This paper describes the datasets from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project(ScenarioMIP)simulation experiments run with the Chinese Academy of Sciences Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model,GridPo...This paper describes the datasets from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project(ScenarioMIP)simulation experiments run with the Chinese Academy of Sciences Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model,GridPoint version 3(CAS FGOALS-g3).FGOALS-g3 is driven by eight shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs)with different sets of future emission,concentration,and land-use scenarios.All Tier 1 and 2 experiments were carried out and were initialized using historical runs.A branch run method was used for the ensemble simulations.Model outputs were three-hourly,six-hourly,daily,and/or monthly mean values for the primary variables of the four component models.An evaluation and analysis of the simulations is also presented.The present results are expected to aid research into future climate change and socio-economic development.展开更多
The datasets for the tier-1 Scenario Model Intercomparison Project(ScenarioMIP)experiments from the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model,finite-volume version 3(CAS FGOALS...The datasets for the tier-1 Scenario Model Intercomparison Project(ScenarioMIP)experiments from the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model,finite-volume version 3(CAS FGOALS-f3-L)are described in this study.ScenarioMIP is one of the core MIP experiments in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6).Considering future CO2,CH4,N2O and other gases’concentrations,as well as land use,the design of ScenarioMIP involves eight pathways,including two tiers(tier-1 and tier-2)of priority.Tier-1 includes four combined Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)with radiative forcing,i.e.,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5,in which the globally averaged radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere around the year 2100 is approximately 2.6,4.5,7.0 and 8.5 W m−2,respectively.This study provides an introduction to the ScenarioMIP datasets of this model,such as their storage location,sizes,variables,etc.Preliminary analysis indicates that surface air temperatures will increase by about 1.89℃,3.07℃,4.06℃ and 5.17℃ by around 2100 under these four scenarios,respectively.Meanwhile,some other key climate variables,such as sea-ice extension,precipitation,heat content,and sea level rise,also show significant long-term trends associated with the radiative forcing increases.These datasets will help us understand how the climate will change under different anthropogenic and radiative forcings.展开更多
Global warming may result in increased polar amplification,but future temperature changes under different climate change scenarios have not been systematically investigated over Antarctica.An index of Antarctic amplif...Global warming may result in increased polar amplification,but future temperature changes under different climate change scenarios have not been systematically investigated over Antarctica.An index of Antarctic amplification(AnA)is defined,and the annual and seasonal variations of Antarctic mean temperature are examined from projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)under scenarios SSP119,SSP126,SSP245,SSP370 and SSP585.AnA occurs under all scenarios,and is strongest in the austral summer and autumn,with an AnA index greater than 1.40.Although the warming over Antarctica accelerates with increased anthropogenic forcing,the magnitude of AnA is greatest in SSP126 instead of in SSP585,which may be affected by strong ocean heat uptake in high forcing scenario.Moreover,future AnA shows seasonal difference and regional difference.AnA is most conspicuous in the East Antarctic sector,with the amplification occurring under all scenarios and in all seasons,especially in austral summer when the AnA index is greater than 1.50,and the weakest signal appears in austral winter.Differently,the AnA over West Antarctica is strongest in austral autumn.Under SSP585,the temperature increase over the Antarctic Peninsula exceeds 0.5℃when the global average warming increases from 1.5℃to 2.0℃above preindustrial levels,except in the austral summer,and the AnA index in this region is strong in the austral autumn and winter.The projections suggest that the warming rate under different scenarios might make a large difference to the future AnA.展开更多
基金This study was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant Nos.2017YFA0603903,2017YFA0603901,and 2017YFA0603902)the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDB42010404)the National Basic Research(973)Program of China(Grant Nos.2015CB954102).
文摘This paper describes the datasets from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project(ScenarioMIP)simulation experiments run with the Chinese Academy of Sciences Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model,GridPoint version 3(CAS FGOALS-g3).FGOALS-g3 is driven by eight shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs)with different sets of future emission,concentration,and land-use scenarios.All Tier 1 and 2 experiments were carried out and were initialized using historical runs.A branch run method was used for the ensemble simulations.Model outputs were three-hourly,six-hourly,daily,and/or monthly mean values for the primary variables of the four component models.An evaluation and analysis of the simulations is also presented.The present results are expected to aid research into future climate change and socio-economic development.
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant Nos.XDA19060102 and XDB42000000)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants Nos.41530426 and 91958201)。
文摘The datasets for the tier-1 Scenario Model Intercomparison Project(ScenarioMIP)experiments from the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model,finite-volume version 3(CAS FGOALS-f3-L)are described in this study.ScenarioMIP is one of the core MIP experiments in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6).Considering future CO2,CH4,N2O and other gases’concentrations,as well as land use,the design of ScenarioMIP involves eight pathways,including two tiers(tier-1 and tier-2)of priority.Tier-1 includes four combined Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)with radiative forcing,i.e.,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5,in which the globally averaged radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere around the year 2100 is approximately 2.6,4.5,7.0 and 8.5 W m−2,respectively.This study provides an introduction to the ScenarioMIP datasets of this model,such as their storage location,sizes,variables,etc.Preliminary analysis indicates that surface air temperatures will increase by about 1.89℃,3.07℃,4.06℃ and 5.17℃ by around 2100 under these four scenarios,respectively.Meanwhile,some other key climate variables,such as sea-ice extension,precipitation,heat content,and sea level rise,also show significant long-term trends associated with the radiative forcing increases.These datasets will help us understand how the climate will change under different anthropogenic and radiative forcings.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42276260,41671073)the 2021 technical support talent project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences。
文摘Global warming may result in increased polar amplification,but future temperature changes under different climate change scenarios have not been systematically investigated over Antarctica.An index of Antarctic amplification(AnA)is defined,and the annual and seasonal variations of Antarctic mean temperature are examined from projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)under scenarios SSP119,SSP126,SSP245,SSP370 and SSP585.AnA occurs under all scenarios,and is strongest in the austral summer and autumn,with an AnA index greater than 1.40.Although the warming over Antarctica accelerates with increased anthropogenic forcing,the magnitude of AnA is greatest in SSP126 instead of in SSP585,which may be affected by strong ocean heat uptake in high forcing scenario.Moreover,future AnA shows seasonal difference and regional difference.AnA is most conspicuous in the East Antarctic sector,with the amplification occurring under all scenarios and in all seasons,especially in austral summer when the AnA index is greater than 1.50,and the weakest signal appears in austral winter.Differently,the AnA over West Antarctica is strongest in austral autumn.Under SSP585,the temperature increase over the Antarctic Peninsula exceeds 0.5℃when the global average warming increases from 1.5℃to 2.0℃above preindustrial levels,except in the austral summer,and the AnA index in this region is strong in the austral autumn and winter.The projections suggest that the warming rate under different scenarios might make a large difference to the future AnA.
