Sustainable Intensification and Large-scale Operation of Cultivated Land Use at the Farmers’ Scale:A Case Study of Shandong Province,China

Sustainable intensification of cultivated land use(SICLU) and large-scale operations(LSO) are widely acknowledged strategies for enhancing agricultural performance.However,the existing literature has faced challenges in precisely defining SICLU and constructing comprehensive indicators,which has hindered the exploration of factors influencing LSO within the SICLU framework.To address this gap,we integrated self-efficacy theory into the design of an index framework for evaluating SICLU.We subsequently employed econometric models to analyze the significant factors that impact LSO.Our findings reveal that SICLU can be divided into four key dimensions:intensive management,efficient output,resource conservation,and ecological environment optimization.Furthermore,it is crucial to incorporate belief-based cognitive factors into the index system,as farmers’ understanding of fertilizer and pesticide application significantly influences their willingness to engage in LSO.Moreover,we identify grain market turnover as the most influential factor in promoting LSO,with single-factor contribution rates reaching 70.9% for cultivated land transfer willingness and 62.5% for the total planting areas.Interestingly,unlike irrigation and agricultural machinery inputs,increased labor inputs correspond to larger planting areas for farmers.This trend may be attributed to reduced labor availability because of rural labor migration,whereas the reduction in irrigation and agricultural input is contingent on innovations in production practices and the transfer of cultivated land management rights.Importantly,SICLU dynamically influences LSO,with each index related to SICLU having an optimal range that fosters LSO.These insights offer valuable guidance for policymakers,emphasizing farmers as their central focus,with the adjustment of input and output factors as a means to achieve LSO as the ultimate goal.In conclusion,we propose research avenues for further enriching the SICLU framework to ensure that it aligns with the specific characteristics of regional agricultural development.

Soil Quality Evaluation and Technology Research on Improving Land Capability——A Case Study on Huanghuaihai Plain in Shandong Province

Based on the geochemical data obtained from the national project about the prevention and control of soil contamination, this paper explored the properties of soil chemical elements in Huanghuaihai Plain, Shandong Province. The results showed that among the grade-one nutritive elements in soil, organic matter, nitrogen and phosphorus were relatively deficient while potassium was rich. Meanwhile, as the grade-two nutritive elements, calcium oxide and magnesium oxide were relatively short and sulfur’s content was abundant. About the other beneficial and trace nutri-tive elements, iron oxide, manganese, molybdenum and boron were deficient, but the content of chlorine was high, hardly lack. The main barriers to improving land productivity were soil salinization and soil heavy metal contamination. The values of soil integrated fertility index that most of the soil in the study area is middle-lower fertilized. Specifical y, the low fertility area and lower fertility area are 6 1604 and 1 244 km2 respectively, occupying about 97.43% and 1.97% of the total area. The moderate fertility soil has an area of 172 km2, occupying about 0.27% of the total area. The higher fertility soil covers an area of 128 km2, while the high fertility area of only 76 km2. This article proposed scientific fertilization, elimination of soil obsta-cle, remediation of heavy-metal-contaminated soil and other effective measures to improve land productivity according to the basic investigation results, which provides a good technological support for the planning and development of good-quality and high-benefit agriculture.

On arable land changes in Shandong Province and their driving forces

The decrease of total cultivated area and the lower per capita available arable land resource are now serious problems in Shandong Province, a major agricultural province in China. These problems will become more serious along with the further development of economy. In this paper, based on the statistical information at provincial and county levels, the changes of arable land in Shandong Province and their driving forces during the last 50 years are analyzed. The general changing trends of arable land and per capita available arable land are reducing, and the trends of decrease will continue when the economy is developing. The result of GIS spatial analysis shows that the change of the arable land use in Shandong Province has a regional difference. Eight variables having influences on cultivated land change are analyzed by principal component analysis. The results show that the dynamic development of economy, pressure of social system and progress of scientific techniques in agriculture are the main causes for cultivated land reduction. The principal factors which can be considered as driving forces for arable land change include per capita net living space, total population and per ha grain yield. By using regressive equation, along with analysis on population growth and economic development, cultivated areas in Shandong Province in 2005 and 2010 are predicted respectively. The predicted cultivated areas in Shandong will be 6435.47 thousand hain 2005 and 6336.23 thousand ha in 2010 respectively.

Study on the Sustainable Use of Land-water Resources in Shandong Province of China Based on Food Security

After the analysis of food security of Shandong Province since 1990s, based on the change of grain output and per unit grain yield, it was considered that food production of Shandong Province was generally stable; through comparing the proportion of per capita possession of grains and per unit grain yield of Shandong Province in the whole country, it revealed that they were higher than the national average level. On this basis, the relationship between land-water resources and food security had been analyzed, and it summarized that Shandong water resources were insufficient, agricultural water was not enough and water had been seriously polluted; and that cultivated area was large and the overall quality was high. Meanwhile, it had analyzed the spatial pattern of land-water resources and the loss of water and soil. Finally, suggestions for the sustainable use of land-water resources in Shandong Province based on food security had been proposed. It should enhance the construction of basic agricultural facilities and implement united dispatching of multiple water resources; strengthen the supervision of cultivated land resources and comprehensively develop reserve resources of cultivated lands; and intensify the treatment of land-water resources and prevention of the loss of water and soil in key areas.

The sea/land breeze in the northern coastal area of Shandong Peninsula

In this paper the seasonal variation and structural characteristics of the sea/ land breeze in the northern coastal area of' Shandong Peninsula are studied in two ways: one is the analysis of the observed wind data, and the other is numerical simulation and experiments. Firstly, the hour to hour wind data through the year 1984 at Longkou Meteorological Station and Yantai Oceanographic Station are analysed through energy spectra and hodograph. It is revealed from the analysed results that the effects of the sea/ land breeze in the area are notable in spring, summer and fall, especially in May. However, in winter the effects of sea / land breeze are not obvious. because the cold noitherly is prevailing. Secondly, a two-dimensional non- linear model of primitive equations is used to study the sea / land breeze circulation in May in the area. The results of numerical simulation consist basically with the analysed results of the observed sea / land breeze. A reasonable theoretical structure of the sea / land breeze circulation is displayed, and a new undeerslanding of the developmental mechanism of land breeze circulation in that area is obtained. Lastly, numerical experiments about the effects of large scale wind and temperature fields upon the sea / land breeze circulation are performed.

HRCLDAS与ERA5-Land气温日统计数据在山东地区的对比评估

基于山东省2021年3月—2022年2月1519个气象观测站2 m气温观测数据,对中国气象局高分辨率陆面数据同化系统(High Resolution China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System,HRCLDAS)和欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代陆面再分析数据集(ERA5-Land)逐小时2 m气温分析的日统计数据(平均气温、最高气温、最低气温)进行对比评估。结果显示:(1)HRCLDAS/ERA5-Land日统计平均气温、最高气温、最低气温的均方根误差分别为0.1/1.2℃、0.6/1.9℃、0.4/1.7℃,表明HRCLDAS具有更高的精度,且在不同地理区域、不同海拔高度的表现均优于ERA5-Land,大部地区的偏差(-0.5~0.5℃)远低于ERA5-Land(-2.0~2.0℃)。(2)两套数据对高温及寒潮过程的监测能力对比评估表明,HRCLDAS能够捕捉到大部分的高温以及寒潮过程,其与观测的高温日数及寒潮日数空间分布较为相似,但对影响范围存在一定的低估;ERA5-Land则只能监测到部分高温及寒潮过程,并对高温日数与寒潮日数存在严重的低估。

Analysis of Land Use Changes in the Watershed of Nansi Lake,Shandong Province

Change of land use is related to regional food security and ecological security.This study analyzed structural changes,quantity changes and spatial changes of land resource utilization in the watershed of the Nansi Lake,Shandong Province from 2000 to 2012 on the basis of land use investigation data and relevant socio-economic data in the study period.It is to disclose the problems in the utilization of local land resources,and provide scientific support for the scientific management of land resources and sustainable development of social economy.

Regional Study on Economical Supporting Capacity of Land Resources in Shandong Province

Taking the land resources of 17 cities in Shandong Province as the basic data, the article studied on the economical supporting capacity of land resources in terms of the effect of land on economy. The author classified 17 cities of Shandong Province into four types according to the economical supporting capacity of land resources by quantitatively estimating the evaluation indices of the total amount of land resources, the potential of urban and other nonagricultural land, and the integrated economical sup- porting capacity of land resources, etc. The author proposes the questions requiring further study at the end of this article.

Conversion Margins for the Major Uses of Agricultural Land and Their Variations in Shandong Province, China

It is of practical significance for the decision-making on country food security and farmland protection to analyze the conversion margins for the major uses of agricultural land and their variations. Based on the panel data of wheat, corn, vegetable, fruit, and forests productions from 520 investigated farmer households of 13 investigated villages in Shandong Province from 2003 to 2009, and using Cobb-Douglas production function, the revenue conversion margins can be obtained separately, between different grain-crops （wheat, corn） and different non-grain crops （vegetable, fruit, forests）, and the conversion relationship between growing grain（ wheat, corn） and going out for non-farm work. The results show that from 2003 to 2009, growing wheat and corn are more economically and reasonably for farmers, compared with growing vegetable, but growing wheat and corn are becoming less economically and less reasonably day by day, compared with planting forests. Moreover, the conversion margin between wheat and fruit shows obvious scissors difference. Just from 2007, farm- ers＇ growing fruit became economically and reasonably, but until 2009, compared with going out to work after abandoning farm- land, growing wheat had no economic rationality. From 2003 to 2009, farmers＇ growing corn is more profitable than growing fruit and going out for non-farm work after abandoning farmland. The subsidies for wheat and corn have increased farmers＇ comparative income from food production remarkably, but the subsidies cannot change the general tendency that farmers transform food （wheat, corn） production into non-food （especially forests） production. The revenue difference between growing wheat, corn and vegetable and growing fruit and forests is being pulled ceaselessly bigger, and the tendency that farmers transform wheat, corn and vegetable growing lands into fruit and forests growing lands has become increasingly apparent.

黄河流域(山东段)工业用地错配时空格局与应对策略

以黄河流域(山东段)9个设区市所辖77个区县为研究单元,利用2011—2020年山东省供地信息库中的工业用地供应数据,以及同期工业经济统计数据,分析黄河流域(山东段)工业用地供应与工业利润总额时空变化特征,通过空间错配指数分析工业用地错配时空格局,并从科学配置、存量挖潜、提质增效和层级协同4个方面提出应对策略。研究对于实现黄河流域(山东段)土地资源高效利用与聚集区域高质量发展具有重要意义。

驳地主与农民关系的错误言论——以减租减息运动前的山东为例

从减租减息运动前的山东来看,地主与农民之间存在着残酷的剥削与被剥削关系。地主阶级依仗权势及其所占有的土地、财产,肆意对农民进行惨无人道的剥削和压迫。他们贪婪成性、凶狠残暴、作恶多端。大量事实表明:地主对农民的剥削根本没有什么合理性,地主也不是什么心地善良、乐善好施的好人,广大农民在他们的残酷剥削和压迫下,生活困苦、饥寒交迫,终日挣扎在死亡线上。地主与农民之间的矛盾就是当时农村社会的主要矛盾。

城中采煤塌陷地土地利用和生态系统服务价值演变研究——以山东济宁太白湖新区为例

城中采煤塌陷地严重限制了城市发展,影响了生态系统服务的供给。因此,城中采煤塌陷地的生态修复与开发利用更为迫切和重要。本文利用2000—2021年遥感影像数据,采用土地利用变化分析和生态系统服务价值当量模型研究了太白湖新区采煤塌陷地土地利用和生态系统服务价值时空演变,探讨了主要驱动因素。结果表明:采煤塌陷地土地利用以耕地和水域占优,其次是建设用地,林地和草地再次之;各地类间的转移以耕地向水域转出为主,其次是耕地向建设用地的转移。生态系统服务总价值(ESV)呈长期显著增加后小幅回落;水域生态系统服务价值大幅增加,耕地价值显著减少,林地和草地价值较小;水文调节、废物处理、气候调节3项服务功能价值量相对较大;ESV高值区由西南向东南、中部、北部不断扩张,随后向中部聚集。土地利用和ESV变化主要是由城镇化建设、采煤塌陷、采煤塌陷地修复治理和政策驱动共同驱动造成的。

明清山东食盐运销网络与地方社会

明清山东食盐运输水路与陆路结合,舳舻相接的水路与车马辐辏的陆路交错相通。其运输网络包括三条线路:一是沿大清河或小清河溯流西行,在沿线的关卡、码头和盐园地区分运,如蒲台批验所、泺口批验所、南桥、黄台桥,再继续沿河溯流水运,或向北向南陆运入境;二是沿运河南下北向,在运河沿线的关所、码头和盐园分运,如阿城、安居、南阳、夏镇,再继续沿河水运,或向东向西陆运入境;三是自沿海盐场直接陆运至境内,如大多数票地。水陆联运的综合运输网络,既保证了山东全境,以及河南、安徽和江苏三省部分地区的食盐问题,也促进了当地经济和社会的发展。

基于RSEI的山东省不同土地覆盖区生态环境质量变化特征及驱动因素

[目的]厘清城市化建设的持续推进下山东省目前的生态环境质量时空状况及其演化的主要驱动因子,对认清山东省生态环境现状及后期制定切实可靠的保护战略和制度至关重要。[方法]基于1991—2021年的综合指标——遥感生态指数(remote sensing ecological index,RSEI)并辅以Sen趋势法、变异系数法、Hurst指数法和地理探测器对山东省生态环境质量变化特征及其变化的驱动因子进行了探究。[结果](1)1991—2000年山东省生态环境质量总体为下降趋势,变化较为稳定;2001—2010年RSEI总体呈增加趋势,以稳定变化趋势为主;2011—2021年RSEI变化大部分区域呈稳定状态,林地和耕地区域RSEI为增加趋势,其他土地利用类型均为减小趋势。(2)RSEI未来一段时期内以增加趋势为主,且不同土地利用类型区域未来一段时间内变化趋势与过去31 a相反。(3)1990—2000年、2001—2010年土地利用变化对山东省RSEI空间分布变化的影响最大,2011—2021年RSEI空间分布变化受到湿度变化和土地利用变化的影响较大,且土地利用与其他因子间的交互作用对RSEI的影响均较大。[结论]山东省不同时段、不同生态环境质量对环境因子的敏感性存在显著差异,这是因为不同区域人类活动强度、方式和不同区域生态环境脆弱性存在差异。生态环境质量的可视化表达可以较好地反映生态环境质量时空演化特征,为维护人-生态环境平衡的决策制定提供重要的参考信息。

山东省耕地利用净碳汇变化与耕地利用效益关系研究

本文以粮食主产区山东省为例,运用净碳汇核算模型和库兹涅茨曲线等方法,测算2001―2020年山东省16个地级市耕地利用净碳汇,阐明耕地利用净碳汇时空变化与耕地经济效益及其社会效益的关系。结果表明:①2001―2020年山东省耕地发挥巨大碳汇作用,净碳汇总量呈波动上升态势。2020年,山东省耕地利用净碳汇量增幅达33.052%,已超过全国总量的1/9。②山东省耕地利用净碳汇具有明显的空间非均衡性特征,呈现西南高–东北低的空间格局。仅2020年,净碳汇高值区是低值区的13.743倍。③山东省16个地级市耕地利用净碳汇与单位面积耕地产值之间存在上升–下降–再上升的“N”型库兹涅茨曲线关系。④山东省各地级市耕地利用净碳汇与农村居民人均可支配收入之间呈现显著的倒“U”型库兹涅茨曲线关系。耕地利用净碳汇的时空变化与耕地利用经济效益、耕地利用社会效益之间有显著的响应关系。

基于Landsat8 OLI数据的山东省耕地信息提取研究

为了探讨美国最新发射的陆地卫星Landsat8 OLI影像在耕地信息提取方面的效果,为了解该影像的应用潜力提供一些信息,采用遥感图像处理软件ENVI,对覆盖山东省区域的12幅Landsat8 OLI影像进行了计算机校正和增强处理,通过目视解释、监督分类和非监督分类交互式的分类方法提取山东省的耕地信息。结果表明,基于Landsat8 OLI数据提取耕地信息适宜波段是543波段和652波段组合,提取精度达到91.8%,Landsat8 OLI数据可以满足耕地利用及管理中对耕地信息适时获取的要求。

鲁西南黄泛区耕地格局变化特征及其影响因素

[目的]探讨鲁西南黄泛区耕地的空间格局、变化特点及其影响因素,为区域耕地保护提供科学依据。[方法]基于2m高分遥感影像,结合野外调查和《菏泽市统计年鉴》,采用遥感解译、重心模型、冷热点分析、地理探测器等方法,分析2019—2022年鲁西南黄泛区耕地空间分布、重心迁移、年际变化特征及影响因素。[结果](1)2019—2022年鲁西南黄泛区耕地面积占区域60%以上,每年均存在耕地流失现象,流失面积呈现逐年递减趋势,郓城县耕地面积减少最多,达18.28 km^(2),鄄城耕地动态度变化最大,达-2.26%;耕地重心整体向东北方向迁移。(2)耕地流出面积高于流入面积,主要流出方向和流入方向均为建设用地和林地,耕地变动最集中的区域主要分布在曹县南部。(3)对耕地变化影响最强的单因子是农村从业人员(X_(5)),最强的双因子交互组合是农村劳动力资源数(X_(4))和城镇居民人均收入(X_(6))。[结论]鲁西南黄泛区2019—2022年耕地流失是经济社会因子为主的多因子综合作用的结果。

基于随机森林算法的土地利用动态变化分析

为探究山东半岛土地利用的动态变化,文章以山东半岛为研究区,利用GEE平台,以Landsat遥感影像、DEM数据、光谱指数数据为基础,基于随机森林算法对1991—2021年山东半岛7期土地利用分类数据进行提取,并对山东半岛1991—2021年土地利用动态变化进行分析。分析结果表明:每期数据的OA指数均超过87%,Kappa系数均在0.85以上,说明随机森林分类算法分类精度可靠;建设用地、水域两类用地面积增加,耕地、未利用地、草地三类用地面积减少,林地面积整体变化较小,呈现较稳定的状态。研究结果有助于优化山东半岛的土地利用格局与生态环境保护。

2010—2017年中国典型城市群土地利用格局变化及其驱动力比较分析

明确典型城市群土地利用格局变化及其驱动力,对生态环境保护与国土空间规划有重要意义。以2010与2017年哈长城市群、山东半岛城市群和海峡西岸城市群土地利用变更调查数据为基础,采用土地利用变化幅度、土地利用变化速率、土地利用类型转移矩阵等定量和定性方法对2010—2017年三大城市群的土地利用格局变化及其驱动力进行比较分析。结果表明,三大城市群的主要土地利用变化表现为其他土地利用类型向建设用地的转化,其规模由大到小依次为:海峡西岸城市群(2186.27 km^(2))>山东半岛城市群(1056.45km^(2))>哈长城市群(897.91km^(2));海峡西岸城市群的耕地面积表现为净增长(192.00 km^(2)),其中流失面积为18755.00km^(2),新增面积为18948.00km^(2),而其余两个城市群的耕地变化则以净流失为主。人口增长、经济发展、交通建设是三大城市群建设用地扩张的主要驱动力,而气候变暖促进了哈长城市群新增耕地的北移。研究得出三大城市群土地利用格局变化及其驱动力存在明显差异。

中国山东平原区和美国大休斯顿地区地面沉降监测与防控对比

中国山东省平原区和美国大休斯顿地区都存在过量开采地下水引发的地面沉降问题,休斯顿积累了100多年的监测成果和50多年防控经验,与山东省平原区30多年来的地面沉降监测与防控经验具有一定的相似性。为进一步推动和加强山东省地面沉降监测与防治、地下水资源管理、数字赋能和数据共享,文章对两个地区的地面沉降成因、监测技术、地下水管理和地面沉降防控进行了对比分析。结果表明:过度抽取地下水是导致地面沉降的主要原因,两地都采取了以限制地下水开采为主的地面沉降管理措施,当前沉降面积和沉降速率都趋于减小;两地目前使用的监测方法和技术基本相同,主要使用精密水准测量、分层标或深孔伸缩仪、全球卫星定位系统和干涉合成孔径雷达技术,观测点的密度和监测频次都在逐步增加。然而,两地在观测数据的管理和共享方面存在很大差异。休斯顿地区的地面沉降管理部门主要负责采集数据和协调数据共享,不承担观测数据的处理和研究任务,所有的观测数据都向社会开放,基于观测数据的研究工作主要由美国地质调查局和大学的研究团体承担,研究成果公开发表;山东平原区的地面沉降和地下水位监测由自然资源和水利部门承担,下属的事业单位承担野外观测、数据保管、数据分析和研究,为制定地下水管理规章制度提供科技支撑,部门间的数据共享和整合存在一定困难,限制了对地面沉降的深入系统研究。