欧盟保险业Solvency Ⅱ项目最新进展及对我国的启示

欧盟保险业Solvency Ⅱ项目计划通过设计风险导向型监管制度,对保险公司偿付能力进行全方位的动态监管,在全球范围内引起了广泛关注。跟踪Solvency Ⅱ的最新进展,从"三支柱"视角介绍《Solvency Ⅱ法令框架草案》的主要内容,总结第三次定量影响研究(QIS3)的主要成果,对当前的最新进展和争议焦点进行追踪,以期对中国保险公司的偿付能力监管有所启示。

欧盟偿付能力(Solvency)Ⅱ改革综述及其借鉴意义

欧盟偿付能力(Solvency)Ⅱ(偿付能力二号)改革从传统的管理系统到以风险为导向型的管理系统,已经在全球范围内引起了关注。在后金融危机时代,它的实施很可能成为保险业防范金融危机的最好策略。本文根据欧盟Solvency Ⅱ的最新进展,揭示其从开始计划实施到现在不断改革中所面临的重重挑战,同时总结其运行机制及存在的问题,分析其对我国保险业改革的借鉴意义。

欧盟Solvency Ⅱ框架综述及相关问题思考

随着我国第二代保险业偿付能力体系建设工作的展开,偿付能力的研究也逐渐被重视起来。欧盟Solvency Ⅱ经过长时间的研究与发展,已经形成了一套比较成熟的三支柱监管体系,灵活的监管方式、前瞻性的监管思维、全面的监管角度使其成为我国建设偿付能力体系的重要参考。因此,加强对于Solvency Ⅱ的认识与研究,对于完善我国偿付能力监管有非常重要的意义。

Study on the model of an insurer's solvency ratio in Markov-modulated Brownian markets

In this paper the insurer＇s solvency ratio model with or without jump diffusion process in the presence of financial distress cost is constructed, where an insurer＇s solvency ratio is characterized by a Markov-modulated dynamics. By Girsanov＇s theorem and the option pricing formula, the expected present value of shareholders＇ terminal payoff is provided.

构建保险监管新体系——浅谈欧盟Solvency Ⅱ草案

保险公司偿付能力作为保险监管的重要内容已被世界的保险业所重视,它对于一个保险企业的发展至关重要。但是各不同地区对保险公司偿付能力的监管存在很多差异,缺乏统一的标准。SolvencyII体系正是致力于在欧盟范围内统一确定一个类似巴塞尔协议——银行偿付能力监管的总体标准。同时SolvencyII引入了一些先进的风险管理方法,将风险管理的理念嵌入到整个公司的管理体系中去。本文分析了新颁布的SolvencyII草案对保险公司的影响,并和我国现有偿付能力管理体制做了相应比较,并提出一些建议。

浅谈欧盟Solvency Ⅰ到Solvency Ⅱ对我国的影响

随着整个社会经济的向前发展,以及各项金融产品技术的不断提高,欧盟开始对原有保险偿付能力的监管制度进行了反思和回顾,于此同时也致力于制定新的偿付能力标准的制定,即Solvency Ⅱ。新方案对整个欧盟保险业的影响是深远的,同时,方案的实施对我国保险业监管也给与一些启示。

Loan growth and bank solvency:evidence from the Pakistani banking sector

Background:The dramatic loan growth and changes in the Pakistani banking system in mid-2000s have led to significant research attention on borrowers and lenders.This expansion and diversification in financial sector was driven by structural reforms,political stability and significant economic growth.Against this background,this study investigates the loan growth and risk-taking behavior of the banks during the expansionary periods of lending.Method:This study used dynamic two-step system generalized method of moment’s estimation technique,based on data taken from 32 banks in Pakistan over 2006-2014.Result:Loan growth has a significant effect on bank-specific and macroeconomicspecific variables.Loan growth in the previous year raises non-performing loans and decreases the solvency of banks with a time lag of many years.The driving force behind this phenomenon is weak prudential regulation among competitors,the asymmetric information of the borrowers,and,most importantly,that banks underestimate the risk of lending during credit booms.Conclusion:More regulatory measures are required to ensure a strong financial system when the volume of non-performing loan grows significantly.An increase in the capital requirement policy for rapidly growing banks is also needed because the problem of abnormal loan growth cannot be detected at the current time.At the same time,strong supervision is necessary to avoid the adverse consequences of borrower selection.

Estimating the shareholder's terminal payoff based on insurer's solvency ratio in mixed fractional Brownian market

This paper studies the insurer’s solvency ratio model in a class of mixed fractional Brownian motion(MFBM) market, where the prices of assets follow a Wick-It? stochastic differential equation driven by the MFBM, by the method of the stochastic calculus of the MFBM and the pricing formula of European call option for the MFBM, the explicit formula for the expected present value of shareholders’ terminal payoff is given. The model extends the existing results.

Estimating the Shareholder's Terminal Payoff in Insurer's Solvency Ratio Model under Fractional Market

The insurer's solvency ratio model in a class of fractional Black-Scholes markets is studied. In this market,the price of assets follows a Wick-It stochastic differential equation,which is driven by the fractional Brownian motion. The market coefficients of market model are deterministic functions. By the stochastic calculus of the fractional Brownian motion and the pricing formula of European call option for the fractional Brownian motion,the explicit formula for the expected present value of shareholder's terminal payoff is given. The model extends the existing results.

Research on the Solvency of Tibetan Pharmaceutical Companies in the New Era

Medical care is a livelihood needs,and the solvency directly affects the survival and development of pharmaceutical companies.Therefore,it is important to study the solvency of pharmaceutical companies.This article selects six listed Tibetan pharmaceutical companies as research cases,adopts a comparative analysis method to analyze their solvency,and explores the advantages and disadvantages of the solvency of Tibetan pharmaceutical companies in order to enhance the solvency of Tibetan pharmaceutical companies for reference.

＂Principal Components＂ for the Calculation of the Best Estimate Liability of Future Discretionary Benefits under Solvency II

The core of the presentation that I propose treats about the application of principal component analysis for the estimation of the future earnings of the Segregated Funds. The Segregated Funds are the pools of assets which have been using in the Italian Insurance Market since mid 80＇s for managing the ＂with profit＂ business, also known as business with ＂discretionary participation feature＂ according to IFRS4 since the income attributable to the policyholders is composed by the net realised gains less a fee and by a minimum guarantee, if any. The discretion of the Management of the Entity lays on the decision on whether and when to realise both the financial gains and the financial losses of the underlying investments. This strategy is tied by the need to manage an appropriate ALM, from the rules included in the local legislation as well as by the policy about the solvency margin （for example a minimum solvency ratio to fulfil that is conditional upon the value of income attributed that year）. The fee can not be changed, i.e., is not discretionary, the minimum granted could be fixed on annual basis-sometimes paid on cash recurrently-or could be promised only at expiration or sometimes promised at expiration or in advance only for death and disability. In case of years so adverse that the Entity is not able to avoid earnings too low, sometimes the entity delivers an additional bonus, in order to compensate their policyholders, which is based above a full discretion. Principal components are used in finance as well as in other fields such as genetic. You can see some of these applications in two of the references advised below. The purposes of the technique of principal components are （1） to increase objectivity of results and their verifiability by third parties such as auditors, （2） make speeder the time spent for the analytical calculations （i.e., runs of the actuarial models） and （3） to render the relationship between the asset composition and the their earnings effectively used for the best estimate liabilities through their contribution in forecasting future cash flows.

Analysis of Solvency of A-Share Listed Companies in China’s Real Estate Industry

The real estate industry is a capital-intensive industry and capital has become a particular concern for real estate enterprises.For a long time,China’s real estate enterprises rely on high-leverage development and carry out high-debt and high-risk operations.The solvency of real estate enterprises has been the focus of stakeholders’attention.In August 2020,China’s regulatory authorities introduced new financing regulations for real estate enterprises.They set up“three red lines,”which brought real estate enterprises’solvency into focus once again.This article takes A-share listed companies in China’s real estate industry as an example,analyzes and evaluates its debt solvency,and gives suggestions based on new policies and regulations,hoping to provide specific references to the enterpriser’s manager and external decision-makers.

城市轨道交通企业财务表现能力研究

[目的]为了系统性地把握企业财务状况,提升城市轨道交通企业的经营决策能力,需研究城市轨道交通企业的财务表现能力。[方法]从营业总成本、盈利能力、偿债能力、营运能力和成长能力五个方面,统计分析了我国10座城市的轨道交通企业的营业总成本及人工成本、偿债能力比率、盈利能力比率、营运能力比率和成长能力比率,并基于此研究了企业的财务表现能力。[结果及结论]天津地铁存量PPP(公私合营)项目盘活资金超150亿元,减轻了政府债务负担。其他城市的轨道交通企业的营业总成本和人工成本整体呈上升趋势,建议通过PPP模式来减轻政府财务压力,提高成本效率。北京、成都、武汉、青岛、南京的轨道交通企业的长期偿债能力较弱。针对2021年成都、武汉、南京的轨道交通企业的负债程度偏高问题,建议采取光伏发电、地源热泵、共享车辆基地、设备国产化等措施减少企业成本。对于企业盈利偏低问题,建议通过提供运营服务咨询、运营管理服务等方式增加收入。

市场型环境规制与劳动收入份额——基于绿色信贷政策视角

本文以2012年颁布的《绿色信贷指引》作为研究对象,在理论层面分析了其影响劳动收入份额的作用机制,并基于微观企业数据,运用双重差分法评估该政策对企业劳动收入份额的具体影响。研究发现:(1)绿色信贷政策显著降低了污染企业劳动收入份额,作用渠道主要是加剧企业的资本深化过程,而不是缩减产出规模,同时外部融资约束也会对劳动收入份额产生影响;(2)该政策显著提升企业劳动生产率,并且资本深化过程对劳动生产率也会产生影响;(3)绿色信贷在市场集中度更高以及技术偏向较低的企业中对劳动收入份额的负向影响更大,同时企业更强的偿债能力对劳动收入份额具有正向作用。本文为进一步推进环境规制与劳动收入分配的协同发展提供了重要经验证据。

盈利、融资、主动偿债与房地产业风险——基于上市公司信用利差的面板数据实证分析

以135家上市房地产企业2017年至2021年的财务数据和发行债券的到期收益率为样本,利用时间和个体固定效应模型实证研究了房地产企业信用利差的影响因素。研究结果表明,房地产企业的信用利差受公司盈利能力、融资能力和偿债主动性指标影响;盈利能力、融资能力越强、偿债积极性越高,企业的信用利差越小。杠杆水平和长短期偿债能力直接导致公司债券违约的指标对信用利差的影响不显著;而公司是否违约对信用利差的影响高度显著、影响强度大。

安阳钢铁股份有限公司财务风险及对策

钢铁工业是国民经济的重要基础产业,在社会工业化进程中起着至关重要的作用。但近年来,钢铁行业产能过剩、产品同质化使得我国钢铁市场面临市场供需严重失衡的状况。以安阳钢铁为研究对象,以提升财务竞争力为研究目的,对其财务竞争力进行研究,通过财务报表的各项数据,从盈利能力、营运能力、偿债能力三个方面对其财务竞争力现状进行分析,对存在的问题进行初步解读,提出了应化解产能过剩、优化资本结构、加快存货周转和强化成本管控等提升企业财务竞争力的对策建议。

我国保险业偿付能力监管制度改革研究——基于国际比较的视角

偿付能力监管是现代保险监管的核心内容,世界主要国家和地区都十分重视偿付能力监管。改革开放以来,我国不断探索和完善偿付能力监管制度,逐步形成了具有中国特色的偿付能力监管制度体系。当前,国际保险监管尚未形成统一的监管制度,世界各国偿付能力监管制度也各不相同。本文在全面梳理国内外保险业偿付能力监管制度演变历程的基础上,比较分析了国际上有代表性的保险偿付能力监管制度之间的差异。研究表明,我国保险业偿付能力监管制度立足国情、持续完善并与时俱进,形成了一套具有中国特色和国际可比性的偿付能力制度体系,有力推进了我国保险监管现代化进程,也为国际新兴保险市场国家优化保险监管体系提供了重要借鉴。

关于一种经济增长模型在水利工程经济分析及效益计算中的应用

本文旨在阐明哈罗德-多马经济增长模型在工程经济分析中的应用,而非财务经济分析的全过程。介绍在整个工程项目生命周期过程里的偿债能力的测算,以及它的时间路径以及对应的整个偿债周期里的偿债进度的展现。哈罗德-多马模型作为经济学中的一种经济增长模型,它的核心思想则是规定要满足某些均衡经济条件所需要的时间路径的模型。将偿债的过程通过非线性的表达手段进行量化的标准化度量,将很多模棱两可的偿债过程,进行可能的偿债路径表达,可为工程建设提供一定的经济学论断和经济性论证。

科技型中小企业面临的金融风险与应对

企业的偿债能力是金融风险的重要体现和源头。近年来,中国科技型中小企业蓬勃发展,通过综合分析科技型中小企业面临的金融风险并提出对策,以促进科技型中小企业的健康发展。科技型中小企业面临的金融风险主要是债务风险和流动性风险。此外,基于自身特点,科技型中小企业更容易受到系统性和非系统性风险的冲击。引发科技型中小企业金融风险的因素有宏观经济压力、融资困境、国外的科技封锁、科技型中小企业征信体系不完善及宏观经济政策的挤出效应。要减小这些金融风险、促进科技型中小企业发展,相关部门可以建立地方科技型中小企业投资基金,建立全面覆盖中小企业的征信数据库,为科技型中小企业提供更多融资平台与方案,实施结构性的精准货币政策与财政政策,分类处置科技型中小企业的不良贷款。

公司偿债能力判断规则及其构建

公司偿债能力是影响公司所有权配置的决定性因素,也是调和公司股东和债权人利益冲突的关键指标。但中国《公司法》和《企业破产法》在偿债能力判断上并未遵循一致规则。尽管《公司法》为各种股东报偿规定了约束条件,但是这些约束条件并不以公司偿债能力判断为基准。《企业破产法》确立了资债比较法和实际清偿力判断法两种偿债能力标准,但无法适用于股东报偿纠纷案件。《公司法》与《企业破产法》在偿债能力判断上的脱节应当得到纠正。《公司法》应当引入《企业破产法》的偿债能力判断标准,构建一套兼顾公司持续经营能力和偿债能力,结合资本维持规则和实际清偿力判断法的股东报偿规制模式。