Risk assessment is essential for the safe and reliable operation of cyber physical power system. Traditional security risk assessment methods do not take integration of cyber system and physical system of power grid i...Risk assessment is essential for the safe and reliable operation of cyber physical power system. Traditional security risk assessment methods do not take integration of cyber system and physical system of power grid into account. In order to solve this problem, security risk assessment algorithm of cyber physical power system based on rough set and gene expression programming is proposed. Firstly, fast attribution reduction based on binary search algorithm is presented. Secondly, security risk assessment function for cyber physical power system is mined based on gene expression programming. Lastly, security risk levels of cyber physical power system are predicted and analyzed by the above function model. Experimental results show that security risk assessment function model based on the proposed algorithm has high efficiency of function mining, accuracy of security risk level prediction and strong practicality.展开更多
In this paper, we propose a non-cooperative differential game theory based resource allocation approach for the network security risk assessment. For the risk assessment, the resource will be used for risk assess, inc...In this paper, we propose a non-cooperative differential game theory based resource allocation approach for the network security risk assessment. For the risk assessment, the resource will be used for risk assess, including response cost and response negative cost. The whole assessment process is considered as a differential game for optimal resource control. The proposed scheme can be obtained through the Nash Equilibrium. It is proved that the game theory based algorithm is applicable and the optimal resource level can be achieved based on the proposed algorithm.展开更多
The weights of the drought risk index (DRI), which linearly combines the reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability, are difficult to obtain due to complexities in water security during drought periods. Therefore, d...The weights of the drought risk index (DRI), which linearly combines the reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability, are difficult to obtain due to complexities in water security during drought periods. Therefore, drought entropy was used to determine the weights of the three critical indices. Conventional simulation results regarding the risk load of water security during drought periods were often regarded as precise. However, neither the simulation process nor the DRI gives any consideration to uncertainties in drought events. Therefore, the Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory and the evidential reasoning algorithm were introduced, and the DRI values were calculated with consideration of uncertainties of the three indices. The drought entropy and evidential reasoning algorithm were used in a case study of the Haihe River Basin to assess water security risks during drought periods. The results of the new DRI values in two scenarios were compared and analyzed. It is shown that the values of the DRI in the D-S evidence algorithm increase slightly from the original results of Zhang et al. (2005), and the results of risk assessment of water security during drought periods are reasonable according to the situation in the study area. This study can serve as a reference for further practical application and planning in the Haihe River Basin, and other relevant or similar studies.展开更多
Aiming at the issues of privacy security in Internet of Things (IoT) applications, we propose an effective risk assessment model to handle probabilistic causality of evaluation factors and derive weights of influenc...Aiming at the issues of privacy security in Internet of Things (IoT) applications, we propose an effective risk assessment model to handle probabilistic causality of evaluation factors and derive weights of influence-relation of propagation paths. The model undertakes probabilistic inference and generates values of risk probability for assets and propagation paths by using Bayesian causal relation-network and prior probability. According to Bayes- ian network (BN) structure, the risk analysts can easily find out relevant risk propagation paths and calculate weight values of each path by using decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL). This model is applied to determine the risk level of assets and each risk propagation path as well as implement countermeasure of recommendation in accordance with evaluation results. The simulation analysis shows that this model efficiently revises recommendation of countermeasures for decision-makers and mitigates risk to an acceptable range, in addition, it provides the theoretical basis for decision-making of privacy security risk assessment (PSRA) for further development in lot area.展开更多
基金support by National Natural Science Foundation of China(61202354,51507084)Nanjing University of Post and Telecommunications Science Foundation(NUPTSF)(NT214203)
文摘Risk assessment is essential for the safe and reliable operation of cyber physical power system. Traditional security risk assessment methods do not take integration of cyber system and physical system of power grid into account. In order to solve this problem, security risk assessment algorithm of cyber physical power system based on rough set and gene expression programming is proposed. Firstly, fast attribution reduction based on binary search algorithm is presented. Secondly, security risk assessment function for cyber physical power system is mined based on gene expression programming. Lastly, security risk levels of cyber physical power system are predicted and analyzed by the above function model. Experimental results show that security risk assessment function model based on the proposed algorithm has high efficiency of function mining, accuracy of security risk level prediction and strong practicality.
基金supported by the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2015M570936)National Science Foundation Project of P.R.China(No.61501026,61272506)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.FRF-TP-15032A1)
文摘In this paper, we propose a non-cooperative differential game theory based resource allocation approach for the network security risk assessment. For the risk assessment, the resource will be used for risk assess, including response cost and response negative cost. The whole assessment process is considered as a differential game for optimal resource control. The proposed scheme can be obtained through the Nash Equilibrium. It is proved that the game theory based algorithm is applicable and the optimal resource level can be achieved based on the proposed algorithm.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.51190094,50909073,and 51179130)the Hubei Province Natural Science Foundation(Grant No.2010CDB08401)
文摘The weights of the drought risk index (DRI), which linearly combines the reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability, are difficult to obtain due to complexities in water security during drought periods. Therefore, drought entropy was used to determine the weights of the three critical indices. Conventional simulation results regarding the risk load of water security during drought periods were often regarded as precise. However, neither the simulation process nor the DRI gives any consideration to uncertainties in drought events. Therefore, the Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory and the evidential reasoning algorithm were introduced, and the DRI values were calculated with consideration of uncertainties of the three indices. The drought entropy and evidential reasoning algorithm were used in a case study of the Haihe River Basin to assess water security risks during drought periods. The results of the new DRI values in two scenarios were compared and analyzed. It is shown that the values of the DRI in the D-S evidence algorithm increase slightly from the original results of Zhang et al. (2005), and the results of risk assessment of water security during drought periods are reasonable according to the situation in the study area. This study can serve as a reference for further practical application and planning in the Haihe River Basin, and other relevant or similar studies.
基金Supported by the National Key Technology Research and Development Program in the 12th Five year Plan of China(2012BAH08B02)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61272513)the Project of Humanities and Social Sciences of Ministry of Education in China(10YJC630385)
文摘Aiming at the issues of privacy security in Internet of Things (IoT) applications, we propose an effective risk assessment model to handle probabilistic causality of evaluation factors and derive weights of influence-relation of propagation paths. The model undertakes probabilistic inference and generates values of risk probability for assets and propagation paths by using Bayesian causal relation-network and prior probability. According to Bayes- ian network (BN) structure, the risk analysts can easily find out relevant risk propagation paths and calculate weight values of each path by using decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL). This model is applied to determine the risk level of assets and each risk propagation path as well as implement countermeasure of recommendation in accordance with evaluation results. The simulation analysis shows that this model efficiently revises recommendation of countermeasures for decision-makers and mitigates risk to an acceptable range, in addition, it provides the theoretical basis for decision-making of privacy security risk assessment (PSRA) for further development in lot area.