Mathematical models of the quantity and quality of water in hydrographic basins enable simulation of a wide variety of processes, including the production of water and sediments, and the dynamics of point and nonpoint...Mathematical models of the quantity and quality of water in hydrographic basins enable simulation of a wide variety of processes, including the production of water and sediments, and the dynamics of point and nonpoint sources of pollution. These models have become increasingly complex, requiring large amounts of input data, which can increase the uncertainty of the results of simulations. For this reason, it is essential to perform calibration and validation procedures. The objective of this work was to conduct sensitivity analysis and calibration of a distributed hydrological model (SWAT) applied to the flows of water in the watershed of the Poxim River. Satisfactory performance of the model was indicated by the values obtained for the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (0.77), the percent bias (5.05), the root mean square error (0.48), and the ratio of the RMSE to the standard deviation of the observations (RSR) (0.49). The set of parameters identified here could be used for the simulation and evaluation of other scenarios.展开更多
地理信息系统（GIS）支持下的SWAT（Soil and Water Assessment Tool）分布式水文模型以流域离散化空间参数来描述流域水文变化特性,从物理意义上表达流域内的水文过程,但众多不确定的参数影响了模型的应用效果,因此有必要对参数进行敏...地理信息系统（GIS）支持下的SWAT（Soil and Water Assessment Tool）分布式水文模型以流域离散化空间参数来描述流域水文变化特性,从物理意义上表达流域内的水文过程,但众多不确定的参数影响了模型的应用效果,因此有必要对参数进行敏感性分析。将SWAT模型应用到祁连山黑河上游山区流域,进行了11年（1990-2000年）逐日径流模拟,通过一个简便的敏感性分析方法,将模型影响水文过程的参数分成4类敏感级别,最后确定模型的参数。在11年的逐日模拟中,1990-1995年为参数敏感性分析期和模型率定期,1996-2000年为模型的检验期,模拟结果显示,在黑河山区流域,丰水年逐日出山径流的模型效率系数R2达到0.8以上,平水年和枯水年R2在0.51-0.79之间。展开更多
为了分析长江源区巴塘河流域气候变化与径流的水文响应关系,根据研究区的DEM(digital elevation model)、气象数据、土壤类型和土地利用数据,建立了SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)模型,并选用SUFI-2(Sequential Uncertainty Fitt...为了分析长江源区巴塘河流域气候变化与径流的水文响应关系,根据研究区的DEM(digital elevation model)、气象数据、土壤类型和土地利用数据,建立了SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)模型,并选用SUFI-2(Sequential Uncertainty Fitting)算法进行SWAT模型参数的矫正及验证。模拟结果表明:矫正期与验证期的模拟径流量与实测流量的峰值出现月份基本一致,均在巴塘河流域的6—9月份,最小值出现月份均在巴塘河流域的1,2月份,地下水延滞参数为影响模拟结果的首要因子。矫正期与验证期的模拟径流量与实测径流量之间的确定性系数及效率系数都高于0.8,该模型对巴塘流域的模拟效果良好,但受冻土影响较大。通过径流模拟及影响因子分析,可为巴塘河流域的山洪泥石流灾害预测、风险分析与管理提供参考。展开更多
文摘Mathematical models of the quantity and quality of water in hydrographic basins enable simulation of a wide variety of processes, including the production of water and sediments, and the dynamics of point and nonpoint sources of pollution. These models have become increasingly complex, requiring large amounts of input data, which can increase the uncertainty of the results of simulations. For this reason, it is essential to perform calibration and validation procedures. The objective of this work was to conduct sensitivity analysis and calibration of a distributed hydrological model (SWAT) applied to the flows of water in the watershed of the Poxim River. Satisfactory performance of the model was indicated by the values obtained for the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (0.77), the percent bias (5.05), the root mean square error (0.48), and the ratio of the RMSE to the standard deviation of the observations (RSR) (0.49). The set of parameters identified here could be used for the simulation and evaluation of other scenarios.
文摘地理信息系统（GIS）支持下的SWAT（Soil and Water Assessment Tool）分布式水文模型以流域离散化空间参数来描述流域水文变化特性,从物理意义上表达流域内的水文过程,但众多不确定的参数影响了模型的应用效果,因此有必要对参数进行敏感性分析。将SWAT模型应用到祁连山黑河上游山区流域,进行了11年（1990-2000年）逐日径流模拟,通过一个简便的敏感性分析方法,将模型影响水文过程的参数分成4类敏感级别,最后确定模型的参数。在11年的逐日模拟中,1990-1995年为参数敏感性分析期和模型率定期,1996-2000年为模型的检验期,模拟结果显示,在黑河山区流域,丰水年逐日出山径流的模型效率系数R2达到0.8以上,平水年和枯水年R2在0.51-0.79之间。
文摘为了分析长江源区巴塘河流域气候变化与径流的水文响应关系,根据研究区的DEM(digital elevation model)、气象数据、土壤类型和土地利用数据,建立了SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)模型,并选用SUFI-2(Sequential Uncertainty Fitting)算法进行SWAT模型参数的矫正及验证。模拟结果表明:矫正期与验证期的模拟径流量与实测流量的峰值出现月份基本一致,均在巴塘河流域的6—9月份,最小值出现月份均在巴塘河流域的1,2月份,地下水延滞参数为影响模拟结果的首要因子。矫正期与验证期的模拟径流量与实测径流量之间的确定性系数及效率系数都高于0.8,该模型对巴塘流域的模拟效果良好,但受冻土影响较大。通过径流模拟及影响因子分析,可为巴塘河流域的山洪泥石流灾害预测、风险分析与管理提供参考。
