Resilience-incorporated seismic risk assessment of precast concrete frames with“dry”connections

A resilience-incorporated risk assessment framework is proposed and demonstrated in this study to manifest the advantageous seismic resilience of precast concrete frame(PCF)structures with“dry”connections in terms of their low damage and rapid recovery.The framework integrates various uncertainties in the seismic hazard,fragility,capacity,demand,loss functions,and post-earthquake recovery.In this study,the PCF structures are distinguished from ordinary reinforced concrete frame(RCF)structures by characterizing multiple limit states for the PCF based on its unique damage mechanisms.Accordingly,probabilistic story-wise pushover analyses are performed to yield story-wise capacities for the predefined limit states.In the seismic resilience analysis,a step-wise recovery model is proposed to idealize the functionality recovery process,with separate considerations of the repair and non-repair events.The recovery model leverages the economic loss and downtime to delineate the stochastic post-earthquake recovery curves for the resilience loss estimation.As such,contingencies in the probabilistic post-earthquake repairs are incorporated and the empirical judgments on the recovery parameters are largely circumvented.The proposed framework is demonstrated through a comparative study between two“dry”connected PCFs and one RCF designed as alternative structural systems for a prototype building.The results from the risk quantification indicate that the PCFs show reduced loss hazards and lower expected losses relative to the RCF.Particularly,the PCF equipped with energy dissipation devices at the“dry”connections largely reduces the expected economic loss,downtime,and resilience loss by 29%,56%,and 60%,respectively,compared to the RCF.

The Role of the National Significant Seismic Monitoring and Protection Regions Institution:From the Perspective of the RiskSociety Theory

Earthquake disaster risk,as a typical social disaster risk,is one of the most important risks in modern Chinese society.This study gives definitions of the institution,describes the formation history,the connotations and development and analyzes its role in the control of major social risks caused by earthquakes.Finally,the paper presents recommendations for continuous improvement of this institution under the guidance of risk society theory,and for its application to the government reform and social governance.

Detailed seismic risk analysis of electrical substation equipment using a reliability based approach

This paper proposes a risk analysis framework for substation structures based on reliability methods.Even though several risk assessment approaches have been developed for buildings,detailed risk analysis procedures for infrastructure components have been lacking in prior studies.The proposed framework is showcased by its application to a system of interconnected structures at a power substation in Tehran.Finite element models of structures are developed and validated in accordance with previous experiments.The uncertainties in the material,mass,and geometric properties of structures are described by random variables that are input to the finite element model.An artificial ground motion model is employed to comprehensively consider uncertainty in ground motion.Monte Carlo sampling is subsequently conducted on the library of probabilistic models.The analysis resulted in the loss distribution in the life cycle of structures.Additionally,the loss associated with six earthquake scenarios having specific magnitudes and return periods is computed.The application provides insight into the most vulnerable equipment in the considered system.Furthermore,introduced risk measures can guide stakeholders to make risk-based decisions to optimize design or prioritize a retrofit of infrastructure components under conditions of uncertainty.

APPLICATIONS OF FRACTAL AND CHAOTIC LAWS IN SEISMIC DISSIPATED ENERGY IN AN ENERGY SYSTEM OF ENGINEERING STRUCTURES

Based on the intrinsic characters of the fractal and chaotic dynamic systems of seismic dissipated energy active intensity E d and active intensity of seismic dissipated energy moment I e,the evolutional laws of the long term system and short term system behavior are discussed respectively.Active and passive earthquake control parameters,maintenance decision and inputted energy optimization of system are discussed by means of the predictive results of short term behavior in practical engineering structures; earthquake resistant design probability,maintenance probability,seismic risk analysis and seismic hazard analysis are also discussed by means of the predictive results of long term behavior probability in practical engineering structures.The content might be valuable for the practical applications of earthquake resistance theory and method,and for earthquake control and earthquake reduction problems in practical engineering structures.

Assessment of Intangible Losses in Earthquake Engineering

In order to find optimum design parameters in earthquake engineering, an objective function is optimized. This function comprises the initial cost of a structure and the cost due to the damage of earthquakes. Intangible losses may be included in the latter, such as how much society is willing to invest to preserve a human life. In this paper, the expression of the objective function is developed in terms of the seismic design coefficient, and the aforementioned intangible loss is calculated from both the individual point of view and that of society. The calculation of the intangible is based on utility curves. Finally, optimum seismic design coefficients are calculated for a firm ground site.

Assessing current faulting behaviors and seismic risk of the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault zone from seismicity parameters

Using the data of regional seismic network, this paper analyzes the current faulting behaviors of different segments of the Anninghe-Zemuhe fault zone, western Sichuan, and identifies the likely risky segments for potential large earthquakes. The authors map the probable asperities from the abnormally low b-value distribution, develop and employ a method for identifying current faulting behaviors of individual fault segment from the combinations of multiple seismicity parameter values, and make an effort to estimate the average recurrence intervals of character-istic earthquakes by using the parameters of magnitude-frequency relationship of the asperity segment. The result suggests that the studied fault zone contains 5 segments of different current faulting behaviors. Among them, the Mianning-Xichang segment of the Anninghe fault has been locked under high stress, its central part is probably an asperity with a relatively large scale. The Xichang-Puge segment of the Zemuhe fault displays very low seismicity under low stress. Both the locked segment and the low-seismicity segment can be outlined on the across-profile of relocated hypocenter depths. The Mianning-Xichang segment is identified to be the one with potential large earth-quake risk, for which the average recurrence interval between the latest M = 6.7 earthquake in 1952 and the next characteristic event is estimated to be 55 to 67 years, and the magnitude of the potential earthquake between 7.0 and 7.5. Also, it has been preliminarily suggested that for a certain fault segment, its faulting behaviors may change and evolve with time gradually.

Resolving co- and early post-seismic slip variations of the 2021 MW 7.4 Madoi earthquake in east Bayan Har block with a block-wide distributed deformation mode from satellite synthetic aperture radar data

On 21 May 2021(UTC),an MW 7.4 earthquake jolted the east Bayan Har block in the Tibetan Plateau.The earthquake received widespread attention as it is the largest event in the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings since the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake,and especially in proximity to the seismic gaps on the east Kunlun fault.Here we use satellite interferometric synthetic aperture radar data and subpixel offset observations along the range directions to characterize the coseismic deformation of the earthquake.Range offset displacements depict clear surface ruptures with a total length of~170 km involving two possible activated fault segments in the earthquake.Coseismic modeling results indicate that the earthquake was dominated by left-lateral strike-slip motions of up to 7 m within the top 12 km of the crust.The well-resolved slip variations are characterized by five major slip patches along strike and 64%of shallow slip deficit,suggesting a young seismogenic structure.Spatial-temporal changes of the postseismic deformation are mapped from early 6-day and 24-day InSAR observations,and are well explained by time-dependent afterslip models.Analysis of Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)velocity profiles and strain rates suggests that the eastward extrusion of plateau is diffusely distributed across the east Bayan Har block,but exhibits significant lateral heterogeneities,as evidenced by magnetotelluric observations.The block-wide distributed deformation of the east Bayan Har block along with the significant co-and post-seismic stress loadings from the Madoi earthquake imply high seismic risks along regional faults,especially the Tuosuo Lake and Maqên-Maqu segments of the Kunlun fault that are known as seismic gaps.

Characteristics of Late-Quaternary Activity and Seismic Risk of the Northeastern Section of the Longmenshan Fault Zone

Following the 2008 Wenchuan M8 earthquake,the seismic risk of the northeastern section of the Longmenshan fault zone and the adjacent Hanzhong basin has become an issue that receives much concern.It is facing,however,the problem of a lack of sufficient data because of little previous work in these regions.The northeastern section of the Longmenshan fault zone includes three major faults：the Qingchuan fault,Chaba-Lin＇ansi fault,and Liangshan south margin fault,with the Hanzhong basin at the northern end.This paper presents investigations of the geometry,motion nature,and activity ages of these three faults,and reveals that they are strike slip with normal faulting,with latest activity in the Late Pleistocene.It implies that this section of the Longmenshan fault zone has been in an extensional setting,probably associated with the influence of the Hanzhong basin.Through analysis of the tectonic relationship between the Longmenshan fault zone and the Hanzhong basin,this work verifies that the Qingchuan fault played an important role in the evolution of the Hanzhong basin,and further studies the evolution model of this basin.Finally,with consideration of the tectonic setting of the Longmenshan fault zone and the Hanzhong basin as well as seismicity of surrounding areas,this work suggests that this region has no tectonic conditions for great earthquakes and only potential strong events in the future.

Performance-based seismic financial risk assessment of reinforced concrete frame structures

Engineering facilities subjected to natural hazards(such as winds and earthquakes) will result in risk when any designed system(i.e.capacity) will not be able to meet the performance required(i.e.demand).Risk might be expressed either as a likelihood of damage or potential financial loss.Engineers tend to make use of the former(i.e.damage).Nevertheless,other non-technical stakeholders cannot get useful information from damage.However,if financial risk is expressed on the basis of probable monetary loss,it will be easily understood by all.Therefore,it is necessary to develop methodologies which communicate the system capacity and demand to financial risk,Incremental dynamic analysis(IDA) was applied in a performance-based earthquake engineering context to do hazard analysis,structural analysis,damage analysis and loss analysis of a reinforced concrete(RC) frame structure.And the financial implications of risk were expressed by expected annual loss(EAL).The quantitative risk analysis proposed is applicable to any engineering facilities and any natural hazards.It is shown that the results from the IDA can be used to assess the overall financial risk exposure to earthquake hazard for a given constructed facility.The computational IDA-EAL method will enable engineers to take into account the long-term financial implications in addition to the construction cost.Consequently,it will help stakeholders make decisions.

Seismic risk evaluation for a planning mountain tunnel using improved analytical hierarchy process based on extension theory

Seismic risk evaluation(SRE) in early stages(e.g., project planning and preliminary design)for a mountain tunnel located in seismic areas has the same importance as that in final stages(e.g.,performance-based design, structural analysis, and optimization). SRE for planning mountain tunnels bridges the gap between the planning on the macro level and the design/analysis on the micro level regarding the risk management of infrastructural systems. A transition from subjective or qualitative description to objective or quantitative quantification of seismic risk is aimed to improve the seismic behavior of the mountain tunnel and thus reduce the associated seismic risk. A new method of systematic SRE for the planning mountain tunnel was presented herein. The method employs extension theory(ET)and an ET-based improved analytical hierarchy process. Additionally, a new risk-classification criterion is proposed to classify and quantify the seismic risk for a planning mountain tunnel. This SRE method is applied to a mountain tunnel in southwest China, using the extension model based on matter element theory and dependent function operation.The reasonability and flexibility of the SRE method for application to the mountain tunnel are illustrated.According to different seismic risk levels and classification criteria, methods and measures for improving the seismic design are proposed, which can reduce the seismic risk and provide a frame of reference for elaborate seismic design.

Main active faults and seismic activity along the Yangtze River Economic Belt:Based on remote sensing geological survey

The Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)spans three terrain steps in China and features diverse topography that is characterized by significant differences in geological structure and presentday crustal deformation.Active faults and seismic activity are important geological factors for the planning and development of the YREB.In this paper,the spatial distribution and activity of 165 active faults that exist along the YREB have been compiled from previous findings,using both remote-sensing data and geological survey results.The crustal stability of seven particularly noteworthy typical active fault zones and their potential effects on the crustal stability of the urban agglomerations are analyzed.The main active fault zones in the western YREB,together with the neighboring regional active faults,make up an arc fault block region comprising primarily of Sichuan-Yunnan and a“Sichuan-Yunnan arc rotational-shear active tectonic system”strong deformation region that features rotation,shear and extensional deformation.The active faults in the central-eastern YREB,with seven NE-NNE and seven NW-NWW active faults(the“7-longitudinal,7-horizontal”pattern),macroscopically make up a“chessboard tectonic system”medium-weak deformation region in the geomechanical tectonic system.They are also the main geological constraints for the crustal stability of the YREB.

Seismic risk analysis of coastal area of Pakistan

Estimation of seismic hazard for the fast developing coastal area of Pakistan is carried out using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. On the basis of seismotectonics and geology, eleven faults are recognized in five seismic provinces as potential hazard sources. Maximum magnitude potential for each of these sources is calculated. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) values at the seven coastal cities due to the maximum credible earthquake on the relevant source are also obtained. Cities of Gwadar and Ormara with acceleration values of 0.21g and 0.25g respectively fall in the high seismic risk area. Cities of Turbat and Karachi lie in low seismic risk area with acceleration values of less than 0.1g. The Probabilistic PGA maps with contour interval of 0.05g for 50 and 100 years return period with 90% probability of non-exceedance are also compiled.

Seismic fragility assessment of low-rise stone masonry buildings

Many historic buildings in old urban centers in Eastern Canada are made of stone masonry reputed to be highly vulnerable to seismic loads.Seismic risk assessment of stone masonry buildings is therefore the first step in the risk mitigation process to provide adequate planning for retrofit and preservation of historical urban centers.This paper focuses on development of analytical displacement-based fragility curves reflecting the characteristics of existing stone masonry buildings in Eastern Canada.The old historic center of Quebec City has been selected as a typical study area.The standard fragility analysis combines the inelastic spectral displacement,a structure-dependent earthquake intensity measure,and the building damage state correlated to the induced building displacement.The proposed procedure consists of a three-step development process：（1） mechanics-based capacity model,（2） displacement-based damage model and（3） seismic demand model.The damage estimation for a uniform hazard scenario of 2% in 50 years probability of exceedance indicates that slight to moderate damage is the most probable damage experienced by these stone masonry buildings.Comparison is also made with fragility curves implicit in the seismic risk assessment tools Hazus and ELER.Hazus shows the highest probability of the occurrence of no to slight damage,whereas the highest probability of extensive and complete damage is predicted with ELER.This comparison shows the importance of the development of fragility curves specific to the generic construction characteristics in the study area and emphasizes the need for critical use of regional risk assessment tools and generated results.

The stress field variation caused by faulting and the prediction for seismic risk

The stress field caused by faulting has an effect on the stability of the neighboring faults, and the study on the fault interaction has a close relation with the prediction of seismic risk. Stress field caused by the rectangle fault in the semi-infinite elastic medium is calculated on the basis of the elastic dislocation theory. The result shows that most of the successive large earthquakes, in the southwestern part of China and North China, occurred in the increasing area of shear stress S(xy) and the decreasing area of normal stress S(yy) The increasing of earthquake occurrence probability has a function relation with the increasing of stress. Earthquake triggering is resulted from the increasing of shear stress and the decreasing of normal stress. An activation coefficient A, of the earthquake is defined to express the change of seismic activity. The concrete risk region can be obtained through space scanning of At value. Finally, the fault interaction in a large scope is discussed in this paper.

Analyses of Crustal Deformation, Strain Field and Risk of Moderate and Strong Earthquakes in the Shanxi Seismic Belt

Using the four phases (1996～1999) of re-surveying data from the GPS network along the Shanxi fault zone, the recent state of horizontal movement of the fault zone and its relation with the Datong-Yanggao M5.6 earthquake (November 1, 1999), which took place on the north end of the monitored area, are analyzed. In the focal region, three areas with relatively higher strain (1×10 -6) appeared in Xinzhou and to the northeast of Jiexiu. The Shanxi fault zone is mainly controlled by the WNW-ESE-trending compressive stress field and the NNE-SSW-trending tensile stress field, and it does not have strike-slip movement. When examined for long-term tendency, attention should be paid to the junctures between the three moving elements.

Analysis of Seismic Risk at an Engineering Site from Site Effect Seismic Intensity Data Using the Seismotectonic Method——Taking Six Reservoir Dam Sites in Western Anhui as an Example

The seismotectonic method is used to study the seismogenic structures and the maximum potential earthquake around an engineering site in order to determine the seismic risk at the site. Analysis of seismic risk from site effect seismic intensity data, in combination with regional seismo_geological data, using the seismotectonic method can provide a more reliable result. In this paper, taking the area of six reservoir dam sites in western Anhui as an example, we analyze the seismic risk from site effect seismic intensity data in combination with the seismotectonic conditions and find that P (I≥i)=10% over 50 years. The result shows that the seismogenic structure and the maximum potential earthquake have a controlling effect on seismic risk from future earthquakes in the area around the site.

Seismic stress perturbation and triggering patterns induced by the 2016 Central Italy earthquake sequences

Numerous shallow earthquakes, including 24 th August Amatrice, 26 th October Visso, and 30 th October Norcia earthquakes, ruptured the segments of Mount Vettore-Gorzano fault system in the central Apennines(Italy) in 2016. In order to investigate the stress perturbation and triggering patterns among the earthquake sequences, we introduce a more realistic nonplanar coseismic fault geometry model, which improve the rupture model by assimilating relocated aftershocks and the GPS observations. We adopt the seismic slip inversion program of the steepest descent method(SDM) to create the detailed coseismic rupture models and optimize Coulomb Failure Stress model by varying the coefficient of friction and received fault parameters. The results indicate that the nonplanar fault geometry model is more reflective of the deep slip of the coseismic rupture than planar model. As evidenced by the coseismic Coulomb stress changes caused by the three mainshocks at different depth slices, the stress loading mainly distributes on the active fault zones and the stress changes can well explain the spatial distribution of aftershocks. The first large Amatrice mainshock accelerates the occurrence of the Mw 5.9 Visso and Mw 6.6 Norcia earthquakes, with the positive stress changes at the hypocenter exceeding the stress triggering threshold(0.010×10^(6) Pa) and up to 0.015×10^(6) and 0.257×10^(6) Pa, respectively. Furthermore, the Mw 5.9 Visso earthquake as well encourages the occurrence of the Mw 6.6 Norcia event with the increased stress changes of 0.052×10^(6) Pa on the hypocenter. It is concluded that the stress transfer and accumulation play crucial roles on the linkage triggering mechanism among the mainshock-mainshock and mainshockaftershocks. Noteworthily, the cumulative stress changes on the southwest segment of the Norcia Fault(NF), the southeast parts of the Montereale Fault System(MFS) and Mount Gorzano Fault(MGF) of the main regions are up to(1.5~3.5) ×10^(6) Pa. The cumulative stress changes have not been released sufficiently by aftershocks, which may increase the seismic hazard in those regions.

Binomial model on seismic risk analysis

In this paper, from the differences to evaluate and manage the seismic uncertainty we analyzed the imperfection of determinant method and the Poisson model of probabilistic method in seismic risk analysis. Through studying and summarizing the relation of earthquake occurrence time, intensity and place, we deemed that the time uncertainty of earthquake occurrence interacts with that of space. We expressed the interaction with the concept of upbound earthquake occurrence number and deduced the Binomial model. The Binomial model can be applied in reflecting uncertainty of time and space. Comparing the determinant method and the Poisson model of probabilistic method with the Binomial model, we have got the idea that determinant and the Poisson model are two limits of the Binomial model. When the temporal-spatial uncertainty is infinity or infinitesimal, the binomial model tends to a determinant method and a Poisson model respectively. We also gave an approach to show the implied probability of intensity in the Earthquake intensity Zoning Map in China made in 1977. We also estimated the maximums of the implied probability of five high intensity areas in the Northern China.

Mapping Seismic Vulnerability and Risk of Cities： The MASSIVE Project

MASSIVE （mapping seismic vulnerability and risk of cities） is a GIS-based earthquake preparedness system that was developed under the European Union Civil Protection Mechanism project （GA No. 070401/2009/540429/SUB/A4）, in order to provide civil protection authorities with accurate, and easily transferable tools for generating up-to-date maps of seismic hazard, seismic vulnerability and seismic risk of buildings, at the scale of the single building block. In addition, MASSIVE developed and ran state-of-the-art models to assess the risk for population evacuation in dense urban agglomerations given an earthquake event. The MASSIVE methodology was designed, implemented and validated considering two European pilot sites, heavily struck by recent earthquakes, which are the western part of the Larger Metropolitan Area of Athens （GR）, and the city of L＇ Aquila in the Abruzzo Region （IT）. The validation of the results using past earthquake records shows that the performance of MASSIVE is prosperous, achieving a correlation between the modeled and the on-site measured PGAs （peak ground accelerations） higher than 0.75, while the correlation between the on-site reported building damages and the ones predicted by the MASSIVE system has been of the order of 0.80.

The Policies of Seismic Risk Management： Case of the Protected Areas of Dellys and Tenes Cities, Algeria

The greater part of urban heritage, especially of the medium and small Algerian cities, is subject to a major seismic risk. The probability of a happening earthquake is strong, and the territories vulnerability is great. Legislative procedures are implemented to support urban heritage and managing natural disasters. In fact, the PPSMVSS （permanent plan of safeguard and enhancement of saved sectors） as an instrument of protection, preservation and enhancement of this heritage, in its content, does not guide decision makers on how to manage the vulnerability of preserved areas from the earthquake. After the disaster of the earthquake that hit the Algerian Centre （wilaya of Boumerdes） in 2003. A legislative framework was created while other texts have been adapted. Emergency measures operations are launched to preserve the under threat monuments and protected areas. Saved sectors of Dellys, in the wilaya of Boumerdes and T6n^s in the wilaya of Chlef, are all the time subjected to seismic risk. This article presents a comparative study of two PPSMVSS, Dellys and T6n6s, and the management of the vulnerability of their two safeguarded areas. As a result of this study, some indicators were identified to allow the development of plans for the protection and management natural risks of these protected areas.