长三角城市群经济韧性测度与分析——基于Shift-Share的经济韧性分解

以长三角城市群27个城市为研究对象,测度2008—2010年抵抗期和2010—2019年恢复期城市群经济韧性水平,并进一步运用Shift-Share分解方法探索长三角城市群经济韧性内在影响机制。研究显示:抵抗期和恢复期中长三角城市群经济韧性均值分别为0.309和0.301,均强于全国层面经济韧性水平;Shift-Share分解后发现竞争力分量对各城市经济韧性水平提升起到决定性作用,抵抗期阶段主要由第二、三产业共同作用影响经济韧性水平;恢复期阶段则以第二产业竞争力为主导力量,同时以第三产业竞争力作为辅助力量。通过实证探究长三角城市群经济一体化发展的规律和特点,为增强中国经济韧性提出相关建议,助力中国经济高质量发展。

Industrial Structure and Competitive Strength of 31 Provincial Districts——A GIS-based Dynamic Shift-Share Analysis

By using the dynamic shift-share analysis, the industrial structure and competitive strength of 31 provincial districts except Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao are studied by taking the GDP of the three industries as the research entrance and the whole nation as the reference district. The industrial structure and competitive strength of each provincial district is measured. Through the analysis of pertinence, the correlation degree of industrial structure and industrial competitive strength to economic growth is analyzed. The results show that the industrial competitive strength is closely related to the economic growth of the 31 provincial districts, but the contribution made by the industrial structure to economic growth is insufficient and the effect of industrial structure does not match with that of industrial competitive strength. According to industrial competitiveness and industrial structure effect, 31 provincial districts of the whole nation are divided into 4 types and the relevant countermeasures of the four types are put forward.

The Fishery Industrial Structure in China Based on the Application of Shift-Share Analysis

Taking sixteen main fishery production regions as the study objects,this paper is to examine the fishery industrial structure and investigate the correlation between the economic growth of the fishery industry and the fishery industrial structure during the period 1997-2013 by the shift-share analysis. The study results show that( i) four types of regional industrial structure exist in the fishery industry in China;( ii)all the three sectors-fishing production,fish processing( manufacturing) and fish marketing( distribution),have emerged with large potential for promoting the national fishery industry growth,especially for the latter two;( iii) the factors of industry-mix and competitive position have significantly different impacts on the growth of fishery industry in different main fishery production regions. This study is one of the comprehensive studies on the status of regional fishery industrial structure,and the competitiveness of regional fishery industry in China.

Industrial Structure Evolution and Economic Growth in Dingxi City Based on Shift-Share Method and Location Quotient Analysis

According to the statistical data in the years 2004-2008, both Shift-Share Analysis and Location Quotient Analysis are used to compare the economic development status of counties (districts) in Dingxi City in the years 2004 and 2008. Advantages and disadvantages of industrial structure and competitiveness are analyzed, as well as the impacts of existing industrial structure on economic growth. Development direction and development focus of primary, secondary and tertiary industries are found out. Countermeasures for accelerating the economic development of counties (districts) in Dingxi City are put forward, such as increasing the inputs in characteristic agriculture, promoting the development of primary industry, speeding up the construction of large and medium industrial enterprises, enhancing the development of secondary industry, strengthening comprehensive environmental improvement in tourist area, and actively developing tertiary industry.

上海三次产业结构变迁的经济增长效应分析——基于Shift-Share分析方法

借助Shift-Share方法分解1978-2012年上海经济增长的劳动生产率变动得出:整体经济和第三产业仅存在"结构奖赏"效应,但贡献度有限;第一和第二产业仅存在"结构惩罚"效应;整体经济和三次产业结构转换的经济增长效应已日渐缩小。但这并不表明市场化改革红利已消失,因为生产要素的"配置效率落差"和"反效率配置"现象还将长期存在,即上海还存在推进市场化改革来提升生产效率的潜力。

基于Shift-share方法的安徽省产业发展分析

Shift-share方法在国外是一种区域经济和产业结构分析中被广泛使用的方法,具有较强的综合性和动态性。本文以1998至2002年数据为基础,运用偏离份额技术,对安徽省三次产业结构以及安徽省所辖地级市产业结构的现状和竞争能力进行分析。结果表明,安徽省三次产业发展速度基本上和全国发展速度持平,第三产业总体发展情况良好并且对经济的贡献最大,但是大多数城市第二产业竞争力较弱,处于衰退状态,严重影响了安徽省的经济发展。

基于偏离-份额分析法的陕西林下经济优势产业选择分析

以2018—2021年的陕西省林下经济产业为研究对象,采取偏离-份额分析法对其进行分析,结果表明:陕西省林下经济产业除陆生野生动物繁育与利用业以外,其他产业均为增长型产业。其中水果、坚果、含油果和香料作物种植与采集、食品药材、食品种植、花卉及其他观赏植物种植、非木质林产品加工制造业基础好,区位竞争优势较大,未来发展潜力大,可作为优势产业首选对象。茶及其他饮料作物的种植与采集、林产品采集、林业旅游与休闲服务、林业生态服务和林业生产服务产业基础差,且不具备明显的区位竞争和产业优势,但具有明显的结构优势,可作为第二发展对象,同时对林下经济优势产业提出发展建议。

基于偏离-份额分析法的林业“双化”路径研究

“产业生态化和生态产业化”实质是通过提高产业生态效率推动产业结构优化升级.广西作为林业大省具有发展林业的优越条件,研究分析林业产业结构优化对推动绿水青山向金山银山转化具有重要意义.该文运用偏离-份额分析法和主成分分析法,分析广西林业产业结构及构成要素.结果表明:近20年来广西林业产业结构已呈现出“二、三、一”模式取代原来的“二、一、三”模式,开始从以数量扩张为主转化为以素质提高为主;形成了木材加工和木竹藤棕苇制品制造、经济林产品种植与采集、林业旅游与休闲服务等优势要素,但林木育种和育苗、林业专业技术服务和林业生态服务等产业要素仍然处于劣势,显示出该区构成要素发展极不均衡.据此,提出以下建议:突出发展优势要素,构建高质量林业产业结构;合理培育潜力产业,实施生态化改造;实行科技创新,全方位推动林业生态化发展.

Quantitative Analysis of Contribution of Industrial Structure to Economic Growth in Jiangsu Province

The industrial structure in Jiangsu Province realizes the transformation from "secondary industry-primary industry-tertiary industry" to "tertiary industry-secondary industry-primary industry". However, the effectiveness of this model of industry-dominate industrial structure and the role of industrial structure pattern in promoting regional economic growth are yet to be researched. By using shift-share analysis method, we judge the importance of factors of industrial structure in regional economic growth of Jiangsu Province, and point out that factors of industrial structure are not the dominant forces in economic growth of Jiangsu Province; among the contributions of three industries to economic growth of Jiangsu Province, the contribution of the primary industry is greatest, followed by the contribution of secondary industry and the contribution of tertiary industry successively; real estate industry makes the greatest contribution to economic growth of Jiangsu Province; financial industry and construction industry make relatively small contributions; the potential of industry needs to be further developed. In the process of economic development of Jiangsu Province, the industrial structure is yet to be further optimized so as to give play to the role of industry in promoting the development of Jiangsu Province.

Analysis on Features of Agricultural Structure Change and Agricultural Competitiveness in Hubei Province

The output data of crop farming,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery in the Hubei Statistical Yearbook-2009 is used to analyze the features of agricultural structure change in Hubei Province since 1983;according to the relevant data in Hubei Statistical Yearbook and China Statistical Yearbook in 2005 and 2009,and adopting the shift-share analysis model,the difference in agricultural economic growth between Hubei and other provinces in Central China as well as the difference among the 17 regions of Hubei Province during 2004-2008 are analyzed.Results show that,the agriculture in Hubei Province shows significant overall advantages in central China and has stronger competitiveness,but its crop farming and fishery structure are not quite reasonable,and the competitive advantages of its fishery and agricultural services still need to be strengthened;the agricultural structure within Hubei Province sees an obvious regional differences,viewed from the total deviation,Huanggang,Jingmen and Yichang enjoy competitive edge in the whole province,from the viewpoint of industrial sectors,Huanggang is the most competitive in its planting,forestry and animal husbandry,while Jingmen is the strongest in fishery and Xiangfan has a competitive edge over others in its agricultural services.Based on those results above,it is proposed that Hubei Province should fully recognize its natural conditions,resources endowment and current differences in the economic status of each places,work out measures to suit local conditions,take full use of its advantages,extend its production chain and go on the development road with regional characteristics.

资源型城市产业结构演变及其影响因素--以河南省为例

运用动态偏离-份额分析法、产业结构熵分析2000—2020年河南省资源型城市产业发展水平及产业结构演变趋势,借助面板数据回归模型探索其影响因素。研究表明:研究区产业结构呈专业化发展;第二产业结构素质较优,对经济发展贡献较大;第三产业竞争力素质较优,对经济发展促进作用明显;消费水平和社会投资促进产业结构多样化;利用外资水平、科技创新和科教水平等促进产业结构专业化。最后,为推进区域转型发展进程提出建议。

动态偏离-份额分析法在区域经济中的应用

作者在传统静态的偏离-份额分析法的基础上,引入动态化思想,把研究期的时间纬度进行了拓展,不仅揭示了各分量因素对增长总量的贡献,而且还展现了各分量因素在不同时间发展变化程度的差异。对西部12省市的应用分析表明动态偏离-份额分析法既能揭示不同工业行业部门的变化特征,又能量化分析不同年份各工业行业的竞争力和贡献率,因此有助于更客观地分析工业行业结构的优劣,正确评价各工业行业的竞争力强弱,从而为区域工业结构调整提出科学的依据和方向。

偏离-份额分析法空间模型及其应用

传统的偏离-份额分析模型没有考虑区域之间的空间交互作用,为此国外出现了空间拓展模型的探索、论证与应用,然而目前国内仍主要停留在对传统模型的应用。本文介绍了如何构建空间权重矩阵来表示区域间的空间相互作用,并介绍了国外较成熟的偏离-份额分析空间模型,并以江苏为例应用偏离-份额分析传统模型和空间模型进行了对比分析。结果表明,江苏省第二、三产业在全国具有较强的竞争力,经济总量及各产业的增长中,竞争力因素比产业结构因素贡献更大;但相对周边邻近省份江苏各产业并没有表现出竞争优势;邻近省份对江苏经济增长产生了较大的正面影响,其中浙江影响最大,但江苏没有能够充分利用这种影响,因此带来了一定的理论经济损失。

基于动态偏离-份额和灰色关联分析的陕西入境旅游产业结构与竞争力分析

综合使用动态-偏离份额和灰色关联分析法,对陕西省2000-2007年入境旅游产业结构和竞争力进行了研究,并且分析了入境旅游产业各部门收入与入境旅游总收入之间的关联性。结果显示:考察期内陕西省入境旅游产业及其各部门的发展水平低于全国平均水平。其中,需求弹性较大的娱乐和游览部门与旅游外汇收入的关联度较低,所占比重较小,前者结构效益低下且缺乏竞争力,后者仅竞争力有一定优势;商品部门关联度较大却缺乏竞争优势;交通、住宿和餐饮部门的旅游外汇收入关联度较大,但都只有弱竞争力,其中交通部门结构效益最差。

动态偏离-份额分析空间模型及湖北产业竞争力分析

传统动态偏离-份额分析只简单分析国家对研究区域发展的影响，认为研究区域和该国内的其他区域是孤立的。动态偏离-份额分析空间模型在传统动态偏离-份额分析模型的基础上，引入了区域与邻近区域之间存在空间相互作用的思想，同时考虑国家、邻近区域对研究区域的综合作用。对动态偏离-份额分析空间模型进行介绍，将其应用到湖北2001～2008年各产业经济增长分析中，对比偏离-份额分析传统模型和空间模型结果中的竞争偏离分量，进而提出提高湖北产业竞争力的建议。

基于偏离-份额分析法的安徽省林业优势产业的选择研究

安徽省属于林业比重较大的省份,是我国南方集体林区的重点省份之一,林业在安徽经济发展过程中发挥了重要作用。文章以安徽省林业产业为研究对象,采用偏离-份额分析的方法,研究林业产业结构的特点,探索林业产业发展的潜力,并对其优势产业进行了选择研究,为优势产业的发展指明了方向。计算分析表明:安徽省应以林业旅游与休闲服务,非木质林产品加工制造业,陆生野生动物繁育与利用,林产化学产品制造四个产业作为优势产业,并进一步强化森林资源的开发与利用,以此推动省域林业经济的快速发展。

中国入境旅游目的地竞争份额-偏移方法分析

从旅游空间竞争视角,以1990-2008年中国入境旅游统计数据为样本,运用份额-偏移模型分析入境旅游目的地空间竞争及增长类型。结果显示,九大旅游带之间和旅游带内部的竞争均十分激烈,且旅游带之间的竞争远大于旅游带内部的竞争;吴越文化江南水乡风光等4个旅游带具有较强的竞争优势,而岭南文化南亚热带-热带风光、京华古今风貌等5个旅游带则处于竞争劣势;浙江、江苏表现为较大的正偏移增长,具有较强的竞争力,而广东、北京为较大的负偏移增长,表明入境旅游竞争力呈现下降趋势。

西部地区产业结构演进与经济增长的偏离-份额分析

文章运用偏离—份额分析方法,对西部大开发前后十年①(1990-2009年)西部地区十二省、区、市产业结构变迁对区域经济增长的总体效应及地域差异进行评价。通过对比分析发现,随着西部大开发战略的实施,西部地区大部分省市进入产业结构调整优化时期,各省市表现有所不同。总体而言,西部地区产业份额和产业竞争力呈分离态势,增长型产业比重不大,产业竞争力仍有待进一步提高。基于此,结合西部地区实情,提出简要对策建议。

基于偏离-份额分析法的聊城市产业结构分析

采用偏离-份额分析法,以山东省为参照系,对2000～2009年聊城市的产业结构及其经济增长进行了定量分析,并且将2000～2004年与2005～2009年2个时间段之间的3个分量进行比较,分析了聊城市产业结构与竞争力的变化趋势,结合聊城市近几年的产业结构现状分析其存在的问题,为聊城市产业结构调整和优化提出建议。

基于偏离-份额分析法的滇、桂、黔工业竞争力分析

运用偏离-份额分析法对云南、广西和贵州三省区的工业进行比较分析发现,整体而言,广西具有相对的优势,云南位于广西和贵州两省之间,贵州工业竞争力较差。分行业分析发现,各省区工业的不同行业的竞争力不同,具有各自的特点。因此,作为西南地区重要的区域经济体,三省区需明晰自身优势,错位竞争,实现互补发展,推动中国西部地区竞争力的进一步提升。