Impact of rainfed and irrigated agriculture systems on soil carbon stock under different climate scenarios in the semi-arid region of Brazil

Understanding the dynamics of soil organic carbon(SOC) is of fundamental importance in land use and management, whether in the current researches or in future scenarios of agriculture systems considering climate change. In order to evaluate SOC stock of the three districts(Delmiro Gouveia, Pariconha, and Inhapi districts) in the semi-arid region of Brazil in rainfed and irrigated agriculture systems under different climate scenarios using the Century model, we obtained RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios derived from the Eta Regional Climate Model(Eta-Had GEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5) from the National Institute for Space Research, and then input the data of bulk density, p H, soil texture, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and rainfall into the soil and climate files of the Century model. The results of this study showed that the Eta-Had GEM2-ES model was effective in estimating air temperature in the future period. In rainfed agriculture system, SOC stock under the baseline scenario was lower than that under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, while in irrigated agriculture system, SOC stock in the almost all climate scenarios(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and models(Eta-Had GEM2-ES and Eta-MIROC5) will increase by 2100. The results of this study will help producers in the semi-arid region of Brazil adopt specific agriculture systems aimed at mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.

Relationship between Rainfall Instability and Agricultural Production in the Brazilian Semi-arid Region

The study evaluated the synergy between the indicators of rainfall,vegetation cover,land productivity in crop production,livestock production and the relationship between the value of aggregate agricultural production and the gross domestic product of municipalities in the semi-arid region of the State of Ceará,Brazil.The data sources are:CearáMeteorology and Water Resources Foundation(FUNCEME)and Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics(IBGE)for the years 1996,2006 and 2017.The research used the methodology of factor analysis(FA),with decomposition into principal components,to construct the index of agricultural production preservation(IAPP).The results showed that 1996 had the best rainfall levels and the highest IAPP values compared to the other years studied.Year of 2017 was the last one of a draught period that extended in Cearáfrom 2012 to 2017.In that year the lowest values for IAPP were observed.The main conclusion is:there was the expected interaction between rainfall and agricultural preservation indicators applied in the semi-arid region of the state of Cearáin the years 1996,2006 and 2017.

Can climate change influence agricultural GTFP in arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China?

There are eight provinces and autonomous regions(Gansu Province,Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,Tibet Autonomous Region,Qinghai Province,Shanxi Province,and Shaanxi Province)in Northwest China,most areas of which are located in arid and semi-arid regions(northwest of the 400 mm precipitation line),accounting for 58.74%of the country's land area and sustaining approximately 7.84×10^6 people.Because of drought conditions and fragile ecology,these regions cannot develop agriculture at the expense of the environment.Given the challenges of global warming,the green total factor productivity(GTFP),taking CO2 emissions as an undesirable output,is an effective index for measuring the sustainability of agricultural development.Agricultural GTFP can be influenced by both internal production factors(labor force,machinery,land,agricultural plastic film,diesel,pesticide,and fertilizer)and external climate factors(temperature,precipitation,and sunshine duration).In this study,we used the Super-slacks-based measure(Super-SBM)model to measure agricultural GTFP during the period 2000-2016 at the regional level.Our results show that the average agricultural GTFP of most provinces and autonomous regions in arid and semi-arid regions underwent a fluctuating increase during the study period(2000-2016),and the fluctuation was caused by the production factors(input and output factors).To improve agricultural GTFP,Shaanxi,Shanxi,and Gansu should reduce agricultural labor force input;Shaanxi,Inner Mongolia,Gansu,and Shanxi should decrease machinery input;Shaanxi,Inner Mongolia,Xinjiang,and Shanxi should reduce fertilizer input;Shaanxi,Xinjiang,Gansu,and Ningxia should reduce diesel input;Xinjiang and Gansu should decrease plastic film input;and Gansu,Shanxi,and Inner Mongolia should cut pesticide input.Desirable output agricultural earnings should be increased in Qinghai and Tibet,and undesirable output(CO2 emissions)should be reduced in Inner Mongolia,Xinjiang,Gansu,and Shaanxi.Agricultural GTFP is influenced not only by internal production factors but also by external climate factors.To determine the influence of climate factors on GTFP in these provinces and autonomous regions,we used a Geographical Detector(Geodetector)model to analyze the influence of climate factors(temperature,precipitation,and sunshine duration)and identify the relationships between different climate factors and GTFP.We found that temperature played a significant role in the spatial heterogeneity of GTFP among provinces and autonomous regions in arid and semi-arid regions.For Xinjiang,Inner Mongolia,and Tibet,a suitable average annual temperature would be in the range of 7℃-9℃;for Gansu,Shanxi,and Ningxia,it would be 11℃-13℃;and for Shaanxi,it would be 15℃-17℃.Stable climatic conditions and more efficient production are prerequisites for the development of sustainable agriculture.Hence,in the agricultural production process,reducing the redundancy of input factors is the best way to reduce CO2 emissions and to maintain temperatures,thereby improving the agricultural GTFP.The significance of this study is that it explores the impact of both internal production factors and external climatic factors on the development of sustainable agriculture in arid and semi-arid regions,identifying an effective way forward for the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China.

Discussion on an Eco-Agriculture Model in the Semi-Arid Region of China

The semi-arid region of China covers an area of 2.2 x106km2. Water shortage in this region is the core but not the only one factor for the sustainable development of agriculture. Effective application of the energy and all kinds of resources and overall maintenance of the balance of ecological environment must be emphasized for sustainable development of the agriculture in the region. The extensive development of rural yard-economy is the only way to realize the intensive agricultural development there. A model is developed on the basis of our studies in recent years.

Water Resource Management and Its Role in Development of Integrated Mountainous Agriculture——A Case from Ningnan County of Sichuan Province

This paper reviewed rainwater collection and water resource management in Ningnan County in southwestern mountain of China,as a case study for solving the problems of water management in a simple and sustainable way. In this mountainous agriculture system,private agricultural enterprises were introduced into local mountain agriculture to solve capital fund shortage for the construction of rainwater harvesting system. Agreement was signed by private agriculture enterprises with the target farmers to subscribe for the household agriculture production at a protection price. Cash invested by the enterprise and subsidy from the government were collected for purchasing materials,while the farmers supplied labors for the construction of water harvesting systems. The system solved the share of input and benefits between the local government,enterprise and household farms successfully. In addition,the micro water harvesting tanks and micro irrigate systems extend quickly in this mountainous county. Up to 2007,more than 12 000 rainwater harvesting tanks had been established and more than 8.5×104 hm2 dry arable land accounting for nearly 75% of the total arable land had been irrigated efficiently. Per capita income of farmer had been increased by 14 times in the past 20 years. Considerable potential for further improvement in implementation of the models for solving water shortage and water resource management in mountain region maybe depend on more local private agriculture enterprises and households than the government.

半干旱雨养农业区春小麦水分利用效率变化及其年型划分

如何利用有限的水分获得更多的作物产量是干旱半干旱农业发展的目标和挑战。以半干旱雨养农业区春小麦为突破口,研究了其在不同气候年型下对不同来源的水分利用效率,以选择适宜种植春小麦的气候年型,旨在为半干旱雨养农业区农民种植决策提供依据。以半干旱雨养农业区的典型代表区域定西市安定区为例,采用定西地面气象观测站与定西农业气象试验站1987—2011年的观测资料,分析了当地春小麦对不同来源水分的利用效率及其影响因素。结果表明,定西市安定区1987—2011年25 a间春小麦主要生育期气候存在暖干化趋势,但春小麦降水利用效率和播前土壤水分利用效率均未出现明显的变化。播前土壤水分是影响生育期降水利用效率的主要因素,但生育期大气干湿状况对降水利用效率也有影响。同时,大气干湿状况影响播前土壤水分利用效率,而播前土壤水分的高低对大气干湿状况与播前土壤水分利用效率的关系亦有影响。根据播前土壤水分、主要生育期大气干湿状况、春小麦历年产量,可将半干旱雨养农业区(定西市安定区)春小麦生长的气候年型划分为5个,分别为高产年份、中高产年份、中产年份、中等偏低产量年份、低产水平年份。不同气候年型下,降水利用效率和播前土壤水分利用效率不相同。水分限制情形下,在春小麦达到最大水分利用效率之前,越是适宜的环境,越有利于提高春小麦水分利用效率。在相对适宜的气候条件下,春小麦对播前50 cm土壤水分的利用效率要高于对主要生育期降水的利用效率。因此,选择播前土壤水分高、大气湿润的气候年型种植春小麦能够保证获得较高产量。

植被状态指数监测西北干旱的适用性分析

利用1982—2003年22年逐月GIMMS 8 km分辨率的NDVI数据和西北地区138个气象台站同期月降水数据,分析了植被状态指数(VCI)对西北地区历史干旱的监测能力。根据西北气候和植被类型的特点,选取雨养农业区、灌溉农业区和青藏高原高寒草原区为典型研究区域,研究了VCI对不同地区气象干旱的监测能力,并对VCI监测干旱的适应性进行分析。结果表明:VCI可以较好地反映西北大部分历史干旱的空间分布及其演变特征。对于不同的气候区域,VCI监测干旱的效果存在一定的差别。对于西北东部的雨养农业区,VCI能够较好地反映降水的盈亏对植被影响,是监测这一地区干旱的有效指标;在西北区西部的灌溉农业区,VCI基本不能反映这一地区降水的多寡,不能作为这些地区气象干旱监测的指标;VCI也不能反映青藏高原高寒草原区降水的亏缺,不能作为监测这些地区气象干旱的指标;在极涡干旱的戈壁、沙漠地区VCI会出现虚假的高值。

旱农区域资源可持续利用模式评价指标

本文界定了“区域农业资源可持续利用模式”的内函特征，在确立基本指标、关系指标和功能指标的基础上，完成旱农区域资源持续利用模式评价指标的初步设置，该指标体系包括动态性、效应性、协调性、稳定性、自组性、开放性６个功能指标组，并对模式评价指标选择、指标综合量化方法作了初步的探讨。

甘肃雨养农业区降雨概率特征研究

利用甘肃雨养农业区 19个代表站点的 4 0a降雨量资料 ,结合weibull、gringorfen等概率统计分析的方法 ,对这一地区的降雨概率特征进行了研究 ,结果表明 ,甘肃雨养农业区各站年降雨量与其概率对数相关显著 ,可以利用所得关系式计算任一概率下的降雨量 ;各站年降雨量服从正态分布 ,也可用正态法求算任一概率下的降雨量 ;甘肃雨养农业区年平均有效降雨量理论上可以满足小麦生育期的作物需水量。

北方旱农区产业结构优化研究

北方旱农区产业结构应包括种植业结构、畜牧业结构、林业生态结构及非农产业结构，进而组成高产、优质、高效的农业综合性开发结构。选准主导产业、调整结构、提高效益，是规范和指导旱农区实现有效开发、脱贫致富的行动指南。产业结构规划要遵循因地、因时制宜，量力而行，定性与定量分析预测相结合，分部、分层决策与整体优化相结合的原则。

气候变化对甘肃省雨养农业区玉米种植区划的影响

以甘肃省雨养农业区55个气象站1971—2015年气温和降水实测资料为基础,根据玉米生长发育对气象条件的需求,运用综合评判法筛选出7月平均气温、≥10℃积温和年降水量作为玉米种植适宜性气候区划指标。采用线性倾向率法、累积距平、ArcGIS空间分析技术及Mann-Kendall法对研究区气候指标的时空变化特征及其突变进行了分析,结合玉米种植地理分布信息,建立适宜度评价模型,对气候变化背景下玉米种植适宜区的空间分布变化进行分析。结果表明:(1)近45 a来,甘肃省雨养农业区7月平均气温和≥10℃积温均呈明显的上升趋势,以0.29、98.13℃·10 a^(-1)的速率显著增暖,并分别于1994年、2000年发生突变;年降水量总体呈减少趋势,存在强烈波动变化,以-2.57 mm·10 a^(-1)的速率缓慢下降,1988年发生突变。(2)从空间分布来看,7月平均气温和≥10℃积温总体呈现出由北向南、由西向东递增的格局;降水量空间变化不规律,研究区中部降水少,四周降水较多。(3)气候变化导致研究区玉米可种植区域向高海拔地区移动,海拔上移了500 m,玉米种植的界限发生了较明显的空间位移,北移、西扩显著,从陇中、陇东、陇南地区扩展至甘南地区,适宜于种植的耕地总面积达2.27×10^(6) hm^(2),比2000年前增加了5.85×10^(4) hm^(2),在总耕地面积的基础上增加了2.4%,其中最适宜区增加最为显著,达15.9%。玉米种植适宜程度区划的区域分配有差异,2000年后甘肃省雨养农业区玉米种植最适宜区耕地面积较之前增加3.84×10^(5) hm^(2),次适宜区、适宜区和不适宜区耕地面积分别缩小2.54×10^(5) hm^(2)、7.1×10^(4) hm^(2)和5.9×10^(4) hm^(2)。

覆膜栽培方式对雨养区马铃薯土壤酶活性和土壤微生物及产量的影响

【目的】为了给宁夏南部雨养农业区马铃薯田合理使用地膜栽培方式提供依据。【方法】进行了不同覆膜栽培方式对马铃薯田土壤酶活性、土壤微生物数量及马铃薯产量影响的试验。【结果】各处理中微生物数量均表现为细菌>放线菌>真菌;土壤酶活性表现为蔗糖酶>磷酸酶>脲酶>过氧化氢酶。马铃薯产量以单垄双行全覆膜栽培最高,马铃薯产量与不同的土壤酶、土壤微生物相关性不同,且各处理间土壤微生物数量与土壤酶活性均表现为单垄双行全覆膜垄上种植明显高于对照。【结论】综合分析各项指标,单垄双行全覆膜栽培方式最有利于增加雨养农业区马铃薯土壤微生物数量,提高土壤酶活性以及马铃薯的产量,可以作为当地马铃薯增产种植的首选模式。

黄土高原降水年内分布差异对旱作果园蒸散特征的影响

天然降水是雨养农业区水文循环的主要驱动因子,在一定程度上决定着土壤水分生态环境,从而影响作物的蒸散特征。本研究通过分析静宁地区历年降水年内分布特征,明确了降水的集中趋势,在2018和2019年田间定位试验基础上,探究土壤水分随降水发生的变化过程以及果园蒸散特征对降水年内分布差异的响应规律。结果表明:试验区历年降水集中度较高,集中期多分布在7和8月,8月所占比例达75%,且各年降水集中期出现的早晚变化较大。土壤水分对降水的响应主要集中在0~40 cm土层,深层水分只有在大雨量和连续性降水出现时才会发生明显变化。同为丰水年的情况下,2018年降水集中度高,集中期早,时间短,果树日耗水强度呈单峰结构,变幅较大;2019年降水分布均匀,集中期滞后,日耗水强度呈双峰结构,变幅小,大峰靠后。果树最大需水期历时长,2018年大雨的集中分布无法满足后期果树生理需水,果实产量受损,降水利用效率较2019年下降30.2%。黄土高原地区在苹果树幼果生长期往往会出现短暂干旱,影响果实品质,需加强该时段的水分管控。