The relationship between the strain cumulative rate (i.e., the crustal strain rate, or CSR in short) and seismic activity is analyzed to develop a new method to determine risky regions for strong shocks within recent ...The relationship between the strain cumulative rate (i.e., the crustal strain rate, or CSR in short) and seismic activity is analyzed to develop a new method to determine risky regions for strong shocks within recent years by the recorded crustal strain field. Seismic activity, especially the recurrence period, is different in different areas. Ding Guoyu (1984) pointed out that, for different seismic regions, the difference in the recurrence period of strong earthquakes is mainly controlled by their difference in the rate of the tectonic movement, which is controlled by the seismogenic environment and the tectonic conditions. The method of determining the risky regions for strong shocks from the gradient of vertical strain rates observed in a geodetic survey is preliminarily tested with the earthquakes in recent years; the results show that this method is effective and useful for earthquake prediction. The relationship between CSR and seismicity in a specific region is studied with strain theories,展开更多
1研究背景许多著名学者一致认为自然正交函数方法是预测、评估和检验大规模数据中短期和长期变化的最先进工具(Dawson,2016;Chao,2019;Neha et al,2021)。然而自然正交函数方法最先应用在大气、气候和气象预测上(马开玉等,1993),近年来...1研究背景许多著名学者一致认为自然正交函数方法是预测、评估和检验大规模数据中短期和长期变化的最先进工具(Dawson,2016;Chao,2019;Neha et al,2021)。然而自然正交函数方法最先应用在大气、气候和气象预测上(马开玉等,1993),近年来该方法逐渐应用在强震预测研究中。在中国,采用正交函数方法计算强震前的能量场(杨明芝,2004)、应变场(杨明芝,2017;罗国富,2023)和频次场(罗国富,2023),提取场的时间和空间异常信息,分析与强震的关系。在日本、印度以及欧美国家,采用经验正交函数方法计算强震前后的变形场(Chang,2011;Chao,2019;Neha et al,2021),分析强震的同震变形,给出三维变形的运动方向。展开更多
基金1998. This project was sponsored by the National Science Foundation (96-913-03-03-02), China.
文摘The relationship between the strain cumulative rate (i.e., the crustal strain rate, or CSR in short) and seismic activity is analyzed to develop a new method to determine risky regions for strong shocks within recent years by the recorded crustal strain field. Seismic activity, especially the recurrence period, is different in different areas. Ding Guoyu (1984) pointed out that, for different seismic regions, the difference in the recurrence period of strong earthquakes is mainly controlled by their difference in the rate of the tectonic movement, which is controlled by the seismogenic environment and the tectonic conditions. The method of determining the risky regions for strong shocks from the gradient of vertical strain rates observed in a geodetic survey is preliminarily tested with the earthquakes in recent years; the results show that this method is effective and useful for earthquake prediction. The relationship between CSR and seismicity in a specific region is studied with strain theories,
文摘1研究背景许多著名学者一致认为自然正交函数方法是预测、评估和检验大规模数据中短期和长期变化的最先进工具(Dawson,2016;Chao,2019;Neha et al,2021)。然而自然正交函数方法最先应用在大气、气候和气象预测上(马开玉等,1993),近年来该方法逐渐应用在强震预测研究中。在中国,采用正交函数方法计算强震前的能量场(杨明芝,2004)、应变场(杨明芝,2017;罗国富,2023)和频次场(罗国富,2023),提取场的时间和空间异常信息,分析与强震的关系。在日本、印度以及欧美国家,采用经验正交函数方法计算强震前后的变形场(Chang,2011;Chao,2019;Neha et al,2021),分析强震的同震变形,给出三维变形的运动方向。
