On the correlation of nonlinear variables containing secular trend variations： numerical experiments

Due to global warming, the general circulation, underlying surfaces characteristics, and geophysical and meteorological elements all show evident secular trends. This paper points out that when calculating the correlation of two variables containing their own obvious secular trends, the interannual correlation characteristics between the two variables may be distorted （overestimated or underestimated）. Numerical experiments in this paper show that if two variables have opposite secular trends, the correlation coefficient between the two variables is reduced （the positive correlation is underestimated, or the negative correlation is overestimated）; and if the two variables have the same sign of secular trends, the correlation coefficient between the two variables is increased （the positive correlation is overestimated, or the negative correlation is underestimated）. Numerical experiments also suggest that the effect of secular trends on the interannual correlation of the two variables is interchangeable, that is to say, as long as the values of the two trends are not changed, the two variables interchange their positions, and the effect of the secular trends on the interannual correlation coefficient of the two variables remains the same. If the two variables have the same-（opposite-） sign trends, the effect of secular trends on the interannal correlation coefficient is more （less） distinctive. A meteorological example is given.

The Influence of Secular Trends in Body Height and Weight on the Prevalence of Overweight and Obesity among Chinese Children and Adolescents

Objective To explore the influence of secular trends in body height and weight on the prevalence of overweight and obesity among Chinese children and adolescents. Methods The data were obtained from five cross-sectional Chinese National Surveys on Students＇ Constitution and Health. Overweight/obesity was defined as BMI-for-age Z-score of per the Wold Health Organization （WHO） reference values. Body height and weight for each sex and age were standardized to those reported in 1985 （standardized height＂ SHY, standardized weight： SWY） and for each sex and year at age 7 （standardized height： SHA; standardized weight： SWA） using the Z-score method. Results The prevalence of overweight/obesity in Chinese children was 20.2% among boys and 10.7% among girls in 2010 and increased continuously from 1985 to 2010. Among boys and girls of normal weight, SHY and SHA were significantly greater than SWY and SWA, respectively （P 〈 0.001）. Among boys and girls with overweight/obesity, SHY was significantly lower than SWY （P 〈 0.001）, and showed an obvious decreasing trend after age 12. SHA was lower than SWA among overweight boys aged 7-8 years and girls aged 7-9 years. SHY/SHW and SHA/SWA among normal-weight groups were greater than among overweight and obese groups （P 〈 0.001）. Conclusion The continuous increase in the prevalence of overweight/obesity among Chinese children may be related to a rapid increase in body weight before age 9 and lack of secular increase in body height after age 12.

Secular trends of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma in a high endemic area:A population-based study

BACKGROUND Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma(ICC)is one of the most aggressive malignancies.However,because of its scarcity there are limited population-based data available for investigations into its epidemiologic characteristics.In Taiwan,we have a national cancer registry database that can be used to evaluate the secular trends of ICC.AIM To evaluate secular trends of ICC according to age,sex,and risk factors in Taiwan.METHODS In this population-based study,we used the national Taiwan Cancer Registry database.Age-standardized and relative percent changes in incidence rates were used to describe secular trends in incidence rates and sex ratios of ICC in Taiwan.RESULTS The age-standardized ICC incidence rate among males increased from 1.51 per 100000 in 1993-1997 to 4.07 per 100000 in 2013-2017 and among female from 1.73 per 100000 to 2.95 per 100000.The incidence in females tended to plateau after 2008-2012.For males,the ICC incidence increased as age increased.In the long-term incidence trend of ICC in females,the incidence of the four age groups(40-44,45-49,50-54 and 55-59 years)remained stable in different years;although,the incidence of the 60-64 group had a peak in 2003-2007,and the peak incidence of the 65-69 and 70-74 groups occurred in 2008-2012.Among males,beginning at the age of 65,there were increases in the incidence of ICC for the period of 2003-2017 as compared with females in the period of 2003-2017.CONCLUSION Increased incidence of ICC occurred in Taiwan over the past two decades.The increased incidence has progressively shifted toward younger people for both males and females.

The Rise and Fall of the Secular Trend in Body Height in Sardinia:An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Objective Over the last century, a progressive rise in stature, known as the ‘secular trend’, was documented worldwide, and especially in Sardinia, it has reached a peak in Europe. However, this situation recently ceased in several populations. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that the stature secular trend has significantly leveled off in the Sardinian younger generations.Methods Height measurements were retrieved from a database of patients undergoing digestive endoscopy, spanning generations between 1920 and 1990. Sex-specific principal component regression models were fitted to decompose stature variation into the contribution of age, period, and birth cohort.Results A steady increase in stature was observed in generations born after 1920, with an upward surge in those born after 1950. However, a significant leveling off was observed among cohorts born after 1970 among both sexes, as mean heights stabilized at 171.1 cm with a standard error(SE) of 0.9 cm among men and a mean of 160.1 cm(SE = 0.9 cm) among women.Conclusion Our findings support a significant slowdown in the secular trend of stature among the latest Sardinian generations. Several factors, including the consumption of low-quality food, lack of physical activity, and late motherhood, among others, may explain the decline in the secular trend.

Secular trends in incidence of lung cancer by histological type in Beijing, China, 2000-2016

Objective: The objective of this study was to characterize secular trends in the sex-specific, age-standardized incidence of lung cancer by histological type in Beijing, China, from 2000 to 2016 based on data from a populationbased cancer registry.Methods: Data on the incidence of cancer from 2000 to 2016 were obtained from the Beijing Cancer Registry.We examined trends in the sex-specific, age-standardized incidence of lung cancer by histological type using a Joinpoint regression model.Results: A total of 117,409 cases of lung cancer were diagnosed from 2000 to 2016. Overall, 73,062(62.23%)patients were males. The most common histological type among both sexes was adenocarcinoma; however, the proportion of adenocarcinoma differed significantly between males and females(45.36% vs. 77.14%, respectively,P<0.0001). The age-standardized incidence of total lung cancer increased from 2000 to 2010 with an annual percent change(APC) of 2.2% [95% confidence interval(95% CI), 1.5% to 2.9%] and stabilized thereafter. Among males, the incidence of total lung cancer peaked in 2008 and then decreased slightly, with an APC of-1.1%(95%CI,-2.1% to-0.1%). Among females, the incidence increased continuously during the study period, with an APC of 1.4%(95% CI, 0.9% to 1.9%). The incidence of squamous cell carcinoma decreased significantly in recent years among both sexes, with APCs of-2.6%(95% CI,-4.5% to-0.6%) from 2007 to 2016 for males and-5.4%(95%CI,-7.2% to-3.6%) from 2004 to 2016 for females. In contrast, the incidence of adenocarcinoma increased continuously throughout the study period, by APCs of 4.0%(95% CI, 2.6% to 5.4%) for males and 6.2%(95% CI,4.8% to 7.6%) for females. The incidence of small cell carcinoma peaked in 2007 and stabilized thereafter among males, whereas it peaked in 2012 and then decreased with an APC of-14.7%(95% CI,-25.3% to-2.6%) among females. The incidence of large cell carcinoma and other specified malignant neoplasm did not change much,whereas the incidence of unspecified type decreased among both sexes during the study period.Conclusions: Although the incidence of squamous cell carcinoma decreased significantly among both sexes in recent years in Beijing, China, adenocarcinoma increased continuously throughout the study period among both sexes. Knowledge of differences in trends is useful for surveillance and control of lung cancer. However, the reason for the increase in adenocarcinoma remains unclear and warrants investigation.

Secular trend analysis of lung cancer incidence in Sihui city,China between 1987 and 2011

Background:With industrial and economic development in recent decades in South China,cancer incidence may have changed due to the changing lifestyle and environment.However,the trends of lung cancer and the roles of smoking and other environmental risk factors in the development of lung cancer in rural areas of South China remain unclear.The purpose of this study was to explore the lung cancer incidence trends and the possible causes of these trends.Methods:Joinpoint regression analysis and the age-period-cohort(APC) model were used to analyze the lung cancer incidence trends in Sihui,Guangdong province,China between 1987 and 2011,and explore the possible causes of these trends.Results:A total of 2,397 lung cancer patients were involved in this study.A 3-fold increase in the incidence of lung cancer in both sexes was observed over the 25-year period.Joinpoint regression analysis showed that while the incidence continued to increase steadily in females during the entire period,a sharp acceleration was observed in males starting in 2005.The full APC model was selected to describe age,period,and birth cohort effects on lung cancer incidence trends in Sihui.The age cohorts in both sexes showed a continuously significant increase in the relative risk(RR)of lung cancer,with a peak in the eldest age group(80-84 years).The RR of lung cancer showed a fluctuating curve in both sexes.The birth cohorts identified an increased trend in both males and females;however,males had a plateau in the youngest cohorts who were born during 1955-1969.Conclusions:Increasing trends of the incidence of lung cancer in Sihui were dominated by the effects of age and birth cohorts.Social aging,smoking,and environmental changes may play important roles in such trends.

Spatial patterns and secular trends in human leishmaniasis incidence in Morocco between 2003 and 2013

Background:Few studies on spatial patterns or secular trends in human leishmanias have been conducted in Morocco.This study aimed to examine spatial patterns and trends associated with the human leishmaniasis incidence rate(HLIR)at the province/prefecture level between 2003 and 2013 in Morocco.Methods:Only the available published country data on the HLIR between 2003 and 2013,from the open access files of the Ministry of Health,were used.Secular trends were examined using Kendall’s rank correlation.An exploratory spatial data analysis was also conducted to examine the spatial autocorrelation(Global Moran’s I and local indicator of spatial association[LISA]),and spatial diffusion at the province/prefecture level.The influence of various covariates(poverty rate,vulnerability rate,population density,and urbanization)on the HLIR was tested via spatial regression(ordinary least squares regression).Results:At the country level,no secular variation was observed.Poisson annual incidence rate estimates were 13 per 100000 population(95%CI=12.9–13.1)for cutaneous leishmaniasis(CL)and 0.4 per 100000 population(95%CI=0.4–0.5)for visceral leishmaniasis(VL).The available data on HLIR were based on combined CL and VL cases,however,as the CL cases totally outnumbered the VL ones,HLIR may be considered as CL incidence rate.At the provincial level,a secular increase in the incidence rate was observed in Al Hoceima(P=0.008),Taounate(P=0.04),Larache(P=0.002),Tétouan(P=0.0003),Khenifra(P=0.008),Meknes(P=0.03),and El Kelaa(P=0.0007),whereas a secular decrease was observed only in the Chichaoua province(P=0.006).Even though increased or decreased rate was evident in these provinces,none of them showed clustering of leishmaniasis incidence.Significant spatial clusters of high leishmaniasis incidence were located in the northeastern part of Morocco,while spatial clusters of low leishmaniasis incidence were seen in some northwestern and southern parts of Morocco;there was spatial randomness in the remaining parts of the country.Significant clustering was seen from 2005 to 2013,during which time the Errachidia province was a permanent‘hot spot’.Global Moran’s I increased from 0.2844(P=0.006)in 2005 to 0.5886(P=0.001)in 2011,and decreased to 0.2491(P=0.004)in 2013.It was found that only poverty had an effect on the HLIR(P=0.0003),contributing only 23%to this(Adjusted R-squared=0.226).Conclusion:Localities showing either secular increase in human leishmaniasis or significant clustering have been identified,which may guide decision-making as to where to appropriately allocate funding and implement control measures.Researchers are also urged to undertake further studies focusing on these localities.

1985—2019年新疆维吾尔族7~18岁中小学生身高生长趋势及不平衡性分析

目的:了解新疆7~18岁维吾尔族中小学生身高的发育情况、变化趋势及城乡不平衡性。方法:选取1985、2000、2010年和2019年4次全国学生体质与健康调研中的新疆7~18岁维吾尔族中小学生共18112例,分为城男、乡男、城女、乡女4个群体,计算各阶段身高的增幅、每10年增速、发育高峰年龄及变异系数,对差异进行单因素方差分析。结果:1985—2019年,新疆维吾尔族7~18岁中小学生身高总体呈增加趋势,城男、乡男、城女、乡女平均身高分别增长了7.59、5.27、6.00、2.88 cm(P均<0.001)。各年龄组增幅不一,男生和城市学生增幅较大。城市学生2010—2019年身高增速最快(城男4.65 cm/10年、城女4.97 cm/10年),乡村学生1985—2000年身高增速最快(乡男4.04 cm/10年、乡女3.22 cm/10年),2000—2010年各组身高均呈负增长。维吾尔族7~18岁中小学生除城女身高突增高峰年龄提前外,城男、乡男和乡女突增高峰年龄较平稳,近年有下降趋势;维吾尔族城市18岁男女平均身高差从1985的11.39 cm增大到2019年的14.20 cm,乡村地区从1985年的11.44 cm增大到2019年的13.26 cm,乡村学生增长潜力较大。身高不平衡使用身高变异系数(coefficient of variation of height,CV-h)来衡量,结果表明,34年间乡村学生CV-h有减小趋势,城市学生CV-h则增大,2010年开始城市学生CV-h大于乡村学生,各年份男生CV-h均大于女生。结论:维吾尔族7~18岁中小学生身高呈持续增长趋势,总体增速减缓,特别是乡村男女,但城市增速增高;维吾尔族学生存在明显的城乡身高不平衡现象,城市内部不平衡性扩大,乡村减小。应更多地关注这些地区差异,并制定政策和战略,以减少身高不平衡性。

中国儿童尿道下裂发生率的变化趋势

目的 探讨 1987～ 2 0 0 1年间我国围产儿尿道下裂发生率的变化趋势及其原因。方法 采用以医院为基础的监测方法收集资料。调查对象为孕 2 8周至产后 7d住院分娩的围产儿 ,包括活产、死胎和死产。结果 在376 94 6 4例男性围产儿中确诊尿道下裂 1999例 ,平均发生率为 5 .30 / 10 4 。尿道下裂发生率存在逐年上升的趋势。城镇、农村、沿海和内地地区尿道下裂发生率上升趋势明显 ,而边远地区的发生率没有长期趋势。城镇的增加速度高于农村 ,沿海高于内地和边远地区。结论 中国围生儿尿道下裂发生率有上升趋势。

手术切口医院感染危险因素暴露率长期趋势分析

目的研究某医院1993～2000年手术切口医院感染危险因素暴露率的变动趋势,分析危险因素暴露率与手术切口医院感染发病率的关系. 方法采用前瞻性调查的方法监测某医院1993～2000年所有行手术治疗的住院患者手术切口医院感染发生、危险因素暴露情况. 结果 13项危险因素的暴露率有6项因素的暴露率呈明显上升趋势,即为患糖尿病、ICU、导尿、引流、夏季住院、预防用抗生素;仅手术时间均数呈减少趋势;其他6项危险因素的暴露率无明显变化,为化疗、患恶性肿瘤、动静脉插管、污染切口、急诊手术、透析;仅导尿1项因素的暴露率与手术切口医院感染发病率呈负相关,其他因素的暴露率与手术切口医院感染发病率无相关关系;除手术时间外的12项危险因素中有9项因素的暴露者的发病率呈下降趋势. 结论该监测医院手术患者手术切口医院感染发病率的下降主要不是危险因素暴露率的下降引起的.

青藏高原GRACE卫星重力长期变化

本文采用最新的GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment)(RL05)数据,通过水文模型(Global Land Data Assimilation System,GLDAS与Climate Prediction Center,CPC)扣除土壤水及雪水的影响,利用Paulson提供的冰川模型结果扣除GIA(Glacial Isostatic Adjustment)的影响,采用尺度因子的方法减少数据处理过程中误差的影响,最终基于最小二乘计算方法得到2003—2013中国及周边地区长期性重力异常变化情况.结果发现青藏高原有较为明显的重力上升信号,我们认为该信号可能由印度板块俯冲欧亚板块导致青藏高原地壳增厚所引起.接着依据GPS观测结果和艾黎均衡假说构建了地壳形变模型并通过直立长方体模型予以正演模拟分析.以班公湖—怒江断裂带为界将青藏高原划分为南北两大区块,结果显示青藏高原重力异常大致以0.2μGal·a-1的速率在递增,小于GRACE得到的0.3±0.08μGal·a-1的增长速率(对应于地壳增厚速率约3mm·a-1),剩余未解释部分可能与湖水、冰川因素、冻土因素等有关.该结果对于认识青藏高原隆升动力学有一定参考意义.

手术切口医院感染的分布与长期趋势

目的研究某医院1993～2000年手术切口医院感染的分布及其发病率变动趋势.方法采用前瞻性调查的方法监测某医院1993～2000年的所有住院手术患者,手术切口医院感染发生情况.结果1993～2000年该医院住院手术患者共47 133例,其中1 029例发生手术切口医院感染,感染发病率为2.18%;婴儿、幼儿、青少年、成年、老年组手术切口医院感染分别为0、2.01%、1.96%、1.88%、3.01%;手术患者主要分布于外科、妇科、产科、五官科等4个科室,这4个科室的手术患者切口医院感染发病率分别为3.57%、1.05%、0.52%、0.43%;春、夏、秋、冬四季的手术切口医院感染发病率分别为2.02%、2.82%、1.94%、1.99%;清洁切口、清洁污染切口、污染切口的医院感染率分别为1.23%、2.99%、5.80%;1993～2000年各年手术切口医院感染发病率分别为:3.02%、2.28%、2.75%、2.56%、2.18%、2.13%、1.38%、1.44%,呈下降趋势.结论不同亚人群手术切口医院感染发病率明显不同;总手术切口医院感染发病率呈下降趋势;总手术切口医院感染发病率逐渐下降趋势归因于大多数亚人群手术切口医院感染发病率的下降;系统的医院感染监测可有效的降低手术切口医院感染率.

珠江三角洲网河区水位变化趋势研究

根据珠江三角洲网河区29个验潮站的实测验潮记录,应用傅氏变换与最平滤波器串联的方法来消除月均序列的周期波动对确定水位变化趋势的影响,由低通序列一元线性回归分析确定各站水位的变化趋势;结果表明,周期波动对确定海平面变化趋势的影响是显著的.应用经验正交函数（EOF）对网河区的水位变化场进行分解,由相互独立的时间函数和空间特征函数表征网河区区域的水位变化特征;应用时间特征函数计算区域水位的平均变化率为0.02mm/a.根据验潮站的水位变化趋势,探讨网河区水位变化与河床冲淤的关系.

近几十年来珠江三角洲网河水位时空变化及原因初探

根据珠江三角洲网河区25站的验潮序列,应用功率谱分析和正、反傅氏变换方法对网河区月均水位序列的周期变化和趋势变化进行研究,探讨大规模人类采砂活动对珠江三角洲网河区近几十年来水位变化的影响。结果表明:水位序列中包含0.2～11.7a多尺度的显著周期波动;应用正、反傅氏变换方法消除月均序列中的短周期波动(消除6a以短的周期),由低通序列进行一元线性回归分析确定水位变化率,变化率从-3.8到3.7mm/a不等,珠江三角洲网河区水位总体呈上升趋势。从网河区上段到下段再到口门,水位变化趋势由下降转为上升;变化率由负转正,并逐渐增大。网河区上段部分验潮站水位下降主要与西北江网河上段大规模无序采砂引起的河床大幅人为下切有关;大规模采砂导致局部水位下降,使不同时段的水位变化率发生波动,甚至造成部分验潮站的水位变化由缓慢上升转为大幅下降的"逆变"。

湖北省沙洋县2000-2005年农村恶性肿瘤发病及其时间趋势调查分析

目的:回顾性调查湖北省沙洋县2000-2005年农村居民恶性肿瘤发病状况,了解该地区肿瘤发病构成特征和时间趋势,为进一步开展肿瘤人群研究提供科学依据。方法:经由系统培训的乡镇卫生人员收集沙洋县13个乡镇2000-2005年肿瘤发病资料,对该地区肿瘤构成、年龄、性别和地区差异进行分析,并进一步拟合发病率的线性回归模型,估计年度变化百分比(APC),进行时间趋势分析。结果:该县肺癌发病占总肿瘤的23.47%,居于首位,其次为肝癌(21.83%)和胃癌(6.82%);男性平均发病率大于女性,χ2=101.69,P<0.05;男性恶性肿瘤总发病率、肺癌和肝癌发病率的APC值分别为22.93%、34.15%和22.26%;女性恶性肿瘤总发病率、肺癌、胃癌、女性生殖器官及乳腺恶性肿瘤发病率的APC值分别为33.30%、42.10%、42.27%和56.76%,均有逐年上升趋势。沙洋县13个乡镇恶性肿瘤发病率差异有统计学意义,χ2=215.87,P<0.05,肿瘤顺位也不全相同。结论:沙洋县农村居民恶性肿瘤发病有明显的性别和年龄差异,不同地区恶性肿瘤发病也不同,6年间恶性肿瘤发病率呈上升趋势。

大连汉族学生身高的研究

本文采用国际通用的人体测量方法，调查了大连城市７－１７岁的１２１４（男６０１，女６１３）名汉族学生的身高，并利用以往的资料，研讨了大连学生身高的生长发育趋势、性差和生长突增高峰年龄。结果表明：大连汉族学生２１年来身高呈逐渐增高趋势，平均每１０年增长值男性为２．９４ｃｍ；女性为２．０９ｃｍ，但近８年间在８—１０岁各年龄组的男女学生身高均呈负增长。在１９７４年—１９９５年的２１年间，生长突增高峰年龄男性提前２年，女性的则提前１年。

医院感染长期趋势分析

目的研究某医院1993～2000年医院感染的发病率趋势、主要感染部位分布规律,评价医院感染监测工作,为降低医院感染的发生及促进该监测系统的进一步完善提供依据。方法采用前瞻性调查的方法监测某医院1993～2000年的所有住院患者。结果1993～2000年住院患者126665人,其中医院感染5848人,医院感染发病率为4.62%;医院感染6185例次,例次发病率为4.88%;不同科室、不同部位、不同性别医院感染例次发病率呈下降趋势;除1～7岁组例次医院感染发病率无明显下降外,其他年龄组例次医院感染发病率呈明显下降趋势。结论不同亚人群医院感染发病率的下降,使医院感染发病率呈逐渐下降趋势,系统的医院感染监测可有效地降低医院感染率。

广东省7～18岁儿童青少年生长发育长期趋势分析

[目的]研究广东省儿童青少年生长发育的长期变化趋势,进一步改善学生的体质状况.[方法]利用广东省2010、2000、1991年学生体质调查数据,分析7～18岁儿童青少年体质量、身高、体质量指数、胸围变化趋势.[结果]1991年、2000年、2010年分别调查11515人、7200人、14230人.1991-2010年20年间广东省7～18岁城市男女生身高平均增幅分别为3.0 cm和2.4 cm,农村男女生平均增幅分别为4.9 cm和3.9 cm; 2000-2010年,城市男女生身高增幅分别为1.9 cm和1.1 cm,农村男女生平均身高增幅分别为5.0 cm和3.8 cm.20年间城市7～ 18岁男生和女生平均体质量增长4.5 kg和3.0kg,农村男女生分别增长了3.8 kg、2.1 kg,增幅最大的是10～12岁学生.1991-2000年间13 ～18岁学生胸围出现负增长,平均减少1.9 cm,18岁农村男生、女生胸围分别减少了3.1 cm和3.2 cm.1991年城市男女生肥胖率分别为0.6％、0.3％,2010年上升到7.4％和3.7％.[结论]广东省青少年生长发育表现为正向发育的趋势,增高增重趋势主要发生在近10年,城市学生超重和肥胖呈现明显增长趋势,胸围负增长与身高发育不协调.

我国东部4—9月大尺度南北旱涝的特征及变化

研究了我国东部4—9月逐月、逐季降水的跷跷板结构和气候特征,结果表明:不同时段跷跷板结构的位置和强度不同。当时间尺度加大时,南北旱涝特征更明显。定义并计算了1951—2003年我国的南北旱涝指数。对夏季和8月典型南北旱涝年进行差异的显著性t检验,表明南北旱涝年的划分是合理的。研究了1951—2003年我国南北旱涝特征的长期趋势和年代际变化;研究了南北旱涝指数与冷暖事件年的关系。结果表明,冷暖事件年对6月、6—7月以及夏季大尺度南北旱涝有影响,暖事件年有利于发生北旱南涝;而冷事件年则相反。结果还表明,冷暖事件仅是我国南北旱涝分布的一个影响因素。

1985年至2010年中国18个少数民族17岁学生身高趋势分析

目的:分析我国18个少数民族学生1985年至2010年成年身高生长长期变化的特点、规律和趋势。方法:利用1985、1995、2000、2005和2010年全国学生体质调查资料,对蒙古族、回族、维吾尔族、壮族、朝鲜族、藏族、苗族、布依族、侗族、白族、土家族、哈尼族、傣族、傈僳族、佤族、纳西族、土族和羌族18个少数民族17岁学生身高进行了分析。结果:我国大部分少数民族男生的成年身高有很大幅度提高,2010年18个少数民族17岁男生平均身高均超过162 cm,回族、蒙古族、朝鲜族17岁男生平均身高均超过170 cm;身高每10年增速超过2 cm的民族分别是回族(2.64 cm/10年)和侗族男生(2.05 cm/10年),身高每10年增速超过1 cm的民族有朝鲜族(1.99 cm/10年)、藏族(1.90 cm/10年)、哈尼族(1.80 cm/10年)等12个少数民族。2010年,所调查的18个少数民族17岁女生平均身高均超过150 cm,有15个少数民族女生的成年身高出现不同程度的增长,身高每10年增速超过1 cm的民族分别是回族(1.56 cm/10年)和朝鲜族女生(1.29 cm/10年),身高增长幅度具有显著性的民族有回族(3.89cm)、朝鲜族(3.23 cm)、侗族(2.35 cm)等9个少数民族(P<0.05)。结论:我国大部分少数民族学生出现了较为明显的生长长期趋势,但各民族男、女生成年身高增长幅度存在明显不平衡,要给予生长长期趋势增长缓慢的少数民族更高的关注度。同时,对成年身高增长较为迅速的少数民族亦要注意其生长长期趋势所带来的负面效应。