三江源地区地处青藏高原腹地,是全球气候变化响应敏感区,重建该区全新世降水对理解过去气候变化具有重要意义。目前,三江源地区降水重建以单点为主,难以反映整个区域降水变化。本文通过利用下大武剖面化石孢粉记录,同时搜集该区6处化石...三江源地区地处青藏高原腹地,是全球气候变化响应敏感区,重建该区全新世降水对理解过去气候变化具有重要意义。目前,三江源地区降水重建以单点为主,难以反映整个区域降水变化。本文通过利用下大武剖面化石孢粉记录,同时搜集该区6处化石孢粉点数据,运用转换函数法和点阵成面回归模型重建三江源地区全新世降水变化记录。结果显示:三江源地区全新世早中期降水高于现代年平均降水,全新世晚期降水开始下降。降水变化可分为3个阶段,12.0~6.5 ka B.P.降水波动增加;6.5~4.0 ka B.P.降水波动下降;4.0~0.5 ka B.P.降水波动幅度较小,与现代基本持平,变化幅度不超过100 mm;降水极端期为12.3 ka B.P.降水最少,较现代低90 mm左右;6.5 ka B.P.降水量达到最大值500 mm左右。本研究提供了三江源地区全新世降水变化记录,为研究三江源地区长尺度降水变化规律提供了参考依据。展开更多
In order to get the spatial grid data of monthly precipitation and monthly average temperature of Sanjiangyuan area, the Co-Kriging (COK) and thin plate smoothing splines(TPS) interpolation methods were applied by usi...In order to get the spatial grid data of monthly precipitation and monthly average temperature of Sanjiangyuan area, the Co-Kriging (COK) and thin plate smoothing splines(TPS) interpolation methods were applied by using the climate data during 1971-2000 of 58 meteorological stations around Qinghai Province and the 3 arc-second digital elevation model (DEM) data. The performance was evaluated by the smallest statistical errors by general cross validation (GCV). Root-mean-squared predicted errors (RMSE) and mean absolute errors (MAE) were used to compare the performance of the two methods. The results showed that: 1) After combing covariates into the models, both methods performed better; 2) The performance of TPS was significantly better than COK: for monthly average temperature, the RMSE derived from TPS was 69.48% higher than COK, as MAE increased by 70.56%. And for monthly precipitation, the RMSE derived from TPS was 28.07% higher than COK, as MAE increased by 29.06%.展开更多
文摘三江源地区地处青藏高原腹地,是全球气候变化响应敏感区,重建该区全新世降水对理解过去气候变化具有重要意义。目前,三江源地区降水重建以单点为主,难以反映整个区域降水变化。本文通过利用下大武剖面化石孢粉记录,同时搜集该区6处化石孢粉点数据,运用转换函数法和点阵成面回归模型重建三江源地区全新世降水变化记录。结果显示:三江源地区全新世早中期降水高于现代年平均降水,全新世晚期降水开始下降。降水变化可分为3个阶段,12.0~6.5 ka B.P.降水波动增加;6.5~4.0 ka B.P.降水波动下降;4.0~0.5 ka B.P.降水波动幅度较小,与现代基本持平,变化幅度不超过100 mm;降水极端期为12.3 ka B.P.降水最少,较现代低90 mm左右;6.5 ka B.P.降水量达到最大值500 mm左右。本研究提供了三江源地区全新世降水变化记录,为研究三江源地区长尺度降水变化规律提供了参考依据。
基金Supported by Forestry Science and Technology Support Project (2008BADB0B0203)National Technology Support Project (2007BAC03A08-5)
文摘In order to get the spatial grid data of monthly precipitation and monthly average temperature of Sanjiangyuan area, the Co-Kriging (COK) and thin plate smoothing splines(TPS) interpolation methods were applied by using the climate data during 1971-2000 of 58 meteorological stations around Qinghai Province and the 3 arc-second digital elevation model (DEM) data. The performance was evaluated by the smallest statistical errors by general cross validation (GCV). Root-mean-squared predicted errors (RMSE) and mean absolute errors (MAE) were used to compare the performance of the two methods. The results showed that: 1) After combing covariates into the models, both methods performed better; 2) The performance of TPS was significantly better than COK: for monthly average temperature, the RMSE derived from TPS was 69.48% higher than COK, as MAE increased by 70.56%. And for monthly precipitation, the RMSE derived from TPS was 28.07% higher than COK, as MAE increased by 29.06%.
