Saddlepoint Approximation Method in Reliability Analysis:A Review

The escalating need for reliability analysis(RA)and reliability-based design optimization(RBDO)within engineering challenges has prompted the advancement of saddlepoint approximationmethods(SAM)tailored for such problems.This article offers a detailed overview of the general SAM and summarizes the method characteristics first.Subsequently,recent enhancements in the SAM theoretical framework are assessed.Notably,the mean value first-order saddlepoint approximation(MVFOSA)bears resemblance to the conceptual framework of the mean value second-order saddlepoint approximation(MVSOSA);the latter serves as an auxiliary approach to the former.Their distinction is rooted in the varying expansion orders of the performance function as implemented through the Taylor method.Both the saddlepoint approximation and third-moment(SATM)and saddlepoint approximation and fourth-moment(SAFM)strategies model the cumulant generating function(CGF)by leveraging the initial random moments of the function.Although their optimal application domains diverge,each method consistently ensures superior relative precision,enhanced efficiency,and sustained stability.Every method elucidated is exemplified through pertinent RA or RBDO scenarios.By juxtaposing them against alternative strategies,the efficacy of these methods becomes evident.The outcomes proffered are subsequently employed as a foundation for contemplating prospective theoretical and practical research endeavors concerning SAMs.The main purpose and value of this article is to review the SAM and reliability-related issues,which can provide some reference and inspiration for future research scholars in this field.

On the Spectrum of Asymptotic Expansions for an Asymptotic Normal Sequence

We present a family of formal expansions for the density function of a general one-dimensional asymptotic normal sequence Xn. Members of the family are indexed by a parameter τ with an interval domain which we refer to as the spectrum of the family. The spectrum provides a unified view of known expansions for the density of Xn. It also provides a means to explore for new expansions. We discuss such applications of the spectrum through that of a sample mean and a standardized mean. We also discuss a related expansion for the cumulative distribution function of Xn.

RBMDO Using Gaussian Mixture Model-Based Second-Order Mean-Value Saddlepoint Approximation

Actual engineering systems will be inevitably affected by uncertain factors.Thus,the Reliability-Based Multidisciplinary Design Optimization(RBMDO)has become a hotspot for recent research and application in complex engineering system design.The Second-Order/First-Order Mean-Value Saddlepoint Approximate(SOMVSA/-FOMVSA)are two popular reliability analysis strategies that are widely used in RBMDO.However,the SOMVSA method can only be used efficiently when the distribution of input variables is Gaussian distribution,which significantly limits its application.In this study,the Gaussian Mixture Model-based Second-Order Mean-Value Saddlepoint Approximation(GMM-SOMVSA)is introduced to tackle above problem.It is integrated with the Collaborative Optimization(CO)method to solve RBMDO problems.Furthermore,the formula and procedure of RBMDO using GMM-SOMVSA-Based CO(GMM-SOMVSA-CO)are proposed.Finally,an engineering example is given to show the application of the GMM-SOMVSA-CO method.

Application of saddlepoint approximation in reliability analysis of dynamic systems

The application of the saddlepoint approximation to reliability analysis of dynamic systems is investigated. The failure event in reliability problems is formulated as the exceedance of a single performance variable over a prescribed threshold level. The saddlepoint approximation technique provides a choice to estimate the cumulative distribution function （CDF） of the performance variable. The failure probability is obtained as the value of the complement CDF at a specified threshold. The method requires computing the saddlepoint from a simple algebraic equation that depends on the cumulant generating function （CGF） of the performance variable. A method for calculating the saddlepoint using random samples of the performance variable is presented. The applicable region of the saddlepoint approximation is discussed in detail. A 10-story shear building model with white noise excitation illustrates the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed methodology.

期望损失(ES)的几种逼近法比较

基于Edgeworth和Saddlepoint展开,提出了对小样本情形下的ES计算问题的近似方法,给出了相应的逼近表达式,并将2种方法所得结果与基于Bootstrap方法的计算结果进行比较和分析。Monte Carlo模拟结果表明:Edgeworth展开法计算ES的值比Saddlepoint展开法更为精确。

An Uncertainty Analysis and Reliability-Based Multidisciplinary Design Optimization Method Using Fourth-Moment Saddlepoint Approximation

In uncertainty analysis and reliability-based multidisciplinary design and optimization(RBMDO)of engineering structures,the saddlepoint approximation(SA)method can be utilized to enhance the accuracy and efficiency of reliability evaluation.However,the random variables involved in SA should be easy to handle.Additionally,the corresponding saddlepoint equation should not be complicated.Both of them limit the application of SA for engineering problems.The moment method can construct an approximate cumulative distribution function of the performance function based on the first few statistical moments.However,the traditional moment matching method is not very accurate generally.In order to take advantage of the SA method and the moment matching method to enhance the efficiency of design and optimization,a fourth-moment saddlepoint approximation(FMSA)method is introduced into RBMDO.In FMSA,the approximate cumulative generating functions are constructed based on the first four moments of the limit state function.The probability density function and cumulative distribution function are estimated based on this approximate cumulative generating function.Furthermore,the FMSA method is introduced and combined into RBMDO within the framework of sequence optimization and reliability assessment,which is based on the performance measure approach strategy.Two engineering examples are introduced to verify the effectiveness of proposed method.

The Multivariate Saddlepoint Approximation to the Distribution of Estimators： A General Approach

We develop the theory of multivariate saddlepoint approximations. Our treatment differs from the one in Barndorff-Nielsen and Cox （1979, equation （4.7）） in two aspects： 1） our results are satisfied for random vectors that are not necessarily sums of independent and identically distributed random vectors, and 2） we consider that the sample is taken from any distribution, not necessarily a member of the exponential family of densities. We also show the relationship with the corresponding multivariate Edgeworth approximations whose general treatment was developed by Durbin in 1980, emphasizing that the basic assumptions that support the validity of both approaches are essentially similar.

Inference in the Presence of Likelihood Monotonicity for Polytomous and Logistic Regression

This paper addresses the problem of inference for a multinomial regression model in the presence of likelihood monotonicity. This paper proposes translating the multinomial regression problem into a conditional logistic regression problem, using existing techniques to reduce this conditional logistic regression problem to one with fewer observations and fewer covariates, such that probabilities for the canonical sufficient statistic of interest, conditional on remaining sufficient statistics, are identical, and translating this conditional logistic regression problem back to the multinomial regression setting. This reduced multinomial regression problem does not exhibit monotonicity of its likelihood, and so conventional asymptotic techniques can be used.

Saddlepoint approximation based structural reliability analysis with non-normal random variables

The saddlepoint approximation (SA) can directly estimate the probability distribution of linear performance function in non-normal variables space. Based on the property of SA, three SA based methods are developed for the structural system reliability analysis. The first method is SA based reliability bounds theory (RBT), in which SA is employed to estimate failure probability and equivalent normal reliability index for each failure mode firstly, and then RBT is employed to obtain the upper and the lower bounds of system failure probability. The second method is SA based Nataf approximation, in which SA is used to estimate the probability density function (PDF) and cumulative distribution function (CDF) for the approximately linearized performance function of each failure mode. After the PDF of each failure mode and the correlation coefficients among approximately linearized performance functions are estimated, Nataf distribution is employed to approximate the joint PDF of multiple structural system performance functions, and then the system failure probability can be estimated directly by numerical simulation using the joint PDF. The third method is SA based line sampling (LS). The standardization transformation is needed to eliminate the dimensions of variables firstly in this case. Then LS method can express the system failure probability as an arithmetic average of a set of failure probabilities of the linear performance functions, and the probabilities of the linear performance functions can be estimated by the SA in the non-normal variables space. By comparing basic concepts, implementations and results of illustrations, the following conclusions can be drawn: (1) The first method can only obtain the bounds of system failure probability and it is only acceptable for the linear limit state function; (2) the second method can give the estimation of system failure probability, and its error mostly results from the approximation of Nataf distribution for the joint PDF of the structural system performance functions and the linearization of the performance functions; (3) the SA based LS method can obtain the estimator of system failure probability, which converges to the actual value along with the increase of sample size. The SA based LS method considers the influence of nonlinearity of limit state function on the failure probability, and it is acceptable for the structural system both with a single failure mode and with multiple failure modes, therefore it has the widest applicability.

Saddlepoint approximation based line sampling method for uncertainty propagation in fuzzy and random reliability analysis

For structural system with random basic variables as well as fuzzy basic variables,uncertain propagation from two kinds of basic variables to the response of the structure is investigated.A novel algorithm for obtaining membership function of fuzzy reliability is presented with saddlepoint approximation(SA)based line sampling method.In the presented method,the value domain of the fuzzy basic variables under the given membership level is firstly obtained according to their membership functions.In the value domain of the fuzzy basic variables corresponding to the given membership level,bounds of reliability of the structure response satisfying safety requirement are obtained by employing the SA based line sampling method in the reduced space of the random variables.In this way the uncertainty of the basic variables is propagated to the safety measurement of the structure,and the fuzzy membership function of the reliability is obtained.Compared to the direct Monte Carlo method for propagating the uncertainties of the fuzzy and random basic variables,the presented method can considerably improve computational efficiency with acceptable precision.The presented method has wider applicability compared to the transformation method,because it doesn't limit the distribution of the variable and the explicit expression of performance function, and no approximation is made for the performance function during the computing process.Additionally,the presented method can easily treat the performance function with cross items of the fuzzy variable and the random variable,which isn't suitably approximated by the existing transformation methods.Several examples are provided to illustrate the advantages of the presented method.

Saddle Point Criteria in Nonsmooth Semi-Infinite Minimax Fractional Programming Problems

This paper considers a nonsmooth semi-infinite minimax fractional programming problem（SIMFP） involving locally Lipschitz invex functions. The authors establish necessary optimality conditions for SIMFP. The authors establish the relationship between an optimal solution of SIMFP and saddle point of scalar Lagrange function for SIMFP. Further, the authors study saddle point criteria of a vector Lagrange function defined for SIMFP.

Saddlepoint approximations for studentized compound Poisson sums with no moment conditions in audit sampling

Saddlepoint approximations for the studentized compound Poisson sums with no moment conditions in audit sampling are derived. This result not only provides a very accurate approximation for studentized compound Poisson sums, but also can be applied much more widely in statistical inference of the error amount in an audit population of accounts to check the validity of financial statements of a firm. Some numerical illustrations and comparison with the normal approximation method are presented.

Detecting Change-Point via Saddlepoint Approximations

It’s well-known that change-point problem is an important part of model statistical analysis. Most of the existing methods are not robust to criteria of the evaluation of change-point problem.In this article, we consider "mean-shift" problem in change-point studies. A quantile test of single quantile is proposed based on saddlepoint approximation method. In order to utilize the information at different quantile of the sequence, we further construct a "composite quantile test" to calculate the probability of every location of the sequence to be a change-point. The location of change-point can be pinpointed rather than estimated within a interval. The proposed tests make no assumptions about the functional forms of the sequence distribution and work sensitively on both large and small size samples,the case of change-point in the tails, and multiple change-points situation. The good performances of the tests are confirmed by simulations and real data analysis. The saddlepoint approximation based distribution of the test statistic that is developed in the paper is of independent interest and appealing.This finding may be of independent interest to the readers in this research area.

SADDLEPOINT APPROXIMATIONS TO THETWO-SAMPLE PERMUTATION TESTS

A saddlepoint approximation for a two-sample permutation test was obtained by Robinson[7].Although the approximation is very accurate, the formula is very complicated and difficult toapply. In this papert we shall revisit the same problem from a different angle. We shall first turnthe problem into a conditional probability and then apply a Lugannani-Rice type formula to it,which was developed by Skovagard[8] for the mean of i.i.d. samples and by Jing and Robinson[5]for smooth function of vector means. Both the Lugannani-Rice type formula and Robinson'sformula achieve the same relative error of order O(n-3/2), but the former is very compact andmuch easier to use in practice. Some numerical results will be presented to compare the twoformulas.