Demographic and Infrastructure Problems of Villages in the Hilly-Mountainous Areas of Prilep

In this paper it has been investigated the issue of the dynamics of the rural population in villages in the mountainous areas of the municipality of Prilep height distribution of the mountainous villages, the area size, absolute density and agrarian population in hilly-mountainous villages, the distance of the hill-mountain villages of the municipality center and institutional infrastructure hilly-mountainous areas in Prilep. Despite the demographic decline that was made in the past 45 years, the municipality and the country will have even more incentive in the coming years to invest in infrastructure to improve little very bad living conditions and foremost here we think of infrastructure, roads, water drinking, clinics, veterinary stations, public transportation, gas stations, stores, construction of ethnic restaurants and small hotels so that at least the older generations of the cities as the least retirement to spend at home, to create minimum conditions for living and so that villages in hilly and mountainous villages to be attractive to younger generations of the cities and migrant workers from European countries and America Australia frequently to visit home, and to be able to invest in small commercial buildings in the area of tourism.

Reexamining China＇s Demographic Transition and Age Structure

This paper discusses the shortcomings of Western theories on demographic transition by comparing transitions in demographic structure for Europe and China. This paper further proposes several criteria for judging the direction of demographic transition and whether or not it has finished. Apart from establishing new theories of demographic transition and the trasition of demographic structure, this paper differentiates the concepts of ＂relative surplus population＂ and ＂relative suitable population,＂ and ＂relative insufficient population＂ and identifies key demographic differences along the way. In doing so, this paper argues that China＇s demographic strueture is undergoing a process of rebalancing.

How Demographic Structure Determines International Capital Flows

This paper investigated the relationship between demographic structure and international capital flows with panel data of 190 countries over the past 60 years＇ and projection data for the 21st century. As found, from a global perspective, the current account balance （CAB） is negatively related to the dependency ratio, and orresponding to continuous change, international eapital flows tend to move from ＂adult countries＂ to ＂aged or young countries.＂ Since the middle of the 20th century, the U.S., Europe, Japan, China, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, South Asia, West Asia and Africa took turns in exporting capital to other countries. In the 2lst century, Europe, the U.S., Australia and Singapore will keep importing capital, while China in the 2030s, and Southeast Asia in the 2050s will in turn become the main capital importers. Given the demographic structure of China and the world, the future pattern of the international capital flows requires more serious concern and responses.

A Study on the Impact of China’s Demographic Structure on Human Capital Accumulation-Based on a Panel Data Model

With the development of the times,the role of human capital in economic growth has been highlighted.However,in the current academic world,the research on the topic of demographic structure and human capital accumulation is not closely integrated.China is now in a period of economic transformation and upgrading,and it is urgent to change the traditional economic growth model,increase human capital investment,and cultivate new growth momentum.Therefore,this paper examines the impact of China’s population structure on human capital accumulation by constructing a mathematical model based on relevant panel data of 31 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)from 2001 to 2020.The empirical results show that human capital accumulation in China has a certain lagging effect,while population age and urban-rural structure enhance human capital accumulation in both quantitative and qualitative terms,respectively.In addition,industrial transformation,economic growth level,and per capita income all have significant positive effects.The effect of education,on the other hand,is not significant,while the interaction between urbanization and industrial structure may hurt it.Based on this,this paper proposes targeted countermeasures and suggestions in terms of fully developing the population quality dividend,fully tapping the talent knowledge dividend,continuously improving the health dividend,and continually tapping the aging dividend.

Flora, Structure and Carbon Sequestration of Vegetation in the Southeast of the Mono Biosphere Reserve in Togo Amidst Environmental Challenges

In most Sub-Saharan African countries such as Togo, people’s heavy dependence on ecosystem services is a major factor in accelerating the degradation of natural resources, which are already suffering as a result of climatic factors. This study was initiated to contribute to the sustainable and rational management of forest resources in the south-east of the Mono Biosphere Reserve in Togo. It specifically aims to identify and characterize the flora of the residual forest ecosystems within the reserve through their specific diversity, demographic structure, and carbon sequestration potential. The study was carried out in the forest ecosystems of Avévé. The methodology used was based on the analysis of phytosociological, forestry, ecological, and regeneration inventory data. Overall, the study revealed that the RBMT still has floristically viable habitats, despite the anthropogenic pressures it is subject to revealed a floristic diversity of 160 plant species divided into 52 families and 135 genera. The most represented families are Rubiaceae (29.09%), followed by Fabaceae (27.94%). The most represented species are Mitragyna inermis (Willd.) Kuntze (24.38%), Lecaniodiscus cupanioides Planch. Ex Benth (X) and Lonchocarpus sericeus (Poir.) Kunth (10.93%). The high presence of Mitragyna inermis observed in all the ecological groups identified makes it the characteristic species of the flooded marshy areas of southeast Togo and contributes to the resilience of the ecosystems and populations in the study area. The Shannon index for the formation groups varies between (3.03 and 5.16) bits. Pielou’s equitability varies between (0.43 and 0.63) bits. The overall average density is estimated at 210 stems/ha, with an average diameter of 25.57 ± 21.77 m and an average height of 7.93 ± 3.83 m. The adjustment of the diameter classes of the plant groups to the Weibull distribution gave an “inverted J” shape with coefficient values of less than 1 overall, reflecting the existence of multispecific or uneven-aged stands. Assessment of the horizontal and vertical structure shows a predominance of the shrub layer in all the groups identified. The carbon sequestration potential is 41.89 T/Ha. Despite ongoing anthropogenic pressures, the Mono Biosphere Reserve abounds in a relatively rich diversity of flora, the preservation of which is essential for the survival of biodiversity and even for the riparian population. The data provided by this study would form the basis for sustainable management planning of the forest islands in the biosphere reserve.

Shallow Genetic Structure of Pholis fangi in Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea Inferred from mt DNA Control Region

Pholis fangi is an ecologically important fish species inhabiting Chinese coastal waters of Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea. To investigate the genetic diversity and population genetic structure of P. fangi, a fragment of 487 bp in the first hypervariable region (HVR-1) of the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region was sequenced for 181 individuals collected from Bohai Sea and Yel- low Sea. A total of 18 polymorphic sites were detected, which defined 25 haplotypes. A moderate level of haplotype diversity (h = 0.7052) and a low level of nucleotide diversity (π= 0.0028) were detected. Both the phylogenetic tree and the haplotype network showed no significant genealogical structure difference among sampling locations. Pairwise FST comparison and hierarchical mo- lecular variance analysis (AMOVA) revealed that no significant genetic structure difference existed throughout the investigated re- gions, suggesting a high gene exchange among different populations. The results of neutrality test and mismatch distribution analysis indicated that a late Pleistocene population expansion (38000 127000 years ago) happened. Seasonal schooling migration may con- tribute to the genetically homogeneous population structure of the species.

Demographic, Economic, and Social Challenges of the Population Ageing in Cameroon

The elderly represent a growing proportion of the overall population and household＇s heads in Cameroon. This demographic change has some impact on the economic and social situation of the latter, in particular, the functioning of the family structure and solidarity between generations. The successive crises （food and financial） coupled with structural adjustment programs have in fact worsened the problems of the elderly, without having for compensation, provided the corresponding benefits for other age groups. This study contributes to the analysis of changes over time in the family support system, especially with regard to household＇s heads aged in Cameroon. To achieve this, the discussion turns around three questions： （1） what is the extent and nature of the ageing in Cameroon？ （2） what are the demographic, economic, and social implications？ and （3） what is the impact of economic and social change on intergenerational relationships？ The data used come from the Population Census （1976, 1987, and 2005）, and the Cameroonian Household Survey of 2007. The gradual deterioration of the support system for the family, especially due to modernization, and the current and future numbers of older should bring more policymakers to meet the specific needs of this group in Cameroon.

智能社会(人工智能时代)的人口再转变

工业化进程中的世界人口转变呈现出相似的轨迹。三次人口转变理论考察了工业化过程中人口再生产模式转变的特点、原因和影响,也正是费孝通先生所言的人类社会“三级两跳”中的“第一跳”(从农业社会到工业社会)中人口再生产模式的演变。人口转变带来人口数量和结构变迁,并深刻影响着国家与地区实力和世界竞争格局。当前我们正处在“第二跳”(从工业社会到智能社会)之中,人工智能时代开启,技术从对人类体力的替代转为对人类脑力的替代,将会对人类自身再生产和生活产生深刻影响。人工智能技术所带来的弥补、叠加和替代效应或将革命性地改变出生和死亡这两个人口转变要素,从而颠覆传统人口转变与人口变迁模式,塑造工业社会跃升智能社会背景下的人口再转变。人口是基础性、长期性、战略性变量,面对未来技术变革带来的不确定性,需要从长时段大视野出发,尽早预见和充分准备以应对科技巨变对人口发展带来的革命性影响。

Genetic structure and recent population demographic history of Taihangshan macaque(Macaca mulatta tcheliensis),North China

Massive actions have been and are being taken into protecting the world’s primates from extinction,while the study of the properties of genetic diversity,demographic history,and ecological relationships will benefit the understand-ing of the long-term survival of a species.The Taihangshan macaque(Macaca mulatta tcheliensis),a subspecies of rhesus macaque(Macaca mulatta),is endemic to China and currently restricted to southern Mt.Taihangshan area.Herein,we evaluated the genetic diversity,population structure,and demographic history of this subspecies using mitochondrial(Cytb and high variable region I:HVR I)and nuclear markers(microsatellite loci)of 131 in-dividuals collected from 9 localities covering the distribution range of this subspecies.Both phylogenetic analyses and genetic assignment revealed that the wild populations of Taihangshan macaques could be divided into 2 major highly divergent clades,THS-east and THS-west.Low genetic diversity(π:0.00266±0.00016)but high haplotype diversity(Hd:0.80352±0.015)were detected in the Taihangshan macaques,particularly in THS-east.Analyses of demographic history suggested that the Taihangshan macaques experiencedfirst a stable historical population size from Holocene to early 19th century but a subtle decline and then slight growth in the recent 200 years.We suggest that bridging the neighbor populations(i.e.setting corridors)would facilitate the male-mediated geneflow and subsequently increase the genetic diversity of the Taihangshan macaque populations.

Genetic diversity,population structure and demographic history of Dugesia japonica in Taihang Mountains

The freshwater planarian Dugesia japonica has become a model organism in regeneration biology and toxicology due to its powerful regeneration capability and highly chemical sensitivity.Nonetheless,little is known about its evolutionary history and demographics.Taihang Mountains is the natural boundary between the Loess Plateau and the North China Plain,and is considered as one of the important priority areas for biodiversity conservation in China.In order to figure out the genetic diversity,population structure and demographic history of D.japonica in Taihang Mountains,a study based on the mitochondrial COI from 116 individuals sampled across 20 populations has been conducted.The results showed that the 116 COI sequences yielded 32 haplotypes,including 8 shared haplotypes and 24 private ones.The overall haplotype diversity(Hd)and nucleotide diversity(π)were 0.920 and 0.083,respectively.Even though the AMOVA results suggested that the genetic variation among populations was significant(FST=0.480,P<0.01),the phylogeny and haplotype network analysis based on 32 haplotypes revealed no obvious phylogeographic pattern.Furthermore,the significantly positive values of neutrality test(Tajima’s D=2.596,P<0.05;Fu’s Fs=2.769,P<0.01)together with the multimodal arrangement of mismatch distribution indicated that D.japonica in Taihang Mountains would have been undergoing population decline.We hope these findings will arouse conservation and management strategy regarding freshwater planarians and contribute to the biodiversity in the long run.

Relating Demography to Trade Imbalances through Theoretical Modeling and Numerical Simulation

Demographic transitions occur at different times and speed across different economies, and age structures consequently differ across regions. Using a solvable four-phase model, we show that economies with a higher proportion of working-age force and a lower dependency ratio tend to have higher savings rates. Because the demographic ＂ center of gravity＂for investment demand falls at a younger point in the age distribution than that of savings supply, countries with a younger age-distribution like those described above generate national savings in excess of domestic investment, resulting in a current account surplus. Numerical simulation supports this hypothesis. But the relative youth or age of a country＇s population reflects temporary demographic trends which change continuously. Therefore, while trade imbalances caused by demographic factors are structural and long-term, they are not permanent, and may be reversed by changes in age structure.

延迟退休对青年人就业的挤入效应研究

本文从理论上提出了延迟退休对青年人就业产生挤入效应的两条途径,并基于2005年1%人口抽样调查微观数据和2010年第六次全国人口普查微观数据,采用双向固定效应模型实证研究了延迟退休对青年人就业的影响及作用机制。研究结果显示:延迟退休不仅不会挤出青年人就业,反而会对其产生挤入效应。异质性分析结果表明,相较于男性青年人,延迟退休对女性青年人就业的促进作用偏弱;高学历老年人延迟退休能够促进高学历青年人就业,低学历老年人延迟退休能够促进低学历青年人就业。机制分析结果表明,延迟退休通过降低实际老年抚养比促进青年人就业。调节效应分析结果表明,经济发展水平对延迟退休与青年人就业之间的关系存在正向调节效应。本文的研究结论支持政府为增加劳动力供给提出的延迟退休政策,建议推进渐进式、弹性式延迟退休政策。在实行延迟退休政策的同时,政府应适时调整其他相关政策。在三孩生育政策全面放开阶段,政府应重视年轻家庭对祖辈隔代照料的需求。此外,政府应鼓励老年劳动力提升自身人力资本水平。

Impact of Demographic Structure on Paddy and Forestland Management

In order to understand the impact of demographic structure on paddy and forestland managementafter the convening of the Third Plenary Session of the 11th CPC (Communist Party of China) CentralCommittee and the implementation of the Household Responsibility System (the government divided upland among peasants for cultivating and the peasants sell a set part of their produced goods to thegovernment at stipulated prices by contract in the countryside of China), 147 households in 6 villages,belonging to Xiangtan County and Zhuzhou County in Hunan Province, were selected as research samples,and interview, questionnaire survey and second hand data analyzing were used as the methods. The resultsshowed: Persons with different ages had different ideas, and young peasants would like to work in townsor cities for more income, so they used and depended on land less; In terms of sex, the male was still themain user of land, and therefore the ability, idea and activity of male played an important role in landmanagement; Generally, the labors with better educational background grasped more knowledge andtechnologies, and they had more opportunity to get jobs and had better working condition and moreincome in town or cities, so they depended on and used land less.

人户分离变迁视角的大城市郊区化与人口结构再分布效应研究--基于南京市的实证

人户分离人口是城市流动型人口的主要构成部分,其特征及空间分布变迁为认识大城市郊区化趋势提供了重要视角。近20年来,南京市人户分离人口规模增长迅速,占常住人口比重逐渐提高,其中市内人户分离人口占总人户分离人口的比重显著提高,其人口学特征呈现高学历化和大龄化趋势,其空间分布从核心区集聚向近郊区集聚转变。基于以上变迁特征,重新认识了南京城市郊区化的进程及其程度,发现:(1)2000—2010年期间,南京经历了核心区和近郊区人口普遍增长的快速城市化阶段,外来流动人口是此时期近郊区人口增长的主要来源;(2)2010—2020年期间,南京进入大规模城市郊区化阶段,核心区人口减少而近郊区人口集聚度显著增强,市内人户分离人口取代外来流动人口成为近郊区人口增长的主要来源;(3)2020年,南京的近郊区常住人口人户分离率高达54.4%,表明南京仍处于“迁居不迁户”的“半郊区化”状态,近郊区并未成长为相对独立于核心区、功能相对完整的综合性城区。郊区化带来了不均衡的人口结构再分布效应,要关注和积极应对核心区人口流失与人口结构衰退过快、近郊区“人户分离率”过高和远郊区人口老龄化持续加深等问题。

人口结构、科技创新与中国经济高质量发展——基于空间杜宾模型分析视角

人口要素和科技创新对实现经济高质量发展具有深度影响,人口要素与科技创新是经济增长的两大引擎。文中基于31个省、自治区、直辖市2008一2021年的面板数据,运用空间杜宾模型,从人口结构的4个维度出发,对人口结构、科技创新与经济高质量发展的关系进行了探析。研究结果表明:人口老龄化对本地和邻近地区均为显著的抑制性作用。人口城镇化与科技创新均对本地具有正向促进作用且对邻近地区为正向溢出效应。劳动供给对邻近地区促进作用更为显著,而人力资本未达到预期促进作用。此外,科技创新未能弥补老龄化对经济高质量发展的抑制作用且存在部分遮掩效应。因此,仍需加强区域合作与整合,把握好老龄人口机遇,充分挖掘老龄人力资源,有效推进人口城镇化,加大研发投入强度,促进科技创新,将推动经济高质量发展。

人口集聚对经济高质量发展的作用机制研究

经济发展初期,人口集聚对经济增长具有显著的正向促进作用,然而随着人口红利的消失及粗放式发展呈现出的负外部性加剧,现阶段我国经济发展面临巨大挑战,经济增速开始放缓。此时,中国发展迈入新的转折点,国家开始将重心从速度转向质量与效益,更注重经济增长的可持续性。本文紧扣新发展理念,围绕创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享五个维度展开分析,构建人口集聚对经济高质量发展作用机制的理论分析框架,并得出结论:人口集聚对经济高质量发展的影响呈倒“U”型关系,并存在空间溢出效应,产业结构高级化在此过程中起正向调节作用。鉴于此,积极发挥人口集聚的经济效应,制定适宜的人口调控政策,推进经济高质量发展区域协调化及深化产业结构高级化可以有效推进我国经济高质量发展。

教育对人口结构与经济增长的影响研究

以往研究往往忽略了教育对人口结构的作用。将这一因素引入经济增长分析框架,在估计理论模型中相关参数的基础上,用数值模拟分析了教育对人口结构和经济增长的影响效应及作用机制。研究发现:第一,教育通过提升劳动力人力资本水平和经济体技术水平,促进劳动生产率的增长;第二,教育通过降低生育率和提升寿命,推动人口老龄化和提升人口抚养负担,并通过推迟毕业时间,降低劳动参与率;第三,教育对劳动生产率的促进作用强于对劳动参与率的抑制作用,从而促进人均收入的增长。总而言之,教育解释了人口结构的变动,但是并未加剧人口结构变动带来的经济压力。研究结果不仅扩展了教育经济影响的分析视角,也对完善我国公共教育和生育政策具有启示意义。

中国人口年龄结构转变与空气质量需求——基于2005-2021CGSS的实证研究

本文通过匹配2005—2021年CGSS微观调查数据和空气质量数据,采用生活满意度法对居民环境支付意愿进行测度,分析和预测人口年龄结构转变对社会总环境质量需求的影响。研究表明:①居民愿意为一单位API、SO_(2)、PM_(10)和NO_(2)浓度下降的年均环境质量分别支付736.4元、807.7元、639.5元和922.4元。②在年龄效应上,环境支付意愿与年龄呈现出先增后减的“倒U”形分布,其峰值出现在50岁~70岁;在出生队列效应上,年轻一代的环境支付意愿要显著强于年老一代。③基于人口年龄结构变化的预测结果,年龄效应和出生队列效应将共同驱动社会整体空气质量改善需求显著增强。到2035年,居民针对API、SO_(2)和PM_(10)的边际环境支付意愿将达到人均家庭收入的5.02%、11.54%和6.13%,分别较2015年上升24.9%、24.7%和17.4%。

近十余年澳大利亚华人移民人口结构变化及其影响

澳大利亚自霍华德政府移民政策改革后,华人移民人口结构朝技术化、年轻化、高质量化的方向发展。近十余年来中国对澳移民数量尤为庞大,华人移民人口结构亦发生变化,如家庭移民数量上升,但仍以技术移民为主导;雇主担保类技术移民数量上升,独立技术移民数量下降;商业投资移民持续走高;内地华人移民日益年轻化,而港台华人移民年龄有所上升。这些变化为澳大利亚的发展带来深远影响,如大批中国商业投资移民的到来促进了澳大利亚经济的发展;年轻有技术的华人移民为澳大利亚提供高价值的劳动力,亦缓和了人口老龄化现象;华人移民更加积极融入澳大利亚社会,为多元文化社会贡献更多力量。

民族地区人口年龄结构与人口红利的变动研究——基于民族八省区的实证考察

本文利用1990~2020年全国和民族地区各省区的人口普查资料数据,分析和预测民族地区人口年龄结构以及人口红利在1990~2035年期间的变动趋势和特征。研究发现,民族地区各省区人口年龄结构从1990年的成年型为主转变为2035年的老年型为主,但阶段性变动速度和深度存在明显差异,未来15年间内蒙古、广西和贵州的老化速度突出;民族地区各省区人口机会窗口的开启时间和持续时间不同,到2035年,贵州、广西、内蒙古和云南的人口机会窗口已关闭;民族地区人口红利整体上先增加后减少,且主要包括“持续时间长—经济贡献大”“持续时间长—经济贡献小”和“持续时间短—经济贡献短”3大类型。建议高度重视民族地区进入重度老龄化阶段的政策准备期,在推进人口现代化过程中重视人口质量的提升,把握未来的人口机会窗口和探索新型人口红利的可能性。