From“selective two-child policy”to universal two-child policy:Will the payment crisis of China’s pension system be solved?

With the rapid population aging,the payment crisis of China’s pension insurance fund is increasing yearly.The government adjusts fertility policy to alleviate population aging and improve the solvency of pension insurance fund.On January1,2016,China’s fertility policy was adjusted from“selective two-child policy”to universal two-child policy.This paper establishes actuarial models to analyze how fertility policy adjustment influences the pension insurance fund and concludes as follows:(1)if the“one-child policy”were still employed,the accumulated deficit of pension insurance fund would appear in the year of 2076;(2)if all couples that satisfy the rules of“selective two-child policy”bear the second child,the time of accumulated deficit of pension insurance fund would be postponed by about 9 years;(3)after implementing universal two-child policy,the time of accumulated deficit of pension insurance fund would delay under different situations of fertility intentions,if more than 54% of the qualified couples bear a second child,the accumulated deficit of pension insurance fund would not appear before 2090.The above conclusions have passed the sensitivity tests.Therefore,“two-child policy”can alleviate the payment pressure of pension insurance fund.If the government wants to solve the payment crisis of pension insurance fund,fertility intentions should be improved.

Security Defence Policy Selection Method Using the Incomplete Information Game Model

Nowadays, the network defence policy selection using game model of incomplete information ignores the type of the defender, which quantifies cost simply, resulting in unreasonable defence policies selection. Aiming at the problem, we use Bayesian game theory to model the active defence policy selection. We take the types of both the attacker and the defender into consideration. Besides, the traditional quantization method is enhanced. Then, we calculate the equilibrium of static Bayesian game. Based on the analysis of the equilibrium, we select the optimal defence policy through the prediction for attackers' actions. The paper calculates the defence effectiveness of defence policies and provides a defence policies selection algorithm. Ultimately, we present an example to verify the effectiveness of the method and model proposed in the paper.

Seizures Related to Two-child Policy:A Case Report

From 1979 to 2012,the Chinese government implemented the one-child policy to control population growth.In 2013,families in which either parent was the only one child were allowed to apply for a second child.In 2016,China’s universal two-child policy was finally imposed.As such,many children who had always been the center of their family’s universe due to the unique family structure stemming from the one-child policy era became elder siblings during their adolescence.We report a case of a 9-year-old girl who developed seizures after the birth of her younger sister.The combination of clinical observation,laboratory examinations,and video-electroencephalography was not enough to make a confident diagnosis of epilepsy initially.Given her patient history and follow-up investigation,we speculated the two-child policy was related to her seizures.To our knowledge,this is the first report of seizures strongly related to the two-child policy.

The Influence of the Two-child Policy on Urbanization in China

Family planning has been China's basic national policy since 1980, but it changed from a onechild policy to a two-child policy at the end of 2015 as which will further stimulate the rapid growth of China's population and have a profound impact on the population structure and land use in China. Based on the forecast of total population change in national and provincial dimensions after the two -child policy, the paper forecasted the spatial pattern of China's population and provincial differentiation over the next 15 years, and discussed the far-reaching impact on the future urban and rural land use and planning. Conclusions as follows: the two-child policy will achieve rapid population growth in the next 5 years, then there will be a stable growth phase;the peak of China's population increase will occur in 2030 with a total population of about 1.55 billion people, which will continue the regional differentiation of urbanization, and urbanization level in southeastern region will remain generally higher than that of the northwest. In addition, population growth brings new demands in urban and rural construction land, therefore, more intensive use of land will be the inevitable choice for the future development for China.

A Study of the Universal Two-child Policy’s Impact on China’s Future Population

The most essential step in adjusting and improving the childbearing policy, the universal two-child policy will produce far-reaching impacts on the future development of China’s population. With its implementation, the country’s total population will peak later, the underage population and its proportion will increase substantially, the working-age population will experience a slower decline, and the aging of China’s population will be eased. However, the drop in the proportion of working-age people over the last 15 years has expedited the reduction of the demographic dividend, the elderly population will remain unaffected over the next 60 years, the aging of the population will continue to deepen, and at the same time, the increased child dependency burden will expand the overall dependency ratio.

Why Retention Policy is Vital in the Process of Recruitment and Selection?

A moderate level of turnover is not a bad thing for company since it represents new blood for organization,also some kinds of turnover cannot be avoided such as functional turnover[Derek,2004 p169].The article going to analyze what factors influence employees' decision on leaving both from pull factors and push factors.An unsuccessful recruitment and selection might loss potential employees while a high retain rate has positive impact on recruitment and selection,in other words,it is necessary to analyze why and how to keep employees stay in company.

Concept, Interests and Systems: Logical Consciousness of the China Campus Football Policy Trip

Based on the “Healthy China 2030 Planning Outline”, the literature method and logical analysis method are used to review and analyze the implementation process of China’s school football policy from three dimensions: value, interest appeal and institutional background. The study believes that in order to break through the bottleneck of policy implementation and improve the effect of policy implementation, it is necessary to establish correct values and form broad recognition of policies;meet the reasonable interests of all parties and form a synergy for policy implementation;optimize the institutional environment for policy implementation and form effective incentives.

我国营商环境治理中的政策工具选择策略——基于51份政策文本的内容分析

建设良好的营商环境需要相应的政策工具。分析我国营商环境治理的政策工具选择,既要把握现实的政策,又要具有理论思维。本文基于政策工具选择理论,建立政策工具组合分析框架,运用内容分析法,对2014—2022年我国国家层面营商环境治理的51份政策文本进行编码分析。可以发现:我国营商环境治理中的政策工具选择表现为资源供给、需求整合及环境法制三类。资源供给类政策工具以政务服务提升作为主要手段,带动技术、资金等资源的投入。需求整合类政策工具以满足市场主体需求为主,将企业发展与市场塑造进行耦合。环境法制类政策工具强调强制性手段的合理运用,通过法规制度来规范营商环境的发展。未来,我国营商环境治理还需要不断推进政策工具创新,不断完善政策工具的具体类型,注重政策工具的科学运用。

消费者保护政策能否减少逆向选择

逆向选择问题是跨境电商“健康持续创新发展”的重要阻碍,而消费者保护政策作为一种重要的平台规制机制,为应对逆向选择问题提供了有益的解决途径。本文使用包含Wish上详细产品信息的数据集,以欺诈性履行订单政策为准实验,采用时间断点回归检验了消费者保护政策对产品市场进入和退出的影响。研究发现,消费者保护政策会显著减少企业的新产品数量,但会显著增加其中高质量产品的数量;同时,政策会促进在位产品的退出,主要体现为低质量产品的退出,从而有效缓解了平台上的逆向选择问题。差分-断点回归表明,核心机制在于消费者保护政策对于产品质量提出了较高的要求,进而提升了企业面临的合规风险。研究还发现,政策会显著提升在位产品的价格和销量。相关结论为跨境电商平台治理“柠檬市场”提供了重要参考。

区域贸易政策不确定性、策略选择与中国多产品企业出口产品种类——基于中国-东盟《框架协议》的准自然实验

多产品企业产品种类调整有助于实现企业内资源优化配置。文章匹配2001—2013年中国工业企业数据、海关进出口产品数据与WITS关税数据,以中国-东盟《框架协议》签署作为准自然实验,通过双重差分的方法探究区域贸易政策不确定性对中国多产品企业出口产品种类的影响。实证结果表明,《框架协议》签署带来的区域贸易政策不确定性下降促使中国多产品企业显著增加出口产品种类,与Bernard et al.(2011)基于美加自由贸易区的研究结果形成了鲜明对比,主要原因在于东盟市场与北美市场的规模、产品结构等方面存在显著差异。此外,区域贸易政策不确定性下降对采取不同竞争策略的多产品企业出口种类的影响存在显著差异,采取质量竞争策略的多产品企业比采取数量竞争策略的多产品企业在《框架协议》签署的外生冲击下,增加更多的出口产品种类。此外,《框架协议》签署对区域贸易政策不确定性下降幅度更大的多产品企业出口产品种类的促进作用更加明显。进一步,《框架协议》签署带来的区域贸易政策不确定性下降对多产品企业出口产品种类增加的影响主要通过创新效应发生作用,而学习效应没有显著的作用。以上结论在稳健性检验中仍然成立。该研究为中国实施FTA战略、评估RCEP政策,以及理解中国制造业企业的出口多样化和企业内产品组合决策提供了新的视角。

我国高校专项计划招生的实践检视与政策改进

从报名条件、选拔方式、录取方式、培养举措四个方面,对2022年全国95所高校专项计划实施高校的招生简章进行文本分析,发现各高校主流招生政策中存在报名要求设置较低、选拔方式较为简单、录取门槛设置过低、配套培养措施缺乏等诸多问题,并提出改进的建议,具体包括:转变工作理念,提高报名要求;发挥专家作用,重视材料审核;提高录取门槛,改进投档方式;配套培养举措,强化全程帮扶等。

我国中考体育政策执行的制约因素与路径选择——基于史密斯政策执行过程模型的视角

中考体育政策执行效果直接影响着我国中考体育的改革与发展。基于史密斯政策执行过程模型,运用文献资料法与逻辑分析法,对当前我国中考体育政策的实施过程进行梳理与分析。研究认为,政策有效推行不畅、机构运行效果滞后、目标认知偏差和外界阻力较大等都是阻滞中考体育政策有效执行的重要因素。提出中考体育政策执行的路径:强化政策制定体系,保证政策科学合理;完善政策执行机制,发挥多元协同作用;激发群体主动性,满足群体利益需求;营造良好政策环境,提升宣传保障效能。

从适应性到创新性:省级政策转化策略与选择逻辑——以C省乡村治理示范村镇创建标准制定过程为例

从委托代理理论来看,委托人与代理人之间存在信息不对称和利益冲突问题,代理人会作出不利于委托人的策略选择。在“适应性-创新性”分析框架下,作为代理人的省级行政部门存在动态的政策转化行为和策略选择。案例表明,适应性因素和创新性因素对政策转化行为产生双重影响。敷衍策略、保守策略、试点策略和创新策略构成省级部门的层级式策略选择逻辑,其核心是中心引领、资源约束、风险规避和绩效导向的驱动机制。研究发现,在央地复杂的“委托-代理”关系中,省级部门有可能作出符合委托人利益的策略选择,因此为确保中央政策目标的有效落实,应建立有效的沟通和约束机制,实现适应性与创新性的有机平衡,做到政策统一性与地方差异性的有效结合。

“N+X”政策背景下江苏省13个统筹区门诊特殊病政策比较研究

以门诊特殊病病种范围、保障水平及定点管理为切入点,在江苏省“N+X”政策背景下,对全省13个统筹区新出台的门诊特殊病相关政策进行梳理,探索各统筹区门诊特殊病管理的异同之处及现存的问题,并提供相关建议。江苏省发布了统一基本医保门诊特殊病保障政策的指导性文件,但各统筹区病种范围、保障水平的差异仍不容忽视,或将影响患者公平,阻碍全省统一的门诊特殊病病种制度建立。各统筹区在病种遴选、分级诊疗及门诊特殊病认定等方面也存有改善空间。建议在后续管理中建立全省统一的病种动态遴选机制、发挥好基层医疗卫生机构的作用、完善门诊特殊病认定标准。

地方政府对我国全民健身政策再制定的工具选择与优化策略——基于“作用-效力-范围”的三维分析框架

均衡完善的全民健身政策工具组合能够有效引导、激励和推动全民健身高质量发展与中国式现代化体育强国建设。本研究基于全民健身政策工具视角,以30个省级行政区域的《全民健身实施计划(2021—2025)》政策文本为分析样本,采用内容分析法,从政策工具作用层面、效力维度和适用范围等方面深入挖掘“十四五”阶段我国地方全民健身政策工具的类型特征与选择偏向。笔者发现:地方性全民健身政策工具的系统性和互补性尚未得到足够重视,政策制定存在配置不均、内部衔接不足等问题,而供给层工具的使用过溢不仅未能发挥需求层工具的应有作用,规制性手段的频繁使用也极易挫伤市场积极性,战略性措施的过量配置还会阻滞预期目标的达成。因此以“均衡协调”为导向、“供需适切”为基础、“合理有效”为目标来完善和优化政策执行环境与实施路径将有助于全民健身政策的全面落实与效力保障。

“港澳药械通”新药遴选评估维度及指标建立

目的建立“港澳药械通”新药遴选评估维度及指标。方法参考香港地区和澳门地区的注册管理体系和注册要求,以及医院新药引进制度,以《香港大学深圳医院新药评估循证医学原则》等为基础,明确遴选评估维度、指标和评价内容。结果以药学特性、有效性、急需性、安全性、伦理审查、社会效益6个维度、15个遴选指标建立了“港澳药械通”新药遴选模式,完善了港澳药品风险防范与管理措施。结论为粤港澳大湾区其他医疗机构开展药品遴选工作提供参考。

数字乡村标准化政策执行的内在逻辑分析

随着数字乡村标准体系建设指南的发行,各试点地区开始从数字化基础设施建设、平台运营与管理、体系保障等方面进行政策对标。但由于试点地区的经济社会发展水平、数字化基础和资源禀赋不同,数字乡村标准化政策的执行也会出现不同的结果。既有研究大多从数字乡村的内涵、机制、治理绩效和发展路径等方面进行了详细分析,但都未能回复现实数字乡村建设的政策执行过程中,其运行逻辑如何。基于过程性理论视角,考察Z市数字乡村标准化政策执行的内在逻辑,分析基层政府作为数字乡村标准化政策执行主体,如何从上级政府的压力传导中进行能动性执行从而维持利益平衡的。研究发现:Z市在试点初期,上级政府通过高位推动、注意力强化、科层动员与监督考核等压力传导方式企图推动政策执行。随着政策执行的深入,基层政府的双重身份使其在试点政策执行中会通过“成本-收益”法进行试点政策执行的理性实施。但利益选择存在着非理性弊端,还需重视基层政府的能力建设问题。此次研究拓展了政策执行的相关理论,跳出了政策执行的传统性研究,以过程视角打开了政策研究的方向,为数字乡村标准化建设提供了有效经验。

行动者认知、制度结构与政策工具选择——基于广东省J市低收入人口识别机制设计过程的分析

政策工具选择是行动者认知、政策情景、制度结构等多因素共同作用的结果,行动者认知与制度结构的动态性可能引起政策工具选择的变化。选取广东省J市低收入人口识别机制设计过程作为研究案例,以过程追踪为分析手段,提炼行动者认知与制度结构影响政策工具选择的作用机制。研究发现,科学知识与实践知识的互动促进了政策工具创新,但由于政治考量和制度的制约,政策工具选择出现了路径依赖。政策工具选择变动是政策学习与认知锁定两个机制先后作用的结果。

复合选择性执行:任务超载驱动的基层食品安全监管注意力再分配的效应

经典的选择性执行研究隐含地假定政策执行过程是连续统一的整体,难以解释政策执行阶段间的分离脱耦及由此形成的复杂的政策执行现象。对食品安全监管实践的个案研究发现,任务超载驱动的基层监管注意力再分配重塑了政策执行阶段间的关系和选择性政策执行的模式。首先,任务超载驱动了基层监管注意力从完成成本高的处罚阶段向成本低的检查阶段转移,并使本应紧密关联的这两个监管阶段分离脱耦。其次,在这两个阶段中,监管部门不再直接关注违规与否,而是分别根据监管事项与安全风险关联的强弱和上级督办压力的大小重新分配监管注意力,相应采取既查且罚、查而不罚、不查但罚和不查不罚四种执行策略,形成检查和处罚两阶段分离交叉的复合选择性执行模式,整体弱化了基层政策执行与治理。通过挑战经典研究的隐含假定,论文提炼出复合选择性执行的理论模型及其约束条件,呈现了基层任务超载的整体后果,兼容诸多政策执行现象,并推进组织注意力分配的理论思路。