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Seasonal freezing-thawing process and hydrothermal characteristics of soil on the Loess Plateau, China 被引量:3
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作者 CHOU Ya-ling WANG Li-jie 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2021年第11期3082-3098,共17页
In seasonally frozen soil regions,freezing-thawing action and hydrothermal effect have strong influence on physical and mechanical behavior of shallow soil.A field experiment on the Loess Plateau in Northwest China wa... In seasonally frozen soil regions,freezing-thawing action and hydrothermal effect have strong influence on physical and mechanical behavior of shallow soil.A field experiment on the Loess Plateau in Northwest China was carried out to analyze the freezing-thawing process and hydrothermal characteristics of shallow soil considering the climate influence.The results show that the maximum seasonal freezing depth under bare ground surface in this area is from 20 cm to 50 cm.The ground temperature shows a similar changing trend with air temperature,but it has lagged behind the air temperature,and the ground temperature amplitude exponentially decreases with the increase of soil depth.The seasonally frozen soil has experienced four typical stages:unfrozen period,alternate freezing period,freezing period and alternate thawing period.The freezing-thawing process is characterized by unidirectional freezing and bidirectional thawing.The water content of shallow soil is significantly affected by air temperature,evaporation and precipitation,and the soil water content shows a"low-high-low"changing trend with the increase of depth.The soil temperature and water content interact with each other,and are often coupled.The variation trend of soil moisture with time is consistent with the change trend of the ground temperature with time in each soil layer,andthe degree of consistency is higher in the near surface soil than that in the lower layer.Also,the spatial-temporal characteristics of soil moisture and temperature is that the volumetric water content and ground temperatureof near surface soil have strong variability,and the range valueKa and coefficient of variation Cvof soil water content and ground temperaturein different seasons show a decreasing trend with the increase of depth. 展开更多
关键词 seasonally frozen soil freezing-thawing process Hydrothermal characteristics Loess Plateau
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Response Relationship between the Seasonal Freezing-Thawing Process of Soil and Spatial Factor Changes in the Dayekou Basin of the Qilian Mountains 被引量:2
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作者 Yun Niu Jinling An 《Open Journal of Ecology》 2018年第8期417-431,共15页
Objective: In this study, the influence and response relationship between the seasonal freezing-thawing process of soil and the spatial factor changes in the management and utilization of water resource processes were... Objective: In this study, the influence and response relationship between the seasonal freezing-thawing process of soil and the spatial factor changes in the management and utilization of water resource processes were explored. Methods: The monitoring equipment in this study was arranged at different altitudes, gradients, and slope directions, such as the typical forest sample area in the Dayekou Basin of the Qilian Mountains. The spatial variation characteristics of the seasonal freezing-thawing process of the soil were analyzed, and a regression model was established. Results: 1) The results of this study determined that the rate of the soil’s freezing increased with the altitude in a trend of volatility. However, the rate of the thawing of the frozen soil was found to have an opposite trend. The variation degree of the freezing-thawing process increased with the altitude in a trend of volatility. The end time of the approximate soil freezing with altitude increased in a volatility trend ahead of schedule. However, the opposite was observed in the thawing rate of the frozen soil;2) The rate of the soil’s freezing under the mosses of the spruce forest at an altitude of 3028 m was found to be the lowest. However, in the sub-alpine scrub forest at an altitude of 3300 m, a maximum in the spatial ordering was observed, with an average of 1.9 cm·d-1. The thawing rate of the frozen soil in scrub-spruce forest at an altitude of 3300 m was found to be minimal. However, in the sunny slope grassland at an altitude of 2946 m, a maximum in the spatial ordering was observed, with an average of 1.5 cm·d-1. In the spatial ordering of the variation degree of the process of freezing-thawing with an average of 1.2, the scrub-grassland at an altitude of 2518 m was found to be the lowest, and the scrub-spruce forest at an altitude of 3195 m was also low;3) The soil freezing began on approximately October 20th, and the rate of soil freezing gradually became reduced. The arrival time of the frozen soil of up to 150 cm in depth in sub-alpine scrub forest was first observed at an altitude of 3028 m. However, the scrub-spruce forest at an altitude of 3100 m did not become frozen until approximately January 12th on average. Then, the thawing rate of the frozen soil increased gradually. The end time of the thawing was earliest observed in the sunny slope grassland at an altitude of 2946 m. However, the scrub-spruce forest at an altitude of 3100 m was found to be the last to thaw, and averaged approximately July 27th. The average durations of the freezing and thawing of the soil were 77 and 121 days, respectively, and the average duration of the entire process of freezing-thawing was 199 days;4) This study’s established regression models of the duration time of frozen soil’s thaw, and the rate of frozen soil’s thaw, all passed the R test of goodness of fit, F test of variance, and t test. Conclusions: The characteristics of the seasonal freezing-thawing process of the soil with the spatial changes were seasonal. However, the characteristics under the different spatial factor influences were not the same. 展开更多
关键词 freezing-thawing SPATIAL FACTOR seasonal Frozen SOIL Dayekou BASIN of the QILIAN Mountains
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Energy Budget over Seasonal Snow Surface at an Open Site and Beneath Forest Canopy Openness during the Snowmelt Period in Western Tianshan Mountains,China 被引量:1
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作者 LU Heng WEI Wen-shou +2 位作者 LIU Mingzhe HAN Xi HONG Wen 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2015年第2期298-312,共15页
In this study, meteorological factors and snowmelt rate at an open site on sunny slope(OPS) and beneath forest canopy openness on shady slope(BFC) were measured using an automatic weather station and snow lysimeter du... In this study, meteorological factors and snowmelt rate at an open site on sunny slope(OPS) and beneath forest canopy openness on shady slope(BFC) were measured using an automatic weather station and snow lysimeter during the snowmelt period in 2009, 2010 and 2013. The energy budget over snow surface was calculated according to these meteorological datasets. The analysis results indicated that the net shortwave radiation(K) and sensible heat flux(H) were energy sources, and the latent heat flux(LVE) was energy sinks of snow surfaces at all sites. The net longwave radiation(L) was energy sink at OPS and 80% BFC, but energy source at 20% BFC. The gain of K, H, and the loss of LVE at BFC were obviously lower than those at OPS. The L was the maximum difference of energy budget between snow surface at BFC and OPS. In warm and wet years, the most important factor of the energy budget variation at OPS was air humidity and the second mostimportant factor was air temperature. However, the ground surface temperature on the sunny slope was the most important factor for L and energy budget at BFC. With the increases in forest canopy openness and the slope of adjacent terrains, the influences of ground surface temperature on the sunny slope on L and the energy budget over snow surface at BFC increased, especially when the snow cover on the sunny slope melts completely. 展开更多
关键词 能量收支 森林冠层 天山西部 融雪 中国森林 网站 季节性 表面温度
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Seasonality Variability and Periodicities for Ultra-Deep Earthquakes Worldwide
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作者 Marilia Hagen Anibal Azevedo 《Open Journal of Earthquake Research》 2019年第1期1-18,共18页
Our last study found that deepest-depth earthquakes with larger magnitudes (M6 or above) showed seasonality, which is dependent on the area searched. The main results indicated strong evidence that the causes for the ... Our last study found that deepest-depth earthquakes with larger magnitudes (M6 or above) showed seasonality, which is dependent on the area searched. The main results indicated strong evidence that the causes for the delays in enhancements along the period investigated were due to the tectonics also, not only the season. Therefore, if the inquiry was about an area in Northern Hemisphere, the season in which the increases occurred is different than the season in the Southern Hemisphere. Also, higher latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere or around the Equator, displayed seasonality similarly where the tremors appear to increase during the Spring and Summer. This did not happen to the Southern Hemisphere where disturbances and anomalies occurred without showing much connection to the seasons in the analyzed period. However, some of the regions presented periodicities independent from the seasons. 展开更多
关键词 seasonS SUBDUCTION Zones Earthquakes periodICITY South HEMISPHERE
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基于seasonal-trend-loess方法的符号化时间序列网络 被引量:3
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作者 汪丽娜 成媛媛 臧臣瑞 《物理学报》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2019年第23期314-322,共9页
为了有效控制海量数据时间序列网络的规模并使得网络更贴近实际,符号化时间序列网络成为研究热点.结合周期性时间序列的seasonal-trend-loess方法和符号化转化方法,本文提出一种新的符号化时间序列建网方法.该方法考虑了单个数据值的状... 为了有效控制海量数据时间序列网络的规模并使得网络更贴近实际,符号化时间序列网络成为研究热点.结合周期性时间序列的seasonal-trend-loess方法和符号化转化方法,本文提出一种新的符号化时间序列建网方法.该方法考虑了单个数据值的状态又结合了序列的长远变化趋势.以符号模式为节点;依时间顺序推移,以节点间的邻接转换关系定义连边;根据转换方向和转换频次确定连边的方向和权重,建立有向加权网络.分别以航空旅客吞吐量时间序列和因特网流量时间序列为实验数据构建的两个时间序列网络,有明显差异的拓扑特征;进一步对移动通信语音时间序列做了实证分析,挖掘时间序列数据的本质规律. 展开更多
关键词 周期时间序列 seasonal-trend-loess方法 复杂网络 拓扑特征
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Shear strength of frozen clay under freezing-thawing cycles using triaxial tests 被引量:8
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作者 Wang Miao Meng Shangjiu +1 位作者 Sun Yiqiang Fu Haiqing 《Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration》 SCIE EI CSCD 2018年第4期761-769,共9页
Using a new low-temperature dynamic triaxial apparatus, the influence law of freezing-thawing cycles on clay shear strength is studied. In this research, the concept of correction coefficients of freezing-thawing cycl... Using a new low-temperature dynamic triaxial apparatus, the influence law of freezing-thawing cycles on clay shear strength is studied. In this research, the concept of correction coefficients of freezing-thawing cycles on clay static strength, cohesion and internal friction angles is proposed, and the change patterns, correction curves and regressive formulae of clay static strength, cohesion and internal friction angles under freezing-thawing cycles are given. The test results indicate that with increasing numbers of freezing-thawing cycles, the clay static strength and cohesion decrease exponentially but the internal friction angle increases exponentially. The performance of static strength, cohesion and internal friction angles are different with increasing numbers of freezing-thawing cycles, i.e., the static strength decreases constantly until about 30% of the initial static strength prior to the freezing-thawing cycling and then stays basically stable. After 5-7 freezing-thawing cycles, the cohesion decreases gradually to about 70% of the initial cohesion. The internal friction angle increases about 20% after the first freezing-thawing cycle, then increases gradually close to a stable value which is an increase of about 40% of the internal friction angle. The freezing-thawing process can increase the variation of the density of the soil samples; therefore, strict density discreteness standards of frozen soil sample preparation should be established to ensure the reliability of the test results. 展开更多
关键词 seasonally frozen soil freezing-thawing cycles COHESION internal friction angle correction coefficient
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A Study on the Chemical Compositions of the Jasminum Sambac (L. ) Aiton in Various Farming Seasons During the Blossom Period in Fuzhou Region
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作者 Guo Youjia, Dai Liang, Yang Lanping and Ren Qing (Fujian Institute of Reserch on the Structure of Matter, Academia sinica, Fuzhou, 350002) 《福建分析测试》 CAS 1998年第1期785-792,共8页
The chemical compositions of the head space,essential oil and absolute of jasmin flowers in different farming seasons during the blossom period in Fuzhou were reported in this paper.
关键词 chemical compesitions jasmin FLOWER FARMING seasonS blossom period GC/MS GC Fuzhou
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The Influence of Local Rainy and Dry Seasons on the Diurnal Temperature Range in Nigeria
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作者 Stanley I. Echebima Andrew A. Obafemi 《Atmospheric and Climate Sciences》 CAS 2023年第2期314-332,共19页
This study analyzed the impact of the local dry and rainy seasons on diurnal temperature range (DTR), for each major climatic zone of Nigeria namely the tropical monsoon, tropical savannah and semi-arid, using meteoro... This study analyzed the impact of the local dry and rainy seasons on diurnal temperature range (DTR), for each major climatic zone of Nigeria namely the tropical monsoon, tropical savannah and semi-arid, using meteorological data from thirteen observation stations for the period 1981 to 2021. DTR was computed from the difference of minimum temperature from maximum temperature and yearly and forty one years’ monthly averages of DTR and rainfall were computed and plotted in different graphs. The overall results from each climatic zone showed that DTR fluctuates with the seasons and there is an inverse relationship between DTR and rainfall whereby the value of DTR decreases as the rainy season approaches but increases as the rainy season departs ushering in the dry season or conversely DTR increases as the dry season approaches and decreases as the dry season departs ushering-in the rainy season. Secondly, the average yearly patterns of rainfall and DTR are roughly and oppositely shaped parabolas where the peak value of rainfall is diametrically opposite to the trough value of DTR and the least or nil volume of rainfall corresponds to the highest value of DTR. Thirdly, due to the yearly seasonal cycle of dry and rainy seasons in Nigeria coupled with the inverse relationship between DTR and Rainfall, the seasonal plot of DTR and rainfall is also cyclic in pattern with DTR cycle lagging 180 degrees with the rainfall cycle and the intersection of the two cycles represents the departure of one season and onset of another season while each half-cycle represents either the dry or rainy season. Fourthly, the dependence of DTR on any season at hand in Nigeria makes DTR season-forcing. This fourth result is underpinned by a result that showed that the 1981 and 2021 patterns of DTR and 1981 and 2021 patterns of rainfall when compared were similar, the differences were in the volume of rainfall which was due to climate change that has taken place over the four decades and which also impacted DTR since DTR varies inversely with rainfall. Finally and notwithstanding the common grounds of the results stated above, the result further showed that each climatic zone of Nigeria reacts differently to the local and global climate changes leading to the magnitude of DTR and the volume of rainfall being different across climatic zones, with rainfall volume and duration decreasing towards the arid North from the Coastal South while contrariwise DTR increases towards the arid North from the Coastal South. 展开更多
关键词 Dry season Rainy season Harmattan period Primary and Secondary Axes of a Graph
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近50年滇池流域汛期降水时空演变特征分析 被引量:1
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作者 邓丽仙 杨帆 +4 位作者 杨洋 李姣 赵兰兰 胡成龙 李长江 《水文》 CSCD 北大核心 2024年第2期113-120,127,共9页
以滇池流域1970—2020年汛期(5—10月)降水量资料为依据,利用地理信息技术,采用Mann-Kendall检验法、小波分析等方法,分析近50年来滇池流域汛期降水年际变化的趋势性、周期性以及集中度、集中期、降水中心和旱涝发生频率等演变特征。结... 以滇池流域1970—2020年汛期(5—10月)降水量资料为依据,利用地理信息技术,采用Mann-Kendall检验法、小波分析等方法,分析近50年来滇池流域汛期降水年际变化的趋势性、周期性以及集中度、集中期、降水中心和旱涝发生频率等演变特征。结果表明:(1)近50年来,滇池流域汛期降水总体呈减少趋势,中部地区降水呈增加趋势,盘龙江上游的松华坝水库以上区域及南部地区降水呈减少趋势;(2)汛期降水年际变化存在31 a的主周期,中部主城区降水集中度高于南部地区;(3)汛期降水的中心整体呈现向东部、南部方向偏移的态势,且移动趋势显著;(4)滇池流域旱涝频发,尤其盘龙江中段昆明主城区为旱涝多发区。该成果对滇池流域水旱灾害防御及水资源管理具有参考意义。 展开更多
关键词 滇池流域 汛期降水 集中度 集中期 降水中心 旱涝特征
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不同发酵时期对黑蒜调味粉品质的影响
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作者 王帅 武帅兵 贺羽 《中国调味品》 CAS 北大核心 2024年第3期87-91,共5页
黑蒜富含微量元素与营养物质,作为一种食品或保健品在市面上流行。黑蒜的品质也引起了人们的广泛关注。普通黑蒜是用新鲜完整的带皮生蒜在高温高湿的发酵箱中自然发酵90~120 d后制成的。然而生蒜是如何在发酵过程中逐渐变黑、黑蒜与生... 黑蒜富含微量元素与营养物质,作为一种食品或保健品在市面上流行。黑蒜的品质也引起了人们的广泛关注。普通黑蒜是用新鲜完整的带皮生蒜在高温高湿的发酵箱中自然发酵90~120 d后制成的。然而生蒜是如何在发酵过程中逐渐变黑、黑蒜与生蒜极大的口感差别以及两者营养价值的变化基于什么成为人们疑惑的问题。该研究选取品相完好的紫皮独头蒜,在专业的黑蒜发酵锅中发酵10 d,获得发酵成功的黑蒜,并在发酵过程中对不同发酵时期的黑蒜进行质构测定,经过干燥破碎,制成调味蒜粉,并对其中的还原糖含量、总酸含量、总酚含量、水分含量、粗脂肪含量、蛋白质含量进行测定,由此探寻蒜在发酵过程中产生的变化,从而对不同发酵时期黑蒜调味粉的品质进行综合评价。该研究可拓展关于调味品发酵方面的知识,为提高新型功能性调味粉的营养价值提供更多的数据资源。 展开更多
关键词 黑蒜 干燥破碎 调味粉 发酵时期 品质
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考虑时段校核和季节性储能的多区互联电力系统年度发电计划
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作者 叶露遥 黄河 +3 位作者 王建学 王子强 李珊珊 王梓宇 《电力自动化设备》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2024年第7期223-230,共8页
随着新能源发电量占比的提高,新能源发电量季节性波动引起的年度电力电量平衡问题更加明显。建立年度发电计划模型,提出一种典型时段校核方法;在年度发电计划制定的过程中引入季节性储能设备,建立季节性储氢模型和考虑水头位置的季节性... 随着新能源发电量占比的提高,新能源发电量季节性波动引起的年度电力电量平衡问题更加明显。建立年度发电计划模型,提出一种典型时段校核方法;在年度发电计划制定的过程中引入季节性储能设备,建立季节性储氢模型和考虑水头位置的季节性抽水蓄能线性化模型;为了应对新能源出力的不确定性,提出考虑时段校核和季节性储能的年度发电计划三阶段建模方法。算例结果验证了所提模型的有效性。 展开更多
关键词 年度发电计划 典型时段校核方法 季节性储能 可再生能源 多区协调
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不同播期下高温对江西早稻灌浆结实及产量的影响
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作者 段里成 郭瑞鸽 +3 位作者 蔡哲 杨军 龚琦 张崇华 《中国农业气象》 CSCD 2024年第6期584-593,共10页
以江西主栽常规籼稻品种为试验材料,于2022年在南昌县进行分期播种试验,4个播期分别为3月11日(B1)、3月24日(B2,常规播期)、4月5日(B3)和4月15日(B4),分析大田高温对早稻抽穗、灌浆及产量的影响,以历史气象数据(1961-2022年)对不同播期... 以江西主栽常规籼稻品种为试验材料,于2022年在南昌县进行分期播种试验,4个播期分别为3月11日(B1)、3月24日(B2,常规播期)、4月5日(B3)和4月15日(B4),分析大田高温对早稻抽穗、灌浆及产量的影响,以历史气象数据(1961-2022年)对不同播期下的高温发生情况进行对比分析。结果表明:随着播期推迟,早稻产量、结实率和千粒重均呈下降趋势,高温日数与产量、结实率、千粒重呈显著负相关关系(P<0.05),3月11日播期下,早稻产量显著高于3月24日及以后各播期处理。高温虽提高了早稻抽穗后10~15d灌浆速率,但不利于抽穗15d后较高灌浆速率的维持。4个播期下早稻生育期内,1961-2022年早稻灌浆期高温日数B4播期明显高于B1;2000年后各播期处理生育期内早稻抽穗灌浆期高温日数呈明显增加趋势;江西早稻高温易发区与早稻主要种植区高度重合。江西早稻种植区可适当提早播种,以减轻高温带来的不利影响。 展开更多
关键词 高温 早稻 灌浆速率 产量 生育期
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漳江口溶解态稀土元素的地球化学特征及影响因素
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作者 李方茹 刘茜 +3 位作者 贺万阳 马莉 曹阿翔 张劲 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第7期42-55,共14页
河口区域稀土元素(Rare earth elements, REEs)的地球化学行为对理解海洋中REEs的循环具有重要意义。本文通过现场调查对2018年9月(暴雨时期)、2019年12月(旱季)及2020年8月(湿季)溶解态REEs在漳江口的分布特征、REEs的主要影响因素及... 河口区域稀土元素(Rare earth elements, REEs)的地球化学行为对理解海洋中REEs的循环具有重要意义。本文通过现场调查对2018年9月(暴雨时期)、2019年12月(旱季)及2020年8月(湿季)溶解态REEs在漳江口的分布特征、REEs的主要影响因素及人为稀土元素钆(Gd)污染进行研究。结果表明:漳江口溶解态REEs在不同时期的分布及分异存在显著差异,溶解态REEs含量暴雨时期>旱季>湿季。暴雨时期溶解态REEs主要呈现轻/中稀土相对富集及Ce正异常现象,而旱季及湿季溶解态REEs主要呈现重稀土相对富集及Ce负异常现象,颗粒物-水作用是不同时期溶解态REEs含量及分异存在差异的主要原因。Gd在不同时期均呈现正异常,暴雨时期、旱季及湿季人为Gd占比分别为18%~29%、26%~69%及22%~60%,推测Gd污染可能受河口上游医院核磁共振造影剂使用的影响。以上研究表明暴雨导致的颗粒物释放对河口溶解态REEs具有显著的贡献,今后研究需要重视特殊事件(如暴雨)对河口溶解态REEs来源和收支的影响。漳江口上游的人口密度相比全国其他地区较低但存在较为严重的人为Gd污染,说明我国其他河口人为稀土污染及来源也应引起广泛的重视。 展开更多
关键词 稀土元素 漳江口 颗粒物-水作用 暴雨时期 湿季 旱季
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气候变化下大兴安岭南段季节冻土退化特征
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作者 孙逸晨 魏江生 +3 位作者 舒洋 赵鹏武 齐桂萍 张静 《林业科学研究》 CSCD 北大核心 2024年第3期86-94,共9页
[目的]季节冻土退化会直接影响生长季初期的水分补给,进而影响区域森林健康。然而,目前大兴安岭南段的冻土退化,特别是气候变化下冻土如何退化尚不清楚。[方法]在内蒙古赛罕乌拉国家级自然保护区长期实验森林中,定位观测2014-2022年气... [目的]季节冻土退化会直接影响生长季初期的水分补给,进而影响区域森林健康。然而,目前大兴安岭南段的冻土退化,特别是气候变化下冻土如何退化尚不清楚。[方法]在内蒙古赛罕乌拉国家级自然保护区长期实验森林中,定位观测2014-2022年气温、土壤温度、土壤体积含水量等环境因子,分析森林季节冻土退化特征。[结果]研究表明:大兴安岭南段气温加速上升,1997-2022年间年平均气温上升速率为0.42℃·(10 a)^(-1),比1973-1996年间的升温速率[0.34℃·(10 a)^(-1)]加快了23.5%;且冻融期(当年11月-次年6月)平均气温上升速率更快[0.46℃·(10 a)^(-1)]。土壤的冻融模式呈自上而下单向冻结,单向融化;冻结速率、融化速率随着土壤深度的增加而变快,在40~80 cm土层达到最大值(冻结速率2.23 cm·d^(-1)、融化速率4.50 cm·d^(-1))。季节冻土持续退化,观测到的最大冻结深度由80 cm减少至40 cm;冻融期显著缩短,开始冻结时间推迟,完全融化时间提前,导致年冻融期缩短15.21%。应用本文建立的冻融多元线性回归模型计算得出,积温升高对研究区季节冻土退化的贡献率超过90%,是该区域季节冻土退化的最主要原因。[结论]在大兴安岭南段,冻土退化主要表现为冻融期缩短,气温升高是导致季节冻土退化的主要驱动因素,今后有必要监测季节冻土的变化,从而更好地进行森林经营。 展开更多
关键词 气候变化 季节性冻土 冻土退化 冻融期
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西藏地区一种新的四季划分方法
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作者 史继清 周刊社 +3 位作者 张东东 杜军 甘臣龙 普布多吉 《干旱区地理》 CSCD 北大核心 2024年第5期773-784,共12页
利用西藏地区38个气象站点1981—2022年逐日气温资料,分析常用气候季节划分方法在西藏地区的适用性,指出各种季节划分方法的不足和局限,基于西藏物候和主要农作物生育期提出的季节划分气温阈值等指标,筛选出适于西藏地区的季节划分方法... 利用西藏地区38个气象站点1981—2022年逐日气温资料,分析常用气候季节划分方法在西藏地区的适用性,指出各种季节划分方法的不足和局限,基于西藏物候和主要农作物生育期提出的季节划分气温阈值等指标,筛选出适于西藏地区的季节划分方法及气温阈值,分析了西藏地区的四季开始日和长短的变化特征。结果表明:(1)常用气候季节划分方法在西藏地区应用有一定的局限性,而西藏物候季节划分方法和生育期季节划分方法适用于西藏高原地区的农事活动。(2)基于阈值“6℃、15℃”“5℃、16℃”“6℃、16℃”和“6℃、17℃”分析典型气象站四季时间长度变化特征发现,改则冬季时间长度长于其他季节、察隅夏季时间长度长于其他季节,且拉萨、昌都、改则、察隅四季长度均呈现夏季上升和秋冬季下降的趋势。(3)拉萨和昌都的夏季平均气温进行突变检验发现两站分别于2011年和2017年出现突变,佐证了夏季阈值取17℃的合理性。(4)西藏新四季划分法指标为“6℃、17℃”,该指标划分西藏四季发现,夏季站点主要分布在雅鲁藏布江一线的较低海拔地区;春、秋季持续时间整体呈现西北部和南部偏短、中东部偏长的特征,夏季呈现中部偏长、四周偏短的特点,冬季与春秋季则相反;四季时空特征符合西藏地区实际情况。春、夏、秋、冬季平均开始日分别为3月21日、6月16日、7月25日、11月3日。 展开更多
关键词 季节划分方法 气温阈值 物候 生育期 西藏
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一类具有季节交替的n维Gilpin-Ayala竞争模型的动力学
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作者 陈梅香 谢溪庄 《华侨大学学报(自然科学版)》 CAS 2024年第3期417-422,共6页
研究一类具有季节交替的n维Gilpin-Ayala竞争模型。利用单调动力系统的理论,当n=1时,系统存在着阈值动力学。根据离散竞争映射的负载单形理论,证得n维系统存在一个(n-1)维的负载单形。结果表明:(n-1)维的负载单形吸引了系统在R^(n)_(+)... 研究一类具有季节交替的n维Gilpin-Ayala竞争模型。利用单调动力系统的理论,当n=1时,系统存在着阈值动力学。根据离散竞争映射的负载单形理论,证得n维系统存在一个(n-1)维的负载单形。结果表明:(n-1)维的负载单形吸引了系统在R^(n)_(+)中的所有非平凡轨道。 展开更多
关键词 季节交替 Gilpin-Ayala竞争模型 周期解 庞加莱映射 负载单形
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梯级水库运行期设计洪水及水位联合优化调控变革与启示
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作者 徐长江 熊丰 +2 位作者 戴明龙 李妍清 熊明 《中国水利》 2024年第12期13-17,共5页
我国水资源时空分布不均,年际、年内变差大,洪涝和干旱并存,流域防洪与兴利需求并重。随着大规模水库群建成投运,流域下垫面条件及产汇流机制明显变异,水库及引调水工程运行等人类活动对设计洪水影响显著,梯级水库群运行管理中如何分析... 我国水资源时空分布不均,年际、年内变差大,洪涝和干旱并存,流域防洪与兴利需求并重。随着大规模水库群建成投运,流域下垫面条件及产汇流机制明显变异,水库及引调水工程运行等人类活动对设计洪水影响显著,梯级水库群运行管理中如何分析和应用设计洪水成为亟待解决的新问题,水库群联合优化调控、水资源高效利用的现实要求十分迫切,已列入中国科学技术协会2023年十大产业技术问题。经过多年探索实践,我国在梯级水库运行期设计洪水及水位联合优化调控方面已取得一定研究进展和成果,但仍存在对暴雨洪水季节性变化规律认识不足、梯级水库群系统中各水库运行相互影响考虑不足、现代水文气象实时预报信息运用不足等问题,亟须系统开展运行期设计洪水及水位联合优化调控体系研究,实现风险可控条件下水资源高效利用,保障防洪安全、供水安全、能源安全、生态安全,推进新阶段经济社会高质量发展。 展开更多
关键词 梯级水库 运行期设计洪水 汛期运行水位 联合优化调控
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基于时热积温的水稻热害影响模型及等级指标研究
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作者 汪天颖 帅细强 +3 位作者 李民华 杨嫔玲 黄安凤 汪天柯 《贵州农业科学》 CAS 2024年第8期127-133,共7页
【目的】构建基于时热积温的水稻热害影响模型和等级指标,为精细化水稻热害减灾服务提供依据。【方法】于2021—2022年在湖南怀化开展水稻透明薄膜盖棚增温大田试验,以Y两优911为供试品种,结合逐小时气温数据,采用二次方程拟合、LSD方... 【目的】构建基于时热积温的水稻热害影响模型和等级指标,为精细化水稻热害减灾服务提供依据。【方法】于2021—2022年在湖南怀化开展水稻透明薄膜盖棚增温大田试验,以Y两优911为供试品种,结合逐小时气温数据,采用二次方程拟合、LSD方差显著性分析法、相关分析法,筛选构建基于不同高温阈值时热积温的一季稻孕穗期至成熟期结实率高温影响定量评估模型及等级指标,并进行独立样本验证。【结果】结实率减少值与35~40℃高温阈值的时热积温关联紧密,其中,以35℃高温阈值相关性最高(P<0.001),其次为36℃(P<0.005)、37℃(P<0.010)阈值。结实率减少2%、4%、8%分别为轻、中、重热害的致灾临界值,各高温阈值及其对应轻、中、重热害时热积温下限分别为35℃,146℃·h、196℃·h、365℃·h;36℃,112℃·h、176℃·h、334℃·h;37℃,85℃·h、140℃·h、270℃·h。模型和指标验证结果与实测值的一致性较好,其中,以35℃高温阈值的模型具有相比最低的平均绝对误差(MAE)、均方根误差(RMSE)及最高的相关系数(r),且指标验证与实际数据符合程度最高。【结论】基于时热积温的水稻热害模型及等级指标能较好反映结实率受高温影响程度,可应用于水稻生产热害监测预警、防灾减灾服务。 展开更多
关键词 高温 时热积温 一季稻 生育时段 定量评估模型 热害等级指标 Y两优911
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飞行保障架次预测方法研究及恢复期预测
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作者 茅佳宁 丁松滨 +1 位作者 刘计民 宋晓敏 《计算机与数字工程》 2024年第5期1563-1568,共6页
为研究飞行保障架次未来恢复发展情况,在传统时间序列预测方法基础上引入支持向量机(SVM)进行优化,再结合疫情影响预测并判断未来的增长情况,为未来航空运输的恢复提供了一定参考依据。首先基于ARIMA-SVM、Holt-Winters三参数指数平滑-... 为研究飞行保障架次未来恢复发展情况,在传统时间序列预测方法基础上引入支持向量机(SVM)进行优化,再结合疫情影响预测并判断未来的增长情况,为未来航空运输的恢复提供了一定参考依据。首先基于ARIMA-SVM、Holt-Winters三参数指数平滑-SVM两种组合模型,在无疫情数据基础上进行验证,实现模型精度的优化;然后基于X-12分解疫情时间序列,预测2021年-2023年三年内的月度值,并判断年度增长恢复情况。结果表明:引入SVM优化残差序列后,组合模型与单一模型相比误差有所降低;通过疫情影响分析及预测可以判断疫情影响下的飞行保障架次预计在2023年恢复至疫情前的水平。 展开更多
关键词 飞行保障架次 时间序列预测 ARIMA乘法季节模型 Holt-Winters三参数指数平滑 恢复期预测
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高寒山区季节冻土冻融特征参数变化及其影响因素——以天山南坡为例
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作者 施发祥 秦甲 +4 位作者 韩添丁 崔峻豪 丁永建 成鹏 游艳辉 《冰川冻土》 CSCD 2024年第1期89-100,共12页
季节冻土在高寒山区广泛分布,其冻融过程会对水文水资源和生态环境产生深刻影响。研究气候变化背景下高寒山区季节冻土冻融特征参数变化及影响机理,可为高寒山区水资源管理和生态保护提供科学依据。本文选择天山南坡作为研究区,基于13... 季节冻土在高寒山区广泛分布,其冻融过程会对水文水资源和生态环境产生深刻影响。研究气候变化背景下高寒山区季节冻土冻融特征参数变化及影响机理,可为高寒山区水资源管理和生态保护提供科学依据。本文选择天山南坡作为研究区,基于13个气象站点1958年以来季节冻土冻融参数(最大冻深、冻结期、始冻日、解冻日)、气温、地表温度、降雨和积雪等数据,使用空间分析和多元线性回归统计等方法对冻融参数的时空变化特征进行分析,量化不同气候因素对季节冻土冻融变化的影响权重。结果表明,季节冻土最大冻深在(48.5±11.4)~(96.8±8.5)cm之间,冻结天数在(102±10)~(141±14)d之间,多年平均始冻日在11月7日至19日之间,多年平均解冻日在3月1日至28日之间。1950年代至2010年代期间,始冻日逐渐推迟,解冻日逐渐提前,冻结天数缩短。空间分布上,最大冻深有“海拔高,最大冻深大”的规律;空间变化趋势上,最大冻深在研究区中部显著增加;冻结天数在研究区内大范围显著缩短。季节冻土冻融变化与气温相关性最强,温度(气温和地表温度)是季节冻土冻融变化的主导因子。定量评价发现,气温影响占比(24.1±3.6)%,地表温度影响占比(12.1±3.1)%,降雨影响占比(9.6±1.7)%,积雪影响占比(5.1±1.5)%。 展开更多
关键词 季节冻土 最大冻深 冻结期 时空变化 天山南坡
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