Evolution of Coulomb failure stress in Sulaiman Lobe,Pakistan,and its implications for seismic hazard assessment

In this research work,we present the evolution of Coulomb failure stress(CFS)in the Sulaiman Lobe and its implications for seismic hazard assessment.The Chaman transform fault,~1,000 km long,is the major active fault that marks the western boundary between Pakistan and Afghanistan on the Indian Plate.To date,few studies have been conducted to unveil the interactions among earthquakes and the implications of these interactions for seismic hazard assessment in the region.We thoroughly investigated the published and online catalog to construct a sequence of major earthquakes that occurred in this region during the past.The final earthquake sequence was composed of 15 earthquakes of M_(w)≥6.0,beginning with the 1888 earthquake.We used the stress-triggering theory to numerically simulate the evolution of CFS caused by these earthquakes.The numerical results revealed that 8 out of 15earthquakes were triggered by the preceding earthquakes.The earthquakes in 1908,1910,1935,1966,and 1997 were rather independent earthquakes in this sequence.Although the epicenters of the 1975a and 1975b earthquakes were in the stress shadow zone,the partial rupture segments of both these earthquakes were in high-CFS regions.The CFS induced by the 1935 earthquake was notable,as it later triggered the 2008 doublet.Moreover,our results revealed that the northern segment of the Chaman Fault,the southern segment of the Ghazaband Fault,and the northwestern segment of the Urghargai Fault demonstrated a high change in CFS that could trigger seismicity in these regions.The necessary arrangements must therefore be made to mitigate any possible seismic hazards in the region.

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Kazakhstan and Almaty city in peak ground accelerations

As for many post-soviet countries, Kazakhstan's building code for seismic design was based on a deterministic approach. Recently, Kazakhstan seismologists are engaged to adapt the PSHA(probabilistic hazard assessment) procedure to the large amount of available geological, geophysical and tectonic Kazakh data and to meet standard requirements for the Eurocode 8. The new procedure has been used within National projects to develop the Probabilistic GSZ(General Seismic Zoning) maps of the Kazakhstan territory and the SMZ(Probabilistic Seismic Microzoning) maps of Almaty city. They agree with the seismic design principles of Eurocode 8 and are expressed in terms of not only seismic intensity,but also engineering parameters(peak ground acceleration PGA). The whole packet of maps has been developed by the Institute of Seismology, together with other Kazakhstan Institutions. Our group was responsible for making analysis in PGA. The GSZ maps and hazard assessment maps for SMZ in terms of PGA for return periods 475 and 2475 years are considered in the article.

State of art of seismic design and seismic hazard analysis for oil and gas pipeline system

The purpose of this paper is to adopt the uniform confidence method in both water pipeline design and oil-gas pipeline design.Based on the importance of pipeline and consequence of its failure,oil and gas pipeline can be classified into three pipe classes,with exceeding probabilities over 50 years of 2%,5% and 10%,respectively.Performance-based design requires more information about ground motion,which should be obtained by evaluating seismic safety for pipeline engineering site.Different from a city's water pipeline network,the long-distance oil and gas pipeline system is a spatially linearly distributed system.For the uniform confidence of seismic safety,a long-distance oil and pipeline formed with pump stations and different-class pipe segments should be considered as a whole system when analyzing seismic risk.Considering the uncertainty of earthquake magnitude,the design-basis fault displacements corresponding to the different pipeline classes are proposed to improve deterministic seismic hazard analysis(DSHA).A new empirical relationship between the maximum fault displacement and the surface-wave magnitude is obtained with the supplemented earthquake data in East Asia.The estimation of fault displacement for a refined oil pipeline in Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake is introduced as an example in this paper.

Inferring seismic hazard in Sichuan-Yunnan region of China based on the modern earthquake catalogue (1980-2019)

Based on the modern earthquake catalogue,the incomplete centroidal voronoi tessellation(ICVT)method was used in this study to estimate the seismic hazard in Sichuan-Yunnan region of China.We calculated spatial distributions of the total seismic hazard and background seismic hazard in this area.The Bayesian delaunay tessellation smoothing method put forward by Ogata was used to calculate the spatial distributions of b-value.The results show that seismic hazards in Sichuan-Yunan region are high,and areas with relatively high hazard values are distributed along the main faults,while seismic hazards in Sichuan basin are relatively low.

Seismic Hazard Assessment in the Boundary Region of Indo-China:First Phase of Implementation of the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) in Continental Asia

The primary goal of the demonstration project endorsed by the Scientific and Technical Committee for IDNDR in 1992 is to ensure that national agencies are able to assess seismic hazard in a regionally coordinated fashion by using advanced methods.China,as a Regional Center of Central Southern Asia,has contacted with countries of the region to realistically practice seismic hazard assessments of Continental Asia.A test area located in the collision boundary between the Indian and Eurasian plates was chosen to examine the seismic hazard assessment approach in the regional coordinates.The seismotectonics and three versions of seismic sources of the test area are described in this paper and under the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program(GSHAP),guidelines an earthquake catalogue of the test area was assembled.Because of the incompleteness of earthquake data in different countries,we adopt different time windows for different magnitude intervals in order to obtain the seismicity parameters of sources.By

A Seismic Hazard Map Based on Geology and Shear-wave Velocity in Rawalpindi–Islamabad,Pakistan

The‘twin cities’district of Rawalpindi–Islamabad is among the most endangered seismic regions in Pakistan,with the seismic hazard assessed(0.32 g)to intensity IX MMI for a 475-year return period.A seismic hazard map for Rawalpindi–Islamabad is presented herein,based on 85 shear-wave velocity(VS)profiles obtained through geophysical H/V measurements and from the geological map of the region.Relationships between the average top thirty-meter shear-wave velocities(VS30)and surficial geological units have been determined.The peak ground acceleration(PGA)maps for 150,475 and 2475-year return periods were converted into a seismic intensity map.Intensity increments for different soils were used to compute PGA values for 150,475 and 2475-year return periods.Sites located on softer ground experienced a higher degree of damage from moderate earthquakes.Due to the presence of soft clay or liquefiable soil and lateral spreading,a few locations may be classified as hybrid sites class C and D.This map is a critical step in facilitating code-based site classification and seismic design throughout Rawalpindi–Islamabad.Although the seismic hazard map based on seismic intensities is no longer used in engineering geology,it is still important in seismological analysis and for civil protection purposes.

Seismic hazard prediction using multispectral amplification maps in a complex topographic area: A case study of Qiaozhuang town, Sichuan Province, Southwest China

Earthquakes can cause widely distributed slope failures and damage in mountainous areas.The accurate prediction of ground motions in mountainous areas is essential for managing the seismic risk of urban cities near mountains but is restricted primarily by complex seismic site amplification effects in areas of uneven terrain.This study selected Qiaozhuang town located in the Qingchuan–Pingwu fault zone,Southwest China,as a case study.A simulator for mapped seismic responses using a hybrid model(Si Se RHMap)was applied to compute the multispectral seismic topographic amplification maps at the three slope units surrounding Qiaozhuang town(Weigan hill,Mt.Dong,and Mt.Shizi).Post-earthquake damage survey maps,1 D seismic site response spectral ratios,and H/V spectral ratios of earthquake data were used to validate the computed seismic site amplification factors and resonance frequencies.The results suggest that strong topographic amplification effects usually occur at distinct slope locations,such as hilltops,convex slope positions,upslope,and narrow ridges.The computed topographic amplification factors in the study area reached up to 2.4 at upslope or hilltops,and the resonance frequencies were between 3 and 10 Hz.Topographic effects can be as important as stratigraphic effects when assessing seismic amplification effects in the study area.We conclude that both topographic and stratigraphic effects should be considered in the comprehensive seismic hazard assessment of the study area or other similar mountain towns.

Comprehensive Studies of Seismic Forecast and Seismic Hazard Assessment in Armenia, Current State and Prospects

The study of geophysical processes in different layers of the Earth,seismic hazard assessment,earthquake prediction,etc.are topical fundamental and applied problems.The development of a modern adequate methodology for assessing seismic hazards,operational forecasting of earthquakes.

Local seismic hazard map based on the response spectra of stiff and very dense soils in Bengkulu city,Indonesia

It is well known that seismic hazard assessment should be implemented to design infrastructures in an earthquake-prone area such as Bengkulu.This paper presents local seismic hazard maps based on the response spectra of stiff and very dense soils in Bengkulu city,Indonesia.We collect the soil data and conduct the seismic wave propagation.The input motion for wave propagation analysis is generated from the spectral acceleration curves of stiff and dense soils.Various ground motion parameters such as peak ground acceleration,short-period and long-period spectral accelerations,and amplification factors are presented in microzonation maps.The results show that the peak ground acceleration in the study area ranges from 0.2 to 0.8 g,while the spectral acceleration varies between 0.5-1.5 g and 0.4-0.8 g for periods of 0.2 and 1 s,respectively.The amplification factor of the site is observed to vary from 0.5 to 1.6.Considering other spectral accelerations in Bengkulu,the spectral acceleration design shows a good performance.The results indicate the site characteristics of Bengkulu city,which can provide engineers with site class for structural building design.

Assessment of seismic hazard of roller compacted concrete dam site in Gilgit-Baltistan of northern Pakistan

The proposed site of the Diamer Bhasha Dam in northern Pakistan is situated in an active tectonic zone with intensive seismicity,which makes it necessary for seismic hazard analysis(SHA).Deterministic and probabilistic approaches have been used for SHA of the dam site.The Main Mantle Thrust(MMT),Main Karakaram Thrust(MKT),Raikot-Sassi Fault(RKSF)and Kohistan Fault(KF)have been considered as major seismic sources,all of which can create maximum ground shaking with maximum potential earthquake(MPE).Deterministically estimated MPE for magnitudes of 7.8,7.7,7.6,and 7.1 can be produced from MMT,MKT,RKSF and KF,respectively.The corresponding peak ground accelerations(PGA)of 0.07,0.11,0.13 and 0.05 g can also be generated from these earthquakes,respectively.The deterministic analysis predicts a so-called floating earthquake as a MPE of magnitude=7.1 as close as 10 km away from the site.The corresponding PGA was computed as 0.38 g for a maximum design earthquake at the project site.However,the probabilistic analysis revealed that the PGA with 50%probability of exceedance in 100 years is 0.18 g.Thus,this PGA value related to the operational basis earthquake(OBE)is suggested for the design of this project with shear wave velocity(V_(s30))equal to 760 m/s under dense soil and soft rock conditions.

Seismic hazard analysis for engineering sites based on the stochastic finite-fault method

Seismic hazard analyses are mainly performed using either deterministic or probabilistic methods.However,there are still some defects in these statistical model-based approaches for regional seismic risk assessment affected by the near-field of large earthquakes.Therefore,we established a deterministic seismic hazard analysis method that can characterize the entire process of ground motion propagation based on stochastic finite-fault simulation,and we chose the site of the Xiluodu dam to demonstrate the method.This method can characterize earthquake source properties more realistically than other methods and consider factors such as the path and site attenuation of seismic waves.It also has high computational efficiency and is convenient for engineering applications.We first analyzed the complexity of seismogenic structures in the Xiluodu dam site area,and then an evaluation system for ground motion parameters that considers various uncertainties is constructed based on a stochastic finitefault simulation.Finally,we assessed the seismic hazard of the dam site area comprehensively.The proposed method was able to take into account the complexity of the seismogenic structures affecting the dam site and provide multi-level parameter evaluation results corresponding to different risk levels.These results can be used to construct a dam safety assessment system of an earthquake in advance that provides technical support for rapidly and accurately assessing the post-earthquake damage state of a dam,thus determining the influence of an earthquake on dam safety and mitigating the risk of potential secondary disasters.

Finite element simulation of stress change for the M_(S)7.4 Madoi earthquake and implications for regional seismic hazards

On May 22,2021,the M_(S)7.4 earthquake occurred in Madoi County,Qinghai Province;it was another strong event that occurred within the Bayan Har block after the Dari M_(S)7.7 earthquake in 1947.An earthquake is bound to cast stress to the surrounding faults,thus affecting the regional seismic hazard.To understand these issues,a three-dimensional viscoelastic finite element model of the eastern Bayan Har block and its adjacent areas was constructed.Based on the co-seismic rupture model of the Madoi earthquake,we analyzed the co-and postseismic Coulomb stress change caused by the Madoi earthquake on the surrounding major faults.The results show that the Madoi earthquake caused significant co-seismic stress increases in the Tuosuo Lake and Maqin-Maqu segments of the East Kunlun fault(>10 kPa),which exceeded the proposed threshold of stress triggering.By integrating the accumulation rate of the inter-seismic tectonic stress,we conclude that the Madoi earthquake caused future strong earthquakes in the Tuosuo Lake and Maqin-Maqu segments of the East Kunlun fault to advance by 55.6-623 and 24.7-123 a,respectively.Combined with the influence of the Madoi earthquake and the elapsed time of the last strong earthquake,these two segments have approached or even exceeded the recurrence interval of the fault prescribed by previous research.In the future,it is necessary to focus greater attention on the seismic hazard of the Maqin-Maqu and Tuosuo Lake segments.This study provides a mechanical reference to understand the seismic hazard of the East Kunlun fault in the future,particularly to determine the seismic potential region.

Preliminary Seismic Hazard Assessment in West Africa Based on Incomplete Seismic Catalogs

West Africa is considered a region of low seismicity. However, the monitoring of earthquake activity by local seismic arrays began very early (as early as 1914) in West Africa but seismic catalogs are very incomplete. In 1991, Bertil studied the seismicity of West Africa based on networks of seismic stations in Ivory Coast and neighboring countries. The reference work of Ambraseys and Adams as well as the recent earthquakes given by the international data centres on the seismicity of West Africa were also used for the computations of earthquake hazard parameters. Different earthquake event data have been compiled and homogenised to moment magnitude (Mw). The obtained catalog covers a period of over four centuries (1615-2021) and contains large historical events and recent complete observations. The complete catalog part has been subdivided into four complete subcatalogs with each a level of completeness. The minimum magnitude and the maximum observed magnitude are equal to 2.89 and 6.8 respectively for the whole catalog. The seismic code software developed by Kijko was used to calculate the earthquake hazard parameters. The results give a b value of 0.83 ± 0.08 for the whole period and preliminary seismic hazards curves are also plotted for return periods 25, 50 and 100 years. This is a good and practical example showing that this procedure can be used for seismic hazard assessment in West Africa.

Location of high seismic activity zones and seismic hazard assessment in Zabrze Bielszowice coal mine using passive tomography

In the paper results of passive tomography calculations have been presented to assess rockburst hazard and locate high seismic activity zones in the vicinity of longwall 306 in Zabrze Bielszowice coal mine. The area of study was 1000 m in X direction by 900 m in Y direction. The zones of high values of P-wave propagation velocity have been found to correlate with the distribution of large seismic tremors.

Seismic hazard assessment of the Three Gorges Project

Seismic monitoring data for the past 50 years in the Three Gorges Reservoir area show that the reservoir head area is a typical weak seismic region with low seismicity before impoundment and that the epicenters were concentrated in the east and west sides of the Zigui Basin,most of which were natural tectonic earthquakes.After impoundment,the seismic activity shifted to the segment between Badong and Zigui along the Yangtze River,mainly within 5 km of the reservoir bank.The seismogenesis was categorized into four types:Karst collapse earthquakes,earthquakes caused by Karst gas explosion,mining tunnel collapse earthquakes,and rock (terrane) slip earthquakes,all of which are related to the lithology,structure,and tectonics of near-surface geological bodies of the area.Compared with the seismicity before impoundment,the seismic frequency increase was remarkable,with most of the magnitudes below Ms2.0.Therefore,the intensity of the earthquakes remained at a low level.On November 22,2008,a magnitude 4.1 earthquake,the largest earthquake recorded since impoundment,occurred in Quyuan Town,Zigui County.The intensity and PGA of reservoir-induced earthquakes are higher than those of tectonic earthquakes with equal magnitude,but the peak intensity of reservoir-induced earthquakes is not likely to go beyond that of the estimated range from earlier studies.

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Nepal

The seismic ground motion hazard for Nepal has been estimated using a probabilistic approach.A catalogue of earthquakes has been compiled for Nepal and the surrounding region(latitude 26°N and 31.7°N and longitude 79°E and 90°E)from 1255 to 2011.The distribution of catalogued earthquakes,together with available geological and tectonic information were used to delineate twenty-three seismic source zones in Nepal and the surrounding region.By using the seismic source information and probabilistic earthquake hazard parameters in conjunction with a selected ground motion prediction relationship,peak ground accelerations(PGAs)have been calculated at bedrock level with 63%,10%,and 2%probability of exceedance in 50 years.The estimated PGA values are in the range of 0.07–0.16 g,0.21–0.62 g,and 0.38–1.1 g for 63%,10%,and 2%probability of exceedance in 50 years,respectively.The resulting ground motion maps show different characteristics of PGA distribution,i.e.,high hazard in the far-western and eastern sections,and low hazard in southern Nepal.The quantified PGA values at bedrock level provide information for microzonation studies in different parts of the country.

Coulomb stress evolution along the Kongur Extensional System since 1895 and present seismic hazard

The present-day tectonic activities on the northeastern margin of the Pamir Plateau are mainly E-W oriented extensions, among which the Kongur Extensional System(KES) plays an important role in the internal expansion of the Pamir. As the largest earthquake since Taxkorgan earthquakes in 1895 and 1896, the Aketao earthquake occurred on the Muji fault on the northern portion of the KES in 2016. Since then, the trend of seismic activities along the KES has been paid much attention to. Based on the visco elastic layered lithosphere model, we calculate the co-seismic and post-seismic stress changes caused by five historical earthquakes on the KES and its adjacent areas since 1895, and analyze the interaction among strong earthquakes. The results show that all of the historical earthquakes after 1895 occurred in the areas where the co-seismic and post-seismic Coulomb stress increased. Coulomb stress loading at the hypocenters of the 1896 Taxkorgan earthquake, the 1974 Markansu earthquake and the 2016 Aketao earthquake were 0.251 MPa, 0.013 MPa and 0.563 MPa, respectively. The three earthquakes were catalyzed by such variations. The historical earthquakes increased the stress state on most segments of the Southern Kungai Mountain fault and Kongur fault along the KES. In particular, we can identify 2 visible earthquake gaps with increasing seismic hazard formed on the Qimugan segment and Bulunkou segment of the KES. The Qimugan section and the Bulunkou section are located at the fault transition zone with concentrated stress and high extension rate, so great attention should be paid to their seismic hazard at present day.

Active Fault Exploration and Seismic Hazard Assessment in Fuzhou City

It has been proven by a number of earthquake case studies that an active fault-induced earthquake beneath a city can be devastating. It is an urgent issue for seismic hazard reduction to explore the distribution of active faults beneath the urban area and identify the seismic source and the risks underneath. As a pilot project of active fault exploration in China, the project, entitled “Active fault exploration and seismic hazard assessment in Fuzhou City", started in early 2001 and passed the check before acceptance of China Earthquake Administration in August 2004. The project was aimed to solve a series of scientific issues such as fault location, dating, movement nature, deep settings, seismic risk and hazard, preparedness of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction, and etc. by means of exploration and assessment of active faults by stages, i.e., the preliminary survey and identification of active faults in target area, the exploration of deep seismotectonic settings, the risk evaluation of active seismogenic faults, the construction of geographic information system of active faults, and so on. A lot of exploration methods were employed in the project such as the detection of absorbed mercury, free mercury and radon in soil, the geological radar, multi-channel DC electrical method, tsansient electromagnetic method, shallow seismic refraction and reflection, effect contrast of explored sources, and various sounding experiments, to establish the buried Quaternary standard section of the Fuzhou basin. By summing up, the above explorations and experiments have achieved the following results and conclusions: (1)The results of the synthetic pilot project of active fault exploration in Fuzhou City demonstrate that, on the basis of sufficient collection, sorting out and analysis of geological, geophysical and borehole data, the best method for active fault exploration (location) and seismic risk assessment (dating and characterizing) in urban area is the combination of various approaches, that is, the possible location of active fault determined by using geochemical exploration as a guide “scout", the shallow seismic sounding as the main tool, the electromagnetic method as a supplement, establishing the standard Quaternary profile or stratigraphic sequence from drilling and various geophysical parameters from borehole logs as methods to correct and verify the data above. And in addition, the method also includes the field surveys on fault exposures, trenching, paleoearthquake investigation, dating and comparison of lithology, strata sequence, absolute or relative ages of the cores on the two sides of buried faults. (2)The Fuzhou basin locates under the regional seismotectonic settings which have the potential of moderate earthquake. Comparatively, the region is less affected by the “Taiwan dynamic Antenna"; (3)The activity of the major faults in Fuzhou basin is weak in general. All the six identified target faults are not Holocene faults, among which the Bayi Reservoir-Shanggan fault and the Minhou-Nanyu fault are dormant at least since the mid Epipleistocene time, and the rest are dormant since the Epipleistocene time; (4)In terms of deep-seated structures beneath the basin, there is no evidence indicating the possible occurrence of the underneath strong destructive earthquakes. The adjacent Changle-Zhao’an fault zone is the potential seismic source which may possibly affect Fuzhou City; (5)There exists potential of moderate-strong earthquake on the major faults of the region, but the probability is low; (6)The seismic hazards are weak in the region and the surface earthquake fractures are not likely to occur; (7)The first geographic information system of active faults is developed with functions of information query and display, data management, analysis and processing, etc.

Site specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis at Dubai Creek on the west coast of UAE

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was conducted to establish the hazard spectra for a site located at Dubai Creek on the west coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The PSHA considered all the seismogenic sources that affect the site, including plate boundaries such as the Makran subduction zone, the Zagros fold-thrust region and the transition fault system between them; and local crustal faults in UAE. PSHA indicated that local faults dominate the hazard. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the 475-year return period spectrum is 0.17 g and 0.33 g for the 2,475-year return period spectrum. The hazard spectra are then employed to establish rock ground motions using the spectral matching technique.

Seismic Hazard Assessment of District Mansehra,Khyber Pakhtoonkhawa,Pakistan

The site of Mansehra is located seismically in an active regime,known as the Crystalline Nappe Zone and Hazara-Kashmir Syntaxis in NW Himalayas,Pakistan.Seismic Hazard Assessment(SHA) for the site has been carried out by considering the earthquake source zones,selection of appropriate attenuation equations,near fault effects and maximum potential magnitude estimation.The Mansehra Thrust,Oghi Fault,Banna Thrust,Balakot Shear Zone,Main Boundary Thrust,Panjal Thrust,Jhelum Fault and Muzaffarabad Fault and,further to the south,the Sanghargali,Nathiagali,and Thandiani Thrusts are the most critical tectonic features within the 50 km radius of Mansehra.Using the available instrumental seismological data from 1904 to 2007,SHA has been carried out.Other reactivated critical tectonic features in the area have been investigated.Among them the Balakot-Bagh fault,with the fault length of 120 km from Balakot to Poonch,has been considered as the most critical tectonic feature on the basis of geological/structural/seismological data.The potential earthquake of maximum magnitude 7.8 has been assigned to the Balakot-Bagh fault using four regression relations.The peak ground acceleration value of 0.25 g(10% probability of exceedance for 50 years) and 0.5 g has been calculated with the help of the attenuation equation using probabilistic and deterministic approaches.