Modeling soil conservation, water conservation and their tradeoffs: A case study in Beijing

Natural ecosystems provide society with important goods and services. With the rapid increase in human populations and excessive utilization of natural resources, humans frequently enhance the production of some services at the expense of the others. Although the need for tradeoffs between conservation and development is urgent, the lack of efficient methods to assess such tradeoffs has impeded progress. Three land use strategy scenarios （development scenario, plan trend scenario and conservation scenario） were created to forecast potential changes in ecosystem services from 2007 to 2050 in Beijing, China. GIS-based techniques were used to map spatial and temporal distribution and changes in ecosystem services for each scenario. The provision of ecosystem services differed spatially, with significant changes being associated with different scenarios. Scenario analysis of water yield （as average annual yield） and soil retention （as retention rate per unit area） for the period 2007 to 2050 indicated that the highest values for these parameters were predicted for the forest habitat under all three scenarios. Annual yield/retention of forest, shrub, and grassland ranked the highest in the conservation scenario. Total water yield and soil retention increased in the conservation scenario and declined dramatically in the other two scenarios, especially the development scenario. The conservation scenario was the optimal land use strategy, resulting in the highest soil retention and water yield. Our study suggests that the evaluation and visualization of ecosystem services can effectively assist in understanding the tradeoffs between conservation and development. Results of this study have implications for planning and monitoring future management of natural capital and ecosystem services, which can be integrated into land use decision-making.

Impacts of climate change on hydrology,water quality and crop productivity in the Ohio-Tennessee River Basin

Nonpoint source pollution from agriculture is the main source of nitrogen and phosphorus in the stream systems of the Corn Belt region in the Midwestern US.The eastern part of this region is comprised of the Ohio-Tennessee River Basin(OTRB),which is considered a key contributing area for water pollution and the Northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone.A point of crucial importance in this basin is therefore how intensive corn-based cropping systems for food and fuel production can be sustainable and coexist with a healthy water environment,not only under existing climate but also under climate change conditions in the future.To address this issue,a OTRB integrated modeling system has been built with a greatly refined 12-digit subbasin structure based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)water quality model,which is capable of estimating landscape and in-stream water and pollutant yields in response to a wide array of alternative cropping and/or management strategies and climatic conditions.The effects of three agricultural management scenarios on crop production and pollutant loads exported from the crop land of the OTRB to streams and rivers were evaluated:(1)expansion of continuous corn across the entire basin,(2)adoption of no-till on all corn and soybean fields in the region,(3)implementation of a winter cover crop within the baseline rotations.The effects of each management scenario were evaluated both for current climate and projected mid-century(2046-2065)climates from seven global circulation models(GCMs).In both present and future climates each management scenario resulted in reduced erosion and nutrient loadings to surface water bodies compared to the baseline agricultural management,with cover crops causing the highest water pollution reduction.Corn and soybean yields in the region were negligibly influenced from the agricultural management scenarios.On the other hand,both water quality and crop yield numbers under climate change deviated considerably for all seven GCMs compared to the baseline climate.Future climates from all GCMs led to decreased corn and soybean yields by up to 20%on a mean annual basis,while water quality alterations were either positive or negative depending on the GCM.The study highlights the loss of productivity in the eastern Corn Belt under climate change,the need to consider a range of GCMs when assessing impacts of climate change,and the value of SWAT as a tool to analyze the effects of climate change on parameters of interest at the basin scale.

SWMM-based methodology for block-scale LID-BMPs planning based on site-scale multi-objective optimization： a case study in Tianjin

Low impact development type of best management practices （LID-BMPs） aims to mitigate urban stormwater runoffand lessen pollutant loads in an economical and eco-friendly way and has become a global concern in modem urban stormwater management. A new methodology based on stormwater management model （SWMM） for block-scale LID-BMPs planning was developed. This method integrated LID-BMP chain layout optimization in site-scale parcels with scenario analysis in the entire block-scale urban area. Non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm （NSGA-II） was successfully coupled to SWMM through Python to complete the site-scale optimization process. Different LID scenarios of the research area were designed on the basis of the optimized LID-BMP chain layout. A multi-index evaluation that considered runoff quantity indices, pollutant loads, and construction costs simultaneously helped select the cost-effective scenario as the final planning scheme. A case study in Tianjin, China, was conducted to demonstrate the proposed methodology. Results showed that more than 75% control rate of total runoff volume, 22%-46% peak flow reduction efficiency, and more than 32% pollutant removal rate were achieved. The robustness analysis indicated that the selected final planning scheme was considerably robust with varied weight values.