Prediction of seawater pH by bidirectional gated recurrent neural network with attention under phase space reconstruction:case study of the coastal waters of Beihai,China

Marine life is very sensitive to changes in pH.Even slight changes can cause ecosystems to collapse.Therefore,understanding the future pH of seawater is of great significance for the protection of the marine environment.At present,the monitoring method of seawater pH has been matured.However,how to accurately predict future changes has been lacking effective solutions.Based on this,the model of bidirectional gated recurrent neural network with multi-headed self-attention based on improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise combined with phase space reconstruction(ICPBGA)is proposed to achieve seawater pH prediction.To verify the validity of this model,pH data of two monitoring sites in the coastal sea area of Beihai,China are selected to verify the effect.At the same time,the ICPBGA model is compared with other excellent models for predicting chaotic time series,and root mean square error(RMSE),mean absolute error(MAE),mean absolute percentage error(MAPE),and coefficient of determination(R2)are used as performance evaluation indicators.The R2 of the ICPBGA model at Sites 1 and 2 are above 0.9,and the prediction errors are also the smallest.The results show that the ICPBGA model has a wide range of applicability and the most satisfactory prediction effect.The prediction method in this paper can be further expanded and used to predict other marine environmental indicators.

Processes Controlling the Carbonate Chemistry of Surface Seawater Along the 150°E Transect in the Northwest Pacific Ocean

The problem of ocean acidification caused by the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is becoming increasingly prominent.Field observation in the northwest Pacific Ocean was carried out along the 150°E transect in November 2019.The distribution characteristics and influencing factors of the surface seawater carbonate chemistry,including dissolved inorganic carbon(DIC),total alkalinity(TA),pH,partial pressure of carbon dioxide(pCO_(2))and aragonite saturation state(Ω_(arag))were investigated.DIC and TA ranged from 1915 to 2014μmol kg^(−1)and 2243 to 2291μmol kg^(−1),respectively;DIC in general decreased with decreasing latitude,but TA had no clear latitudinal gradient.pCO_(2)values increased with the decrease of latitude and were all below the atmospheric pCO_(2)level,ranging from 332 to 387μatm.pH on the total hydrogen ion concentration scale(pH_(T))decreased with the decrease of latitude in the range of 8.044–8.110,whileΩ_(arag) increased with the decrease of latitude in the range of 2.61–3.88,suggesting that the spatial distributions of pH_(T) andΩ_(arag) were out of phase.Compared with the present,the predicted values of pH_(T) and Ω_(arag) by the end of this century would decrease remarkedly;larger declines were found in the higher pH_(T) and Ω_(arag) regions,resulting in the differences along the meridional gradient becoming smaller for bothpH_(T) and Ω_(arag).

Projections of changes in marine environment in coastal China seas over the 21^st century based on CMIP5 models

The increases of atmospheric carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have caused fundamental changes to the physical and biogeochemical properties of the oceans,and it will continue to occur in the foreseeable future.Based on the outputs of nine Earth System Models from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5),in this study,we provided a synoptic assessment of future changes in the sea surface temperature(SST),salinity,dissolved oxygen(DO),seawater pH,and marine net primary productivity(NPP)in the coastal China seas over the 21st century.The results show that the mid-high latitude areas of the coastal China seas(East China Seas(ECS),including the Bohai Sea,Yellow Sea,and East China Sea)will be simultaneously exposed to enhanced warming,deoxygenation,acidification,and decreasing NPP as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas emissions.The magnitudes of the changes will increase as the greenhouse gas concentrations increase.Under the high emission scenario(Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5),the ECS will experience an SST increase of 3.24±1.23℃,a DO concentration decrease of 10.90±3.92μmol/L(decrease of 6.3%),a pH decline of 0.36±0.02,and a NPP reduction of-17.7±6.2 mg/(m2·d)(decrease of 12.9%)relative to the current levels(1980-2005)by the end of this century.The co-occurrence of these changes and their cascade effects are expected to induce considerable biological and ecological responses,thereby making the ECS among the most vulnerable ocean areas to future climate change.Despite high uncertainties,our results have important implications for regional marine assessments.