A detailed rock density model of the Hong Kong territories

We used the geological map and published rock density measurements to compile the digital rock density model for the Hong Kong territories.We then estimated the average density for the whole territory.According to our result,the rock density values in Hong Kong vary from 2101 to 2681 kg·m^(-3).These density values are typically smaller than the average density of 2670 kg·m^(-3),often adopted to represent the average density of the upper continental crust in physical geodesy and gravimetric geophysics applications.This finding reflects that the geological configuration in Hong Kong is mainly formed by light volcanic formations and lava flows with overlying sedimentary deposits at many locations,while the percentage of heavier metamorphic rocks is very low(less than 1%).This product will improve the accuracy of a detailed geoid model and orthometric heights.

Mesoscale meteorological modelling for Hong Kong-application of the MC2 model

This paper describes the set up and application of a non hydrostatic Canadian meteorological numerical model (MC2) for mesoscale simulations of wind field and other meteorological parameters over the complex terrain of Hong Kong. Results of the simulations of one case are presented and compared with the results of radiosonde and aircraft measurements. The model is proved capable of predicting high resolution, three dimensional fields of wind and other meteorological parameters within the Hong Kong territory, using reasonable computer time and memory resources.

A Strategy and Model of Change for SMEs in the Hong Kong Manufacturing Industry

The re-establishment of the Hong Kong manufacturin g industry as a local pillar of economy is vital in the restructuring of the e conomy in Hong Kong. The SMEs should play a key role in such a process. It requi res major changes to take place in the operation of the enterprises in order to enhance their competitiveness and therefore the chance of success in the restruc turing process. It is suggested that the strategy of going for high value-added products and related services together with the practice of "focused factory" s hould be adopted by the SMEs in the industry. Effective change management by the top managers and owners in the SMEs is an underpinning element for the success. Basing upon the characteristics of the SMEs in the industry, a model of change is proposed. The roles that should be played by the top management and owners in the industry are suggested and discussed. It is believe that the proposal and s uggestions made would help the industry to effectively manage the changes that a re necessary for the industry to shape the competitiveness of the industry in th e world arena in future.

Modelling the Term Structure of Hong Kong Inter-Bank Offered Rates （HIBOR）

Different single-factor models are used to estimate the term structure of Hong Kong Inter-Bank Offered Rates （HIBOR）. These models use stochastic differential equations which effectively reflect market characteristics of short- and long-term interest rates, such as capability of mean reversion and interest rate level fluctuation. For the period from 2005 to early 2007, the economy of Hong Kong had been relatively stable with pretty low volatilities in interest rate. However, starting from 2008 to beginning of 2012, the Hong Kong and the world economies had been steering from relatively stable to fluctuations, the 2008 financial tsunami initiated by the U,S. had been causing financial instability globally. With the U.S： government taking quantitative easing monetary policy, U.S. interest rates fluctuated and submerged rapidly. Volatility of HIBOR was extremely sensitive to fluctuation of U.S. interest rates, since Hong Kong dollar exchange rate has been pegged with U.S. dollar. In short, during the period of early 2008 to early 2012, volatility of short-term interest rate was extremely sensitive. Obviously, the term structure of interest rate for these two periods had made major shift, combining the two periods would lead to unfavorable econometric results.

Present Situation and Thinking of the Evaluation and Management of Biomedical Projects in Shenzhen Industrial Park of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Cooperation Zone

Objective To put forward some suggestions for the improvement of the evaluation system of Shenzhen Industrial Park of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Innovation Cooperation Zone by studying the scientific research project evaluation and management system of Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development(AMED).Methods Through literature review,lessons were drawn from the review and management policies and methods of biomedical projects implemented by Japan AMED.Then some reference was provided to the review and management of the projects in Shenzhen Industrial Park.Results and Conclusion A basic review framework has been set up in Shenzhen Industrial Park,which consists of scientific research management institution of Shenzhen Industrial Park,Third-Party Review Institution and Science Committee.However,there are three problems in this system:unclear selection criteria of review experts,insufficient supervision and lack of project evaluation standards.These problems can be solved by establishing an expert think tank,setting up graded project supervisors to have the dynamic monitoring,and developing a general evaluation scale for evaluating scientific research projects in Shenzhen Industrial Park.

花岗岩Kong-Fang流体弹塑性损伤材料模型参数研究

岩石类材料的动态力学模型的建立及相应模型参数的确定,对岩石动态力学性能研究及相关仿真计算具有重要意义。以山东五莲地区花岗岩为例,基于Kong-Fang流体弹塑性损伤材料模型(KF模型),通过准静态单轴压缩、劈裂、常规三轴实验及动态分离式霍普金森杆压缩(split Hopkinson pressure bar,SHPB)实验对模型中的强度参数进行了确定,并利用基于分离式霍普金森杆的巴西圆盘(split Hopkinson pressure bar-Brazilian disk,SHPB-BD)实验对应变率相关参数的有效性进行了验证;同时,根据平板撞击实验结果对模型中的状态方程参数进行了拟合。利用实验获得的材料参数值,采用KF模型对花岗岩侵彻实验进行数值模拟,计算得到的弹体侵彻深度及成坑尺寸与实际实验结果误差均小于15%,验证了材料模型及参数值的适用性。

Formation conditions and enrichment model of retained petroleum in lacustrine shale: A case study of the Paleogene in Huanghua depression, Bohai Bay Basin, China

Compared with marine facies shale strata,lacustrine shale strata are more complicated in geological conditions,and thus more difficult to explore and develop.To realize economic exploration and development of lacustrine shale oil,the geological regularities of accumulation and high yield of retained movable petroleum in shale should be understood first.In this work,taking the shale strata of Kong 2 Member and Sha 3 Member in the Paleogene of Huanghua depression in the Bohai Bay Basin as examples,based on the previous joint analysis results of over ten thousand core samples and the latest oil testing,production test and geochemical data of more than 30 horizontal wells,accumulation conditions and models of retained movable petroleum in lacustrine shale were studied comprehensively.The study shows that at moderate organic matter abundance(with TOC from 2%to 4%),shale strata have the best match between oil content and brittleness,and thus are rich in oil and good in fracability.Moderate ancient lake basin size and moderate sediment supply intensity are the internal factors leading to best coupling of organic matter abundance and brittle mineral content in the shale formation.Moderate thermal evolution maturity of Ro of 0.7%–1.0%(at burial depth of 3200 to 4300 m)is the interval where oil generation from thermal evolution and oil adsorption by kerogen in shale layers match best,and retained movable petroleum is high in proportion.Moderate diagenetic evolution stage(3200 to 4300 m in the middle diagenetic stage A)is conducive to the formation of a large number of dissolved pores and organic matter pores,which provide storage space for shale oil enrichment.Moderate development degree of natural fractures(without damaging the shale oil roof and floor sealing conditions)is conducive to the storage,seepage and preservation of shale oil.The research results have overthrown the general understanding that high organic matter abundance,high maturity,and high development degree of natural fractures are conducive to shale oil enrichment,and have guided the comprehensive evaluation of shale oil and gas sweet spots and well deployment in the second member of the Kongdian Formation in the Cangdong sag and the Shahejie Formation in the Qikou sag.Industrial development of the shale oil in Kong 2 Member of the Cangdong sag has made major breakthrough,and important signs of shale oil have been found in Sha 3 Member of the Qikou sag,demonstrating huge exploration potential of lacustrine shale oil.

Characteristics of Suspended Particulate Matter and the Coastal Turbidity Maximum Areas of the Mekong River

This paper presents the results of application of a 3D （three-dimensional） numerical model to study on MTZ （maximum turbidity zone） in the coastal zone of Mekong River Delta. In this study, a 3D system model with combination of hydrodynamics--wave and suspended sediment transport was set up and validated with measured data in the study area. Based on calculated scenarios for the flood and the dry season, the results have shown appearance of MTZs in the coastal zone of Mekong River with suspended sediment concentration prevalent of 0.04-0.07 kg·m^3 （the dry season） and 0.05-0.1kg·m^3 （the flood season）. The position and MTZs scale change with the interaction between fresh water and tidal oscillations. The MTZ occur more in the dry seasons compared to the wet season. The MTZs are prevalent located far away from estuaries about in 12-22 km （in the dry season）, and 5-15 km in the flood season.

粤港澳大湾区绿色创新效率时空演化与影响因素研究

基于Super-SBM模型对2011—2020年粤港澳大湾区11个城市绿色创新效率进行测算,并运用核密度估计模型、莫兰指数以及冷热点法分析粤港澳大湾区绿色创新效率的时空演化特征,在此基础上采用空间杜宾模型(SDM)探究粤港澳大湾区绿色创新效率的影响因素。研究表明:研究时间区间,粤港澳大湾区绿色创新效率总体处于较高水平,且呈波动上升趋势;粤港澳大湾区绿色创新效率具有显著的空间非均衡性,呈现“东南高、西北低”的空间分异格局,且该格局有加剧趋势,同时空间相关性于2020年由正转负;政府支持、教育水平以及经济水平对粤港澳大湾区绿色创新效率具有显著的促进作用,教育水平对邻近地区的绿色创新效率具有正向溢出效应,而政府支持对邻近地区效率值具有负向溢出效应。

粤港澳大湾区“四链”融合发展评价探索性研究:基于耦合协调度与灰色关联度的分析

面对当前要素驱动向创新驱动转型的现实发展需求,粤港澳大湾区已初步构筑起创新链、产业链、资金链、人才链“四链”深度融合的基础生态,但融合的状态、水平和层次都存在可以优化提升的空间。文章采用耦合协调度与灰色关联度对粤港澳大湾区“四链”融合发展水平进行实证分析,研究发现:“创新—产业—资金—人才”四个子链已逐渐从低水平均衡向高水平均衡过渡,从极度不协调发展向高度协调状态过渡发展。“创新链—产业链”子系统耦合对整体“四链”融合水平贡献度最高。

粤港澳大湾区四大合作平台区域治理模式的比较研究

推进重大合作平台建设是粤港澳大湾区落实“一点两地”新定位,进一步全面深化改革、稳步扩大制度型开放的重要依托,有利于“以点带面”引领带动粤港澳全面深化合作。从实践来看,四个重大合作平台在建设发展过程中逐步形成了图景各异的区域治理模式:横琴的“合作政府”治理模式、前海的“法定机构”治理模式、南沙的“属地管理”治理模式以及河套的“园区合作”治理模式。比较四大合作平台区域治理模式的样态可以发现,纵向、横向、斜向和网络状的府际关系对于形塑多样化的区域治理权力结构产生了不同的作用。“自上而下”是四大合作平台构建区域治理权力结构的共同路径;府际权力配置是四大合作平台构建区域治理权力结构的差异化条件。区位属性、服务对象、战略定位、利益配置催生了不同的区域治理模式。

基于ISM模型的邮轮航线要素分析及优化研究

在全球经济增长乏力的情况下,我国邮轮产业方兴未艾,围绕着南海开发,中国—东盟合作前景一片广阔。本文以粤港澳大湾区为邮轮母港出发地,以邮轮航线优化要素为影响因子,建立要素解释结构模型,分析邮轮航线要素对优化方案的重要性程度,以及各个要素之间的影响关系。

资本市场开放与管理层语调操纵

资本市场开放如何促进上市公司高质量发展是当前金融改革面临的重大课题,而频发的管理层语调操纵现象则凸显了公司治理存在的“痛点”和“堵点”。本文以2010—2020年的沪市A股上市公司为样本,基于PSM-DID模型考察了“沪港通”互联互通机制对管理层语调操纵的影响。研究发现,“沪港通”机制的实施能有效抑制管理层语调操纵行为,其治理功效主要是通过缓解公司融资约束和提高公司透明度的途径得以发挥,且上述治理作用在机构投资者治理水平较高、非国有企业、高管过度自信程度较低以及领导权力分离的样本中更为显著。进一步研究表明,行业竞争强度弱化了资本市场开放对管理层语调操纵的抑制效应,而分析师跟踪会强化其治理效果。经济后果检验发现,“沪港通”机制通过约束管理层语调操纵降低了企业破产风险,并提升了企业财务绩效水平。本研究从管理层语调操纵视角证实了资本市场开放具有治理溢出效应,也为促进上市公司提高文本信息披露质量提供了经验证据。

面向多区域防洪的珠江流域水库群协同调度模型研究

珠江流域洪水组成与遭遇复杂多变,防洪保护对象多而分散,且兼顾供水、生态、发电、航运、库区安全等多种任务,水库群防洪调度面临多区域、多目标协同调度技术难题。以位于西江、北江、东江上的水库为研究对象,基于流域防洪格局和防洪任务阐明了水库群多区域协同防洪的调度节点和角色定位,提出了嵌套式多维属性的模型功能结构,构建了珠江流域水库群多区域协同防洪调度模型。以流域防洪极为不利的2005年6月中下游型大洪水为例进行流域水库群防洪调度模型研究,结果表明,通过龙滩水库加大拦蓄,岩滩水库、百色水库、西津水库、飞来峡水库等西江、北江水库群协同调度,可将西江梧州站洪峰流量削减至安全泄量50 400 m^(3)/s以下,较原设计调度方案多削减3 200 m^(3)/s,将三角洲思贤滘(马口+三水)断面洪峰削减至62 700 m^(3)/s,较原设计调度方案多削减4 500 m^(3)/s,有效保障了粤港澳大湾区城市的防洪安全。

粤港澳大湾区规划能否提高企业全要素生产率?--来自中国制造业上市公司的证据

近年来,通过城市群规划重构区域发展格局,释放企业发展新动能,已成为国内外驱动经济增长的重要引擎。文章基于2015—2021年中国制造业上市公司数据,以粤港澳大湾区规划作为准自然实验,使用双重差分法考察大湾区城市群规划对企业全要素生产率(TFP)的影响。研究发现:(1)大湾区规划显著提高了区域内企业全要素生产率,在进行了一系列稳健性检验后,结论依然成立。(2)相比之下,大湾区规划更大程度提升了外资及其他企业、中心城市企业和传统制造企业的全要素生产率。(3)从机制分析来看,大湾区规划主要通过缓解融资约束和提高人力资本集聚来促进企业提高全要素生产率。文章丰富了区域政策效应的研究,为制定区域发展战略和促进企业全要素生产率提供参考。

治理模式演进下香港地区历史建筑的保育研究

对治理模式进行跟踪研究是当前中国城市提高历史建筑保育水平的重要路径。香港地区对历史建筑保育治理模式的转型,推动了保育方式的持续迭代,提供了宝贵的剖析范本。文章以历史建筑保育历程为线索,运用阶段分期、模式归类、效果评价等方法,总结出三种保育治理模式,并选取典型实践进行分析。研究发现,香港特区政府于2008年出台的“活化历史建筑伙伴计划”引入的非营利组织(NPO)通过方案竞标和社群受益的结合提案、专家审议和政府投资的方式,较好地改善了政府、开发商协作模式中历史建筑过度商品化问题,并有效地平衡了政府、社区参与模式中各方利益分化问题。文章对保育治理模式的演进路径进行了梳理,希望为中国其他城市探索适合自身环境的历史建筑保育治理模式提供借鉴、助益。

考虑群体行为异质性的深港跨界口岸交通需求模型

口岸跨界交通是推动对外交流合作、经贸往来的重要支撑,精细化的跨界口岸交通需求分析和预测有助于提升口岸规划和治理水平、完善口岸基础设施服务质量。以深圳和香港地区之间的跨界客流为例,针对多元跨界群体在政策敏感性、目的地选择偏好、口岸选择偏好等方面的异质性,提出总量预测、客流分布、口岸选择“三阶段”跨界口岸交通需求模型框架。在方法上,以引力模型和离散选择模型为基础,充分考虑各类基础数据的现实局限性进行合理建模,使其兼具方法论行为基础和可用性。该模型框架从跨界群体出行行为异质性的角度为跨界口岸交通模型提供新视角,并为其他重大对外基础设施的交通需求建模提供参考。

融合多源数据的粤港澳大湾区生态系统健康影响机制研究

从人地耦合视角出发,基于“活力—组织力—恢复力—贡献力”(VORS)模型,综合评价2000—2020年粤港澳大湾区生态系统健康状况。融合人口密度、POI等多源数据,利用最优参数的地理探测器揭示大湾区生态系统健康影响因素的作用机制。结果表明:(1)2000—2020年大湾区平均生态系统健康指数由0.279下降到0.255,湾区中部生态系统健康恶化加剧。(2)生态系统健康的空间集聚特征明显,热点区集中分布在北部肇庆、惠州市;冷点区集中分布在佛山、广州市,且城市交界处的生态系统健康指数变化最为剧烈。(3)人口密度成为影响大湾区生态系统健康的主导因子,其与各类城市设施用地交互作用下对生态系统健康的扰动最为剧烈。公共设施用地、工业设施用地、商业设施用地以及居住用地成为影响大湾区生态系统健康的关键因子,因其对原始自然环境和生态组分的破坏,加剧了生态系统健康的恶化。

基于SD模型的重大工程项目成功要素仿真研究

为实现重大工程项目的安全运行和可持续发展,运用系统动力学对重大工程项目成功要素进行仿真研究。首先,识别重大工程项目成功要素,构建其指标体系;其次,分析各成功要素间的作用关系,构建重大工程项目成功要素SD模型;最后,以港珠澳大桥为例,运用Vensim软件进行模拟仿真,并对12个常量型成功要素进行敏感性分析。结果表明:增加对认知情感、高管领导、行为关系、资源整合和组织学习的投入和管控,促进重大工程项目成功;对重大工程项目成功影响显著的要素为重大工程项目管理经验、财务冗余度、数字科技的应用和行为惯性。该研究拓展了重大工程项目成功要素研究,为促进重大工程项目成功提供理论依据。

基于史密斯模型的“港澳药械通”政策有效执行影响因素研究

结合粤港澳大湾区“港澳药械通”政策导向和政策执行成效,运用史密斯政策执行过程模型,从理想化政策、执行机构、目标群体和政策执行环境4个方面,对“港澳药械通”政策的执行过程进行研究分析,得出该政策存在政策本身限制、执行机构执行力不足、目标群体意愿低、政策环境不利于发展等问题。提出了在后续政策优化中完善配套政策、压实各主体责任、提升信息化水平、加强真实世界研究等建议,以保障港澳药械安全有效可控,推动“港澳药械通”政策可持续发展,助力健康湾区建设。