Evolution of Coulomb failure stress in Sulaiman Lobe,Pakistan,and its implications for seismic hazard assessment

In this research work,we present the evolution of Coulomb failure stress(CFS)in the Sulaiman Lobe and its implications for seismic hazard assessment.The Chaman transform fault,~1,000 km long,is the major active fault that marks the western boundary between Pakistan and Afghanistan on the Indian Plate.To date,few studies have been conducted to unveil the interactions among earthquakes and the implications of these interactions for seismic hazard assessment in the region.We thoroughly investigated the published and online catalog to construct a sequence of major earthquakes that occurred in this region during the past.The final earthquake sequence was composed of 15 earthquakes of M_(w)≥6.0,beginning with the 1888 earthquake.We used the stress-triggering theory to numerically simulate the evolution of CFS caused by these earthquakes.The numerical results revealed that 8 out of 15earthquakes were triggered by the preceding earthquakes.The earthquakes in 1908,1910,1935,1966,and 1997 were rather independent earthquakes in this sequence.Although the epicenters of the 1975a and 1975b earthquakes were in the stress shadow zone,the partial rupture segments of both these earthquakes were in high-CFS regions.The CFS induced by the 1935 earthquake was notable,as it later triggered the 2008 doublet.Moreover,our results revealed that the northern segment of the Chaman Fault,the southern segment of the Ghazaband Fault,and the northwestern segment of the Urghargai Fault demonstrated a high change in CFS that could trigger seismicity in these regions.The necessary arrangements must therefore be made to mitigate any possible seismic hazards in the region.

Seismic hazard assessment of the Three Gorges Project

Seismic monitoring data for the past 50 years in the Three Gorges Reservoir area show that the reservoir head area is a typical weak seismic region with low seismieity before impoundment and that the epicenters were concentrated in the east and west sides of the Zigui Basin, most of which were natural tectonic earth- quakes. After impoundment, the seismic activity shifted to the segment between Badong and Zigui along the Yangtze River, mainly within 5 km of the reservoir bank. The seismogenesis was categorized into four types： Karst collapse earthquakes, earthquakes caused by Karst gas explosion, mining tunnel collapse earthquakes, and rock （terrane） slip earthquakes, all of which are related to the lithology, structure, and tectonics of near- surface geological bodies of the area. Compared with the seismicity before impoundment, the seismic frequency increase was remarkable, with most of the magnitudes below Ms2.0. Therefore, the intensity of the earth- quakes remained at a low level. On November 22, 2008, a magnitude 4.1 earthquake, the largest earthquake recorded since impoundment, occurred in Quyuan Town, Zigui County. The intensity and PGA of reservoir-in- duced earthquakes are higher than those of tectonic earthquakes with equal magnitude, but the peak intensity of reservoir-induced earthquakes is not likely to go beyond that of the estimated range from earlier studies.

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Kazakhstan and Almaty city in peak ground accelerations

As for many post-soviet countries, Kazakhstan’s building code for seismic design was based on a deterministic approach. Recently, Kazakhstan seismologists are engaged to adapt the PSHA(probabilistic hazard assessment) procedure to the large amount of available geological, geophysical and tectonic Kazakh data and to meet standard requirements for the Eurocode 8. The new procedure has been used within National projects to develop the Probabilistic GSZ(General Seismic Zoning) maps of the Kazakhstan territory and the SMZ(Probabilistic Seismic Microzoning) maps of Almaty city. They agree with the seismic design principles of Eurocode 8 and are expressed in terms of not only seismic intensity,but also engineering parameters(peak ground acceleration PGA). The whole packet of maps has been developed by the Institute of Seismology, together with other Kazakhstan Institutions. Our group was responsible for making analysis in PGA. The GSZ maps and hazard assessment maps for SMZ in terms of PGA for return periods 475 and 2475 years are considered in the article.

Active Fault Exploration and Seismic Hazard Assessment in Fuzhou City

It has been proven by a number of earthquake case studies that an active fault-induced earthquake beneath a city can be devastating. It is an urgent issue for seismic hazard reduction to explore the distribution of active faults beneath the urban area and identify the seismic source and the risks underneath. As a pilot project of active fault exploration in China, the project, entitled “Active fault exploration and seismic hazard assessment in Fuzhou City”, started in early 2001 and passed the check before acceptance of China Earthquake Administration in August 2004. The project was aimed to solve a series of scientific issues such as fault location, dating, movement nature, deep settings, seismic risk and hazard, preparedness of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction, and etc. by means of exploration and assessment of active faults by stages, i.e., the preliminary survey and identification of active faults in target area, the exploration of deep seismotectonic settings, the risk evaluation of active seismogenic faults, the construction of geographic information system of active faults, and so on. A lot of exploration methods were employed in the project such as the detection of absorbed mercury, free mercury and radon in soil, the geological radar, multi-channel DC electrical method, tsansient electromagnetic method, shallow seismic refraction and reflection, effect contrast of explored sources, and various sounding experiments, to establish the buried Quaternary standard section of the Fuzhou basin. By summing up, the above explorations and experiments have achieved the following results and conclusions ：

Seismic Hazard Assessment of District Mansehra,Khyber Pakhtoonkhawa,Pakistan

The site of Mansehra is located seismically in an active regime, known as the Crystalline Nappe Zone and Hazara-Kashmir Syntaxis in NW Himalayas, Pakistan. Seismic Hazard Assessment （SHA） for the site has been carried out by considering the earthquake source zones, selection of appropriate attenuation equations, near fault effects and maximum potential magnitude estimation. The Mansehra Thrust, Oghi Fault, Banna Thrust, Balakot Shear Zone, Main Boundary Thrust, Panjal Thrust, Jhelum Fault and Muzaffarabad Fault and, further to the south, the Sanghargali, Nathiagali, and Thandiani Thrusts are the most critical tectonic features within the 50 km radius of Mansehra. Using the available instrumental seismological data from 1904 to 2007, SHA has been carried out. Other reactivated critical tectonic features in the area have been investigated. Among them the Balakot-Bagh fault, with the fault length of 120 km from Balakot to Poonch, has been considered as the most critical tectonic feature on the basis of geological/structural/seismological data. The potential earthquake of maximum magnitude 7.8 has been assigned to the Balakot-Bagh fault using four regression relations. The peak ground acceleration value of 0.25 g （10% probability of exceedance for 50 years） and 0.5 g has been calculated with the help of the attenuation equation using probabilistic and deterministic approaches.

Seismic Hazard Assessment in the Boundary Region of Indo-China:First Phase of Implementation of the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) in Continental Asia

The primary goal of the demonstration project endorsed by the Scientific and Technical Committee for IDNDR in 1992 is to ensure that national agencies are able to assess seismic hazard in a regionally coordinated fashion by using advanced methods.China,as a Regional Center of Central Southern Asia,has contacted with countries of the region to realistically practice seismic hazard assessments of Continental Asia.A test area located in the collision boundary between the Indian and Eurasian plates was chosen to examine the seismic hazard assessment approach in the regional coordinates.The seismotectonics and three versions of seismic sources of the test area are described in this paper and under the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program(GSHAP),guidelines an earthquake catalogue of the test area was assembled.Because of the incompleteness of earthquake data in different countries,we adopt different time windows for different magnitude intervals in order to obtain the seismicity parameters of sources.By

Comprehensive Studies of Seismic Forecast and Seismic Hazard Assessment in Armenia, Current State and Prospects

The study of geophysical processes in different layers of the Earth,seismic hazard assessment,earthquake prediction,etc.are topical fundamental and applied problems.The development of a modern adequate methodology for assessing seismic hazards,operational forecasting of earthquakes.

On unified analysis of uncertainty in seismic hazard assessment

In this paper, firstly the current analysis methods of uncertainties in seismic hazard assessment (SHA) are systematically reviewed, and the existing problems are pointed out. At the same time, it is proposed that the uncertainties can be divided into three kinds, namely, randomness, fuzziness and incompleteness of knowledge, and they can be treated in a unified way. Then, based on marked point process theory, a general equation for SHA is obtained, and a general equation for uncertainty analysis is also given on the basis of total probability theorem. Finally, the relationship between the proposed analysis method with those currently used both at home and abroad is discussed. The analysis shows that they are just the special case of the proposed method.

Application and discussion of statistical seismology in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment studies

Earthquakes are one of the natural disasters that pose a major threat to human lives and property. Earthquake prediction propels the construction and development of modern seismology;however, current deterministic earthquake prediction is limited by numerous difficulties. Identifying the temporal and spatial statistical characteristics of earthquake occurrences and constructing earthquake risk statistical prediction models have become significant;particularly for evaluating earthquake risks and addressing seismic planning requirements such as the design of cities and lifeline projects based on the obtained insight. Since the 21 st century, the occurrence of a series of strong earthquakes represented by the Wenchuan M8 earthquake in 2008 in certain low-risk prediction areas has caused seismologists to reflect on traditional seismic hazard assessment globally. This article briefly reviews the development of statistical seismology, emphatically analyzes the research results and existing problems of statistical seismology in seismic hazard assessment, and discusses the direction of its development. The analysis shows that the seismic hazard assessment based on modern earthquake catalogues in most regions should be effective. Particularly, the application of seismic hazard assessment based on ETAS(epidemic type aftershock sequence)should be the easiest and most effective method for the compilation of seismic hazard maps in large urban agglomeration areas and low seismic hazard areas with thick sedimentary zones.

Detailed seismic zoning of the East Kazakhstan region in the Republic of Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan is currently drafting new construction regulations that comply with the major provisions of the Eurocodes.Such regulations are created on the basis of seismic zoning maps of various degrees of detail,developed by our Institute of Seismology using a new methodological approach for Kazakhstan.The article is about creating the first normative map of the Detailed Seismic Zoning on a probabilistic foundation for the Republic of Kazakhstan’s East Kazakhstan region.We carried out the probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard using a methodology consistent with the main provisions of Eurocode 8and updated compared with that used in developing maps of Kazakhstan’s General Seismic Zoning and seismic microzoning of Almaty.The most thorough and current data accessible for the area under consideration were combined with contemporary analytical techniques.Updates have been done to not only the databases being used but also the way seismic sources were shown,including active faults now.On a scale of 1:1000000,precise seismic zoning maps of the East Kazakhstan region were created for two probabilities of exceedance:10%and 2%in 50 years in terms of peak ground accelerations and macroseismic intensities.The obtained seismic hazard distribution is generally consistent with the General Seismic Zoning of Kazakhstan’s previous findings.However,because active faults were included and a thoroughly revised catalog was used,there are more pronounced zones of increased danger along the fault in the western part of the region.In the west of the territory,acceleration values also increased due to a more accurate consideration of seismotectonic conditions.Zoning maps are the basis for developing new state building regulations of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

State of art of seismic design and seismic hazard analysis for oil and gas pipeline system

The purpose of this paper is to adopt the uniform confidence method in both water pipeline design and oil-gas pipeline design.Based on the importance of pipeline and consequence of its failure,oil and gas pipeline can be classified into three pipe classes,with exceeding probabilities over 50 years of 2%,5% and 10%,respectively.Performance-based design requires more information about ground motion,which should be obtained by evaluating seismic safety for pipeline engineering site.Different from a city＇s water pipeline network,the long-distance oil and gas pipeline system is a spatially linearly distributed system.For the uniform confidence of seismic safety,a long-distance oil and pipeline formed with pump stations and different-class pipe segments should be considered as a whole system when analyzing seismic risk.Considering the uncertainty of earthquake magnitude,the design-basis fault displacements corresponding to the different pipeline classes are proposed to improve deterministic seismic hazard analysis（DSHA）.A new empirical relationship between the maximum fault displacement and the surface-wave magnitude is obtained with the supplemented earthquake data in East Asia.The estimation of fault displacement for a refined oil pipeline in Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake is introduced as an example in this paper.

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Nepal

The seismic ground motion hazard for Nepal has been estimated using a probabilistic approach. A catalogue of earthquakes has been compiled for Nepal and the surrounding region （latitude 26% N and 31.7% N and longitude 79° E and 90° E） from 1255 to 2011. The distribution of catalogued earthquakes, together with available geological and tectonic information were used to delineate twenty-three seismic source seismic source information and probabilistic earthquake hazard prediction relationship, peak ground accelerations （PGAs） have zones in Nepal and the surrounding region. By using the parameters in conjunction with a selected ground motion been calculated at bedrock level with 63%, 10%, and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The estimated PGA values are in the range of 0.07-0.16 g, 0.21 0.62 g, and 0.38-1.1 g for 63%, 10%, and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, respectively. The resulting ground motion maps show different characteristics of PGA distribution, i.e., high hazard in the far-western and eastern sections, and low hazard in southern Nepal. The quantified PGA values at bedrock level provide information for microzonation studies in different parts of the country.

Cursory seismic drift assessment for buildings in moderate seismicity regions

This paper outlines a methodology to assess the seismic drift of reinforced concrete buildings with limited structural and geotechnical information. Based on the latest and the most advanced research on predicting potential near-field and far field earthquakes affecting Hong Kong, the engineering response spectra for both rock and soil sites are derived. A new step-by-step procedure for displacement-based seismic hazard assessment of building structures is proposed to determine the maximum inter-storey drift demand for reinforced concrete buildings. The primary information required for this assessment is only the depth of the soft soil above bedrock and the height of the building. This procedure is further extended to assess the maximum chord rotation angle demand for the coupling beam of coupled shear wall or frame wall structures, which may be very critical when subjected to earthquake forces. An example is provided to illustrate calibration of the assessment procedure by using actual engineering structural models.

Underestimated seismic hazard in the south of the Issyk-Kul Lake region (northern Tian Shan)

The Tian Shan Mountains were formed in the result of the India-Eurasia collision, which leads to cre- ation of contrast high-mountain relief and world known seismic activity. The seismic catastrophes, recorded instrumentally, have occurred to the north of the Issyk-Kul Lake region. There are also known significant earthquakes with magnitude being about 7 in western and eastern parts of the mentioned lake region. Only in the south of the Issyk-Kul depression the strong earthquakes recorded by the seismic network were not known. Our recent study in the south of the lssyk-Kul Lake region has revealed numerous active tectonic structures related to South Issyk-I（ul Fault： faults and folds, responsible for strong earthquakes＇ occurrence. These were historical and paleoseismic defornlations which led to changes in relief： fault scarps and significant rockslides. We have also found spectacular deformations in archeological monuments. All these deformations testify the location of epicentral areas of two strong historic （about llth and 16th （？） centuries AD） and paleoearthquakes （Holocene and Late Pleistocene）. Magnitude of ancient seismic events, according to parameters of the revealed fault scarps, were Ms 〉 7 and seismic intensity I 〉 IX. All revealed seismic deformations are located to adyrs （piedmonts） of the Terskey Ala-Too range bordered of the lssyk-Kul Lake depression in the south. Their formation is described by the model of a fault which rupture plane becomes shallower southward. This model is complicated by the presence of reverse thrusts. Here, we should admit the existence of a single zone of South lssyk-Kul Fault which is a long-lived feature which separates the structures with the different regime of movements during the Neotectonic time. All obtained data led us to a conclusion of significant underestimation of the seismic hazard in southern lssyk-Kul Lake region.

Myths about Earthquakes:Quo vadis?

We are living in a world of numbers and calculations with enormous amount of pretty fast user-friendly software ready for an automatic output that may lead to a discovery or,alternatively,mislead to a deceptive conclusion,erroneous claims and predictions.As a matter of fact,nowadays,Science can disclose Natural Hazards,assess Risks,and deliver the state-of-the-art Knowledge of looming disaster in advance catastrophes along with useful Recommendations on the level of risks for decision making regarding engineering design,insurance,and emergency management.

Seismic design and analysis of nuclear power plant structures

The seismic design and analysis of nuclear power plant (NPP) begin with the seismic hazard assessment and design ground motion development for the site. The following steps are needed for the seismic hazard assessment and design ground motion development:a. the development of regional seismo-tectonic model with seismic source areas within 500 km radius centered to the site;b. the development of strong motion prediction equations; c. logic three development for taking into account uncertainties and seismic hazard quantification;d. the development of uniform hazard response spectra for ground motion at the site;e. simulation of acceleration time histories compatible with uniform hazard response spectra. The following phase two in seismic design of NPP structures is the analysis of structural response for the design ground motion. This second phase of the process consists of the following steps:a. development of structural models of the plant buildings;b. development of the soil model underneath the plant buildings for soilstructure interaction response analysis;c. determination of instructure response spectra for the plant buildings for the equipment response analysis. In the third phase of the seismic design and analysis the equipment is analyzed on the basis of in-structure response spectra. For this purpose the structural models of the mechanical components and piping in the plant are set up. In large 3D-structural models used today the heaviest equipment of the primary coolant circuit is included in the structural model of the reactor building. In the fourth phase the electrical equipment and automation and control equipment are seismically qualified with the aid of the in-structure spectra developed in the phase two using large three-axial shaking tables. For this purpose the smoothed envelope spectra for calculated in-structure spectra are constructed and acceleration time is fitted to these smoothed envelope spectra.

Geofluids Hosted in the Deep Crust: From Systematics to Parametrization of their Significance

Earthquake is a sudden release of energy due to fault motions.The severity of the damages can be minimized by development of a culture of prevention which includes the Seismic Hazard Assessment,microzonation studies and appropriate building codes.

Shallow destructive earthquakes

Depths of earthquake occurrence and large slip distribution are critical for seismic hazard assessment.Numerous examples show that earthquakes with similar magnitudes,however,can result in significantly different ground shaking and damage.One of the critical factors is that whether the large slip was generated near the ground surface.In this article,we reviewed two aspects that are important on this regard,shallow slip deficit and nucleation depth.Understanding how shallow future earthquakes may nucleate in particular regions,such as shale gas fields,is critical for hazard assessment.Whether or not a strong earthquake may slip significantly at shallow depths(less than 3 km)plays crucial rules in seismic hazard preparation and should be further investigated by integrating high-resolution fault zone observations,dynamic rupture simulation,and fault zone properties.Moreover,precisely resolving shallow depth and slip distribution of earthquakes demands InSAR and/or other image data that can better capture the near-fault deformation to constrain the source parameters of earthquakes.

Identification of hidden faults using determining velocity structure profile by spatial autocorrelation method in the west of Mashhad plain(Northeast of Iran)

Characterizing the subsurface structure is an important parameter for the improvement of seismic hazard assessment.Due to the tectonic complexity of the earth,some deep fractures do not reach the earth's surface and are not detectable with visual analysis.Therefore,the lack of knowledge of faults and fractures can result in disasters,especially in urban planning.Many geophysical methods can be used to estimate subsurface structure characterization.However,a more reliable method is required to assess seismic hazards and reduce potential damage in metropolitan areas without destroying buildings and structures.This paper aims to identify hidden faults and structures using shear wave velocity sections.To do this,surface wave dispersion curve was extracted from the vertical component of microtremor array recording using the spatial autocorrelation(SPAC)method in two profiles and 13 array stations(perpendicular to the altitudes)to obtain shear wave velocity structure(Vs)in the west of Mashhad,northeast of Iran.The results of shear wave velocity profiles(Vs)indicate sudden changes in the thickness of sediments.This can be related to the displacement of a normal fault in this area causing the bottom rock to fall and an increase in the alluvial thickness in the central part of the plain.The velocity in the floor rock is 2000 meters per second in this area.According to the surface outcrops and water wells data,its material is slate and Phyllite metamorphic rocks that are exposed in the adjacent heights.Besides,the seismic profile results were well consistent with electrical resistance data and well logs indicating that the tool array method is flexible,non-invasive,relatively fast,and effective for urban areas with satisfactory accuracy.

Uncertainties in estimation of extrapolated annual occurence rate of earthquakes using logical tree

he logical tree methods are used for evaluate quantitatively relationship between frequency and magnitude, and deduce uncertainties of annual occurrence rate of earthquakes in the periods of lower magnitude earthquake. The uncertainties include deviations from the self-similarity of frequency-magnitude relations, different fitting methods, different methods obtained the annual occurrence rate, magnitude step used in fitting, start magnitude, error of magnitude and so on. Taking Xianshuihe River source zone as an example, we analyze uncertainties of occurrence rate of earthquakes M4, which is needed in risk evaluation extrapolating from frequency-magnitude relations of stronger earthquakes. The annual occurrence rate of M4 is usually required for seismic hazard assessment.The sensitivity analysis and examinations indicate that, in the same frequencymagnitude relations fitting method, the most sensitive factor is annual occurrence rate, the second is magnitude step and the following is start magnitude. Effect of magnitude error is rather small.Procedure of estimating the uncertainties is as follows:①Establishing a logical tree described uncertainties in frequencymagnitude relations by available data and knowledge about studied region.② Calculating frequencymagnitude relations for each end branches. ③ Examining sensitivities of each uncertainty factors, amending structure of logical tree and adjusting original weights. ④ Recalculating frequencymagnitude relations of end branches and complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF) in each magnitude intervals.⑤ Obtaining an annual occurrence rate of M4 earthquakes under given fractiles.Taking fractiles as 20% and 80%, annual occurrence rate of M 4 events in Xianshuihe seismic zone is 0.643 0. The annual occurrence rate is 0.631 8 under fractiles of 50%, which is very close to that under fractiles 20% and 80%.