In the paper, we introduce Allegre′s scaling-rule theory of rock fracture and the probability to develop a method for predicting earthquake occurrence time on its basis. As an example, we study the characteristics of...In the paper, we introduce Allegre′s scaling-rule theory of rock fracture and the probability to develop a method for predicting earthquake occurrence time on its basis. As an example, we study the characteristics of seismological precursors (seismic spatial correlation length and coda Qc) associated with the earthquake (M=6.1) occurred in Shandan-Minle, Gansu Province. The results show an increasing trend of seismic spatial correlation length and coda Qc before the earthquake. And a power exponent relation is used to fit the increasing variation form of these two parameters. The study has provided a basis for creating a method and finding indexes to predict the earthquake occurrence time by using the monitored seismic spatial correlation length and coda Qc.展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (40574026).
文摘In the paper, we introduce Allegre′s scaling-rule theory of rock fracture and the probability to develop a method for predicting earthquake occurrence time on its basis. As an example, we study the characteristics of seismological precursors (seismic spatial correlation length and coda Qc) associated with the earthquake (M=6.1) occurred in Shandan-Minle, Gansu Province. The results show an increasing trend of seismic spatial correlation length and coda Qc before the earthquake. And a power exponent relation is used to fit the increasing variation form of these two parameters. The study has provided a basis for creating a method and finding indexes to predict the earthquake occurrence time by using the monitored seismic spatial correlation length and coda Qc.
