Future Changes in Various Cold Surges over China in CMIP6 Projections

Cold surges(CSs)often occur in the mid-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere and have enormous effects on socioeconomic development.We report that the occurrences of CSs and persistent CSs(PCSs)have rebounded since the 1990s,but the trends related to the frequencies of strong CSs(SCSs)and extreme CSs(ECSs)changed from increasing to decreasing after 2000.The highest-ranked model ensemble approach was used to project the occurrences of various CSs under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.The frequencies of the total CSs show overall decreasing trends.However,under the SSP1-2.6 scenario,slight increasing trends are noted for SCSs and ECSs in China.Atmospheric circulations that are characterized by an anomalous anticyclonic circulation with a significantly positive 500-hPa geopotential height(Z500)anomaly at high latitudes along with significant negative anomalies in China were favorable for cold air intrusions into China.In addition,the frequencies of all CS types under the SPP5-8.5 scenario greatly decreased in the long term(2071-2100),a finding which is thought to be related to negative SST anomalies in the central and western North Pacific,differences in sea level pressure(SLP)between high-and mid-latitude regions,and a weaker East Asian trough.In terms of ECSs,the decreasing trends observed during the historical period were maintained until 2024 under the SSP1-2.6 scenario.Compared to the SSP1-2.6 scenario,the Z500 pattern showed a trend of strengthened ridges over the Ural region and northern East Asia and weakened troughs over Siberia(60°-90°E)under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,contributing to the shift to increasing trends of ECSs after 2014.

The Genesis of Tropical Cyclone Bilis(2000) Associated with Cross-equatorial Surges

The purpose of this paper is to explore how a tropical cyclone forms from a pre-existing large-scale depression which has been observed and associated with cross-equatorial surges in the western North Pacific. Tropical cyclone Bilis(2000) was selected as the case to study.The research data used are from the results of the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model(MM5),which has successfully simulated the transformation of a pre-existing weak large-scale tropical depression into a strong tropical storm.The scale separation technique is used to separate the synoptic-scale and sub-synoptic-scale fields from the model output fields. The scale-separated fields show that the pre-existing synoptic-scale tropical depression and the subsynoptic scale tropical cyclone formed later were different scale systems from beginning to end.It is also shown that the pre-existing synoptic-scale tropical depression did not contract to become the tropical cyclone. A series of weak,sub-synoptic-scale low and high pressure systems appeared and disappeared in the synopticscale depression,with one of the low systems near the center of the synoptic-scale depression having deepened to become the tropical cyclone. The roles of the synoptic-scale flow and the sub-synoptic scale disturbances in the formation of the tropical cyclone are investigated by diagnoses of the scale-separated vertical vorticity equation.The results show that the early development of the sub-synoptic scale vortex was fundamentally dependent on the strengthening synoptic-scale environmental depression.The depression was strengthened by cross-equatorial surges,which increased the convergence of the synoptic-scale depression at low levels and triggered the formation of the tropical cyclone.

NUMERICAL STUDY OF THE INFLUENCE OF WAVES AND TIDE-SURGE INTERACTION ON TIDE-SURGES IN THE BOHAI SEA

The author’s combined numerical model consisting of a third generation shallow water wave model and a 3 D tide surge model with wave dependent surface wind stress were used to study the influence of waves on tide surge motion. For the typical weather case, in this study, the magnitude and mechanism of the influence of waves on tide surges in the Bohai Sea were revealed for the first time. The results showed that although consideration of the wave dependent surface wind stresses raise slightly the traditional surface wind stress, due to the accumulated effects, the computed results are improved on the whole. Storm level maximum modulation can reach 0.4 m. The results computed by the combined model agreed well with the measured data.

Statistical and causes analysis of storm surges along Tianjin coast during the past 20 years

Based on tidal data statistical analysis for 20 years of Tanggu Marine Environmental Monitoring Station from 1991 to 2010, we concluded that an average of nearly 10 days of 100 cm above water increase took place at Tianjin coast every year. The maximum high tide and average tide of Tianjin coast occurred in summer and autumn, and the maximum water increase also occurred in summer and autumn. Days with water increase more than 100 cm mostly occurred in spring, autumn and winter. Then we summarized the causes of coastal storm surge disaster in Tianjin based on astronomical tide factors, meteorological factors, sea level rise, land subsidence, and geographic factors, et al. Finally, we proposed storm surge disaster prevention measures.

Prediction of variations of storm surges heights in the estuary of the amur river arising from anthropogenic processes

Storm surges are one of the most dangerous natural phenomena for the estuary of the Amur River. The generation of surges in this area was investigated by means of a two-dimensional numerical model. The accuracy of the numerical calculation was verified by comparison of computed and observed sea levels. A series of numerical experiments was executed to estimate the influence of hypothetical anthropogenic processes on the variation of maximum storm surge heights.

A COMBINED MODEL OF WIND, WAVE, TIDE AND STORM SURGES

A combined numerical model of wind, wave, tide, and storm surges was built on the basis of the “wind field model in limited sea surface areas”. When used to forecast the sea surface wind, wave height and water level, it can describe them very well.

High Resolution Regional and Coastal Operational Storm Surges/Tide Forecasting System in Korea

This study was performed to compare storm surges/tide simulated by the regional and coastal storm surges/tide forecast system （RTSM （regional tide/storm surges model）, CTSM （coastal tide/storm surges model）） using two different inputs from weather models （RDAPS （Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System） and KWRF （Korea Weather and Research Forecasting）） during two typhoons that occurred between 2007 and 2008. Both the RDAPS and KWRF are the operational weather forecasting system in KMA （Korea Meteorological Administration）. The horizontal resolutions of RDAPS and KWRF are 30 and 10 km, respectively. The storm surges/tide was hind casted using sea wind and pressure fields of two Typhoons which was approaching Korean Peninsula. The CTSM using input from KWRF simulate very well the storm surges/tide pattern in the complex coastal areas. The result showed that the storm surges by the coastal storm surges/tide model with high resolution input was in well agreement with the observed sea level occurred by high tide and storm surges in the coastal areas.

Numerical simulations and comparative analysis for two types of storm surges in the Bohai Sea using a coupled atmosphere-ocean model

The Bohai Sea is extremely susceptible to storm surges induced by extratropical storms and tropical cyclones in nearly every season. In order to relieve the impacts of storm surge disasters on structures and human lives in coastal regions, it is very important to understand the occurring of the severe storm surges. The previous research is mostly restricted to a single type of storm surge caused by extratropical storm or tropical cyclone. In present paper, a coupled atmosphere-ocean model is developed to study the storm surges induced by two types of extreme weather conditions. Two special cases happened in the Bohai Sea are simulated successively. The wind intensity and minimum sea-level pressure derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model agree well with the observed data. The computed time series of water level obtained from the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) also are in good agreement with the tide gauge observations. The structures of the wind fields and average currents for two types of storm surges are analyzed and compared. The results of coupled model are compared with those from the uncoupled model. The case studies indicate that the wind field and structure of the ocean surface current have great differences between extratropical storm surge and typhoon storm surge. The magnitude of storm surge in the Bohai Sea is shown mainly determined by the ocean surface driving force, but greatly affected by the coastal geometry and bathymetry.

The 2020 Summer Floods and 2020/21 Winter Extreme Cold Surges in China and the 2020 Typhoon Season in the Western North Pacific

China experienced significant flooding in the summer of 2020 and multiple extreme cold surges during the winter of 2020/21.Additionally,the 2020 typhoon season had below average activity with especially quiet activity during the first half of the season in the western North Pacific(WNP).Sea surface temperature changes in the Pacific,Indian,and Atlantic Oceans all contributed to the heavy rainfall in China,but the Atlantic and Indian Oceans seem to have played dominant roles.Enhancement and movement of the Siberian High caused a wavier pattern in the jet stream that allowed cold polar air to reach southward,inducing cold surges in China.Large vertical wind shear and low humidity in the WNP were responsible for fewer typhoons in the first half of the typhoon season.Although it is known that global warming can increase the frequency of extreme weather and climate events,its influences on individual events still need to be quantified.Additionally,the extreme cold surge during 16–18 February 2021 in the United States shares similar mechanisms with the winter 2020/21 extreme cold surges in China.

Laboratory investigations of earthquake-and landslideinduced composite surges

Seismic surges and landslides are both major secondary mountain hazards during an earthquake. This paper investigates earthquake-and landslide-induced composite surges through largescale shaking table water tank model experiments. A series of tests were conducted for various initial water depths, peak ground accelerations, slide impact velocities, and slide volumes. Based on the results of the tests, the effects of these parameters on the maximum wave heights of the earthquake-and landslide-induced composite surges were analyzed. An amplification coefficient of seismic surges was defined, and the prediction equation for the amplification coefficient was developed through nondimensional multiple linear regression analysis. Then, an empirical equation for the maximum wave heights of the composite surges was developed based on the amplification coefficient and Demirel's method. This equation provides a calculation method for earthquake-and landslide-induced composite surge waves.

NONLINEAR INTERACTION BETWEEN ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND STORM SURGES AT WUSONG TIDAL STATION

There are obvious periodic oscillations in the observations of storm surges in the East China Sea . The storm surges are not only controlled by the wind stresses and isolated long wave caused by typhoons but also affected by the interaction between astronomical tides and storm surges . In the present paper we simulate the interaction between tides and storm surges by using a two dimensional numerical model. In our numerical experiments we use the data of the storm surge induced by Typhoon 8114 . The calculations tally with the measured data well. The results indicate that the periodic osculations occurring in the elevations of the surge are mainly caused by the interaction between the tide and the storm surge . The numerical experiments also indicate that the forecasting precision may be notably improved if the nonlinear interaction between tides and storm surges is taken into account.

A Numerical Study of the Effects of Coastal Geometry in the Bohai Sea on Storm Surges Induced by Cold-Air Outbreaks

Strom surges are not only determined by the atmospheric forcing,but also influenced by the coastal geometry and bathymetry.The Bohai Sea,as one of China’s marginal seas,is seriously harmed by storm surges,especially those caused by cold-air outbreaks.As the coastline of the Bohai Sea has changed evidently these years,storm surges may have new characteristics due to the changes in the local geometry.This paper aims to find out these new characteristics by primarily investigating the influence of the changes in the local geometry on storm surges with numerical methods.20 scenarios were constructed based on the track and inten-sity of the cold-air outbreaks to describe the actual situation.By analyzing the model results of the control scenarios,it is found that the main changes of the maximum surge elevation occur in the Bohai Bay and the Laizhou Bay.At the top of the Bohai Bay,the maximum surge elevation is obviously decreased,while in the Laizhou Bay,it is enhanced by the growing Yellow River Delta.This,however,does not suggest that the storm surges in the Laizhou Bay become more serious.A comparison of the risk assessment of storm surges in the Tanggu,Huanghua and Yangjiaogou regions shows that the risk of storm surges in these coastal areas is lightened by the evolvement of the coastal geometry.Particularly near Yangjiaogou,though the maximum surge elevation becomes higher to subject more areas to risk,the risk is still reduced by the evolvement of the Yellow River Delta.

Structures and Characteristics of the Windy Atmospheric Boundary Layer in the South China Sea Region during Cold Surges

An observational analysis of the structures and characteristics of a windy atmospheric boundary layer during a cold air outbreak in the South China Sea region is reported in this paper. It is found that the main structures and characteristics are the same as during strong wind episodes with cold air outbreaks on land. The high frequency turbulent fluctuations （period 〈 1 min） are nearly random and isotropic with weak coherency, but the gusty wind disturbances （1 rain〈period 〈 10 min） are anisotropic with rather strong coherency. However, in the windy atmospheric boundary layer at sea, compared with that over land, there are some pronounced differences： （1） the average horizontal speed is almost independent of height, and the vertical velocity is positive in the lower marine atmospheric boundary layer; （2） the vertical flux of horizontal momentum is nearly independent of height in the low layer indicating the existence of a constant flux layer, unlike during strong wind over the land surface; （3） the kinetic energy and friction velocity of turbulent fluctuations are larger than those of gusty disturbances; （4） due to the independence of horizontal speed to height, the horizontal speed itself （not its vertical gradient used over the land surface） can be used as the key parameter to parameterize the turbulent and gusty characteristics with high accuracy.

Effects of hurricane forward speed and approach angle on storm surges: an idealized numerical experiment

The effects of hurricane forward speed(V)and approach angle(θ)on storm surge are important and a systematic investigation covering possible and continuous ranges of these parameters has not been done before.Here we present such a study with a numerical experiment using the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model(FVCOM).The hurricane track is simplified as a straight line,such that V andθfully define the motion of the hurricane.The maximum surge is contributed by both free waves and a forced storm surge wave moving with the hurricane.Among the free waves,Kelvin-type waves can only propagate in the down-coast direction.Simulations show that those waves can only have a significant positive storm surge when the hurricane velocity has a down-coast component.The optimal values of V andθthat maximize the storm surge in an idealized semi-circular ocean basin are functions of the bathymetry.For a constant bathymetry,the maximum surge occurs when the hurricane approaches the coast from the normal direction when the free wave generation is minimal;for a stepped bathymetry,the maximum surge occurs at a certain acute approach angle which maximizes the duration of persistent wind forcing;a step-like bathymetry with a sloped shelf is similar to the stepped bathymetry,with the added possibility of landfall resonance when the free and forced waves are moving at about the same velocity.For other cases,the storm surge is smaller,given other parameters(hurricane size,maximum wind speed,etc.)unchanged.

A Preliminary Study on the Intensity of Cold Wave Storm Surges of Laizhou Bay

Abstract Dike failure and marine losses are quite prominent in Laizhou Bay during the period of cold wave storm surges because of its open coastline to the north and fiat topography. In order to evaluate the intensity of c01d wave storm surge, the hindcast of ma- rine elements induced by cold waves in Laizhou Bay from 1985 to 2004 is conducted using a cold wave storm surge-wave coupled model and the joint return period of extreme water level, concomitant wave height, and concomitant wind speed are calculated. A new criterion of cold wave storm surge intensity based on such studies is developed. Considering the frequency of cold wave, this paper introduces a Poisson trivariate compound reconstruction model to calculate the joint return period, which is closer to the reality. By using the newly defined cold wave storm surge intensity, the ＇cold wave grade＇ in meteorology can better describe the severity of cold wave storm surges and the warning level is well corresponding to different intensities of cold wave storm surges. Therefore, it provides a proper guidance to marine hydrological analysis, disaster prevention and marine structure design in Laizhou Bay.

Numerical study on the spatially varying drag coefficient in simulation of storm surges employing the adjoint method

From the simulation of storm surges resulting from Typhoons 7203 and 8509 in the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea and East China Sea, water level data at tide stations are assimilated into a two-dimensional storm surge model, to study the spatially varying drag coefficient (DC) by employing the adjoint method. In this study, the DC at some grid points is uniformly selected as the independent DC, while the DC at other grid points is obtained through linear interpolation of the independent DC. The DC at independent points is optimized by employing the adjoint assimilation method, and global optimization is achieved by optimizing the independent DC. To demonstrate the method's performance, three comparative experiments are carried out. In the first experiment, the DC is treated as a constant. In the second and third experiments, the DC is derived using an empirical formula. Comparing the experimental results, it is found that the simulation accuracy for both Typhoons 7203 and 8509 increases greatly when optimizing the independent DC. However, the number of independent points makes no great difference to the precision of simulation. Moreover, the DC inverted from Typhoons 7203 and 8509 differs in some sea areas because of the different typhoon tracks. However, the spatial distribution of the inverted DC, for both Typhoons 7203 and 8509, demonstrates a clear effect of the DC on the storm surge modeling near the coastal areas where the DC is highest or lowest.

Effects of winds,tides and storm surges on ocean surface waves in the Sea of Japan

Ocean surface waves are strongly forced by high wind conditions associated with winter storms in the Sea of Japan. They are also modulated by tides and storm surges. The effects of the variability in surface wind forcing, tides and storm surges on the waves are investigated using a wave model, a high-resolution atmospheric mesoscale model and a hydrodynamic ocean circulation model. Five month-long wave model simulations are inducted to examine the sensitivity of ocean waves to various wind forcing fields, tides and storm surges during January 1997. Compared with observed mean wave parameters, results indicate that the high frequency variability in the surface wind filed has very great effect on wave simulation. Tides and storm surges have a significant impact on the waves in nearshores of the Tsushima-kaihyS, but not for other regions in the Sea of Japan. High spatial and temporal resolution and good quality surface wind products will be crucial for the prediction of surface waves in the JES and other marginal seas, especially near the coastal regions.

Numerical Simulation and Analysis of Storm Surges Under Different Extreme Weather Event and Typhoon Experiments in the South Yellow Sea

In this study,a coupled tide-surge-wave model was developed and applied to the South Yellow Sea.The coupled model simulated the evolution of storm surges and waves caused by extreme weather events,such as tropical cyclones,cold waves,extratropical cyclones coupled with a cold wave,and tropical cyclones coupled with a cold wave.The modeled surge level and significant wave height matched the measured data well.Simulation results of the typhoon with different intensities revealed that the radius to the maximum wind speed of a typhoon with 1.5 times wind speed decreased,and its influence range was farther away from the Jiangsu coastal region;moreover,the impact on surge levels was weakened.Thereafter,eight hypothetical typhoons based on Typhoon Chan-hom were designed to investigate the effects of varying typhoon tracks on the extreme value and spatial distribution of storm surges in the offshore area of Jiangsu Province.The typhoon along path 2 mainly affected the Rudong coast,and the topography of the Rudong coast was conducive to the increase in surge level.Therefore,the typhoon along path 2 induced the largest surge level,which reached up to 2.91 m in the radial sand ridge area.The maximum surge levels in the Haizhou Bay area and the middle straight coastline area reached up to 2.37 and 2.08 m,respectively.In terms of typhoons active in offshore areas,the radial sand ridge area was most likely to be threatened by typhoon-induced storm surges.