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Application of Patient Simulators Combined with Internet plus Scenario Simulation Teaching Models on Intravenous Infusion Nursing Education in China
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作者 Ying Wu Yun Chen +5 位作者 Liuyan Zhang Guohua Huang Jinai He Yutong Li Yuzhen Renqing Zhijuan Zhan 《Journal of Biosciences and Medicines》 2024年第1期64-71,共8页
Objective: To explore the effectiveness of applying patient simulators combined with Internet Plus scenario simulation teaching models on intravenous (IV) infusion nursing education, and to provide scientific evidence... Objective: To explore the effectiveness of applying patient simulators combined with Internet Plus scenario simulation teaching models on intravenous (IV) infusion nursing education, and to provide scientific evidence for the implementation of advanced teaching models in future nursing education. Methods: Enrolled 60 nurses who took the IV infusion therapy training program in our hospital from January 2022 to December 2023 for research. 30 nurses who were trained in traditional teaching models from January to December 2022 were selected as the control group, and 30 nurses who were trained with simulation-based teaching models with methods including simulated patients, internet, online meetings which can be replayed and scenario simulation, etc. from January to December 2023 were selected as the experimental group. Evaluated the learning outcomes based on the Competency Inventory for Nursing Students (CINS), Problem-Solving Inventory (PSI), comprehensive learning ability, scientific research ability, and proficiency in the theoretical knowledge and practical skills of IV infusion therapy. Nursing quality, the incidence of IV infusion therapy complications and nurse satisfaction with different teaching models were also measured. Results: The scientific research ability, PSI scores, CINS scores, and comprehensive learning ability of the experimental group were better than those of the control group (P 0.05), and their assessment results of practical skills, nursing quality of IV infusion therapy during training, and satisfaction with teaching models were all better than those of the control group with statistical significance (P < 0.05). The incidence of IV infusion therapy complications in the experimental group was lower than that in the control group, indicating statistical significance (P < 0.05). Conclusions: Teaching models based on patient simulators combined with Internet Plus scenario simulation enable nursing students to learn more directly and practice at any time and in any place, and can improve their proficiency in IV infusion theoretical knowledge and skills (e.g. PICC catheterization), core competencies, problem-solving ability, comprehensive learning ability, scientific research ability and the ability to deal with complicated cases. Also, it helps provide high-quality nursing education, improve the nursing quality of IV therapy, reduce the incidence of related complications, and ensure the safety of patients with IV therapy. 展开更多
关键词 Specialty of Intravenous Infusion Therapy Nursing Education Patient Simulators Internet Plus Scenario simulation Teaching Model
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Land use scenario simulation of mountainous districts based on Dinamica EGO model 被引量:4
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作者 CHENG Lin-lin LIU Mei ZHAN Jia-qi 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2020年第2期289-303,共15页
Mountainous area makes up 22% of global land, and rational land use in this area is important for sustainable development. Mentougou district has been positioned as an ecological conservation development zone of Beiji... Mountainous area makes up 22% of global land, and rational land use in this area is important for sustainable development. Mentougou district has been positioned as an ecological conservation development zone of Beijing and significant land use changes have taken place since 2004. With the combination of GIS and Dinamica EGO(Environment for Geoprocessing Objects) model, the quantitative structure and spatial distribution of land use in Mentougou from 2006 to 2014 are analyzed in this paper. Considering topography has influence on the action mode of driving factors, the research area is divided into two parts based on elevation, mountainous area above 300 m, plain and shallow mountainous area below 300 m. Based on cellular automata theory, the probability of land use change is calculated by Weights of Evidence method and the spatial distribution of land use is simulated by means of two complementary spatial transition functions: Expander and Patcher. Land use pattern of Menougou in 2030 for three kinds of scenarios: trend development, rapid development and ecological protection are simulated. The comparison shows that the trend development scenario is more reasonable based on social, economic and environmental considerations and other scenarios provide a reference for improving irrational land use. 展开更多
关键词 Land use change Mountainous districts Dinamica EGO model scenarios simulation Mentougou district
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Modelling scenarios of land use change in northern China in the next 50 years 被引量:2
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作者 HEChunyang LIJinggang SHIPeijun CHENJin PANYaozhong LIXiaobing 《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 SCIE CSCD 2005年第2期177-186,共10页
Modelling scenarios of land use change and their impacts in typical regions are helpful to investigate the mechanism between land use and ecological systems and process the land use allocation under the ecological sec... Modelling scenarios of land use change and their impacts in typical regions are helpful to investigate the mechanism between land use and ecological systems and process the land use allocation under the ecological security. A system dynamics (SD) model with the aim to modelling scenarios of land use change and assessing ecological impact in northern China in the next 50 years is developed here. The accuracy assessment with the historic data from 1990 to 2001 indicated the SD model is robust. After the different 'what-if' scenarios controlled by GDP, population, market, and technology advancement were built, the different scenarios of land use change in northern China from 2000 to 2050 were simulated with their ecological impact assessed. The result suggested that such factors as GDP, population, market and technology have a strong relationship with land use structural change in northern China. It also indicated that such measures as strict controlling of population increase, importing some food to keep the supply-demand balance in the region, and improving agricultural technology will be the guarantee of regional sustainable development with fast economic growth and the obvious land use structural improvement at the same time. 展开更多
关键词 northern China land use scenarios simulation
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Simulation of Urban Land Expansion Under Ecological Constraints in Harbin-Changchun Urban Agglomeration,China 被引量:4
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作者 GUO Rong WU Tong +2 位作者 WU Xiaochen LUIGI Stendardo WANG Yueqin 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2022年第3期438-455,共18页
Under the demand of urban expansion and the constraints of China’s’National Main Functional Area Planning’policy,urban agglomerations are facing with a huge contradiction between land utilization and ecological pro... Under the demand of urban expansion and the constraints of China’s’National Main Functional Area Planning’policy,urban agglomerations are facing with a huge contradiction between land utilization and ecological protection,especially for HarbinChangchun urban agglomeration who owns a large number of land used for the protection of agricultural production and ecological function.To alleviate this contradiction and provide insight into future land use patterns under different ecological constraints’scenarios,we introduced the patch-based land use simulation(PLUS)model and simulated urban expansion of the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration.After verifying the accuracy of the simulation result in 2018,we predicted future urban expansion under the constraints of three different ecological scenarios in 2026.The morphological spatial pattern analysis(MSPA)method and minimum cumulative resistance(MCR)model were also introduced to identify different levels of ecological security pattern(ESP)as ecological constraints.The predicted result of the optimal protection(OP)scenario showed less proportion of water and forest than those of natural expansion(NE)and basic protection(BP)scenarios in 2026.The conclusions are that the PLUS model can improve the simulation accuracy at urban agglomeration scale compared with other cellular automata(CA)models,and the future urban expansion under OP scenario has the least threat to the ecosystem,while the expansion under the natural expansion(NE)scenario poses the greatest threat to the ecosystem.Combined with the MSPA and MCR methods,PLUS model can also be used in other spatial simulations of urban agglomerations under ecological constraints. 展开更多
关键词 urban land expansion patch-based land use simulation(PLUS)model Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration scenario simulation ecological constraints China
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Spatio-temporal Dynamic Simulation of Land use and Ecological Risk in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration,China 被引量:2
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作者 WANG Xiao CHE Lei +1 位作者 ZHOU Liang XU Jiangang 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2021年第5期829-847,共19页
Rapid urbanization leads to dramatic changes in land use patterns,and the land use/cover change(LUCC)can reflect the spatial impact of urbanization on the ecological environment.Simulating the process of LUCC and pred... Rapid urbanization leads to dramatic changes in land use patterns,and the land use/cover change(LUCC)can reflect the spatial impact of urbanization on the ecological environment.Simulating the process of LUCC and predicting the ecological risk future changes can provide supports for urban ecological management.Taking the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration(YRDUA),China as the study area,four developmental scenarios were set on the basis of the land use data from 2005 to 2015.The temporal land use changes were predicted by the integration of the system dynamic and the future land use simulation(SD-FLUS)model,and the geographically weighted regression(GWR)model was used to identify the spatial heterogeneity and evolution characteristics between ecological risk index(ERI)and socio-economic driving forces.Results showed that:1)From 2005 to 2015,the expansion of construction land(7670.24 km^(2))mainly came from the occupation of cultivated land(7854.22 km2).The Kappa coefficient of the SD-FLUS model was 0.886,indicating that this model could be used to predict the future land use changes in the YRDUA.2)Gross domestic production(GDP)and population density(POP)showed a positive effect on the ERI,and the impact of POP exceeded that of GDP.The ERI showed the characteristics of zonal diffusion and a slight upward trend,and the high ecological risk region increased by 6.09%,with the largest increase.3)Under different developmental scenarios,the land use and ecological risk patterns varied.The construction land is increased by 5.76%,7.41%,5.25%and 6.06%,respectively.And the high ecological risk region accounted for 12.71%,15.06%,11.89%,and 12.94%,correspondingly.In Scenario D,the structure of land use and ecological risk pattern was better compared with other scenarios considering the needs of rapid economic and ecological protection.This study is helpful to understand the spatio-temporal pattern and demand of land use types,grasp the ecological security pattern of large-scale areas,and provide scientific basis for the territory development of urban agglomeration in the future. 展开更多
关键词 URBANIZATION ecological risk scenario simulation geographically weighted regression(GWR) spatial planning
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Factor analysis and countermeasure simulation on the socio-ecological environment risks during the development of coalbed methane:based on the DEMATEL and FCM models
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作者 Ye Xue Xiaodong Ji Chongyi Xue 《Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment》 2022年第1期69-79,共11页
The socio-ecological environmental problem caused by the development of coalbed methane(CBM)is becoming more serious,so it is very significant for accelerating the development of CBM industrialization to identify the ... The socio-ecological environmental problem caused by the development of coalbed methane(CBM)is becoming more serious,so it is very significant for accelerating the development of CBM industrialization to identify the main influential factors of socioecological environmental risks and take effective risk prevention measures.Based on the triangular fuzzy number method,this paper firstly establishes a comprehensive correlation matrix.Then,the affected factors of socio-ecological environmental risks are analyzed by the DEMATEL method during the development of CBM.Then according to the aspects of centrality and causality,the key indicators are determined.Furthermore,the scenario simulation based on the FCM,the steady-state value and the comprehensive importance of key indicators,and the core indicators are selected.Finally,the scenario simulation of risk management countermeasure is done.The results show that:①The index weights are calculated by the triangular fuzzy numbers,and the correlation matrix in DEMATEL is obtained by the weight ratio,which reduces the shortcomings and the subjectivity of traditional DEMATEL method.②The correlation matrix in FCM is established based on the comprehensive correlation matrix in the above improved DEMATEL,which not only makes the FCM model more comprehensive and reduces the difficulty that the FCM correlation matrix is obtained considering the indirect influence relationship between indicators,but also makes up for the disadvantages that DEMATEL excludes during the selection of the core indexes,which are the considerations of the dynamic change of the importance of the indicators.③The rate of forestry and grass coverage,the ratio of investment in prevention and construction,the pollution index of soil Merlot,the reliability of machinery and equipment,the standard evaluation index of major pollution factors of underground water,and the ability of personal risk prevention are the key indicators,in which the rate of forestry and grass coverage,the ratio of investment in prevention and construction,and the reliability of machinery and equipment are the core indicators and are extremely important for the management of socio-ecological environmental risks during the development of coalbed methane.④The results of the scenario simulation of risk management countermeasure show that the core variables affect the socio-ecological environmental risks through such indicators as the degree of production mechanization,the degree of demolition and resettlement,and the ratio of economic loss by the influenced mechanism analysis;the ratio of investment in prevention and construction has the greatest impact on the socio-ecological environment risks in the early stage of CMB development,while the rate of forestry and grass coverage is the most important in the middle and late stages by the influenced result analysis.Therefore,this paper puts forward some corresponding stage suggestions on the prevention and control of socio-ecological environmental risks during the CMB development.In the early stage of CMB development,the ratio of investment in prevention and construction should be increased.In the middle stage,it is very important to reduce the damage of vegetation regions and to improve the reliability of machinery and equipment;in the late stage,the investment in prevention and construction should be increased steadily and the recovery of damaged vegetation areas should be focused on. 展开更多
关键词 Coalbed methane development Social ecological environment risk Core indicator Scenario simulation
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Domain ontology driven composable simulation framework
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作者 陈欣 段枫 张英潮 《Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology(New Series)》 EI CAS 2012年第4期49-54,共6页
The simulation composability is one of important development directions in simulation domain. The key issue is the semantic composability. Currently there is no feasible approach to realize the effective semantic repr... The simulation composability is one of important development directions in simulation domain. The key issue is the semantic composability. Currently there is no feasible approach to realize the effective semantic representation and composition of simulation components. Based on domain knowledge and Web Ontology Language (OWL), this paper proposes a composable simulation framework, which includes conceptual model semantics, model components semantics, model framework semantics, and simulation scenario semantics. Additionally, all the semantics are utilized in the model components development process, the simulation system development process, and the simulation system execution process respectively. The consistency checking among those semantics is also proposed. The detailed mapping processes between different semantic models can help to build the domain ontology driven composable simulation system. 展开更多
关键词 domain ontology COMPOSABILITY simulation components conceptual model simulation scenario
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Description method of conceptual model based on the ontology 被引量:1
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作者 陈欣 段枫 张英潮 《Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology》 EI CAS 2012年第4期510-517,共8页
The conceptual model is the first time abstraction ceptual model description method based on the UML and the of the real world. The traditional con- text usually has the semantic ambiguity problem. The formal descript... The conceptual model is the first time abstraction ceptual model description method based on the UML and the of the real world. The traditional con- text usually has the semantic ambiguity problem. The formal description method lacks the mechanism of integrity and consistency check. Therefore both of them cannot support the simulation scenario description and the model compos- ability. A simulation conceptual description method based on ontology is put forward. According to the OWL language which was put forward by the W3C organization, a conceptual model description language is established. The OWL language semantic element in the description function in the mili- tary conceptual model is introduced. Then two layers of the military conceptual model framework are built up based on the general ontology and the domain ontology. In the general ontology, the class and property definition are given. While in the domain ontology, they are extended and a relat- ed example is given. The technique advantages of our method include the mechanism of conceptual model consistency and integrity check, the support of composable simulation models, and automatic creation of simulation scenario. 展开更多
关键词 conceptual model ONTOLOGY web ontology language (OWL) simulation scenario
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A Physics‑Based Seismic Risk Assessment of the Qujiang Fault:From Dynamic Rupture to Disaster Estimation
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作者 Yilong Li Zijia Wang +2 位作者 Zhenguo Zhang Yuhao Gu Houyun Yu 《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第1期165-177,共13页
This study achieved the construction of earthquake disaster scenarios based on physics-based methods-from fault dynamic rupture to seismic wave propagation-and then population and economic loss estimations.The physics... This study achieved the construction of earthquake disaster scenarios based on physics-based methods-from fault dynamic rupture to seismic wave propagation-and then population and economic loss estimations.The physics-based dynamic rupture and strong ground motion simulations can fully consider the three-dimensional complexity of physical parameters such as fault geometry,stress field,rock properties,and terrain.Quantitative analysis of multiple seismic disaster scenarios along the Qujiang Fault in western Yunnan Province in southwestern China based on different nucleation locations was achieved.The results indicate that the northwestern segment of the Qujiang Fault is expected to experience significantly higher levels of damage compared to the southeastern segment.Additionally,there are significant variations in human losses,even though the economic losses are similar across different scenarios.Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture,Chuxiong Yi Autonomous Prefecture,Yuxi City,Honghe Hani and Yi Autonomous Prefecture,and Wenshan Zhuang and Miao Autonomous Prefecture were identified as at medium to high seismic risks,with Yuxi and Honghe being particularly vulnerable.Implementing targeted earthquake prevention measures in Yuxi and Honghe will significantly mitigate the potential risks posed by the Qujiang Fault.Notably,although the fault is within Yuxi,Honghe is likely to suffer the most severe damage.These findings emphasize the importance of considering rupture directivity and its influence on ground motion distribution when assessing seismic risk. 展开更多
关键词 Earthquake disaster loss estimation Physics-based earthquake scenario simulation Qujiang Fault Rupture directivity Seismic risk assessment
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Ecosystem carbon storage under different scenarios of land use change in Qihe catchment,China 被引量:12
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作者 ZHU Wenbo ZHANG Jingjing +1 位作者 CUI Yaoping ZHU Lianqi 《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 SCIE CSCD 2020年第9期1507-1522,共16页
Regional land use change is the main cause of the ecosystem carbon storage changes by affecting emission and sink process.However,there has been little research on the influence of land use changes for ecosystem carbo... Regional land use change is the main cause of the ecosystem carbon storage changes by affecting emission and sink process.However,there has been little research on the influence of land use changes for ecosystem carbon storage at both temporal and spatial scales.For this study,the Qihe catchment in the southern part of the Taihang Mountains was taken as an example;its land use change from 2005 to 2015 was analyzed,the Markov-CLUE-S composite model was used to predict land use patterns in 2025 under natural growth,cultivated land protection and ecological conservation scenario,and the land use data were used to evaluate ecosystem carbon storage under different scenarios for the recent 10-year interval and the future based on the carbon storage module of the In VEST model.The results show the following:(1) the ecosystem carbon storage and average carbon density of Qihe catchment were 3.16×107 t and 141.9 t/ha,respectively,and decreased by 0.07×107 t and 2.89 t/ha in the decade evaluated.(2) During 2005–2015,carbon density mainly decreased in low altitude areas.For high altitude area,regions with increased carbon density comprised a similar percentage to regions with decreased carbon density.The significant increase of the construction areas in the middle and lower reaches of Qihe and the degradation of upper reach woodland were core reasons for carbon density decrease.(3) For 2015–2025,under natural growth scenario,carbon storage and carbon density also significantly decrease,mainly due to the decrease of carbon sequestration capacity in low altitude areas;under cultivated land protection scenario,the decrease of carbon storage and carbon density will slow down,mainly due to the increase of carbon sequestration capacity in low altitude areas;under ecological conservation scenario,carbon storage and carbon density significantly increase and reach 3.19×107 t and 143.26 t/ha,respectively,mainly in regions above 1100 m in altitude.Ecological conservation scenario can enhance carbon sequestration capacity but cannot effectively control the reduction of cultivated land areas.Thus,land use planning of research areas should consider both ecological conservation and cultivated land protection scenarios to increase carbon sink and ensure the cultivated land quality and food safety. 展开更多
关键词 land use Markov-CLUE-S composite model InVEST model carbon storage scenario simulation Qihe catchment
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Assessing impacts of different land use scenarios on water budget of Fuhe River,China using SWAT model 被引量:4
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作者 Tao Can Chen Xiaoling +3 位作者 Lu Jianzhong Philip W.Gassman Sauvage Sabine Sanchez Pérez José-Miguel 《International Journal of Agricultural and Biological Engineering》 SCIE EI CAS 2015年第3期95-109,共15页
The Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)model was used to assess the impacts of different land use scenarios on hydrological processes in the Fuhe watershed in Poyang Lake Basin,East China.A total of 12 model paramete... The Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)model was used to assess the impacts of different land use scenarios on hydrological processes in the Fuhe watershed in Poyang Lake Basin,East China.A total of 12 model parameters were calibrated with observed monthly runoff data for 1982-1988 and validated for 1991-1998 for baseline conditions.The baseline test results of R2 and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency(NSE)values ranged between 0.88 and 0.94 across the calibration and validation periods,indicating that SWAT accurately replicated the Fuhe watershed streamflow.Several different land use scenarios were then simulated with the model,focusing on the impacts of land use change on the hydrology of the watershed.The results of hypothetical scenario simulations revealed that surface runoff declined while groundwater recharge and evapotranspiration(ET)increased,as forest land,agriculture land and/or grassland areas increased,as well as when paddy field and urban areas decreased.These results further showed that forest land has a higher capacity to conserve the water as compared to pasture land.The results of the real scenario simulations revealed that urbanization is the strongest contributor to changes in surface runoff,water yield,and ET.Urbanization can be considered as a potential major environmental stressor controlling hydrological components. 展开更多
关键词 SWAT model land use streamflow water budget scenario simulation Poyang Lake Fuhe watershed
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China's Macroeconomic Outlook and Risk Assessment: Counterfactual Analysis, Policy Simulation, and Long-Term Governance- A Summary of Annual Report (2015-2016) 被引量:7
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作者 Kevin X. D. Huang Guoqiang Tian 《Frontiers of Economics in China-Selected Publications from Chinese Universities》 2016年第2期173-191,共19页
Abstract This summary report highlights the confluence of continued downward pressures and deflation scares in the face of looming uncertainty in China's key macroeconomic landscapes. Counterfactual analyses and poli... Abstract This summary report highlights the confluence of continued downward pressures and deflation scares in the face of looming uncertainty in China's key macroeconomic landscapes. Counterfactual analyses and policy simulations are conducted, in addition to benchmark forecasts, based on IAR-CMM model and taking into account both cyclical and secular factors. Economic deceleration is projected to continue in the short to medium term, with real GDP growth declining to 6.3% (5.5% using more reliable instead of official data) in 2016 and facing a significant risk of sliding further down in 2017. Five key factors contributing to the weak outlook, additional to frictions and impediments associated with economic transition/restructuring and lackluster domestic/external demands, are identified, including: lack of new growth/ development engine, exhaustion of government-led driving force, the crowding-out of private sectors by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with excess capacity/capital overhang, nonperforming government sectors and officials, and twist or misinterpretation of the "New Normal." A root cause of these problems, lying with sluggishness in China's transformation into a market based economy, has to do with overpowered government but underpowered market in resource allocation and government underperformance in enforcing integrity and transparency in the marketplace and in providing public goods and services. At the nexus between inclusive growth and institutional transformation are market oriented and rule of law governed structural reforms and harmonious development. As such, fundamental institutional reforms that dialectically balance demand and supply side factors and properly weigh short run stabilization against long run development should be elevated to the top of the agenda. 展开更多
关键词 macroeconomic forecast risk assessment policy simulation alternative scenarios long-term governance
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Economic and employment effects of China's power transition based on input‒output and scenario simulation 被引量:1
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作者 Dong SUN Yan-Yan LIU +2 位作者 Xiao-Wen YANG Liang-Qiu LYU Jia-Hai YUAN 《Advances in Climate Change Research》 SCIE CSCD 2022年第5期721-728,共8页
With high carbon emission,the low-carbon transition of power sector will be critical for China to achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.The power transition will have an impact on the economy and empl... With high carbon emission,the low-carbon transition of power sector will be critical for China to achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.The power transition will have an impact on the economy and employment through the value chain.Quantifying the impact is important for China's future energy and welfare policies.This study adopts input‒output model to analyze the impact on economy and employment based on accelerated and slow power transition scenarios.The results show that the low-carbon power transition will have a negative impact on coal power and coal mining and washing sectors,while a positive impact on machine manufacturing and equipment sector.Low-carbon power transition will have a positive economic and employment effect to promote inclusive growth.By 2060,economic output will increase by about 8.50 trillion CNY,value-added by about 3.39 trillion CNY,and employment will increase by about 3.74 million.Although slower coal power transition can stabilize the economic and employment effect in the short and medium run,accelerating the power transition will produce more positive effect and lower job losses by coal power in the long run.By 2060,accelerating transition will boost output by 8.21%,value-added by 8.20%and jobs by 7.97%.Accordingly,the government should establish an all-round just low-carbon transition mechanism. 展开更多
关键词 Low-carbon power transition Input-output model Scenario simulation Economic effect Employment effect
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Spatial identification and scenario simulation of the ecological transition zones under the climate change in China
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作者 FAN Zemeng 《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 SCIE CSCD 2021年第4期497-517,共21页
Explicitly identifying the spatial distribution of ecological transition zones(ETZs)and simulating their response to climate scenarios is of significance in understanding the response and feedback of ecosystems to glo... Explicitly identifying the spatial distribution of ecological transition zones(ETZs)and simulating their response to climate scenarios is of significance in understanding the response and feedback of ecosystems to global climate change.In this study,a quantitative spatial identification method was developed to assess ETZ distribution in terms of the improved Holdridge life zone(iHLZ)model.Based on climate observations collected from 782 weather stations in China in the T0(1981–2010)period,and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(IPCC CMIP5)RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5 climate scenario data in the T1(2011–2040),T2(2041–2070),and T3(2071–2100)periods,the spatial distribution of ETZs and their response to climate scenarios in China were simulated in the four periods of T0,T1,T2,and T3.Additionally,a spatial shift of mean center model was developed to quantitatively calculate the shift direction and distance of each ETZ type during the periods from T0 to T3.The simulated results revealed 41 ETZ types in China,accounting for 18%of the whole land area.Cold temperate grassland/humid forest and warm temperate arid forest(564,238.5 km~2),cold temperate humid forest and warm temperate arid/humid forest(566,549.75 km~2),and north humid/humid forest and cold temperate humid forest(525,750.25 km~2)were the main ETZ types,accounting for 35%of the total ETZ area in China.Between 2010 and 2100,the area of cold temperate desert shrub and warm temperate desert shrub/thorn steppe ETZs were projected to increase at a rate of 4%per decade,which represented an increase of 3604.2,10063.1,and 17,242 km~2 per decade under the RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5 scenarios,respectively.The cold ETZ was projected to transform to the warm humid ETZ in the future.The average shift distance of the mean center in the north wet forest and cold temperate desert shrub/thorn grassland ETZs was generally larger than that of other ETZs,with the mean center moving to the northeast and the shift distance being more than 150 km during the periods from T0 to T3.In addition,with a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation,the ETZs in northern China displayed a shifting northward trend,while the area of ETZs in southern China decreased gradually,and their mean center moved to high-altitude areas.The effects of climate change on ETZs presented an increasing trend in China,especially in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. 展开更多
关键词 ecological transition zone mean center spatial identification model scenario simulation China
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气候与土地利用变化对金沙江流域径流影响 被引量:7
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作者 陈启会 陈华 +4 位作者 张俊 侯雨坤 沈明希 陈杰 许崇育 《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 SCIE CSCD 2020年第1期85-102,共18页
The climate change and Land Use/Land Cover(LULC)change both have an important impact on the rainfall-runoff processes.How to quantitatively distinguish and predict the impacts of the above two factors has been a hot s... The climate change and Land Use/Land Cover(LULC)change both have an important impact on the rainfall-runoff processes.How to quantitatively distinguish and predict the impacts of the above two factors has been a hot spot and frontier issue in the field of hydrology and water resources.In this research,the SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)model was established for the Jinsha River Basin,and the method of scenarios simulation was used to study the runoff response to climate change and LULC change.Furthermore,the climate variables exported from 7 typical General Circulation Models(GCMs)under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios were bias corrected and input into the SWAT model to predict runoff in 2017-2050.Results showed that:(1)During the past 57 years,the annual average precipitation and temperature in the Jinsha River Basin both increased significantly while the rising trend of runoff was far from obvious.(2)Compared with the significant increase of temperature in the Jinsha River Basin,the LULC change was very small.(3)During the historical period,the LULC change had little effect on the hydrological processes in the basin,and climate change was one of the main factors affecting runoff.(4)In the context of global climate change,the precipitation,temperature and runoff in the Jinsha River Basin will rise in 2017-2050 compared with the historical period.This study provides significant references to the planning and management of large-scale hydroelectric bases at the source of the Yangtze River. 展开更多
关键词 Jinsha River Basin SWAT model climate change LULC change scenario simulation GCM
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多因素耦合下三峡库区土地利用未来情景模拟(英文) 被引量:4
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作者 邵景安 党永峰 +1 位作者 王威 张仕超 《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 SCIE CSCD 2018年第12期1907-1932,共26页
Model simulation and scenario change analysis are the core contents of the future land-use change(LUC) study. In this paper, land use status data of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region(TGRR) in 1990 was used as base... Model simulation and scenario change analysis are the core contents of the future land-use change(LUC) study. In this paper, land use status data of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region(TGRR) in 1990 was used as base data. The relationship between driving factors and land-use change was analyzed by using binary logistic stepwise regression analysis, based on which land use in 2010 was simulated by CLUE-S model. After the inspection and determination of main parameters impacting on driving factors of land use in the TGRR, land use of this region in 2030 was simulated based on four scenarios, including natural growth, food security, migration-related construction and ecological conservation. The results were shown as follows:(1) The areas under ROC curves of land-use types(LUTs) were both greater than 0.8 under the analysis and inspection of binary logistic model. These LUTs include paddy field, dryland, woodland, grassland, construction land and water area. Therefore, it has a strong interpretation ability of driving factors on land use, which can be used in the estimation of land use probability distribution.(2) The Kappa coefficients, verified from the result of land-use simulation in 2010, were shown of paddy field 0.9, dryland 0.95, woodland 0.97, grassland 0.84, construction land 0.85 and water area 0.77. So the results of simulation could meet the needs of future simulation and prediction.(3) The results of multi-scenario simulation showed a spatial competitive relationship between different LUTs, and an influence on food security, migration-related construction and ecological conservation in the TGRR, including some land use actions such as the large-scale conversion from paddy field to dryland, the occupation on cultivated land, woodland and grassland for rapid expansion of construction land, the reclamation of woodland and grassland into cultivated land, returning steep sloping farmland back into woodland and grassland. Therefore, it is necessary to balance the needs of various aspects in land use optimization, to achieve the coordination between socio-economy and ecological environment. 展开更多
关键词 land use CLUE-S model driving factor scenario simulation Three Gorges Reservoir Region
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预测和评估黄土高原多情景土地利用模拟下NPP的变化 被引量:4
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作者 江笑薇 白建军 《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 SCIE CSCD 2021年第7期977-996,共20页
Land use/cover change(LUCC)is a major factor affecting net primary production(NPP).According to the LUCC of the Loess Plateau from 2005 to 2015,the LUCC patterns in 2025 in three scenarios were predicted by using the ... Land use/cover change(LUCC)is a major factor affecting net primary production(NPP).According to the LUCC of the Loess Plateau from 2005 to 2015,the LUCC patterns in 2025 in three scenarios were predicted by using the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model.Furthermore,taking the average NPP of various land use/cover types in 16 years as the reference scale,the changes in NPP in multi-scenario simulations are predicted and analyzed,and the impact of different land use/cover transfers on NPP is quantified.The results are as follows:(1)The land use/cover changes greatly in the baseline and fast development scenarios,and changes relatively little in the ecological protection scenarios.(2)The changes in NPP in different scenarios reflected the significant difference in the ecological protection effect.All the three scenarios promote an NPP increase,but the ecological protection scenario can promote NPP increases the most.(3)The changes in NPP caused by LUCC in the three scenarios reflected the significant difference in the various land use/cover types protection effect.Analyzing and predicting NPP changes in multi-scenario LUCC simulations in the future can provide a theoretical basis for decision makers to judge the future changes in ecological environments and ecological protection effects against different policy backgrounds. 展开更多
关键词 net primary production(NPP) scenario simulation land use/cover change(LUCC) Loess Plateau
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PBL融合情景模拟在儿童行为测听教学中的应用
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作者 董瑞娟 亓贝尔 +1 位作者 李海云 刘博 《国际耳鼻咽喉头颈外科杂志》 2024年第3期179-181,184,共4页
随着我国新生儿听力筛查工作的普及,许多听力障碍儿童得以在早期被发现并获得及时的诊断与干预。但由于儿童在年龄、智力、社交能力和语言发展方面的特殊性,使得儿童行为听力评估面临着比成人更多的挑战和困难。本文旨在探讨如何将问题... 随着我国新生儿听力筛查工作的普及,许多听力障碍儿童得以在早期被发现并获得及时的诊断与干预。但由于儿童在年龄、智力、社交能力和语言发展方面的特殊性,使得儿童行为听力评估面临着比成人更多的挑战和困难。本文旨在探讨如何将问题导向教学法与情景模拟教学法相结合,以提升听力与言语康复学专业本科生的教育质量。通过提出与儿童行为测听相关的问题,激发学生参与讨论和研究,从而深化对理论知识和评估技巧的理解。同时,通过引入真实案例和实践经验,使学生能够在模拟的测听环境中将理论与实践相结合,有效提升专业技能。此外,本文还融入思政元素,强调培养学生的社会责任感和职业道德,促使他们在专业技能提升的同时,也能够尊重患者,善于沟通,提升综合素养和人文修养,为未来成为合格的听力和言语康复专业人员打下坚实的基础。 展开更多
关键词 医院 教学(Hospitals Teaching) 儿童听力学(paediatric audiology) 基于问题教学法(problem-based learning) 情景模拟教学法(scenario simulation teaching)
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