Trade-offs between ecosystem service provision and the predisposition to disturbances: a NFI-based scenario analysis

Background: Scenario analyses that evaluate management effects on the long-term provision and sustainability of forest ecosystem services and biodiversity(ESB) also need to account for disturbances. The objectives of this study were to reveal potential trade-offs and synergies between ESB provision and disturbance predisposition at the scale of a whole country.Methods: The empirical scenario model MASSIMO was used to simulate forest development and management from years 2016 to 2106 on 5086 sample plots of the Swiss National Forest Inventory(NFI). We included a businessas-usual(BAU) scenario and four scenarios of increased timber harvesting. Model output was evaluated with indicators for 1) ESB provision including a) timber production, b) old-growth forest characteristics as biodiversity proxies and c) protection against rockfall and avalanches and 2) for a) storm and b) bark beetle predisposition.Results: The predisposition indicators corresponded well(AUC: 0.71–0.86) to storm and insect(mostly bark beetle)damage observations in logistic regression models. Increased timber production was generally accompanied with decreased predisposition(storm: >-11%, beetle: >-37%, depending on region and scenario), except for a scenario that promoted conifers where beetle predisposition increased(e.g. + 61% in the Southern Alps). Decreased disturbance predisposition and decreases in old-growth forest indicators in scenarios of increased timber production revealed a trade-off situation. In contrast, growing stock increased under BAU management along with a reduction in conifer proportions, resulting in a reduction of beetle predisposition that in turn was accompanied by increasing old-growth forest indicators. Disturbance predisposition was elevated in NFI plots with high avalanche and rockfall protection value.Conclusions: By evaluating ESB and disturbance predisposition based on single-tree data at a national scale we bridged a gap between detailed, stand-scale assessments and broader inventory-based approaches at the national scale. We discuss the limitations of the indicator framework and advocate for future amendments that include climate-sensitive forest development and disturbance modelling to strengthen decision making in national forest policy making.

Validation and Scenario Analysis of a Soil Organic Carbon Model

A model developed by the authors was validated against independent data sets. The data sets were obtained from field experiments of crop residue decomposition and a 7-year soil improvement in Yixing City, Jiangsu Province. Model validation indicated that soil organic carbon dynamics can be simulated from the weather variables of temperature, sunlight and precipitation, soil clay content and bulk density, grain yield of previous crops, qualities and quantities of the added organic matter. Model simulation in general a-greed with the measurements. The comparison between computed and measured resulted in correlation coefficient γ2 values of 0.9291* * * (n= 48) and 0.6431* * (n = 65) for the two experiments, respectively. Model prediction under three scenarios of no additional organic matter input, with an annual incorporation of rice and wheat straw at rates of 6.75t/ha and 9.0t/ha suggested that the soil organic carbon in Wanshi Township of Yixing City would be from an initial value of 7.85g/kg in 1983 to 6.30g/kg, 11.42g/kg and 13g/kg in 2014, respectively. Consequently, total nitrogen content of the soil was predicted to be respectively 0.49g/kg, 0.89g/kg and 1.01g/kg under the three scenarios.

Scenario analysis on abating industrial process greenhouse gas emissions from adipic acid production in China

Adipic acid is an important petrochemical product,and its production process emits a high concentration of greenhouse gas N_2 O.This paper aims to provide quantitative references for relevant authorities to formulate greenhouse gas control roadmaps.The forecasting method of this paper is consistent with the published national inventory in terms of caliber.Based on the N_2 O abatement technical parameters of adipic acid and the production trend,this paper combines the scenario analysis and provides a measurement of comprehensive N_2 O abatement effect of the entire industry in China.Four future scenarios are assumed.The baseline scenario(BAUS) is a frozen scenario.Three emission abatement scenarios(ANAS,SNAS,and ENAS) are assumed under different strength of abatement driving parameters.The results show that China's adipic acid production process can achieve increasingly significant N_2 O emission abatement effects.Compared to the baseline scenario,by 2030,the N_2 O emission abatements of the three emission abatement scenarios can reach 207-399 kt and the emission abatement ratios can reach 32.5%-62.6%.By 2050,the N_2 O emission abatements for the three emission abatement scenarios can reach 387-540 kt and the emission abatement ratios can reach 71.4%-99.6%.

The cause of human fatigue and scenario analysisin the process of marine transportation

The framework of fatigue factors is constructed to reduce the number of maritime accidents caused by human fatigue.Based on the study of maritime human fatigue,by screening and classifying it,there are 15 fatigue factors,which can be classified into 4 types:sleep,rest and rhythm;work factors;personal conditions;environmental factors.These factors are regarded as the variables for constructing scenarios.The importance,uncertainty,influence and dependence of variables and variable pairs were assessed by using morphological analysis,quantitative scales and correlation matrices.Ship movement and workload are selected as the two key variables,which are regarded as the axes of generating scenarios.One of the scenarios is selected as the typical scenario to illustrate the relationship between the causes of fatigue.Then,the analysis framework is constructed according to the fatigue factors relationship,and several potential solutions are proposed,which include the development of foresighted and flexible work plans,and the application of wearable facilities to improve monitoring and assessment systems.The proposed framework lays a theoretical foundation for studying maritime human fatigue,and scenario analysis can provide an effective strategy for reducing crews'fatigue.

3D Simulation of Storm Surge Disaster Based on Scenario Analysis

The occurrence of storm surge disaster is often accompanied with floodplain, overflow, dike breach and other complex phenomena, while current studies on storm surge flooding are more concentrated on the 1D/2D numerical simulation of single disaster scenario(floodplain, overflow or dike breach), ignoring the composite effects of various phenomena. Therefore, considering the uncertainty in the disaster process of storm surge, scenario analysis was firstly proposed to identify the composite disaster scenario including multiple phenomena by analyzing key driving forces, building scenario matrix and deducing situation logic. Secondly, by combining the advantages of k-ω and k-ε models in the wall treatment, a shear stress transmission k-ω model coupled with VOF was proposed to simulate the 3D flood routing for storm surge disaster. Thirdly, risk degree was introduced to make the risk analysis of storm surge disaster. Finally, based on the scenario analysis, four scenarios with different storm surge intensity(100-year and 200-year frequency) were identified in Tianjin Binhai New Area. Then, 3D numerical simulation and risk map were made for the case.

Scenario analysis of low carbon development in Tianjin, China

Low-carbon economic development has become a.fundamental approach to coordinating economic development and carbon emissions mitigation. As rapid developing economic, aviation and navigation, and financial center of North China. Tianjin＇s energy demand and CO2 emissions are mushrooming, with per capita CO2 emission from fossil fuel combustion exceeding 20 t in 2020, which much exceeds current level of USA. In the background of global responding to climate change, China will likely be requested to commit peaking its GHG emissions during 2020-2030, which will inevitable reduce the room of development in Tianjin enormously. Tianjin should make deployment ahead, realizing win-win of addressing climate change and sustainable development, with low-carbon economic development as important strategic mission. First of all, Tianjin should devote more efforts to reducing energy intensity and realizing relative emission reduction. Scenario analysis shows that Tianjin＇s future CO2 emissions will continue to increase rapidly, but they can be significantly reduced by taking measures. Second, Tianjin should get ready for achieving absolute reduction of CO2 emissions as soon as possible, preparing system, technology and talent in advance, making great efforts to establish institutional meehanisms conducive to low-carbon development from now on. starting from energy conservation and emission reduction, actively carrying out low-carbon technology research and development, vigorously developing the tertiary industry with low emissions, developing new and renewable energy resources, actively promote low-carbon consumption.

Emergy Based Sustainability Scenario Analysis of Oasis Agricultural Systems: A Case Study from Xinjiang, China

How to coordinate arid eco-environmental protection and oasis agricultural development and avoid desertification is a key problem in achieving the sustainable development of oasis human- earth systems. We analyzed the temporal characteristics and overall tendency of an arid oasis agricultural production system in Yining County, China by means of emergy methods and ternary diagrams theory. From 1989–2008, total emergy input and output of the oasis agricultural system in Yining County had a trend of sustainable development. According to the sustainability analysis with emergy indices, the agricultural production systems in Yining County were still at a sustainable status. However, the emergy-based sustainability index （ESI） followed a decreasing trend. Scenario analysis of the sustainability lines based on ternary diagrams showed that both the F （input from economic component） and N （input from nonrenewable resource） leading modes had limitations in the study case. The agricultural production of Yining County should adopt the R leading mode, in which the percentage of non-renewable resources in the local system will be kept roughly unchanged, while the fraction of purchased inputs and renewable resources will be decreased in synchronism. In this way, the contribution from local renewable resources to agricultural production will be increased, and sustainable development ensured.

Scenario analysis of water pollution control in the typical peri-urban river using a coupled hydrodynamic-water quality model

The water quality pollution and ecological deterioration in peri-urban rivers are usually serious under rapid urbanization and economic growth.In the study,a typical peri-urban river,Nansha River,was selected as a case study to discuss the scheme of peri-urban river rehabilitation.Located in the north part of the Beijing central region,the Nansha River watershed has been designated as an ecologically friendly garden-style area with high-tech industry parks and upscale residential zones.However,the Nansha River is currently seriously contaminated by urban and rural pollutants from both nonpoint sources(NPS)and point sources(PS).In this study,the pollutant loads from point sources and nonpoint sources in the Nansha River watershed were first assessed.A coupled model,derived from the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code and Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program,was developed to simulate the hydrodynamics and water quality in the Nansha River.According to the characteristics of the typical peri-urban river,three different PS and NPS control scenarios were designed and examined by modeling analyses.Based on the results of the scenario analysis,a river rehabilitation scheme was recommended for implementation.

Vanadium metabolism investigation using substance flow and scenario analysis

Vanadium is a vital strategic resource, and vanadium metabolism is an important part of the national socio-economic system of China. This study conducts accounting and scenario analysis on the life cycle of vanadium metabolism in China. Based on the character- istics of vanadium life cycle and substance flow analysis （SFA） framework, we present a quantitative evaluation of a static anthropogenic vanadium life cycle for the year 2010. Results show that anthropogenic vanadium consumption, stocks, and new domestic scrap are at 98.2, 21.2, and 4.1 kt, respectively; new scrap is usually discarded. The overall utilization ratio of vanadium is 32.2%. A large amount of vanadium is stockpiled into tailings, debris, slags, and other spent solids. A scenario analysis was conducted to analyze the future developmental trend of vanadium metabolism in China based on the SFA frame- work and the qualitative analysis of technology advance- ment and socio-economic development. The baseline year was set as 2010. Several indicators were proposed to simulate different scenarios from 2010 to 2030. The scenario analysis indicates that the next 20 years is a critical period for the vanadium industry in China. This paper discusses relevant policies that contribute to the improvement of sustainable vanadium utilization in China.

Analysis on Ecological Risk in Northwest China

Based on scenario analysis method, assuming different economic develop- ment policies, and AHP method, the ecological indicators and risk prediction models were established. The trends of ecological risk in the northwest region were ana- lyzed. The results showed that： in the northwest, the potential ecological risks of the population economy, water resources, and land resources and natural disasters still existed. However, the environment and respond to ecological risks were decreasing. Therefore, a regional balanced development measures had been taken to curb the western trend of ecological deterioration. So that socio-economic development, re- sources, environment, and economy were expected to a virtuous cycle, and the eco- logical risks would be reduced. This study provides the basis for land and water use planning and environmental protection of government decision-making and management.

ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY AND SCENARIOS OF URBANIZATION IN ARID AREA——A Case Study in Wuwei City of Gansu Province

Based on data of questionnaire and field survey and two developing models of Business As Usual (BAU) and the Intensive Urbanization (IU), this article, taking Wuwei City, a medium size city and typical oasis arid area in Gansu Province with very vulnerable and sensitive natural environment but long history of oasis economy, as an example, evaluated the sustainability of its environment and analyzed the scenarios of Wuwei’s household energy consumption, waste discharge in transportation industry, primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry, by the integration of the systematical dynamics model Stella and Polestar language to simulate the future development of the research area. The results showed that, first, the developing model of IU was propitious to Wuwei City named for oasis economy and vulnerable natural environment. The strategy of "Intensive Urbanization" can change the structure of energy utilization, and improve the efficiency of energy utilization. Second, the proportion of domestic energy consumption will decrease with industrialization and economic development, while that of tertiary industry, secondary industry and transportation will gradually grow up according to strategy of "Intensive Urbanization". Third, the Wuwei City is facing a severe eco-environmental crisis under the conventional patterns of development and a better future under a sustainable urbanization scenario, in the next 10 to 20 years. The different developing trends were clarified and the relative countermeasures were put forward for the policy makers according to the driving forces.

A scenario-based clean diesel production strategy for China National Petroleum Corporation

Facing increasingly strict environmental regulations on transportation fuels, China National Petroleum Corporation （CNPC）, the second largest supplier of petroleum products in China, needs to upgrade its transportation fuels. Using the scenario-based analysis method, this paper analyzes how the output and emission related properties, including cetane number, and sulfur and aromatics contents of diesel produced by CNPC, will vary with changes in the configuration of diesel production units in the next 5-10 years. The results showed that, to upgrade its diesel, CNPC needs to adjust its diesel pool by decreasing the share of fluid catalytic cracking （FCC） diesel and increasing the shares of hydrocracking （HDC） and hydrotreating （HDT） diesel. Furthermore, to produce ultra-low-sulfur diesel, straight-run diesel as well as poor diesel blendstocks such as FCC diesel and coker diesel should be hydrotreated before being blended into finished diesel. Developing highly efficient HDC and HDT catalysts and corresponding processes is the key to CNPC economically producing more and cleaner diesel.

A scenario-based clean gasoline production strategy for China National Petroleum Corporation

Facing increasingly strict environmental regulations on transportation fuels, China National Petroleum Corp. （CNPC）, the second largest supplier of petroleum products in China, needs to upgrade its transportation fuels. Using the scenario-based analysis method, this paper analyzes how the emission related properties, including antiknock index, and sulfur, olefin, benzene and aromatics contents of gasoline produced by CNPC, vary with the change in the configuration of gasoline production units in the future 5-15 years. The results showed that for CNPC to upgrade its gasoline, the share of fluid catalytic cracking （FCC） naphtha must be reduced, but just increasing reformate or alkylate and isomerate will result in excessive increase in benzene and aromatics contents or a great loss of gasoline octane number. Therefore, CNPC should suitably control the capacity of its FCC units and increase the capacity of reformer, alkylation and isomerization units. Most importantly, CNPC should dramatically expand the capacity of its hydrotreating or non-hydrotreating gasoline upgrading units to decrease the olefin and sulfur contents in FCC gasoline that takes a dominant share of about 80% in the gasoline pool of China.

Technical Analysis of Energy Saving and Emission Reducing in China's Cement Industry Based on LEAP Model

[Objective] The study aimed at evaluating the ability to save energy and reduce CO2 emission in China＇s cement industry. [Method] Based on long-term energy alternative planning system software （LEAP）, ＂LEAP of China＇s cement industry＂ model was established to simulate energy conservation and emission reduction in China＇s cement industry from 2010 to 2040 in different technologic situations. E ResultJ To save ener- gy and reduce CO2 emissions, new dry process kiln has priority over other technologies or measures, followed by equipment enlargement, mechani- cal shaft kiln, power generation system based on waste heat, as well as high-efficiency and energy-saving grinding technology, and new prepara- tion technology. If all the advanced technologies and measures are adopted, energy consumption and C02 emissions can be reduced by about 40.76% and 42.97% respectively. [ Condusion] LEAP of model is suitable for analyzing energy saving and emission reducing in China＇s cement industry and other industrial fields.

An integrated analysis approach to LUCC at regional scale:A case study in the Ganzhou District of Zhangye City,China

Land use/cover change （LUCC） models are helpful tools for analyzing driving forces and processes of land use changes, assessing ecological impacts of land use change and decision-making for land use planning. However, no single model is able to capture all the essential key processes to explore land use change at different spatial-temporal scales and make a full assessment of driving factors and macro-ecological impacts. Taken Ganzhou District as a case study, this paper describes an integrated analysis （IA） ap- proach by combining with system dynamics （SD） model, the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent （CLUE-S） model and landscape indices method to analyze land use dynamics at different spatial-temporal scales. The SD model was used to calculate and predict demands for different land use types at the macro-scale as a whole during 2000-2035. The LUCC process was simulated at a high spatial resolution with the spatial consideration of land use spatial policies and restrictions to satisfy the balance between land use demand and supply by using the CLUE-S model, and Kappa values of the map simulation are 0.86 and 0.81 in 2000 and 2005, respectively. Finally, we evaluated the macro-ecological effect of LUCC and optimized sce- nario managements of land use by using landscape indices method. The IA approach could be used for better understanding the complexity of land use change and provide scientific support for land use planning and management, and the simulation results also could be used as a source data for scenario analysis of different hydrological and ecological processes based on different un- derlying surface of LUCC.

Scenario Formation of Energy Demand and CO_2 Emissionsfor Sustainable China

Co-integration theory has been employed in this paper and Granger causes are found between urbanization rate and GDP, between capital stock and GDP. Scenario analysis of GDP is performed using the GDP model established in the paper. The energy consumptions in Germany, Japan and other developed countries are analyzed and compared with the energy consumption in China. Environmental friendly scenario of energy demand and CO2 emissions for sustainable China has been formed based on the results of comparison. Under environmental friendly scenario, the primary energy consumption will be 4.31 billion ton coal equivalence （tee） and CO2 emissions will be 1.854 billion t-c in 2050; energy per capital will be 3.06 tee that is 1.8 times of energy consumed in 2005 in China and 51% of consumed energy per capital in Japan in 2003. In 2050, the energy requirement of unit GDP will be 20% lower than that of Germany in 2003, but will be still 37% higher than that in Japan in 2003. It is certain that to fulfill the environmental friendly Scenario of energy demand and CO2 emissions is a difficult task and it needs long term efforts of the whole society, not only in production sectors but also in service and household sectors,

Policy Options for Sustainable Development in Urban Transport:Analysis of Energy Consumption and Environmental Benefit Influenced by Different Transport Policies in Beijing

Transportation is a sector with high energy consumption as well as high emissions.Generally speaking,economic growth will inevitably lead to the increase of travel demand and vehicle population,which in turn results into the augmentation of environmental and social costs.For metropolis like Beijing under rapid development,there exist various possibilities and options for transport development policy instruments.But there is no guarantee that they will be suitable for Beijing,although they are effective in their local places.This article assesses what kind of policy can most effectively improve the traffic conditions in Beijing in the future.After literature reviews on the practices of foreign policy and we established several feasible scenarios.Then,we used the Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LREAP) analyzed their corresponding results of reduced energy consumption and emissions.Finally,by simulating and computing the realistic Beijing transportation scenarios,this paper scientifically assesses what kind of policy can most effectively improve the traffic condition in Beijing in the coming decade.

Current status and future trends for material flow analysis applications at CSC

Material Flow Analysis(MFA) is a crucial instrument for sustainable development and creating industrial ecology system.MFA studies could balance and analyze the sources,flows,and consumes of specific materials or substances.The results of MFA studies could support the strategies or decisions making for energy, resource,and waste management,especially achieving sustainable resource management.At CSC,the dynamic simulating software,STELLA,is used to develop a MFA model for scenario analysis.CSC also uses the freeware STAN 2.0 as a tool for visualizing and simulating material flows and stocks.Case studies of greenhouse gases MFA for integrated steel works are conducted.The results showed that the carbon content of hot-metal is an important hidden flow for balance analysis,and the different GHG emission scenarios and mitigation action scenarios are assessed.In addition,the Iron-making GHG I/O MFA Model,based on worldsteel Global Steel Sector Approach(GSSA),is developed for calculating the CO_2 and energy intensity of coke making,sintering,and BF processes.This MFA model was used to analyze the CO_2 reduction potential for iron-making process.The cases conducted for MFA applications at CSC were such as greenhouse gas,zinc,etc.In the future,CSC is going to develop a 'CSC Environment Management and Decision Supporting System' which combine MFA,LCA(life cycle assessment),and environment risk assessment.This supporting system expects to promoting energy efficiency and best resource use,supporting environment policymaking,creating environmental information value,etc.

A practical framework for scenario-based optimal decision-making on water-deficient river ecological restoration in mining areas

Mining activities may cause serious damages to the river ecological environment in mining areas. It has been realized that challenging is faced for optimal decision-making on the river ecological restoration resulting from system complexity, multi-objectives, long term restoration in which multiple stages may be needed to take, and difficulty in detailed process quan- tification. By analyzing and fully reflecting the differences between the central zone and surrounding zones of the restored river passing through the mining area, the comprehensive evaluation index systems of the central zone and surrounding zones are separately suggested firstly. Then a scenario-based optimization decision-making model for river ecological restoration in min- ing areas was established with taking advantages of spatial divisions and following procedure of first going through optimiza- tion by sub-region level, then optimizing by integration. Then, a framework for scenario-based optimal decision-making on water-deficient river ecological restoration in mining areas is proposed in which a multi-objective and multi-stage spatial division optimization method is considered to improve decision-making efficiency and enhance its practicability. It is indicated that this optimization framework is reasonable and practical, which is expected to offer reliable decision support in identifying the effective solutions on optimal management of the water-deficient river ecological restoration in mining areas. At the same time, it has implications in general land reclamation and ecological restoration in the mining areas.

Land use scenarios simulation in ecological conservation area:A case study of Miyun district,Beijing

Ecological conservation area,as the main water source and ecological barrier of a city,provides ecosystem service for urban sustainable development.Land use simulation and forecast could be beneficial to improve future land use efficiency and environmental protection.In this paper,we took the Miyun district as the study area and applied the CLUE-S model for land use simulation,based on land use data in 2001 and 2010.Eight key driving factors were selected,including elevation,slope,distance,population density and others.Based on the adjusted model parameters,the land use patterns of 2020 in Miyun district were simulated respectively for rapid growth scenario,land use planning scenario and ecological protection scenario and then identify the area needed extraordinary supervision in land planning implementation.The results showed that the simulation accuracy for 2010 reached 85%considerably,implying that the CLUE-S model is well fitted for modeling the land use pattern in Miyun district.Construction land increases and cultivated land decreases dramatically by 2020 in rapid growth and land use planning scenarios.The potential land use change tends to occur near Miyun reservoir,while the sensitive area for ecological protection and land planning implementation are distributed around urban area,Fengjiayu and Jugezhuang town.Some opencast mine areas,which would be converted to forest land in planning,will be hard to execute in the actual situation,so these areas should be paid more attention in land management.The conclusions made in this study will provide data reference and basic information for the future ecological protection and land use planning implementation in Miyun district,which could also be useful for other similar cities.