Re-measuring International Short-term Capital Flow into China with Varying Methods

This paper.fi＇rst conducts a systematic review of domestic and foreign scholars＇ approaches to predicting short-term capital flows, then employs a combination of both direct and indirect methods to carry out its analysis. Three kinds of indicators, both specific and general, are applied in both methods. Thorough consideration is given to short-term international capital inflow from trade, other current account items, capital account, and errors and omissions, as well as other channels through which short term capital might accrue to a nation＇s balance. Based on a comprehensive comparison of year-on-year data, this paper also estimates monthly data using a simplified, indirect calculation approach. Estimates show that, despite a degree of difference in results between methods, most estimates are highly consistent for a given period. Based on monthly estimates, we conclude that turbulence in international financial markets （i.e., the United States subprime mortgage crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis） has had a major impact on China ＇s short-term capital flow.

Flow Structure and Short-Term Riverbed Evolution in Curved Flumes

River bending is the major effect responsible for bed topography and bank changes.In this study,fluid velocity(measured by a three-dimensional Doppler advanced point current meter)and bed topographical data have been collected in 40 sections of an experimental model.The whole flume was composed of an organic glass bend,upstream and downstream water tanks,two transition straight sections,a circulation pump,and a connection pipeline.Each section has been found to be characterized by a primary circulation and a small reverse circulation,with some sections even presenting three more or more circulation structures.The minimum circulation intensity has been detected in proximity to the top of the curved channel,while a region with small longitudinal velocity has been observed near the concave bank of each bend,corresponding to the flat bed formed after a short period of scouring.The maximum sediment deposition and scour depth in the presence of a uniform distribution of living flexible vegetation within 10 cm of the flume wall have been found to be smaller than those observed in the tests conducted without vegetation.

ANALYSIS OF CAPITAL FLOW WITH GIS——Two Approaches for Regional Investment in China

GIS technology has been mostly concerned with handling physical data andmodeling physical environment. However, the retirements of GIS for handling socio-economicinformation in many cases are different from those concerning phenomena in the physical environment.Analysis of capital flow among regions requires the transitions both from economic values tophysical landscape and from physical surface to economic explanation. Rapid growth of Chineseeconomy comes mainly from investment. There are two main ways for obtaining high growth ofinvestment. One is government expenditure which usually invests in regional facility and amenityblock, which is regarded as stimulus for attracting investment. The other is the creation ofinvesting center and corresponding capital source areas, both of which need the central city withthe highest growth rate of investment among regions. This paper presents the cluster areas of bothgovernment revenue and total investment, the potential situation of capital flow between centralcity Shanghai and its neighbor provinces by using Classification' and Interpolation' functions ofArcView GIS.

Hybrid Model for Short-Term Passenger Flow Prediction in Rail Transit

A precise and timely forecast of short-term rail transit passenger flow provides data support for traffic management and operation,assisting rail operators in efficiently allocating resources and timely relieving pressure on passenger safety and operation.First,the passenger flow sequence models in the study are broken down using VMD for noise reduction.The objective environment features are then added to the characteristic factors that affect the passenger flow.The target station serves as an additional spatial feature and is mined concurrently using the KNN algorithm.It is shown that the hybrid model VMD-CLSMT has a higher prediction accuracy,by setting BP,CNN,and LSTM reference experiments.All models’second order prediction effects are superior to their first order effects,showing that the residual network can significantly raise model prediction accuracy.Additionally,it confirms the efficacy of supplementary and objective environmental features.

The Policy Effects of Capital Flow on Foreign Trade： An Empirical Analysis

Today, intemational capital flows faster and faster. Thus, the supervision of capital flow becomes one of the key problems need to be solved every country, and how to supervise it is the focus in theoretical circle. Especially, China is currently facing international pressure to revalue the RMB, and a large number of free foreign capitals is flowing into China. So it is much more important to supervise it. By using the theory of foreign trade, we analyze the policy effects of foreign trade in the process of capital flow, and hope that the policy of foreign trade will exert positive effects on the supervision of capital flow.

How Demographic Structure Determines International Capital Flows

This paper investigated the relationship between demographic structure and international capital flows with panel data of 190 countries over the past 60 years＇ and projection data for the 21st century. As found, from a global perspective, the current account balance （CAB） is negatively related to the dependency ratio, and orresponding to continuous change, international eapital flows tend to move from ＂adult countries＂ to ＂aged or young countries.＂ Since the middle of the 20th century, the U.S., Europe, Japan, China, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, South Asia, West Asia and Africa took turns in exporting capital to other countries. In the 2lst century, Europe, the U.S., Australia and Singapore will keep importing capital, while China in the 2030s, and Southeast Asia in the 2050s will in turn become the main capital importers. Given the demographic structure of China and the world, the future pattern of the international capital flows requires more serious concern and responses.

Financial Vulnerability, Capital Flow Reversals, and Divergence Macro-Prudential Policies Posing Challenges to the ASEAN Banking Integration Framework （ABIF）

Against the prevailing background of an unusual capital flow reversal which is posing immense challenges to the integration of the region＇s banking sector, this study measures macro-prudential instruments affecting the implementation of an integrated financial service industry. This study is important at times when domestic and country-based financial policies are directed at competing goals. The interaction of macro-prudential policies with other policies, in particular monetary policies and micro-prudential policies is crucial to address systemic risk involved. There is growing recognition that prudential policies tools interact and coordinate with one another. To utilize multiple instruments seems to provide a greater assurance of effectiveness by tackling risk from various angles. As such, this study also assesses the interactions of the policies. The study also proposes a baseline model to capture systemic risk due to liquidity risk and risk because of currency devaluation.

Global Risk Appetite,US Economic Policy Uncertainties and Cross-Border Capital Flow

Based on the global asset portfolio model,this paper created a panel threshold model using EPFR fund data to empirically test the non-linear spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainties on cross-border capital flow for emerging economies.Our study led to the following findings:(1)When the level of global investor risk tolerance is high,rising US EPU will induce a capital inflow into emerging economies,as manifested in the“portfolio rebalancing effect.”When the level of global investor risk tolerance is below a critical threshold,this gives rise to risk aversion and emerging economies will experience net capital outflow,i.e.the“flight to quality effect”.(2)Equity fund investors have a lower risk tolerance threshold than bond fund investors.(3)According to our heterogeneity analysis,more attention should be paid to monitoring capital flow through actively managed funds,ETF funds,and retail investor funds.The economy should increase financial efficiency and economic resiliency to mitigate capital outflow pressures from the external environment.

The Effect of Net Working Capital on Jordanian Industrial and Energy Sectors＇ Net Cash Flows Employed in Operating Activities

The primary objective of the cash flow statement is to provide useful, meaningful, and relevant information about the cash receipts and cash payments of a firm during a given period of time. Decision makers can achieve extra features of the change in net assets, the firms＇ financial position （liquidity and solvency）, and the firm＇s ability to adapt to changing circumstances by affecting the amount and timing of cash flows. Cash flow statements improve comparability as they are not affected by differing accounting policies used for the same type of transactions or events. This study aims to verify the effect of net working capital （NWC）, as an indicator of a company＇s short-term liquidity or its ability to meet short-term obligations, on Jordanian industrial and energy sectors＇ net operating cash flows （NOCF）. A simple liner regression is used to test a period of 2008-2011 in order to conclude the extent of the effect on industrial and energy sectors. The study showed that there is a significant effect of the independent variable NWC on the dependent variable NOCF among industrial and energy sectors in Jordanian market. Whereas the adjusted R-squared of test is 0.854, changes in NOCF in Jordanian industrial and energy sectors have been described by NWC. Also, the study reached that the utilities and energy sector has the lowest NWC, while the mining and extraction sector has the highest. And, electrical industries sector has the lowest NOCF, while the mining and extraction sector has the highest. Moreover, the study showed that the printing and packaging sector has the lowest NWC, while the mining and extraction sector has the highest. And, glass and ceramic industries sector has the lowest NOCF, while the utilities and energy sector has the highest.

The Economic Growth with the Flows of Capital ＆ Technology

The difference of regional economy comes from capital dissymmetry, technology dissymmetry, manpower dissymmetry and the information dissymmetry. In the knowledge-based economic ages, globalization and information exceed any age of the history. It provides the new terrace for the balanced development of global economy. The flows of capital and technology improve the regional dissymmetry of production factor. By establishing circulating channels, the flows of the production factor will be enlarged. This will raise the distribution efficiency of global resources and lead to the global economic growth.

A two-stage short-term traffic flow prediction method based on AVL and AKNN techniques

Short-term traffic flow prediction is one of the essential issues in intelligent transportation systems(ITS). A new two-stage traffic flow prediction method named AKNN-AVL method is presented, which combines an advanced k-nearest neighbor(AKNN)method and balanced binary tree(AVL) data structure to improve the prediction accuracy. The AKNN method uses pattern recognition two times in the searching process, which considers the previous sequences of traffic flow to forecast the future traffic state. Clustering method and balanced binary tree technique are introduced to build case database to reduce the searching time. To illustrate the effects of these developments, the accuracies performance of AKNN-AVL method, k-nearest neighbor(KNN) method and the auto-regressive and moving average(ARMA) method are compared. These methods are calibrated and evaluated by the real-time data from a freeway traffic detector near North 3rd Ring Road in Beijing under both normal and incident traffic conditions.The comparisons show that the AKNN-AVL method with the optimal neighbor and pattern size outperforms both KNN method and ARMA method under both normal and incident traffic conditions. In addition, the combinations of clustering method and balanced binary tree technique to the prediction method can increase the searching speed and respond rapidly to case database fluctuations.

经济增长目标调整促进了资本流动吗——基于企业跨地区投资的视角

地方政府“为增长而竞争”的发展模式是造成市场分割的重要因素,那么经济增长目标下调能否缓解这一局面、促进要素资源自由流通?为了回答这一问题,本文以上市公司在异地设立子公司的行为衡量资本要素的流动性,系统考察经济增长目标下调对企业跨地区投资的影响。研究发现,经济增长目标下调能够促进资本流动,表现为经济增长目标下调显著提升了辖区内上市公司设立异地子公司的比例;影响机制分析表明,经济增长目标下调提高了政府放权意愿,降低了市场分割程度,进而促进了企业跨地区投资;进一步的异质性分析揭示,在地区行政壁垒较低、行业竞争程度较高及民营企业样本中,经济增长目标下调对企业跨地区投资的促进作用更加明显。本文丰富了制度性政府行为影响资源配置的相关研究,为当前推进全国统一大市场建设提供了直接的政策思路。

资金流对乡村产业振兴的影响

基于2006—2019年全国722个脱贫县和1058个非贫困县的非平衡面板数据,构建乡村产业振兴指数,实证检验了金融资金流动对乡村产业振兴的影响效果及作用机制。研究发现:金融资金流入能显著促进乡村产业振兴,且对脱贫县的促进效果强于非贫困县;金融资金流动主要通过带动“实物流”“技术流”和“人才流”发挥促进作用,实现乡村生产体系、经营体系及产业体系的现代化,进而推动乡村产业振兴;新产业新业态发展的需求端、普惠金融发展的供给端和精准扶贫政策实施的政策端均能对促进作用产生正向效应。

服务创新网络中企业社会资本如何影响创新绩效——知识流耦合与知识共创的链式中介作用

基于社会网络理论与知识基础观,构建“企业社会资本—知识流耦合—知识共创—服务创新绩效”的链式中介模型,运用层次回归分析法对405份企业样本进行分析。研究发现:结构性、认知性、关系性社会资本均对服务创新绩效有显著正向影响,且影响程度依次减弱;知识流耦合、知识共创在企业社会资本与服务创新绩效之间起链式中介作用。研究可进一步夯实创新网络、社会资本理论基础,揭示企业社会资本通过知识作用路径影响服务创新绩效的内在机制,为服务企业提高创新绩效提供参考。

高技术产业集聚对区域创新创业活跃度的影响

高技术产业集聚具有知识溢出效应、技术引领效应和创新驱动效应,对提高区域创新创业活跃度具有重要意义。基于2011—2021年中国278个地级及以上城市面板数据,选用双向固定效应模型研判高技术产业集聚对区域创新创业活跃度的影响及作用机制。研究结果显示:高技术产业集聚对区域创新创业活跃度的影响存在先增大后减小的倒“U”型特征。中介机制分析表明,高技术产业集聚能够通过缓解融资约束、加速人力资本流动和加强环境规制,对区域创新创业活跃度产生先增大后减小的非线性影响。异质性分析显示,高技术产业集聚对东部地区、沿海城市和资源型城市区域创新创业活跃度的影响效应较为显著。空间分析表明,高技术产业集聚对邻近区域创新创业活跃度的空间溢出效应表现为倒“U”型特征。基于此,政府部门及相关企业应营造高技术产业集聚新环境、完善要素配置新机制、定制差异化区域发展新方案,以促进区域创新创业活跃度提升。

数字金融是否促进了县域产业结构升级?——基于网商银行进入农村市场的准自然实验

近年来,数字金融在农村市场发展迅猛,有望成为推动县域产业结构升级的新动能,为推动我国县域产业结构升级提供了新的思路。本文以网商银行进入农村市场作为一项准自然实验,利用2013—2020年的县域数据构建多期双重差分模型,实证分析数字金融对县域产业结构升级的影响。研究发现:(1)数字金融显著促进了县域产业结构升级;(2)数字金融通过发挥数字技术优势,引导资金更多地流向第三产业来促进县域产业结构升级;数字金融通过促进消费结构升级来促进县域产业结构升级;(3)数字金融对南方县、非贫困县、传统信贷投入高的县产业结构升级的促进效果更大。上述研究结论为数字金融时代促进县域产业结构升级、推进乡村振兴战略的实现提供了重要的经验证据和政策启示。

地缘政治风险对汇率波动的影响——国际资本流动的中介效应

在当前复杂的国际环境中,地缘政治风险正成为影响宏观经济变动和全球外汇市场价格波动的重要因素,是中国人民币国际化进程不可忽视的风险来源。以2000年1月至2022年12月43个国家面板数据为研究样本,运用固定效应模型实证研究政治局势不稳定对汇率波动的影响与机制。实证结果表明,地缘政治风险显著提高汇率波动水平,地缘政治风险指数增加1%,汇率波动性增加0.984%;短期跨境资本流动是地缘政治风险影响汇率波动的重要机制;地缘政治风险对汇率波动的增加作用具有异质性,对非OECD成员国的增加作用较OECD成员国更为显著,对欧美地区的增加作用较亚非拉地区汇率波动更大,在2008年金融危机后的增加作用更加明显;前期地缘政治风险与前期汇率波动均会显著影响当期汇率波动,地缘政治风险对汇率波动的增加作用具有持续性。国际政治局势不稳定对于汇率波动的影响正在逐渐长期化,在此背景下,研究结论为通过维持政治稳定性减少资本流动降低汇率波动风险,推进人民币国际化进程提供了经验证据。

全球经济政策不确定性对国际资本异常流动的影响

全球经济政策不确定性上升会提高国际投资的风险和成本,加上“外国劣势”的影响,投资者会减少对外投资,从而使国际资本出现本土化倾向的异常流动。采用24个发达经济体、25个新兴和发展中经济体2005年第三季度至2022年第四季度的跨国面板数据,将国际资本异常流动分为外逃、撤回、激增、中断4种类型,运用Probit模型分析发现:在样本期间,发达经济体的资本异常流动少于新兴和发展中经济体;全球经济政策不确定性上升会降低资本外逃和激增的概率,并增加资本撤回和中断的概率;全球经济政策不确定性对发达经济体4种异常流动的影响都显著,而对新兴和发展中经济体只显著影响了资本外逃和激增;全球经济政策不确定性会显著影响其他投资的4种异常流动,并显著影响直接投资的外逃和激增、证券投资的外逃和撤回;金融开放水平较低时,金融开放会强化全球经济政策不确定性对国际资本异常流动的影响,但当金融开放水平较高时,全球经济政策不确定性的影响不再显著。因此,应建立国际资本异常流动监测平台,完善国际投资监管机制,并积极推进高水平金融开放。

资本投入取值:取存量还是流量,用资产还是资本?

资本投入使用资产、固定资产还是资本、资本回报,这对全要素生产率的计算结果影响甚大。本文分析学术界关于资本投入的主要代理变量之后认为,资本投入代理变量的选择应当回归资本的原始含义使用资本流量指标。企业的现金流量表提供了资本投入、劳动投入、产出的当期流量的会计核算结果。使用当期流量指标能将全要素生产率各主要变量的计算口径统一为基于现金流量核算的当期流量,计量单位亦能统一为货币价值量。建立在统一会计核算制度基础上的全要素生产率的计算结果,可以实现同一时期同一主体计算结果的可比。这一建议能使企业、产业、区域、国家的全要素生产率计算方法统一起来,而且这种建立在定期披露的会计核算数据基础之上的全要素生产率及其变化的计算结果也能直接用来指导经济领域的实际工作。