The Southwest Indian Ocean Thermocline Dome in CMIP5 Models:Historical Simulation and Future Projection

Using 20 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5）, the simulation of the Southwest Indian Ocean （SWIO） thermocline dome is evaluated and its role in shaping the Indian Ocean Basin （IOB） mode following E1 Nifio investigated. In most of the CMIP5 models, due to an easterly wind bias along the equator, the simulated SWIO thermocline is too deep, which could further influence the amplitude of the interannual IOB mode. A model with a shallow （deep） thermocline dome tends to simulate a strong （weak） IOB mode, including key attributes such as the SWIO SST warming, antisymmetric pattern during boreal spring, and second North Indian Ocean warming during boreal summer. Under global warming, the thermocline dome deepens with the easterly wind trend along the equator in most of the models. However, the IOB amplitude does not follow such a change of the SWIO thermocline among the models; rather, it follows future changes in both ENSO forcing and local convection feedback, suggesting a decreasing effect of the deepening SWIO thermocline dome on the change in the IOB mode in the future.

Sustained Decadal Warming Phase in the Southwestern Indian Ocean since the Mid-1990s

Regardless of the slowdown in global warming during the hiatus period, sea surface temperatures(SSTs) in the southwestern Indian Ocean(SWIO) have experienced sustained decadal warming for more than two decades since the mid-1990 s. The SWIO SSTs warmed steadily during 1996–2016, causing a warming hot spot of 0.4 K decade-1 in a large region east of Madagascar. An upper-layer heat budget analysis indicated that heat advection by ocean currents was the greatest contributor to the warming of the SWIO SSTs. The existence of an anticyclonic geostrophic current along the western boundary of the SWIO tended to maintain such warming by transporting warmer water from the west into the SWIO region. In addition, net positive heat transport by ocean currents also occurred at the southern boundary of the SWIO as the climatological northward transport of cold water from the Southern Ocean weakened. This reduction in northward ocean currents at the surface was caused by local wind stress changes, leading to a southward Ekman current. Below the surface, an anticyclonic geostrophic current pattern existed around the warming center near the southeastern SWIO, which reduced the transport of cold waters from the Southern Ocean and warmed the SWIO. These processes near the two boundaries formed a self-sustaining positive feedback mechanism and favored the maintenance of sustained warming in the SWIO. More attention is needed to analyze the sustained long-lasting warming in the SWIO, as it is a unique phenomenon occurring under the background of the ongoing global warming.