Impacts of 1.5℃ global warming on hydrological conditions of navigation along the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage

Arctic navigability is crucial to the global economy and landscape,while there is an omission in understanding how Arctic navigability changes as a function of 1.5℃ of the Paris Agreement.This study investigated the impact of 1.5℃ global warming above the preindustrial level on sea ice conditions and accessibility of the Northern Sea Route(NSR)and Northwest Passage(NWP)with the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System and new risk demarcation criteria.The Arctic is colder on the Canadian side than on the European side under 1.5℃ warming.Sea ice is mostly less than three years old,and the younger,thinner and less concentrated ice is mainly in the seas along the NSR.Ships above Polar Class(PC)6 might be unimpeded along two passages all the year.Besides,the NSR and NWP have great potential for PC6 ships in October-December,while it is only the NSR for PC7 ships.Caution is still required when navigating the western East Siberian Sea,its surrounding straits,and the Parry Channel.These changes in hydrological conditions are important for global shipping,and this work is helpful for supporting coordinated international decision-making.

Navigability of the Northern Sea Route for Arc7 ice-class vessels during winter and spring sea-ice conditions

Sea ice hinders the navigability of the Arctic,especially in winter and spring.However,three Arc7 ice-class Liquefied Natural Gas carrying vessels safely transited the Northern Sea Route(NSR)without icebreaker assistance in January 2021.More and more Arc7 ice-class vessels are putting into the transit services in the NSR.Therefore,it is necessary to analyze sea-ice conditions and their impact on navigation during wintertime,and the future navigability of Arc7 ice-class vessels along the NSR during winter and spring.Based on sea ice datasets from satellite observations and a model using data assimilation,we explored the sea-ice conditions and their impact during the first three successful commercial voyages through the NSR in winter.In addition,we analyzed the sea ice variation and estimated navigability for Arc7 ice-class vessels in the NSR from January to June of the years 2021–2050 using future projections of the sea-ice cover by the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)models under two emission scenarios(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5).The results reveal lower sea ice thickness and similar sea ice concentration during these three transits relative to the past 42 years(from 1979 to 2020).We found the thickness has a larger impact on the vessels’speeds than sea ice concentration.Very likely sea ice thickness played a larger role than the sea ice concentration for the successful transit of the NSR in winter 2021.Future projections suggest sea ice thickness will decrease further in most regions of the NSR from January to June under all scenarios enabling increased navigability of the NSR for Arc7 ice-class vessels.Such vessels could transit through the NSR from January to June under all scenarios by 2050,while some areas near the coast of East Siberian Sea remain inaccessible for Arc7 ice-class vessels in spring(April and May).These findings can support the strategic planning of shipping along the NSR in winter and spring.

硬帆辅助推进散货船的稳定性和动力性能综合分析

Large size vessels sailing in continuous level ice and broken ice of high concentration are mostly assisted by icebreakers.This is done in order to provide for fast transportation through the North Sea Route and safe operation in extreme ice conditions.Currently,new large size gas and oil carriers and container ships are being designed and built with beams much greater than the beams of existing icebreakers.At the same time,no mathematical description exists for the breaking mechanism of ice channel edges,when such vessels move under icebreaker escort.This paper suggests a simple method for assessment of the ice resistance in the case of a large ship running in an icebreaker channel;the method is based on modification of well-known semi-empirical methods for calculation of the ice resistance to ships in level and broken ice.The main feature of the proposed calculation scheme consists in that different methods are applied to estimate the ice resistance in broken ice and due to breaking of level ice edges.The combination of these methods gives a deliverable ice resistance of a large size vessel moving under icebreaker assistance in a newly made ice channel.In general,proposed method allows to define the speed of a carrier moving in an ice channel behind a modern linear icebreaker and could be applied at the ship design stage and during development of the marine transportation system.The paper also discusses the ways for further refinement of the assessment procedure suggested.

近代日本“北进”战略与“北鲜三港”开发

日本在经过明治维新的系列改革后,实现了政治、经济、文化的近代化,但也开始“不甘处岛国之境”,逐步走上独霸亚洲、称雄世界的扩张道路。这一对外侵略扩张政策的具体实施,曾出现过“南进”和“北进”两种战略主张。①“北进”战略以朝鲜、中国东北和俄国的远东地区为目标,首先通过吞并朝鲜来“粘着大陆”②,进而攻占中国东北,染指中国腹地,最终向俄国的远东地区扩张。在这个过程中,位于朝鲜北部的“北鲜三港”清津、罗津、雄基曾对“北进”战略的推进产生过重要影响。

China’s policies on Polar Silk Road and impacts on trade and energy use in Arctic region

China has recently established a new policy for the energy use of the Arctic region.Even though it is not a part of the Arctic Council,China has started a series of partnerships with public and private entities of countries that are geographically and politically members of the Arctic polar Circle.The project has to be carried out within the“Belt and Road Initiative”,by establishing new trade routes between China and the rest of the world.The study aims at assessing the fuel consumption for the Arctic shipping routes and comparing them to the traditional ones,in terms of cost reduction and time efficiency.Moreover,a brief consideration on oil&gas arctic fields has been carried out,in order to understand how the energy policy of China is changing the resource utilization.

Lessons and prospects of Sino-Russian Arctic cooperation

The strategic partnership between China and Russia is creating solid ground for the cooperative development of the Arctic.These two states’joint development of the Northern Sea Route will not only provide additional impulse to the exportoriented economy of China and allow further diversification of supply routes to China,but will also promote investment into the infrastructure and economic growth of Russian northern territories.Climate change in the Arctic has forced China and Russia to acknowledge the sustainable use of the Arctic.On the one hand,exploration of the region should not harm indigenous people’s rights and should help this population improve their standard of living by providing qualified healthcare and opportunities for commercial fulfillment of traditional crafts.On the other hand,this exploration should also include elimination of harmful anthropogenic impact and provide support for environment self-restoration.Sino-Russian Arctic cooperation will help humans discover eco-friendly approaches to use Arctic resources,promote rational use of the Arctic and inspire sustainable development of the region.

TRADE DEPENDENCIES AND TRANSACTION COSTS: THE OC-CUPATION OF DECELEA HIGHLIGHTS BOTH THE BENEFITS AND THE DRAWBACKS OF A MARITIME ECONOMY

Thucydides asserts that the occupation of Decelea by the Spartans in 413 BC made the grain supply for Athens costly by forcing the transport from land onto the sea.This calls into question the well-established consensus that sea transport was far cheaper than land transport.This paper contends that the cost of protecting supply lines-specifically the expenses associated with the warships which escorted the supply ships-rendered the grain transported on the new route exceptionally costly.In this paper,the benefits and drawbacks of a maritime economy,including transaction costs,trade dependencies,and the capabilities of warships and supply ships are discussed.

Light from space illuminating the polar silk road

The rapid decline of Arctic sea ice has been reminding us the significant impacts caused by global warming.However,the other side of the coin is that this opens a window to utilize the Arctic sea routes in the summer seasons,bringing remarkable economic benefits for ocean transportation between Asia and Europe.However,commercial vessels with low ice classes must tackle substantial environmental challenges in the Arctic sea routes,particularly those caused by variable sea ice,even in the melting seasons.Therefore,the science-based support for shipping safety in the Arctic sea routes is being given more prominence.Emerging satellite remote sensing technology plays a critical role in environmental monitoring in the Arctic.This paper reviews state-of-the-art satellite observations on monitoring sea ice and potential applications on supporting shipping activities in the Arctic Ocean.Moreover,we introduced a recently developed system based on satellite observations to support the safe transportation of Chinese cargo vessels in the Arctic northern sea route,demonstrating the efforts by both the science and business communities to promote the development of the polar silk road.