Multi-scenario Simulation and Spatial-temporal Analysis of LUCC in China's Coastal Zone Based on Coupled SD-FLUS Model

Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.

Gyrokinetic simulations of the kinetic electron effects on the electrostatic instabilities on the ITER baseline scenario

The linear and nonlinear simulations are carried out using the gyrokinetic code NLT for the electrostatic instabilities in the core region of a deuterium plasma based on the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor(ITER)baseline scenario.The kinetic electron effects on the linear frequency and nonlinear transport are studied by adopting the adiabatic electron model and the fully drift-kinetic electron model in the NLT code,respectively.The linear simulations focus on the dependence of linear frequency on the plasma parameters,such as the ion and electron temperature gradientsκ_(Ti,e)≡R=L_(Ti,e),the density gradientκ_(n)≡R/L_(n)and the ion-electron temperature ratioτ=T_(e)=T_(i).Here,is the major radius,and T_(e)and T_(i)denote the electron and ion temperatures,respectively.L_(A)=-(δ_(r)lnA)^(-1)is the gradient scale length,with denoting the density,the ion and electron temperatures,respectively.In the kinetic electron model,the ion temperature gradient(ITG)instability and the trapped electron mode(TEM)dominate in the small and large k_(θ)region,respectively,wherek_(θ)is the poloidal wavenumber.The TEMdominant region becomes wider by increasing(decreasing)κ_(T_(e))(κ_(T_(i)))or by decreasingκ_(n).For the nominal parameters of the ITER baseline scenario,the maximum growth rate of dominant ITG instability in the kinetic electron model is about three times larger than that in the adiabatic electron model.The normalized linear frequency depends on the value ofτ,rather than the value of T_(e)or T_(i),in both the adiabatic and kinetic electron models.The nonlinear simulation results show that the ion heat diffusivity in the kinetic electron model is quite a lot larger than that in the adiabatic electron model,the radial structure is finer and the time oscillation is more rapid.In addition,the magnitude of the fluctuated potential at the saturated stage peaks in the ITGdominated region,and contributions from the TEM(dominating in the higher k_(θ)region)to the nonlinear transport can be neglected.In the adiabatic electron model,the zonal radial electric field is found to be mainly driven by the turbulent energy flux,and the contribution of turbulent poloidal Reynolds stress is quite small due to the toroidal shielding effect.However,in the kinetic electron model,the turbulent energy flux is not strong enough to drive the zonal radial electric field in the nonlinear saturated stage.The kinetic electron effects on the mechanism of the turbulence-driven zonal radial electric field should be further investigated.

Land use scenario simulation of mountainous districts based on Dinamica EGO model

Mountainous area makes up 22% of global land, and rational land use in this area is important for sustainable development. Mentougou district has been positioned as an ecological conservation development zone of Beijing and significant land use changes have taken place since 2004. With the combination of GIS and Dinamica EGO(Environment for Geoprocessing Objects) model, the quantitative structure and spatial distribution of land use in Mentougou from 2006 to 2014 are analyzed in this paper. Considering topography has influence on the action mode of driving factors, the research area is divided into two parts based on elevation, mountainous area above 300 m, plain and shallow mountainous area below 300 m. Based on cellular automata theory, the probability of land use change is calculated by Weights of Evidence method and the spatial distribution of land use is simulated by means of two complementary spatial transition functions: Expander and Patcher. Land use pattern of Menougou in 2030 for three kinds of scenarios: trend development, rapid development and ecological protection are simulated. The comparison shows that the trend development scenario is more reasonable based on social, economic and environmental considerations and other scenarios provide a reference for improving irrational land use.

Measurement and Scenario Simulation of Effect of Urbanisation on Regional CO_2 Emissions Based on UEC-SD Model:A Case Study in Liaoning Province,China

Based on the logical causal relationship and taking Liaoning Province, China, which is the Chinese traditional industrial base and is in the stage of accelerated urbanisation, as a case study, this study builds the ＇Urbanisation-Energy Consumption-COn Emissions System Dynamics （UEC-SD）＇ model using a system dynamics method. The UEC-SD model is applied to analyse the effect of the ar- banisation process on the regional energy structure and CO2 emissions, followed by simulation of future production and living energy consumption structure as well as the evolutionary trend of CO2 emissions of three urbanisation scenarios （low speed, intermediate speed and high speed） under the assumed boundary conditions in urban and rural areas of Liaoning Province, China. The results show that the urbanisation process can alter production and the living energy consumption structure and thereby change regional CO2 emissions. An increase in the urbanisation rate in case area will lead to regional COz emissions rising in the short term, but when the urbanisation rate approaches 80%, CO2 emissions will reach a peak value and then decrease. Comparison of different urbanisation rates showed that pro- duction and living energy consumption exhibit different directions of change and rules in urban and rural areas. The effect of urbanisa- tion on CO2 emissions and energy structure is not direct, and urbanisation can increase the differences in energy and CO2 emissions between urban and rural areas caused by the industrial structure, technical level and other factors.

Potential assessment of CO_(2)geological storage based on injection scenario simulation:A case study in eastern Junggar Basin

Carbon Capture and Storage(CCS)is one of the effective means to deal with global warming,and saline aquifer storage is considered to be the most promising storage method.Junggar Basin,located in the northern part of Xinjiang and with a large distribution area of saline aquifer,is an effective carbon storage site.Based on well logging data and 2D seismic data,a 3D heterogeneous geological model of the Cretaceous Donggou Formation reservoir near D7 well was constructed,and dynamic simulations under two scenarios of single-well injection and multi-well injection were carried out to explore the storage potential and CO2 storage mechanism of deep saline aquifer with real geological conditions in this study.The results show that within 100 km^(2)of the saline aquifer of Donggou Formation in the vicinity of D7 well,the theoretical static CO_(2)storage is 71.967×106 tons(P50)①,and the maximum dynamic CO_(2)storage is 145.295×106 tons(Case2).The heterogeneity of saline aquifer has a great influence on the spatial distribution of CO_(2)in the reservoir.The multi-well injection scenario is conducive to the efficient utilization of reservoir space and safer for storage.Based on the results from theoretical static calculation and the dynamic simulation,the effective coefficient of CO_(2)storage in deep saline aquifer in the eastern part of Xinjiang is recommended to be 4.9%.This study can be applied to the engineering practice of CO_(2)sequestration in the deep saline aquifer in Xinjiang.

Multi-agent Based Hierarchy Simulation Models of Carrier-based Aircraft Catapult Launch

With the aid of multi-agent based modeling approach to complex systems, the hierarchy simulation models of carrier-based aircraft catapult launch are developed. Ocean, carrier, aircraft, and atmosphere are treated as aggregation agents, the detailed components like catapult, landing gears, and disturbances are considered as meta-agents, which belong to their aggregation agent. Thus, the model with two layers is formed i.e. the aggregation agent layer and the meta-agent layer. The information communication among all agents is described. The meta-agents within one aggregation agent communicate with each other directly by information sharing, but the meta-agents, which belong to different aggregation agents exchange their information through the aggregation layer first, and then perceive it from the sharing environment, that is the aggregation agent. Thus, not only the hierarchy model is built, but also the environment perceived by each agent is specified. Meanwhile, the problem of balancing the independency of agent and the resource consumption brought by real-time communication within multi-agent system （MAS） is resolved. Each agent involved in carrier-based aircraft catapult launch is depicted, with considering the interaction within disturbed atmospheric environment and multiple motion bodies including carrier, aircraft, and landing gears. The models of reactive agents among them are derived based on tensors, and the perceived messages and inner frameworks of each agent are characterized. Finally, some results of a simulation instance are given. The simulation and modeling of dynamic system based on multi-agent system is of benefit to express physical concepts and logical hierarchy clearly and precisely. The system model can easily draw in kinds of other agents to achieve a precise simulation of more complex system. This modeling technique makes the complex integral dynamic equations of multibodies decompose into parallel operations of single agent, and it is convenient to expand, maintain, and reuse the program codes.

Simulation-based automatic generation of risk scenarios

A methodology for automatically generating risk scenarios is presented.Its main idea is to let the system model ＂express itself＂ through simulation.This is achieved by having the simulation model driven by an elaborated simulation engine,which：（i） manipulates the generation of branch points,i.e.event occurrence times;（ii） employs a depth-first systematic exploration strategy to cover all possible branch paths at each branch point.In addition,a backtracking technique,as an extension,is implemented to recover some missed risk scenarios.A widely discussed dynamic reliability example（a holdup tank） is used to aid in the explanation of and to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Simulation and uniform design-based automatic generation of risk scenarios

This paper presents a methodology for automatically generating risk scenarios for dynamic reliability applications in which some dynamic characteristics(e.g.,the order,timing and magnitude of events,the value of relevant process parameters and initial conditions) have a significant influence on the evolution of the system.The main idea of the methodology is:(i) making the system model "express itself" through simulation by having the model driven by an elaborated simulation engine;(ii) exploiting uniform design to pick out a small subset of representative design points from the space of relevant dynamic characteristics;(iii) for each selected design point,employing a depth-first systematic exploration strategy to cover all possible scenario branches at each branch point.A highly dynamic example adapted from the literature(a chemical batch reactor) is studied to test the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

3D Simulation of Storm Surge Disaster Based on Scenario Analysis

The occurrence of storm surge disaster is often accompanied with floodplain, overflow, dike breach and other complex phenomena, while current studies on storm surge flooding are more concentrated on the 1D/2D numerical simulation of single disaster scenario(floodplain, overflow or dike breach), ignoring the composite effects of various phenomena. Therefore, considering the uncertainty in the disaster process of storm surge, scenario analysis was firstly proposed to identify the composite disaster scenario including multiple phenomena by analyzing key driving forces, building scenario matrix and deducing situation logic. Secondly, by combining the advantages of k-ω and k-ε models in the wall treatment, a shear stress transmission k-ω model coupled with VOF was proposed to simulate the 3D flood routing for storm surge disaster. Thirdly, risk degree was introduced to make the risk analysis of storm surge disaster. Finally, based on the scenario analysis, four scenarios with different storm surge intensity(100-year and 200-year frequency) were identified in Tianjin Binhai New Area. Then, 3D numerical simulation and risk map were made for the case.

Simulation of Ground Motion at Guanting Reservoir Dam Based on the Scenario Earthquake in the Yanqing-Huailai Basin

Research at home and abroad shows that the simulation of ground motion using the 3D finite-difference method might be accurate and feasible. Based on related theories and methods,and using the wave velocity and density model of the crust in the Yanqing-Huailai Basin,this paper makes a simulation of ground motion at Guanting Reservoir Dam based on the scenario earthquake in the Yanqing-Huailai Basin. Comparative analysis shows that the results of 3D finite-difference simulation accord with those of the empirical formula. The parameters such as the velocity-time series of ground motion,PGV and frequency might be referred to for the analysis of seismic protection design of the dam's structure.

A Method for the Application of Numerical Simulations during Firefighting Operations Using Pre-Simulated, Model-Based Fire Scenarios

The spread of fire and smoke during a fire incident plays a crucial role in rescuing people from the burning building. So it is important for the decision makers (the head of rescue staff) to get a prediction about the spread of fire inside the building through computational techniques like numerical fire simulations. But these techniques require advanced mathematical knowledge and are very time consuming. This paper presents a new method which employs a set of pre-simulated and model-based scenarios to find the closest one to the real fire and present its results to the decision makers. For this purpose, we shift the performance consuming numerical fire simulations into a former phase by integration of these simulations into the planning process of the building. This is realized by enhancing the methods of Building Information Modeling (BIM). To provide the fire simulation results during a real case, our new concept includes a scenario database where all simulated fire scenarios will be collected. In a real case, a special search algorithm will go through this database to find the closest pre-simulated fire scenario to the real fire on the basis of reported information from the burning building.

Multi-scenario Simulation of the Impact of Land Use Change on the Ecosystem Service Value in the Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou Metropolitan Area,China

As the most economically developed metropolitan area in China’s Yangtze River Delta,the rapid changing land use patterns of Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou(Su-Xi-Chang) metropolitan area have profound impacts on the ecosystem service value(ESV).Based on the patterns of land use change and the ESV change in Su-Xi-Chang metropolitan area from 2000 to 2020,we set up four scenarios:natural development scenario,urban development scenario,arable land protection scenario and ecological protection scenario,and simulated the impact of land use changes on the ESV in these scenarios.The results showed that:1) the area of built-up land in the Su-XiChang metropolitan area increased significantly from 2000 to 2020,and the area of other types of land decreased.Arable land underwent the highest transfer-out area,and was primarily converted into built-up land.The total ESV of Su-Xi-Chang metropolitan area increased initially then declined from 2000–2020,and the value of almost all individual ecosystem services decreased.2) Population density,GDP per area,night lighting intensity,and road network density can negatively impact the ESV.3) The total ESV loss under the natural development and urban development scenarios was high,and the expansion of the built-up land and the drastic shrinkage of the arable land contributed to the ESV decline under both scenarios.The total ESV under arable land protection and ecological protection scenarios increases,and therefore these scenarios are suitable for future land use optimization in Su-Xi-Chang.This study could provide a certain reference for land use planning and allocation,and offer guidance for the rational allocation of land resources.

Application of Patient Simulators Combined with Internet plus Scenario Simulation Teaching Models on Intravenous Infusion Nursing Education in China

Objective: To explore the effectiveness of applying patient simulators combined with Internet Plus scenario simulation teaching models on intravenous (IV) infusion nursing education, and to provide scientific evidence for the implementation of advanced teaching models in future nursing education. Methods: Enrolled 60 nurses who took the IV infusion therapy training program in our hospital from January 2022 to December 2023 for research. 30 nurses who were trained in traditional teaching models from January to December 2022 were selected as the control group, and 30 nurses who were trained with simulation-based teaching models with methods including simulated patients, internet, online meetings which can be replayed and scenario simulation, etc. from January to December 2023 were selected as the experimental group. Evaluated the learning outcomes based on the Competency Inventory for Nursing Students (CINS), Problem-Solving Inventory (PSI), comprehensive learning ability, scientific research ability, and proficiency in the theoretical knowledge and practical skills of IV infusion therapy. Nursing quality, the incidence of IV infusion therapy complications and nurse satisfaction with different teaching models were also measured. Results: The scientific research ability, PSI scores, CINS scores, and comprehensive learning ability of the experimental group were better than those of the control group (P 0.05), and their assessment results of practical skills, nursing quality of IV infusion therapy during training, and satisfaction with teaching models were all better than those of the control group with statistical significance (P < 0.05). The incidence of IV infusion therapy complications in the experimental group was lower than that in the control group, indicating statistical significance (P < 0.05). Conclusions: Teaching models based on patient simulators combined with Internet Plus scenario simulation enable nursing students to learn more directly and practice at any time and in any place, and can improve their proficiency in IV infusion theoretical knowledge and skills (e.g. PICC catheterization), core competencies, problem-solving ability, comprehensive learning ability, scientific research ability and the ability to deal with complicated cases. Also, it helps provide high-quality nursing education, improve the nursing quality of IV therapy, reduce the incidence of related complications, and ensure the safety of patients with IV therapy.

Simulation Modeling of the Motion Control of a Two Degree of Freedom,Tendon Based,Parallel Manipulator in Operational Space Using MATLAB

In this paper a dynamical model of a two degree of freedom,tendon based,parallel manipulator (TBPM) system is proposed. The motion control methods of the TBPM system were designed. Using MATLAB,the motion control simulation of this model TBPM system was implemented in preparation for actual experiments. The results of the simulation demonstrated that the response time of the system was in a reasonable range,the motion behavior of the platform was stable and the tension forces acting on the tendons were in a safe range and acceptable. Furthermore,the parameters of the controllers were optimized using MATLAB and better results for the time response were obtained.

Design for the simulation of space based information network

Ongoing research is described that is focused upon modelling the space base information network and simulating its behaviours： simulation of spaced based communications and networking project. Its objective is to demonstrate the feasibility of producing a tool that can provide a performance evaluation of various eonstellation access techniques and routing policies. The architecture and design of the simulation system are explored. The algorithm of data routing and instrument scheduling in this project is described. Besides these, the key methodologies of simulating the inter-satellite link features in the data transmissions are also discussed. The performance of both instrument scheduling algorithm and routing schemes is evaluated and analyzed through extensive simulations under a typical scenario.

Simulation of the plasticizing behavior of composite modified doublebase(CMDB)propellant in grooved calendar based on adaptive grid technology

The frequent occurrence of safety accidents during the calendering process is caused by the flammable and explosive properties of composite modified double-base(CMDB)propellant.Optimization of process parameters with the aid of fluid simulation technology could effectively ensure the safety of the calendering process.To improve the accuracy of the simulation results,material parameters and model structure were corrected based on actual conditions,and adaptive grid technology was applied in the local mesh refinement.In addition,the rheological behavior,motion trajectories and heat transfer mechanisms of CMDB propellant slurry were studied with different gaps,rotational rates and temperatures of two rollers.The results indicated that the refined mesh could significantly improve the contour clarity of boundaries and simulate the characteristics of CMDB propellant slurry reflux movement caused by the convergent flow near the outlet.Compared with the gap,the increased rotational rate of roller could promote the reflux movement and intensify the shear flow of slurry inside the flow region by viscous shear dragging.Meanwhile,under the synergistic effect of contact heat transfer as well as convective heat exchange,heat accumulated near the outlet and diffused along the reflux movement,which led to the countercurrent heat dissipation behavior of CMDB propellant slurry.The plasticizing mechanism of slurry and the safety of calendering under different conditions were explored,which provided theoretical guidance and reference data for the optimization of calendering process conditions.Based on the simulation results,the safety of the CMDB propellant calendering process could be significantly improved with a few tests conducted during a short research and development cycle.

Determination of Slip Length in Couette Flow Based on an Analytical Simulation Incorporating Surface Interaction

An analytical simulation based on a new model incorporating surface interaction is conducted to study the slip phenomenon in the Couette flow at different scales. The velocity profile is calculated by taking account of the micro-force between molecules and macro-force from the viscous shearing effect, as they contribute to the achieve- ment of the slip length. The calculated results are compared with those obtained from the molecular dynamics simulation, showing an excellent agreement. Further, the effect of the shear rate on the slip is investigated. The results can well predict the fluid flow behaviors on a solid substrate, but has to be proved by experiment.

3D Geometry-Based UAV-MIMO Channel Modeling and Simulation

A more general narrowband regular-shaped geometry-based statistical model(RS-GBSM) combined with the line of sight(LoS) and single bounce(SB) rays for unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV) multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO) channel is proposed in this paper. The channel characteristics, including space-time correlation function(STCF), Doppler power spectral density(DPSD), level crossing rate(LCR) and average fade duration(AFD), are derived based on the single sphere reference model for a non-isotropic environment. The corresponding sum-of-sinusoids(SoS) simulation models including both the deterministic model and statistical model with finite scatterers are also proposed for practicable implementation. The simulation results illustrate that the simulation models well reproduce the channel characteristics of the single sphere reference model with sufficient simulation scatterers. And the statistical model has a better approximation of the reference model in comparison with the deterministic one when the simulation trials of the stochastic model are sufficient. The effects of the parameters such as flight height, moving direction and Rice factor on the characteristics are also studied.

Medical simulation-based education improves medicos' clinical skills

Clinical skill is an essential part of clinical medicine and plays quite an important role in bridging medicos and physicians. Due to the realities in China, traditional medical education is facing many challenges. There are few opportunities for students to practice their clinical skills and their dexterities are generally at a low level. Medical simulation-based education is a new teaching modality and helps to improve medicos＇ clinical skills to a large degree. Medical simulation-based education has many significant advantages and will be further developed and applied.

Physics-based Modeling and Simulation for Motional Cable Harness Design

The design work of motional cable in products is vital due to the difficulty in estimating the potential issues in current researches.In this paper,a physics-based modeling and simulation method for the motional cable harness design is presented.The model,based on continuum mechanics,is established by analyzing the force of microelement in equilibrium.During the analysis procedure,three coordinate systems：inertial,Frenet and main-axis coordinate systems are used.By variable substitution and dimensionless processing,the equation set is discretized by differential quadrature method and subsequently becomes an overdetermined nonlinear equation set with boundary conditions solved by Levenberg-Marquardt method.With the profile of motional cable harness obtained from the integral of arithmetic solution,a motion simulation system based on＂path＂and＂profile＂as well as the experimental equipments is built.Using the same parameters as input for the simulation and the real cable harness correspondingly,the issue in designing,such as collision,can be easily found by the simulation system.This research obtains a better result which has no potential collisions by redesign,and the proposed method can be used as an accurate and efficient way in motional cable harness design work.