Greenland Ice Sheet Contribution to Future Global Sea Level Rise based on CMIP5 Models

Sea level rise （SLR） is one of the major socioeconomic risks associated with global warming. Mass losses from the Greenland ice sheet （GrIS） will be partially responsible for future SLR, although there are large uncertainties in modeled climate and ice sheet behavior. We used the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS （Simulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets） driven by climate projections from 20 models in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） to estimate the GrlS contribution to global SLR. Based on the outputs of the 20 models, it is estimated that the GrIS will contribute 0-16 （0-27） cm to global SLR by 2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathways （RCP） 4.5 （RCP 8.5） scenarios. The projected SLR increases further to 7-22 （7-33） cm with 2~basal sliding included. In response to the results of the multimodel ensemble mean, the ice sheet model projects a global SLR of 3 cm and 7 cm （10 cm and 13 cm with 2~basal sliding） under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. In addition, our results suggest that the uncertainty in future sea level projection caused by the large spread in climate projections could be reduced with model-evaluation and the selective use of model outputs.

Persistently explore new understandings of Greenland Ice Sheet ablation

Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are the largest potential contributors to global sea level rise(GSLR),amounting to more than 64 m of sea level equivalence(SLE).Between the two,Greenland Ice Sheet(GrIS)alone comprises about 7 mSLE,with a much faster speed of ablation than the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Last deglacial relative sea level variations in Antarctica derived from glacial isostatic adjustment modelling

We present relative sea level （RSL） curves in Antarctica derived from glacial isostatic adjustment （GIA）predictions based on the melting scenarios of the Antarctic ice sheet since the Last Glacial Maximum （LGM）given in previous works.Simultaneously,Holocene-age RSL observations obtained at the raised beaches along the coast of Antarctica are shown to be in agreement with the GIA predictions.The differences from previously published ice-loading models regarding the spatial distribution and total mass change of the melted ice are significant.These models were also derived from GIA modelling; the variations can be attributed to the lack of geological and geographical evidence regarding the history of crustal movement due to ice sheet evolution.Next,we summarise the previously published ice load models and demonstrate the RSL curves based on combinations of different ice and earth models.The RSL curves calculated by GIA models indicate that the model dependence of both the ice and earth models is significantly large at several sites where RSL observations were obtained.In particular,GIA predictions based on the thin lithospheric thickness show the spatial distributions that are dependent on the melted ice thickness at each sites.These characteristics result from the short-wavelength deformation of the Earth.However,our predictions strongly suggest that it is possible to find the average ice model despite the use of the different models of lithospheric thickness.By sea level and crustal movement observations,we can deduce the geometry of the post-LGM ice sheets in detail and remove the GIA contribution from the crustal deformation and gravity change observed by space geodetic techniques,such as GPS and GRACE,for the estimation of the Antarctic ice mass change associated with recent global warming.

An Overlooked Term in Assessment of the Potential Sea-Level Rise from a Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

As to sea level rise (SLR) contribution, melting and setting afloat make no difference for land based ice. Melting of West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) into water is impossible in the upcoming several centuries, whereas breaking and partially afloat is likely as long as sea waters find a pathway to the bottom of those ice sectors with basal elevation below sea level. In this sense WAIS may be disintegrated in a future warming climate. We reassess the potential contribution to eustatic sea level from a collapse of WAIS and find that previous assessments have overlooked a contributor: slope instability after the cementing ice is removed. Over loading ice has a buttressing effect on slope movements the same way ice shelves hinder the flow of non-floating coastal ice. A sophisticated landslide model estimates a 9-mm eustatic SLR contribution from subsequent landslides.

Evaluation of vertical crustal movements and sea level changes around Greenland from GPS and tide gauge observations

To better monitor the vertical crustal movements and sea level changes around Greenland,multiple data sources were used in this paper,including global positioning system(GPS),tide gauge,satellite gravimetry,satellite altimetry,glacial isostatic adjustment(GIA).First,the observations of more than 50 GPS stations from the international GNSS service(IGS)and Greenland network(GNET)in 2007–2018 were processed and the common mode error(CME)was eliminated with using the principal component analysis(PCA).The results show that all GPS stations show an uplift trend and the stations in southern Greenland have a higher vertical speed.Second,by deducting the influence of GIA,the impact of current Gr IS mass changes on GPS stations was analysed,and the GIA-corrected vertical velocity of the GPS is in good agreement with the vertical velocity obtained by gravity recovery and climate experiment(GRACE).Third,the absolute sea level change around Greenland at 4 gauge stations was obtained by combining relative sea level derived from tide gauge observations and crustal uplift rates derived from GPS observations,and was validated by sea level products of satellite altimetry.The results show that although the mass loss of Gr IS can cause considerable global sea level rise,eustatic movements along the coasts of Greenland are quite complex under different mechanisms of sea level changes.

Thermal convection in ice sheets: New data, new tests

Thermal convection in the Antarctic Ice Sheet was proposed in 1970. Demonstrating its existence proved to be elusive. In 2009, tributaries to ice streams were postulated as the surface expression of underlying thermal convection rolls aligned in directions of advective ice flow. Two definitive tests of this hypothesis are now possible, using highly accurate ice elevations and velocities provided by the European, Japanese, and Canadian Space Agencies that allow icestream tributaries and their velocities to be mapped. These tests are 1) measuring lowering of tributary surfaces to see if lowering is due only to advective ice thinning, or also requires lowering en masse in the broad descending part of convective flow, and 2) measuring transverse surface ice velocities to see if ice entering tributaries from the sides increases while crossing lateral shear zones, as would be required if this flow is augmented by convective flow ascending in the narrow side shear zones and diverted into tributaries by advective ice flow. If (1) and (2) are applied to tributaries converging on Byrd Glacier, the same measurements can be conducted when tributaries pack together to become “flow stripes” down Byrd Glacier and onto the Ross Ice Shelf to see if (2) is reduced when lateral advection stops. This could determine if thermal convection remains active or shuts down as ice thins. Thermal convection in the Antarctic Ice Sheet would raise three questions. Can it cause the ice sheet to self-destruct as convective flow turns on and off? Does it render invalid climate records extracted at depth from ice cores? Can the ice sheet be studied as a miniature mantle analogous in some respects to Earth’s mantle?

Impact of the formation and ablation of Antarctic ice sheet on the global geoid and sea level

It is convenient to investigate the gravimetry using a harmonic spheric function for the description of the distribution and thickness of the Antarctic ice sheet. The gravitational theory and the Stokes' harmonic spheric function formula were used to determine the impact of the Antarctic ice cap on the global geoid. The Antarctic ice cap is formed from the condensation of seawater vapour whose mass is equal to a layer of seawater 59 m thick of covering the earth's surface, i.e. 2.7×10 19 kg. This will cause the global averaged geoid to decrease for around 23 m. The authors' computations show that the Antractic ice cap has a great impact on the global geoid, which increases (+) in some regions, but decreases (-) in other reigions. The geoid is +115 m, -37 m and +8 m at the South Pole, the 25°S parallel and the North Pole, respectively. If the Antarctic ice cap melts completely, on the rigid Earth's surface the seawater and geoid will return to its original position (and height) due to the balancing force of the fluid. Since the crust is almost in a state of isostasy, assuming that the crust is an elastic solid and the mantle is an incompressible fluid, the load of seawater will deflect the crust and drive the mantle material to flow. The material above the isostatic surface compensates mutually. If the densities of the mantle and seawater are 3270 kg/m 3 and 1030 kg/m 3, respectively, then the variation in the elevation of the continent is only 2.8 m with respect to the sea level after the Antarctic ice cap melts;it is not larger than that estimated by some people.It is worth noting that the above results were derived from an ideal Earth model. In the real Earth, the mantle and crust are visco elastic.

极地冰盖物质平衡的最新进展与未来挑战

准确地探明冰盖物质平衡状况,对于研究全球变暖背景下海平面变化具有重要的意义,自IPCC AR4(政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次报告)以来,极地冰盖物质平衡的研究取得了很大进展。本文总结并对比了用卫星测高(雷达测高和激光测高)、物质收支测量和重力测量等方法得到的冰盖物质平衡评估结果,综述了冰盖数值模拟研究在预测冰盖未来的变化趋势以及由此对海平面造成的影响等方面取得的进展,并立足于中国当前的极地冰盖物质平衡研究现状,提出了该研究所面临的挑战。

对全球海面变化均衡模式的改进

以J.A.Clark为代表的全球海面变化均衡模式为基础,讨论冰盖形或对地核运动的影响。数值计算表明,由于地核偏离地心的运动,不同海区大约有±1.54m的海面波动。把这个结果叠加在均衡模式的结果之上,会使预测的结果与所观察结果更为符合。

全球海面变化的两极冰盖模型

在Clark等(1976)提出的在粘弹性地球上全球海面变化的数值模型和笔者(1992)提出的一极冰盖质点模型的基础上,考虑冰盖在两极的实际分布,建立两极冰盖质点分布的数理模型。计算结果表明,一极模型中海面变化的的极值区在S极,而两极模型中海面变化极值区在南半球的中纬度地区。