Different single-factor models are used to estimate the term structure of Hong Kong Inter-Bank Offered Rates （HIBOR）. These models use stochastic differential equations which effectively reflect market characteristi...Different single-factor models are used to estimate the term structure of Hong Kong Inter-Bank Offered Rates （HIBOR）. These models use stochastic differential equations which effectively reflect market characteristics of short- and long-term interest rates, such as capability of mean reversion and interest rate level fluctuation. For the period from 2005 to early 2007, the economy of Hong Kong had been relatively stable with pretty low volatilities in interest rate. However, starting from 2008 to beginning of 2012, the Hong Kong and the world economies had been steering from relatively stable to fluctuations, the 2008 financial tsunami initiated by the U,S. had been causing financial instability globally. With the U.S： government taking quantitative easing monetary policy, U.S. interest rates fluctuated and submerged rapidly. Volatility of HIBOR was extremely sensitive to fluctuation of U.S. interest rates, since Hong Kong dollar exchange rate has been pegged with U.S. dollar. In short, during the period of early 2008 to early 2012, volatility of short-term interest rate was extremely sensitive. Obviously, the term structure of interest rate for these two periods had made major shift, combining the two periods would lead to unfavorable econometric results.展开更多
This study investigated the impact of China’s monetary policy on both the money market and stock markets,assuming that non-policy variables would not respond contemporaneously to changes in policy variables.Monetary ...This study investigated the impact of China’s monetary policy on both the money market and stock markets,assuming that non-policy variables would not respond contemporaneously to changes in policy variables.Monetary policy adjustments are swiftly observed in money markets and gradually extend to the stock market.The study examined the effects of monetary policy shocks using three primary instruments:interest rate policy,reserve requirement ratio,and open market operations.Monthly data from 2007 to 2013 were analyzed using vector error correction(VEC)models.The findings suggest a likely presence of long-lasting and stable relationships among monetary policy,the money market,and stock markets.This research holds practical implications for Chinese policymakers,particularly in managing the challenges associated with fluctuation risks linked to high foreign exchange reserves,aiming to achieve autonomy in monetary policy and formulate effective monetary strategies to stimulate economic growth.展开更多
This paper examines the roadmap of interest rate liberalisation in China,including the current dual-track interest rate system and the future benchmark rate system.It provides a theoretical foundation for China to dev...This paper examines the roadmap of interest rate liberalisation in China,including the current dual-track interest rate system and the future benchmark rate system.It provides a theoretical foundation for China to develop its own benchmark interest rate.A vector autoregression model is estimated to investigate the effectiveness of Chinese market interest rates,Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate(SHIBOR),and repo rates against different factors such as market size,volatility,transmission channels of monetary policy,and term structures of interest rates.The result shows that SHIBOR affects both the market and the economy.As SHIBOR promptly reflects the changes in currency markets,we argue that it has the potential to become China’s benchmark interest rate.展开更多
文摘Different single-factor models are used to estimate the term structure of Hong Kong Inter-Bank Offered Rates （HIBOR）. These models use stochastic differential equations which effectively reflect market characteristics of short- and long-term interest rates, such as capability of mean reversion and interest rate level fluctuation. For the period from 2005 to early 2007, the economy of Hong Kong had been relatively stable with pretty low volatilities in interest rate. However, starting from 2008 to beginning of 2012, the Hong Kong and the world economies had been steering from relatively stable to fluctuations, the 2008 financial tsunami initiated by the U,S. had been causing financial instability globally. With the U.S： government taking quantitative easing monetary policy, U.S. interest rates fluctuated and submerged rapidly. Volatility of HIBOR was extremely sensitive to fluctuation of U.S. interest rates, since Hong Kong dollar exchange rate has been pegged with U.S. dollar. In short, during the period of early 2008 to early 2012, volatility of short-term interest rate was extremely sensitive. Obviously, the term structure of interest rate for these two periods had made major shift, combining the two periods would lead to unfavorable econometric results.
文摘This study investigated the impact of China’s monetary policy on both the money market and stock markets,assuming that non-policy variables would not respond contemporaneously to changes in policy variables.Monetary policy adjustments are swiftly observed in money markets and gradually extend to the stock market.The study examined the effects of monetary policy shocks using three primary instruments:interest rate policy,reserve requirement ratio,and open market operations.Monthly data from 2007 to 2013 were analyzed using vector error correction(VEC)models.The findings suggest a likely presence of long-lasting and stable relationships among monetary policy,the money market,and stock markets.This research holds practical implications for Chinese policymakers,particularly in managing the challenges associated with fluctuation risks linked to high foreign exchange reserves,aiming to achieve autonomy in monetary policy and formulate effective monetary strategies to stimulate economic growth.
文摘This paper examines the roadmap of interest rate liberalisation in China,including the current dual-track interest rate system and the future benchmark rate system.It provides a theoretical foundation for China to develop its own benchmark interest rate.A vector autoregression model is estimated to investigate the effectiveness of Chinese market interest rates,Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate(SHIBOR),and repo rates against different factors such as market size,volatility,transmission channels of monetary policy,and term structures of interest rates.The result shows that SHIBOR affects both the market and the economy.As SHIBOR promptly reflects the changes in currency markets,we argue that it has the potential to become China’s benchmark interest rate.
