / 4-1 / 3 of all observation years, but the loss takes up 80-90% of all. The author studied the relations between forest fire activity in Heilongiiang Province from 1950 to 1989 and activity of sunspot, SSTA (sea surface temperature abnormality) of the North Pacific Ocean. The study discovered that : (1 )there was a negative correlation between forest fire condition in Heilongjiang Province and annual average of sunspot relative numbers, furthermore, the heavy-disaster-period was prone to occur in valley year and the next year; (2) SSTA in the North Pacific Ocean markedly influenced the forest fire activity and the level of its conditions in Heilongjiang province.